**Massive Stock Market Short Squeeze**

Holy smokes, are we back and is it time

to buy the dip? In this video, we're

going to go through exactly whether or

not we are back and whether or not it is

time to buy the dip. Spoiler alert,

every single dip this year has been a

buy the dip opportunity. I kid you not.

Liberation over here. And I remember,

you see this double dip right here at

the end of April. I made videos going,

"Folks, set trailing stops. Don't be

dumping right now because we might be

about to rocket ship up and trailing

stops would be the perfect way because

you'll never get stopped out if you're

on this kind of run. And people at the

time are like, Kevin, you're just making

videos to try to hed your bets and cover

both sides. Like, no. Here's the

evidence as to why we're saying this.

Okay, that was then. You can watch the

videos that are there. But take a look

at this. Every single dip has been

bought so far. So, the dip we had at the

end of July, super minor. The dip we had

in September, super minor. The October

dip, super minor. This November dip has

been a little bit more frustrating

because it's been about 3 weeks. You

know, we're about 3 weeks of like down

right before Halloween. We started, we

hit all-time highs right before

Halloween and then it's been down, down,

down, down, down. Why has it been down?

It's been fear because of the AI bubble.

It's been fear because of private credit

and liquidity stress. And these are all

reasonable fears. In fact, I have to say

the thing that makes me the most nervous

right now is what I'm seeing with AI

spending in the bond market. In fact,

take a look at this chart right here.

This chart is disgusting. So, this is a

pretty busy chart cuz I wrote all over

it. I apologize. Just ignore the text

for a moment. Look at the little red

lines. So, the red lines show you bond

issuance. Okay? So, on the left side

over here, I have 20. So, $20 billion of

bond issuance. And you can see it's kind

of rare, you know, after 2020 that you

see these lines, but they pop up. This

arrow right here shows you the chat GPT

moment. And you basically had no debt

financing for over a year after that

chat GPT moment. And then in 2024, like

the second half of 2024, you started

seeing, you know, a couple 20 billion

deals, a 20 billion, maybe a 12 billion

deal, a little bit at the beginning of

2025, right? But now, what are we seeing

over here? Every month, boom, boom,

boom. And you total it up, it's actually

$88 billion of debt financing on the

right side. So, it's no surprise that

you're seeing credit default swaps get

more expensive for Meta and Oracle

because people are like, man, dude,

we're all of a sudden taking on a whole

lot more debt than we used to. Because

any single one of these lines on the

right is more debt financing for AI than

we've had at any of these other lines on

the left. Maybe with the exception of

just that one right there, but basically

you've got three of these sandwiched in

a row on the right side. And it's really

indicative of wo why all of a sudden are

we taking on so much debt? So I wrote a

few notes here. I wrote, "Right now,

we're at the phase of the economy where

as long as debt issuance continues, we

can keep this growth going. And that's

good and it's bad. It's good because it

means for right now, it doesn't

necessarily mean we have to roll over.

It just means like, hey, like that's a

whole lot of debt." I mean, I think

Bucko over here, literally Bucko Capital

Bloke, writes, "David's saying the quiet

part out loud. This administration has

made some catastrophically bad economic

decisions and he's right. They backed

themselves into a corner and cannot

afford to go backwards on AI. This is in

response to a David Saxs tweet which

says, "According to today's Wall Street

Journal, AI related investment accounts

for half of GDP growth. A reversal would

risk recession. We cannot afford to go

backwards." Full article. In other

words, if as like if we stop seeing this

AI spending, we could end up seeing a

recession right here. A reversal could

risk a recession. Okay, great. But if

we're relying on AI for not going into a

recession, then what we're really saying

is we're relying on debt. Because in the

last 3 months, all of this AI boom has

been funded by debt. And that's really

scary because Ray Dallio put it really

well. He did this like 10-minute segment

with CNBC. I'm going to save you the

time. Okay. Basically, the last like 30

seconds are all that matters. And he's

like, "Well, you know, uh yeah, we're

definitely in a bubble, but uh you know

what it takes to uh make a bubble popup?

You got to prick it. And you know what

pricks the bubble pop? People dashing

for cash. I I can't do a Ray Dalio

accent, but basically when people need

cash, that's when the bubble pops. Okay.

Well, what is that? Nobody knows. But

what we know is what I wrote on this

chart, which is that debt issuance is

going extreme right now. That's not

necessarily to say it's going to stop,

but we're starting to see that

nervousness, right? We're seeing that

nervousness with Blue Owl. Blue Owl is

like freaking out. Look at what's

happening with the private credit

companies. Blue Owl backed the $30

billion Meta deal, which I thought was

brilliant. Like if you want exposure to

the AI, you know, boom, without like

with getting a good valuation, in my

opinion, Meta's at a good valuation, and

you don't as want as much of the debt

risk, Meta is really interesting because

they just financed a $30 billion deal

where they have the opportunity to

cancel their leases every four years and

pay like a nominal early termination

fee. Guess who holds the bag? Blue Owl.

Guess out of these private credit funds,

which is performing the worst? Blue Owl.

You know, it's down like almost half. It

stock is almost h haveved in value. The

only thing that's doing slightly worse

than Blue Owl in the credit uh in the

private credit space right now is well

uh Grinder. Grinder. I guess Grinder is

not really in the private credit credit

space, but what I should say is what is

doing worse than Blue Owl is Grinder.

Grinder has probably the smallest PP

right now. little pee pe.

>> And that's because their executives are

literally getting margin called because

they leveraged up their own personal

shares. And so their personal shares are

getting revoked. They're getting seized

and they're getting liquidated. So, who

knows? Maybe there's an opportunity to

buy the shrink on uh Grinder. But that's

probably a topic for a different video.

Maybe even a different channel that's

like only meet Kevin or something. But

anyway, I mean private credit's

obviously an issue, right? We see the

private thericolor collapse is right

here. We actually topped after

thericolor uh collapse. First brands

collapse is here. The crypto1010

liquidation is here. And then of course

we have multiple other liquidations

following that. Now of course the CEOs

and the executives at these companies,

they don't want you to think that there

are any kind of issues or cockroaches.

Uh, in fact, you literally have the Blue

Owl CEO saying, quote, "The point being

like somehow by just talking about this

enough, people have worked themselves

into this imaginary world there's some

where there's some bigger potential

credit problem." That's what the CEO is

saying. And then, of course, you have a

list of all these companies like

collapsing in private credit. And I kind

of think it's disingenuous because it's

every single time people go, "Guys,

everything is fine. You should know that

everything is not fine. It's almost

every single time. Like go into on this

list, you have the uh Sa Hotel

bankruptcy, right? Well, here is the Sa

hotel bankruptcy piece in the Wall

Street Journal, front page of the Wall

Street Journal today. And in it, they

literally do, where was it? It was an

all hands meeting. Anyway, they talk

about doing this all hands-on deck

meeting. Here it is. Uh employees were

summoned to an all hands meeting.

Managers expressed optimism that Sa

would soon be on solid ground. In other

words, guys, everything is fine.

Literally, literally, look at this. Look

at this. There's nothing to worry about,

says Nick Sa regional vice president

said during the meeting. We just have to

let everybody know that there are some

problems, but don't worry, everything is

fine. What happens 9 days later? They go

bankrupt [laughter]

every single time. It's like you you got

a company going, "Guys, don't withdraw

your money. Everything's okay." Bankrupt

within a couple weeks after that. It's

like the kiss of death. It's almost like

saying everything is fine is the kiss of

death itself. I don't know. That could

be like causation without correlation.

[laughter]

But anyway, the point is everything is

not fine. Like there actually are

private credit issues. And yes, our GDP

without artificial intelligence would

probably be in a recession. And what is

propping up artificial intelligence

right now? Debt.

Okay, now we're going to keep talking

about that, but first I want to talk to

you about this bounce that we had today.

Because the bounce today, I think, is

heavily driven by an unwinding of a

massive amount of shorts that we saw go

into triple leveraged uh options and

position taking on SEQs.

So, the SEQs are the triple leveraged

short for the QQQ index. and volumes or

flows into the SQS on Thursday were

massive. Absolutely massive. Like $12

billion of volume into this that those

buys had to get unwound today. And there

was actually a really bullish signal

this morning. Well, there were two

really bullish signals this morning that

suggested today could be a green day.

The first really bullish signal was Jim

Kramer going bearish. 9 hours ago, Jim

Kramer said there's no reason futures

should be higher. This is the curse of

the bulls. And then I'm like, all right,

that's a bullish catalyst uh right

there.

>> Bullish catalyst.

>> This is why I call Jim Kramer Kim

Kramer. It's like Karen Kramer. Kim

Kramer cast out most bullish catalyst

you could ask for. But there was

something else. Yes. And this is not a

pitch. This is to teach you.

In the alpha report this morning, I

said, "Look, today is a test for the

market." Okay, the test for the market

today is can we hold 595 and can we get

to 607? This these are copy and paste

lines from the alpha report. And I want

you to see what was in today's alpha

report. Look what I wrote. Thursday,

Bitcoin drops before a bit a big dump.

Friday, Bitcoin starts lower and the Q's

head lower. Today, Bitcoin is $2,000

higher than where it was on Friday.

Think about that. It was the first time

we actually saw Bitcoin higher. Usually

Bitcoin was leading the market lower

over the last few weeks, last three

weeks almost certainly. Bitcoin's almost

always been lower, lower, lower, lower,

and then the Q's go lower. And so I

literally wrote hopefully uh this is a

test essentially for positivity for the

Q's today. If I had any guess today,

Bitcoin starting up 2K versus Friday is

a great sign. So fingers crossed the Q's

rally and gets to 607.

That would be a good sign of strength

and reiterates by the dip. Folks, don't

look at the Q's today and look at the

numbers. Okay, let's look at the Q's and

look at the numbers. You can't make this

SH9T up, boys and girls. From 595,

literally, literally from 595, you

rocket ship. And look at where we ended

today. We ended right here. We had a

high of 60668.

Look at that. That's the 607 line right

there. Look how close. It's not 100%

perfect. That would be like crystal

ball. But I have to say, Bitcoin gave us

the signal. We pointed out the signal in

the alpha report this morning and we

went lineto line today. Now, the

question is, will it last? Well, whether

or not it lasts has to do with, first of

all, we got our short covering. Great.

That's great. that could be out of the

system now because we were oversold

there for a while. But whether or not

this lasts all comes down to the

capacity for this chart to keep going.

Debt, boys and girls. And there's a

second issue, too, and it has to do with

jobs. We'll talk about that in just a

moment. But bond issuance, look, we're

at the phase where as long as debt

issuance continues, AI growth can

continue. That's my opinion. As long as

we keep getting debt issuance, the debt

uh the AI bubble can keep going. Now, if

labor stalls and debt issuance slows,

private credit, liquidity crisis,

whatever, we are gloriously and royally

effed.

Now, I want to be clear, we do not want

a recession. Recessions are very

painful. Many people lose their jobs.

They are hell. But things would get

cheaper. Stocks would get cheaper.

Houses maybe. It depends on where as to

whether or not they would get cheaper.

Mostly because houses in many parts of

the country, not a foregone conclusion

that they're going to get cheaper

because we have so vastly underbuilt.

The New York Times actually had a piece

on this this morning that we are so

underbuilding compared to historical

pre208 averages. We are still

underbuilding today. You know, our poor

guy Graham, he made this like podcast

here where he laments how horrible it is

to build homes in LA. And I watch that

and I go, I know. And that is why I love

buying real estate in some of these blue

states because they're so with

their building policies that all they do

is drive housing prices up. So if you

want to hedge your investments and

diversify into real estate by hedging

whatever other investments you make, one

of the best investments is literally

investing in the stupidity of

politicians. What is one of the best

ways to invest in the stupidity of

superleft democratic real estate

policies?

Buying in real estate markets that are

exposed to those sort of political

thinkings. [laughter]

So the more liberal the policies, the

more you want to buy real estate there

because they're so incapable of

building. They just drive housing prices

up, which sucks for people who want to

get in. But if you know the game, you

just go whatever.

It's crazy. I'm not saying any of that

is good. I'm just making an observation.

I'm here to make observations about the

market. That's my job. Okay? And again,

I don't want So that's why I say like,

yeah, in a recession, things get

cheaper, but not necessarily because

housing has been underbuilt and loans

are pretty good relative to what you see

in 200 uh what you saw in 2006 and 7.

That was pretty bad. Six and seven. Um,

you know, loans are pretty stable. You

know, there's some areas of the market,

you know, FHA on the fringes and some of

the the some of the overbuilt markets

that are going to have problems. We know

that. But, you know, generally, you

don't want a recession because you're

going to lose your job. And so even if

things get cheaper, you're just not

gonna have the ability to finance new

real estate or or stocks, which sucks,

right? So therefore, this sudden

concentration of debt, right? This is

pretty sudden. This is a sudden

concentration of debt makes me a little

bit nervous. And it either means we have

to spend more to keep the Ponzi going,

so to speak, which is, you know, to stay

ahead of China or whatever, or worse,

oo, which you know, for a World of

Warcraft reference is out of mana. and

for us means out of money. If companies

are out of money, this is a really bad

sign. Uh, and it doesn't mean the

market's going to tank tomorrow, but it

means we're we're like possibly on the

last innings, which isn't great. Now, TS

Lombard did a had a little piece on the

supply session regarding labor, and

we're going to touch on this briefly.

Uh, but something that I do want to

touch on briefly as well is this. Like

one of the things that I like about

artificial intelligence uh and

artificial intelligence companies is I

want to look for companies that have low

exposure to these crazy debts. That's

why I like what Meta is doing. That's

why I've hated Oracle. We went back and

looked at our analysis on Oracle and we

saw that the analysis that we did on

this channel on Oracle where I said way

too much debt, stay away from Oracle was

on on September 10th, my dad's birthday.

Do you know what else September 10th

was? Can you look at this chart and

guess what September 10th was? September

10th right here, folks. The top of that

green line. I analyze Oracle. I go,

"Guys, danger, danger, danger. Watch

out. This is a bad fundamental play."

You know, cuz you could analyze stocks

in a few different ways. Fundamentals,

momentum, right? And then you have to

have a strategy associated with that. A

good fundamental buy, you could hold for

10 years. a momentum play, you can't

hold for 10 years. You you swing in and

out of that, right? But fundamentally,

this was a bad sign. So, you just want

to stay away from it. Now, 200 divided

by 345 means this puppy right here is

down 42%.

Since we did an analysis on this channel

makes sense. Why? Because of debt. And

this is why I say stay away from debt.

Now, one of the things that we're doing

because we're going to release our AI

app this this week. Uh it'll be coming

soon for December, but we're going to

start selling our AI app, which is

really exciting. The rein the

househack.com or reinvest.co uh AI.

We're calling it the reinvest AI. Uh and

we're our our vision is that we're going

to sell 2-year subscriptions and

lifetime subscriptions as a founding

membership. And the benefit of that is

it's twofolded. one people who sign up,

they get in and they lock in a price

where we think the product's going to be

worth 200 bucks a month, you know, once

the product is fully developed in about

a year when we think the product will be

fully developed. And we'll keep adding

updates obviously, but people who get in

now, they get a lifetime subscription at

one price, which will be a fraction of,

you know, $200 a month, right? It'll be

way less than that. Uh, you help us

build the beta out, but what does that

do? It lets us grow without debt. So you

as a foundation member, maybe you know a

few thousand of you join as foundation

members, you get the benefit of having

lifetime access to a net worth

exploding

uh hunter in real estate, our reinvest

AI, right? I mean it makes you

competitive in real estate. We'll talk

more about that separately. But what it

does is it also injects capital into our

company which then lets us reinvest into

the artificial intelligence without

debt. So it's win-win. People who join

get rewarded with the foundation uh uh

pricing in a year. You're going to look

back and be like, "Oh my gosh, it's so

much more expensive and it's so much

better, you know, a year from now, but

I've locked in this lifetime access,

right? It's not for sale right now. I'm

not trying to pitch it." The reason I'm

saying this is because I am putting my

money and my company's money where our

mouth is. We don't want to finance our

AI with debt. So, we want to sell a

really good service and give people

lifetime access and then use that

capital, keep growing the product, which

is already I think very good. Like day

one, I think it's already going to be

like, "Oh, this is kind of cool. You're

like literally countrywide throughout

the entire United States able to tell us

if a deal is, you know, likely to be a

deal in the eyes of Kevin or not,

nationwide. This is really cool. Now,

point of that is staying away from debt

because that debt bubble rolls over when

jobs roll over. Okay, so we're going to

talk about jobs. Let me just quickly

disclaim this just so I don't get in

trouble with the SEC. If you want to

invest in Houseack or Reinvest.co, co.

It's the same company. Yeah, you still

get a 5% yield, but make sure you read

the offering circular by going to

houseack.com or reinvest.co. This video

is not a solicitation. I'm using this as

an example. Oh, great. Michael Bur just

tweeted. Nvidia emailed a memo to Wall

Street sellside analyst to push back on

my arguments. I stand by my analysis.

Obviously, the full analysis does not

fit in a tweet. I will release my

timeline. The first post, the heretics

guide to AI is up now. It's a very light

read. Basically, all right, he's going

to double down on the depreciation play.

Look,

we have already addressed this with

Michael Bur. Remember, I said this last

week. I said, Michael Bur is not right

yet.

Then the market sold off and people

like, Kevin, it sounds like Michael Bur

is right. No, Michael Bur is has a

depreciation play that will take a while

to play out. What you need for the

Michael Bur depreciation play to play

out is either the labor market to roll

over, the debt cycle to stop, or both.

Then the depreciation play will play

out. Okay, so Michael Bur is like a

future problem. It's not a today

problem, it's a future problem. So what

else is part of this today problem?

Well, the supply session and the Fed. So

what do we have over here? Ordinarily,

the Fed would be chomping at the bit to

cut rates because of the Phillips curve,

right? because our payrolls are trending

near zero. The problem is right now

we're not at zero. In fact, if you look

at where we sit right now on payrolls

growth, I made this little chart right

here. Our 3-month average on Bureau of

Labor Statistics provided payrolls is

62,000. Our six-month average is 59,000

and our year-to- date average is 76,000.

So, we're not near zero. Once you hit

like zero, six months later, it tends to

get even worse. So once you go to zero

for six months, it's bad. You're

probably going into a recession, but

we're not at zero yet. And so I kind of

disputed a little bit about this article

where they're like, "Oh no, zero is this

is bad. We're trending towards zero."

We're not there yet. Now, of course,

there are arguments that the stock

market will fall, you know, the stock

market following could cause

participation to rise as early retirees

come back. We already know that old

news. There's also this idea that oh,

you know, because the foreignb born

labor supply is declining, native born

is going up. But this is apparently

misleading because of the way they

collect the data. Like they collect

survey responses and if they're just

getting fewer from one, they assume the

other side is higher. It's like totally

skewed. Just ignore it. It's a bunch of

crap. Doesn't matter. So, the point of

bringing this up is that right now it's

unlikely we're going to see inflation

like we saw in the 1967 low landing

because back then we had this massive

worker shortage. Okay, so let's phrase

this clearly to simplify this. What's

bad for inflation is what happened in

1967 and 2021, which is having two

openings per every one worker. Okay,

right now we're the opposite. We have

less than one opening per every one

worker. So, this means we're not likely

to see an inflation problem. They don't

mention that in this article, so I'm

sort of like leaning on this article to

say, look at this chart. Here's why it's

wrong. We don't have an inflation

problem right now. Yes, prices have gone

up a lot, but we don't actually have an

inflation problem. We have a bigger risk

that the Fed is going to make a policy

mistake by not cutting rates. That's I

think why markets are also enthusiastic

because Waller said, "Hey, we're going

to go for the cut." Mary Dailyaly today

is like, "Hey, we're going to go for the

cut." So, where does that leave us now?

We have a lot of information here. We

know what's going on with the AI debt

bubble, the recession, stock performance

and movements. We know to stay away from

the debt plays. Talked a little bit

about real estate, talked a little bit

about labor. How do we put all of this

puzzle together? Here's how. First, we

need a whole 605 on the cues. Okay,

that's pretty important. Then no more

private credit pain also very important.

Any kind of shock here, shock would be

very bad right now. Okay, so hold 605 in

the cues. No more credit pain. Great.

After that, we really want strong retail

sales. uh will likely get because people

don't stop spending until they lose

their jobs. And then we go into

um the D10 Fed meeting with a 98% chance

of a Fed cut. So far, we're climbing

over 76% because Mary Dailyaly and

Waller pushing for that rate cut, which

is great. This is you turn the odds of a

Fed rate uh uh hold, which on Friday

morning, if you watch my video Friday

morning, I'm like, this is actually

good. Like Waller's coming out trying to

talk this up. Remember what we said last

week, you need the Fed to talk up the

chance of a rate cut. They have until

this Friday to do that. So between now

and Friday, talk up the rate cut. Get us

to 98%. That's bullish. Strong retail

sales we'll likely get. That'll be

bullish. No more private credit paying.

That'll be good. Then if we can get

through

the next two months with few layoff

announcements on top of what we've had,

uh we might be able to get back to

employment growth and we stick a soft

landing with major bull catalysts. Like

think about the bull catalyst that we

have. Uh deregulation, that's huge. Uh

then we have the tax incentives from the

big beautiful bill. That's huge. Then on

top of that, we're uh expecting fiscal

stimulus and rate cuts, right?

Potentially stimulus checks, more rate

cuts. This is all good. We're not we're

hoping inflation stays tame so we can

keep getting rate cuts. We could stick

this. So that's why I think there are

opportunities to spend some money on

those 10-year stocks to buy. And that's

why I'm kind of in the middle right now.

I'm like, I know we're shockprone.

I'm selling where I don't like my

exposure and I'm buying things I'm

willing to hold even through a recession

for the next 10 years and I'm trying to

stay away from he debt heavy plays

because debt is what's going to take

this this economy down soon as that that

debt bubble in AI stops. I start getting

nervous and that that debt chart this

right here this should make you nervous

too. Anyway, my take on today. Thanks so

much for watching. We'll see you in the

next one. Goodbye and good luck. Why not

advertise these things that you told us

here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial [music]

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.