omg... what Janet Yellen *JUST* Said

oh boy Janet Yellen just spoke I want to

give you a breakdown of what she said

but also a little sneak peek of some of

the analysis we did in the course member

live stream this morning oh my gosh

cocacola Sherwin Williams you name it

just the couple that we analyzed this

morning we do a lot of analysis they

can't get prices up now they're actively

complaining that they're struggling to

hold on to the price increases that they

had in 2022 the only place they can brag

about raising prices are in places like

turkey and Argentina where you have

basically currencies that are worthless

and hyperinflation it's crazy it's just

such a pisser what what's a pisser is

that we know that the forward inflation

is like not there the forward looking

stuff we we had a lot okay the going

forward stuff is not there but it's

going to take so long for normal

Americans to feel that most people are

still going to go what do you mean

forward inflation is has gone out things

sound expensive to me that's most people

unfortunately the longer what do you

mean goes on the longer the fed's like

well I'll show you then you don't

believe inflation's going away I show

you inflation's going away how do how

does that feel in your stock portfolio

you like that inflation huh like that's

what it feels like so then you get jny

Yellen who strikes like the totally

opposite tone right this is the opposite

tone so this is now remember Yellen is a

figure of the Biden admin so she has to

go from being the uh fed uh where they

have a dual Mandate of Maximum

employment and stable prices to now I'm

Biden's puppet so there is something

though that she said that I think she

means outside of the political realm and

that's what I want to talk about in this

because it's what I believe now I'm not

looking for confirmation bias but I want

to be transparent about this I highly

believe this and if you've been watching

this channel for a while you already

know I believe this she said the

following quote longer term yield Trends

are still at play so what does that mean

well what that means is that with an

aging demographic and capitalism that

has led to massive Innovation okay all

big words basically what's been going on

for the last 40 years

is probably still what we're going to

see after we get through the inflation

bump okay let me try to clarify that in

a different way and the easiest way to

do that is just by drawing a very very

high tech photo okay if inflation since

the Paul vulker era has basically done

that then we printed money to the moon

and we did this uh it should be about

half as high there we go now we're

seeing this it is entirely possible that

this trend of continued disinflation

continues potentially even deflation and

that we are just right here on the ride

of going back to that longer run Trend

this is really interesting for a

treasury secretary to say because to me

it doesn't actually have anything to do

with the Biden Administration today this

is like the 10year out game plan which

is he whoa whoa whoa look we got to be

careful here because we are still in an

environment where likely interest rates

will be lower in the long term than they

are or have been pre-co now that's crazy

to think about because pre-co we were

worried about the effective lower bound

the elb the 0% oh my gosh if rates are

zero how do we stimulate the economy if

there's a recession

well you could print a lot of money or

you could potentially go negative but oh

that could cause some real big

distortions that's what Europe was

fighting Europe had negative interest

rates on their savings account before

this crisis and it's so hard to think

that oh my gosh you're right just four

years ago we were dealing with negative

interest rates we just printed money to

Oblivion now that in my opinion

reiterates why I say in 10 years mark

your calendar for it and if I'm wrong I

want you to tell me I'll still have beer

with you whether I'm right or wrong I'm

not going to go big ego or you know

disappear if I'm wrong I'm going to do

my best I think we're going to see

mortgage rates at 1.88% in 10 years from

now and I think therefore one of the

best investments you can make today is

hard assets yeah stocks to some extent

as well but they're extremely volatile

you should definitely diversify to real

estate in my opinion not personalized

Financial advice so I'm a big believer

that right now I'm like how much real

estate can for example you get your

hands on because when that happens in

the the future and rates go down to you

know potentially lower than where they

were in the past you'll look back in 10

years and be like oh hot damn I'm glad I

got my hands on some real estate or at

least you started laying the foundations

now right maybe you take the new vers

Pro courses maybe you invest in house

Haack with the fundraise closing on the

first whatever and you learn or you get

involved in investing in real estate

that's potentially that's my idea if you

don't believe that the longer term

Trends are in play that's okay again we

can still be friends there are plenty of

people who believe that what just

happened with coid broke the longer run

Trend they believe that this right here

is broken the reason they believe this

is broken is because of deglobalization

that is the argument the idea is that

okay well we are basically trying to get

away from working with all these other

countries because Supply chains broke

during coid but now I think we realize

wait a minute we're better

off working together with other

countries like for example Tesla in

Mexico right that's an example of what

we call friend Shoring and guess what

Janet Yellen talked about today friend

Shoring in fact she says look we're

still overly reliant on China for clean

energy but her visit to China she

believes went extremely well and that we

could build a partnership with China and

that their GDP is probably below Trend

while ours is above Trend and we can

actually work together on on a strong

economic future the problem is she

believes China needs to get more

involved and she's not wrong in helping

us on the international front like Hello

China where are you with beating up

Putin and where are you with you know

helping with Israel and Palestine

nowhere to be found because wow they're

worried about their own economy and

their own people and problems instead

but then I guess you could say we should

too and it gets messy that's where you

get political and really messy really

fast but anyway point is what I've been

saying for years years and I believe

this is we don't get deglobalization we

get what I call reglobalization which is

okay we had so much demand we broke

Supply chains how can we make sure that

doesn't happen again by diversifying our

supply chains but also by making them

way more efficient this is why sales at

asml exploded because all the chip

manufacturers are like we need more

machines just in case there's a rush to

make more chips we can do it it's kind

of like what you're seeing now with TSM

where they're like we have endless

demand for these AI chips we just can't

make them enough for

NVIDIA crazy crazy things to think about

uh so this is still building out those

Supply chains and that's why those h100s

sell for like seven times the cost to

manufacture them because they're so

highly in demand and we just don't have

enough of them but anyway I thought this

was very interesting from Janny Yellen

not only did she talk about these longer

term yield Trends still at play I think

that was probably one of the big p

takeaways for me I'm like oh my gosh I

can't believe somebody just said that

like this to me is like that's that's

been what I've been believing now you

might be like well Kevin you're nuts and

Janet Yellen for sure is nuts and that's

okay but at least it's fascinating to

see Janet yell and take that sort of

point of view because nobody has taken

that yet people have been afraid to say

that because they think that's going to

unanchor inflation expectations and

cause inflation expectations to

Skyrocket which ultimately end up

causing problems now I did listen to

Christine lagard even though I covered

some of this this morning I went back

and I listened to her speech this

morning she is confident that on the

measures going forward inflation is on

the right trajectory now when it comes

to you know are they going to cut soon

no but in terms of the trajectory she's

pretty confident and Jerome Powell seems

this way as well to where they're kind

of like all right now we're just going

to keep it here until basically

everybody uh agrees that we've done

enough the concern is are they going to

overdo it and this has been the concern

for years and the potential where we're

now starting to see some higher default

and autos and credit cards is that y'all

going to go too far and then of course

you have this idea that well what about

the inverted yield curve Jan yell and

has something to say about that as well

she's like look the reason she doesn't

think the inverted yield curve which I

have not heard this argument before the

reason she doesn't believe that the

inverted yield curve the 102 yield curve

actually signals a recession is because

you're seeing long term uh yields and

short-term yields rise almost equally in

all developed countries but then people

argue okay fine well then we're facing a

global recession that is possible we

could be facing a global recession

totally possible so I wanted to fact

check that a little bit I looked at the

German bond yields and the curves we

didn't actually invert in Germany back

in the 2008 recession we had no

inversion so maybe not necessarily wrong

about that but look at this wait a

second we barely barely inverted in the

2008 recession in a America right here

see this little drop right below here

barely an inversion now look at the

inversion we had over here it's a

cluster F minus 100 basis points it's

basically like Paul vulker over here

this actually was Paul vulker this was

leading up this was sort of the first

wave of Paul vulker this was the second

wave of Paul vulker so it's really

interesting it's like wait a minute the

2008 recession was really bad but the

inversion was nothing now we got a deep

inversion and and when did that last

happen in the 80s but in the early 80s

the early ' 80s recession wasn't that

bad real estate didn't even go negative

so it's kind of like what but anyway so

so that's just what Janie Yellen thinks

again we just have to kind of put our

head hats on and go okay what whatever

Janie so anyway uh she thinks that our

economy is going to prove to have grown

by 2 and a half% for 2023 she thinks

Americans are worried about the economy

but they still feel resilient she wants

to see real incomes growing wants to see

more people get into EV production and

Manufacturing because she thinks there's

a lot of money to be made there and for

individuals to see growth in their real

incomes wants to work with China uh

doesn't see major potential risk factors

from the uh Israel and Palestinian

issues that we're seeing now uh this all

happened at the same time as John Kirby

was at the White House saying that

Russian the Russian military is now

executing soldiers who refuse to follow

orders that's a totally different topic

but anyway she believes that the econ

will have higher yields for longer again

the higher for longer that we've seen

But believes maybe that's okay because

the econom is doing better so all of

this in her opinion cycling to the soft

Landing narrative and I want to kind of

zoom in to my thoughts on this and go

okay all right Janet Yellen not a

surprise there's definitely political

bias there let's try to extract from

everything she said what's interesting

okay well one thing that's interesting

is when we look at the yield Curves in

2008

wasn't that bad like I would have rather

had the early 80s recession than the

2008 recession and we are looking a lot

more similar to the early 80s recession

via the inversion of the yield curve

than than

2008 if somebody needed to tell me some

good news I'll take that okay second

thing this this argument about

potentially going back to this long-term

trend of declining interest rates I

think it's really critical for us to

consider that as we're building out our

businesses going forward because if

you're a business owner if you're an

investor if you're somebody getting

started if you're trying to get educated

I think you probably want to think to

yourself what can I do today to position

myself to be in a great place in a low

interest rate environment again if that

is what we're heading back to what can

you do now to set yourself up for that

licenses business development foundation

building I call it where do you see us

being right and then of course if we are

truly in this oh no everything's going

to De globalize you know GE geopolitics

are too hot rates are going to stay way

higher for way longer I mean don't get

me wrong it's possible rates are going

to be higher for the next 2 or 3 years

but I'm talking 10 years out right so

again how can you milk the yields now to

prep for what will eventually likely be

an even lower yield uh in personally to

me that's building businesses and

expanding uh businesses around real

asset-based businesses that's why I'm

getting all the licenses I could get my

hands on that's why we're building house

sack and building out the teams so that

we can create businesses that are going

to flourish for the next 50 60 70 years

right that's my goal I mean I'm 31 so

I'm trying to look past these next two

or three years because probably aren't

going to be easy uh although I think

once we have Peak rates set in uh we

we'll start seeing a little bit more

enthusiasm again in the stock market

anyway there you have it thank you so

much for watching make sure to check out

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and now now the

disclaimer even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is neither personalized Financial

nor real estate advice for you it's not

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice tailored to you this is

generalized perspective and this video

shall not be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security it is not a

research report I personally operate and

manage and actively man well personally

operate an actively managed ETF uh and

so therefore we could benefit from

stonks going up and personally own

stocks in that positive bullish biased

world as well anyway how's that for a

messy disclaimer people keep telling me

to film it I'm like well it could change

every time like I might have to show you

the creeper you know how am I supposed

to record

[Music]

that

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin pafra there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your

take