Epic Stock Market Disaster: The Soft or Hard Landing Recession.

before we begin this video there are a

lot of comments about why when PPI

numbers are coming in negative with the

stock market suddenly sell down the

answer is actually very simple the

Federal Reserve will not lift the ugly

mask of countering inflation until they

have to because as soon as the Federal

Reserve comes out and says

inflation's down guess what everyone

does they spend money and all of a

sudden we re-inflate

the Federal Reserve must keep the hard

face on that does not mean a soft

Landing is not possible also doesn't

mean we're going to avoid a hard Landing

in fact some say the FED keeping the

hard face on will be the exact same

thing that happens the last fed cycle so

2021 the beginning of 2022 the Fed was

too late in responding to high inflation

now the FED might end up being too late

in responding to low inflation which

means they actually damage our economy

more than suspected so in case you see

good news on inflation in the near term

sold off in the stock market it's

entirely normal for this Market to react

to fears that the FED will actually over

tighten too long keeping the boot on our

neck and our face in the mud for so long

that we end up suffocating that is a

very real risk so as you watch this

video balance the fed's slowness in your

this is one of the most important videos

I believe you could watch on the

recession and which stocks to pay

attention to there's a lot of detail in

this don't worry I'll be breaking it

down and signposting some takeaways from

it which I think are very important keep

in mind the information in this video is

reiterated by Insane misses on producer

price inflation that came out this

morning revisions of Prior data that

bring producer price inflation lower and

retail sales numbers missing that's good

on one hand but it could be bad for that

earnings recession which we'll also be

talking about in this video very

detailed video buckle up and enjoy we

are arguably facing one of the most

predicted recessions of all time the

Wall Street Journal suggests 61 of

economists agree that we are going into

a recession yet Jerome Powell says we

have a 50 chance of a soft landing and

if the Federal Reserve thinks we have a

50 chance of a soft landing and a 50

chance of a recession

what is the data tell us well in this

video we're going to go through multiple

reports we're going to start with some

insights from what Morgan Stanley said

in their earnings call which could be

quite fascinating it's something that

really nobody's talking about then we'll

talk about Goldman Sachs expectations on

recession soft Landing versus hard

Landing what to expect for earnings and

stock predictions as well as which

stocks could do well and which might not

we'll also look at some brief analysis

by JPMorgan Bank of America we'll also

look at the Empire State manufacturing

data that oh boy there's some

interesting Insight regarding this and

what it has to tell us about inflation

data coming up next month as well as

that darn remaining risk for inflation

data that also few people are talking

about as well as consumer data let's get

into a very thorough report on what to

expect going forward the first thing

that we're going to do is we're going to

look at this incredible piece from

Morgan Stanley now this right here is an

earnings call from Morgan Stanley that

was just released within the last day or

so here since Morgan Stanley just

reported earnings and I personally

believe that one of the most important

leading indicators of economic data you

can look at are what executives are

saying in earnings calls now you have to

be careful this is really important you

have to be careful because earnings

calls on one hand are a sales pitch for

the company like please don't make our

stock go down on the other hand they can

give you leading information about

what's going on in the economy for

example in January of 2020 every single

earnings call I read talked about how

much pricing power companies thought

that they had and that gave me massive

concerns that we were about to face an

incredible inflationary a nightmare

which is exactly what we ended up facing

over the last year now though I'm

starting to see a little bit of a

turning point and this piece by Morgan

Stanley was incredible now generally

something that's worth you knowing is

every morning at 6 a.m Pacific time

before the Market opens I am starting

course member live streams and you're

welcome to get lifetime access to those

where we can talk q a and do analysis

together if you'd like just use the

coupon code link down below the prices

will be going up after January 30th so

get in before the next 12 days lock in

that pricing and you'll get three month

guaranteed best pricing and probably

honestly you'll have the best pricing

continuing on from there anyway but

we'll see anyway let's take a look at

these numbers here so Morgan Stanley

came out with the following first I want

to start on an ad that when it comes to

Investment Banking and the investment

banking pipeline what we're realizing is

a change that's happening in economic

Outlook that CEOs are actually having

conversations in boardrooms or that will

allow CEOs to have conversations in

boardrooms to have more confidence in

their economic Outlook

when it comes to Peak inflation and

potentially Clarity on what to do with

the company going forward so I'm gonna

paraphrase that a little bit here but

let me clear that up when Executives

make business decisions with other

Executives they reasonably would get

together and say look should we invest

should we buy a corporate jet for

example for the expansion plans for the

various business models that we have and

if we as a board think that well the

economy is going to be in a

substantially worse position why would

we ever buy a jet going into a

deteriorating economy well then

obviously a company might say you know

what we don't want to do that let's hold

off on large purchases let's reduce our

purchases and by reducing our purchases

what are we effectively doing we're

reducing GDP and we're contributing to a

recession right but if as Executives we

actually think that we might just be

going through a shallow correction a

short-term recession and essentially an

adjustment period where we go from high

inflation to slowly seeing low inflation

that inflation will taper off and we'll

go back to a boom economy then we might

say you know what buying a corporate jet

or making a large business investment

might actually make sense because now we

could strategically position ourselves

in a recession when other people are

fearful

and we take advantage of that

opportunity to expand right that's

basically what Morgan Stanley here is

saying in just an example here and what

I think is so fascinating is is what you

see here is the macro environment you

laid out is one where there is more

clarity on the economy and when we have

more clarity on the economy we get a

reduction in volatility and we get

better business making decisions from

companies or more clear business

decisions from companies that could

enable earnings growth as companies

actually start reinvesting in their

businesses rather than shrinking this is

actually really interesting because if

you look at the bank earnings in

aggregate almost all of them are

spending more money on Advertising now

what's remarkable about that is you've

got people like the CEO of JP Morgan

Jamie dimon saying things like ah we're

gonna face an economic hurricane on one

hand yet on the other hand the banks in

aggregate are advertising more than ever

before they're all painting this picture

of Doom and Gloom yet they're all kind

of like hey this ain't gonna last long

let's advertise and try to get more

clients it's kind of like what right so

the most predicted recession ever is

really starting to look like an

opportunity for a lot of businesses and

that's what we're starting to see in

early indicators from earnings calls

just coming out within the last 24 hours

take a look at this here's the CEO of

Morgan Stanley I'm highly confident that

when the FED pauses deal activity and

underwriting activity will go up I would

bet the I would bet the year on that in

fact CEOs the CEO's job is to drive

growth in their businesses and they do

that in two ways organic and inorganic

and I've been doing this for a long time

and I've done both the only tricky part

about inorganic once you've got your

strategy set is timing and sometimes you

got to ignore timing but the market is

really volatile behooving CEOs

particularly those relatively early in

their careers to be cautious uh and

that's what we're seeing however that

will change okay so the translations and

sometimes the transcriptions aren't

perfect so that's why sometimes the

wording is a little weird but basically

this CEO is saying look I've played this

game before and you've got a lot of

people who are cautious right now a lot

of CEOs in those boardrooms who are

cautious but based on what we're seeing

we think that's going to flip and we're

going to see an incredible bull flip

from corporations now who knows that

could be the wrong move but a lot of

people seem to be aligning with this

with their behavior not necessarily with

their warnings so on one hand you've got

a lot of Institutions and corporations

warning about tough times ahead and

tough macro ahead but Behavior wise

businesses are still investing like

crazy and they're trying to compete more

which is interesting because on one hand

the concern would be well what if that's

inflationary right what if that keeps

pushing up the inflation narrative but

on the other hand if inflation Falls and

businesses keep investing maybe you want

to look for companies to invest in where

businesses are planning for growth and

taking advantage of these recessionary

opportunities and Goldman Sachs actually

provides us a list of stocks that could

do well in a soft Landing scenario or a

hard Landing scenario now I'm going to

go through that list of stocks but first

what we're going to do is we're going to

break down what they think is more

likely do we think we're going to get a

soft Landing which is really no

recession or do we think we're going to

get a hard Landing which is a recession

or a deeper recession right let's take a

look at what their estimates are and

then we'll look at their stocks and what

the market is pricing in what the market

price is pricing in is actually pretty

critical first go Goldman Sachs sees a

little bit of a disconnect they see that

57 percent of their clients expect a

recession remember this is similar to

the 61 percent of economists expecting a

recession however Goldman Sachs has

actually become more optimistic they

actually think that a recession is no

longer necessary in order to tame

inflation and only 35 percent of their

economists actually expect a recession

that means the market might be a lot

more pessimistic than is actually

necessary to keep inflation down which

is a really good thing for markets and a

sign that may be the bottom of the

market is actually behind us worth

noting that Citigroup just this morning

reduced their odds of a recession from

50 percent to 30 percent so you're

seeing a lot of these recessionary odds

start falling but the yield curve is now

the most inverted that it has been since

1981. usually the yield curve indicates

we've definitely got a recession coming

up and generally the hard part about the

yield curve re-inverting is that when it

reinverts that's often when we see the

biggest stock market paying now TBD it's

entirely possible that this entire

recession is just caused by the federal

reserve's tithing and when their

tightening goes away the yield curve

balances back up and everything rallies

back to peace that's the Goldilocks

scenario

but we've got some head widths let's

talk about those after all Goldman Sachs

suggests that we might have an extended

period of below potential growth but

that period will help rebalance supply

and demand in the labor market and

dampen wage and price pressures with a

much more limited increase in the

unemployment rate than historically

would be implied in other words a less

deep recession now what's very

interesting about this is uh well they

make some additional commentary here

because we're going to get into stocks

in just a moment that they recommend but

they also suggest that supply chain

recovery finally appears to be yielding

to the deflationary payback which is

great on the services side which has

been pretty sticky services are expected

to take a little bit longer because of

the lag in wage growth slowing down but

they expect that to occur and they

actually expect that inflation is going

to plummet core PC inflation down to 2.9

in December 2020 3 and CPI down to three

percent in December of 2023. remember

folks there are a lot of people who

believe how are we going to go from six

and a half to two percent or three

percent that's insane that's a crazy

drop how's that going to happen remember

you have to always always remember that

inflation is a year-over-year comparison

and if you look at this particular

projection chart right here and

inflation is let's say here and you

compare to a higher period the year

before you have deflation right so

you're always comparing to a higher

Point well or a point in the year prior

to see what inflation is so really again

always remember this if a hamburger

costs a hundred dollars because

inflation is so bad the next year it

costs a hundred and ten dollars you add

10 inflation if the year after that it

costs 110 the burger still costs you 110

but what do you think inflation is

zero percent right that's what's pretty

cool about inflation and then that look

don't get me wrong there's nothing

really cool about inflation but I think

you know what I mean it's a nice thing

to know that even if prices don't come

down they just stabilize

you have zero percent inflation and so

even if they increase a little bit but

just not as much as the year before you

could get to two percent inflation you

just have to wait for that year over

year comparison and this is where

Goldman Sachs is projecting the

following in terms of percentages they

really see a massive plummet in

inflation personally I actually think

there's a likelihood that these charts

could end up going negative and we end

up seeing some quarters or periods of

deflation that'll be quite incredible

but before we talk about deflation we've

got to talk about what's priced in right

now for a soft or hard landing and that

we actually have right here from Goldman

Sachs so Goldman Sachs suggests there

are two stories when it comes to

understanding what the market is pricing

in Story number one is earnings per

share that is how much are earnings per

share expected to decline basically to

really simplify that for you if a

company is worth a hundred dollars

and there are 100 shares outstanding and

each share therefore is worth one dollar

and let's say those shares make about 10

cents

there we go per share we want to know

how much is that earnings per share set

going down because multiples attach

these right if a company's worth a

hundred dollars there are 100 shares

outstanding and each share is a buck and

earnings per share are 10 cents then the

company is selling for 10 times earnings

right but the problem is if earnings per

share go down and they get cut to eight

cents well now what do you have well if

you go down to there we go that's eight

cents you go down to eight cents and

you're still selling for 10 times

earnings now the Stock's actually not

worth a dollar it's only worth

80 cents right 10 times earnings that's

a 20 decline in the stock price that

would be bad and so that's why a lot of

people are wondering what's priced in

for an earnings per share decline well

Goldman Sachs tells us the following in

a sharp change from Trend last year when

earnings per share estimates were stable

S P 500 earnings revisions point to a

downside story in 2023 the three-month

trend of earnings per share revision

stands at negative 31 percent the most

negative reading outside the 2008 and

2020 recessions in other words

it's still not as bad as what we saw in

08 in 2020 but still pretty dang ugly

and you could see that charted right

here very bad very bad and oh God we've

priced in a lot of pain already now this

was not true about six months ago and no

surprise stocks have actually trended

lower because of that because we still

had to price in the earnings paying well

now what's happening now the earnings

recession points to a fall in earnings

per share of 11 S P 500 earnings to

about 200 bucks this is actually

slightly less severe than prior

recessions because Goldman Sachs

believes there are fewer imbalances in

the economy we don't have the crazy sort

of financial crisis that we did in 2008

knock on wood hopefully not but Goldman

Sachs says look 11 is already priced in

and Goldman Sachs actually thinks that

this EPS decline uh is pricing in a

pretty hard Landing in fact they think

that the EPS display decline in a hard

Landing scenario would be less than

previous scenarios of like an average of

13 and therefore

an 11 decline in s p earnings aligns

with a hard Landing scenario so in other

words

simple English Markets are pricing in

when it comes to earnings per share a

hard Landing already for earnings per

share

however when it comes to margins and

this is tricky okay this gets tricky

when it comes to margins this gets a

little harder we're going to jump on

over to this projection here

our forecast is that margins will

decline in all sectors under both the

Baseline and recession scenarios

and unfortunately markets have not fully

priced in a margin contraction yet

instead

markets are only pricing in a 26 basis

point decline

but they believe that in a soft Landing

we're going to see a 58 basis point

Decline and in a hard Landing 125 basis

point decline now let's take a pause

from that for a moment because it's

pretty dang tricky all the information

they just gave us they're basically

telling us the following look

we think markets have already priced in

bad news that earnings per share are

going to go down

but the place where the market isn't

really realizing the pain yet and fully

realizing pain fully pricing it in is in

margins that basically means if you sell

a product for 100 bucks and it costs you

seventy dollars to make it you have a

thirty percent uh gross profit margin

right thirty percent 30 cents left over

in that example 30 bucks 100 minus 70 30

bucks left over

well if that gets squeezed because costs

remain high or you have to reduce the

price like let's say you reduce the

price to 90 bucks and your costs go up

to 75. now you're only making 15 bucks

that's half of what you were making

before now some say well margin

compression is already recognized or

realized in the earnings compression

right so maybe you don't have to worry

about that so much

but my take away from this is that

either way let's ignore Goldman's

analysis for just a moment given that

they suggest hey we're pricing in a hard

landing on EPS but maybe we haven't

fully priced in all the pain from margin

compression

I kind of merged these together and I

think to myself the stock market's

already got quite a bit of pain priced

into it now for earnings and margin

maybe a little bit more than necessary

maybe a little bit less than necessary

but I think the Practical bottom line

here is the stock market's already

primed for a hellish earnings season and

that could lead to positivity and

optimism after we actually get earnings

now we don't want to play a game of

hopium right that's a problem but

Goldman Sachs does give us a list of

stocks that would benefit in either of

the scenarios so here's the soft Landing

portfolio that Goldman Sachs think

thinks will do very well their first

stock that they think will do the best

Tesla

a stock with in my opinion High pricing

power even in the face of price Cuts

because of their margins

but anyway here are just some of the

names you can pause on the screen here

to see them but they see Tesla Garmin

Mohawk Industries top build Pinnacle CME

Group Synchrony Financial uh and you can

continue on here 3M AMD Qualcomm Trimble

software company here uh you know Vulcan

Materials whatever these are are some of

the soft Landing stocks that they

believe in and when it comes to hard

Landing stocks this changes

substantially they focus instead on

companies like Activision Blizzard and

EA I was actually surprised that they

included Home Depot and Lowe's since I

think in a real estate crisis as we're

seeing home prices come down which would

just be worse in a hard Landing scenario

I think people are going to spend less

on their homes so I think Lowe's and

Home Depot won't actually do very well

but okay this is their take Best Buy

Costco Kroger Tyson Food Pfizer

Microsoft Visa Mastercard into a

paychecks block a lot of Staples in here

right so this should be pretty clear but

in the hard Landing scenario you

probably want to invest in things that

are more value focused or more focused

on things that people have to use anyway

like people are going to be going to

Costco no matter what whereas maybe you

have a little bit more of a consumer

just discretionary push in the soft

Landing scenario right

the good news is that Goldman Sachs

believes this is a nice little bottom

line for the Goldman Sachs part Goldman

Sachs believes there's a significant

amount of pricing in already of earnings

per share pain

maybe not fully yet on margin

compression so be careful in how you

choose stocks and this is actually where

I personally like to look at companies

and go okay which companies do I think

are going to survive best in margin

compression and earnings compression

personally I think those are pricing

power stocks and I think it makes sense

to look for stocks that have pricing

power either by looking at actively

managed ETFs exchange traded funds those

are great because of the tax benefits of

ETFs being able to rebalance and trade

stocks within the portfolio without

passing on capital gains to you amazing

tax hack and I love pricing power ETFs

because of that hack

or look for individual companies that

you think have the most resilience for

EPS declines or margin declines okay

things to pay attention to now something

else that we want to pay attention to is

JP Morgan and Bank of America what are

they projecting well JPMorgan gives us

some fascinating insights about the

economic environment for 2023 and they

also hedge by saying look

there's a real possibility that 2023

could be worse than the environment was

in 2022

however given that we actually don't

believe that things are as bad so far

as they have been in the past in other

words even though they are increasing

their loan loss reserves they're nowhere

near the loan loss Reserves pre-pandemic

not only that but take a look at some of

these spending numbers here combined

debit and credit card spend up nine

percent year-over-year both

discretionary and non-discretionary

spend up year over year strongest growth

in discretionary being travel retail

spend up four percent that's that's

comparing to a really really strong 2021

retail spend is still up over last year

e-commerce spent up seven percent now

yes obviously inflation's up like seven

percent right so the real numbers are

like flat to negative but the fact that

it's even flat to negative compared to

the insane spending we saw last year is

really really good like this is

incredible and JP Morgan says that

consumer cash buffers for the lower

income segments are expected to be back

at pre-pandemic Levels by the third

quarter of 2023 in other words

JP Morgan thinks people still have cash

buffers going into the first quarter of

2023 that's insane

so on top of that delinquency rates for

credit cards are at 80 percent of

pre-pandemic levels

think about this for a moment I I know

there's a lot of information in this

video and that's why I like to sign post

what I think is going on here but put

this together for a moment Morgan

Stanley is quote not planning for a dark

period ahead Morgan Stanley says quote a

lot of money is sitting around waiting

to be put to work when the FED starts

cutting a lot of people excited to

invest boardroom talk about maybe people

are going to start going bullish again

Goldman Sachs going maybe we don't have

everything priced in but we're already

pricing in some pain for stocks and

maybe there won't be a recession JP

Morgan and Banks advertising more than

ever before and JPMorgan telling you

look things

things are actually still building

or at least flat compared to 2021 it's

actually not that bad I mean even flat

growth compared to 21 ain't that bad

and delinquency rates being lower than

before this is all kind of lining up for

not such a horrible situation now you've

got to keep your job though and this is

where some estimates aren't that great

JPMorgan for example thinks that we're

going to get to a peak of 4.9

unemployment rate the FED thinks we're

actually going to Peak out at 4.5 so

that means JPMorgan does see

unemployment going higher which will be

bad for the people who get laid off and

Bank of America still sees a mild

recession coming

but is also reducing how bad they think

it's going to be though they still think

5.1 percent unemployment so even Bank of

America is like higher unemployment than

the FED thinks but less bad than we've

previously thought so

you are actually starting to see

forecasts from Bank of America JP Morgan

Goldman Sachs pricing less of a

recession risk and they're starting to

soften on some of their their approaches

because data is coming in soft and

they're like wow maybe we can actually

get inflation down without a recession

maybe the soft Landing is possible I

mean look at this these are delinquency

rates on credit cards

yes yes folks delinquency rates on

credit cards are up but compare them to

what they were before the pandemic if

anything they're basically at like 2014

and 15 levels

but again yeah it's trending up so we

want to pay attention to it household

Debt Service payments which includes

mortgage payments basically at or below

historic Norms if you don't look at the

uh mortgage payments and you just look

at Consumer Debt yeah we're starting to

move up a little bit on Consumer Debt

you can see that right here we're kind

of sitting at those levels that we were

at 2018 and 2019 so yeah okay Consumer

Debt payments are up again things we

want to pay attention to but even JP

Morgan tells us people got a lot of cash

sure there are still risks for inflation

one of the big risks for inflation for

example is Hospital related services in

medical related Services because

remember the three pieces of inflation

that seem to be inflecting down we have

one which is called Goods inflation

Goods inflation already plummeting

number two housing inflation which has

been really really sticky and we and we

know that housing rent of shelter rent

of primary residents make up huge

weights of CPI over 32 percent right

and then we have wage inflation which in

part comes from hospital and medical

related services medical related

Services make up a six point almost

eight percent weight when it comes to

inflation and what do you have here well

you have sudden jumps again in the

inflationary numbers for Hospital

related Services now that could be as

The Economist puts it because of well

basically High medical related uh demand

because more people are getting sick

whether it's with covid or the RSV flu

that's going around or whatever here's

for example a piece where an England

average wait times for ambulance

response times jumping from 20 minutes

pre-pandemic for category 2 incidents

which are like heart attacks and strokes

up to 90 minute average response times

this is putting a lot of pressure on

hospitals around the world although

America is doing better average Hospital

occupancy rates recently exceeded eighty

percent for the first time so you're

seeing a lot of Demand on Hospital

services that could push up inflation

but that's like the last piece of the

puzzle that we're seeing is housing and

Hospital inflation that needs to come

down so far otherwise everything's

plummeting look at for example the New

York Empire State manufacturing survey

business activity continued to contract

sharply in the New York state area now

of course this is just the New York

state area but it is it is a frequently

tracked survey and something that tends

to be a leading indicator for the rest

of the country and for inflationary

statistics usually when the Empire State

manufacturing survey starts plummeting

inflation starts plummeting and look at

some of these numbers

headline General business conditions

index fell to negative 32.9 new orders

and shipments declined substantially

fifth month in a row of Falls delivery

times held steady inventories etched

higher employment growth stalled average

work week shortened input price

increases slowed considerably selling

price increases moderated so less

inflation right

so

this is like an insane amount of data

that that you've just gotten I am a data

nut and these are the kinds of things

that I like to teach in my courses on

building your wealth is how to get this

sort of data how to analyze this sort of

data how to learn and build your wealth

using logic right whether that's in

stocks deep fundamental analysis whether

that's in real estate wedge deals buying

properties below market value whether

that's in property management or being a

YouTuber or being an agent right of

course is on all of this or increasing

your income on negotiating check those

out by the link down below

but how do we put all of this together

because again I realize this is like oh

my gosh Kevin this is so much

information

I think all of this information is very

clearly pointing in One Direction it's

saying that look recession or not

maybe things aren't

going to be as bad as everybody thinks

maybe stocks are already pricing in a

good reduction for earnings yeah some

companies might get hit with margins and

maybe that's actually a risk to the

indices maybe that's a risk to the S P

500 and instead of being an index-based

investor maybe now makes the sense or it

makes the most sense to start picking

individual stocks that you think have

the most pricing power now look yeah I'm

a licensed financial advisor I run an

actively managed ETF I sell programs on

building your wealth I just want to be

clear when I talk about these stock

recommendations Goldman's talking about

or some suggestions I'm not giving you

personal financial advice right but from

a financial point of view

there's some potential optimistic moves

you can make here

you don't want to play hopium you know

YOLO call options not an investing

strategy but put the piece of the puzzle

together here

leading inflation data Empire

manufacturing reports isms Morgan

Stanley boardroom talk Bank advertising

spending Goldman Sachs expectations

Economist expectations for a recession

JP Morgan and Bank of America

optimistic outlooks while reducing their

negative outlooks

the leftover inflationary risks being

relatively nominal health care but

expected based on at least talk from The

Economist to wane in the coming months

especially as we get out of the winter

season and flu season

credit card Trends debt spends consumer

spending Trends consumer excess cash

balances while declining still present

per JP Morgan

when you put all of this together

it all points to One Direction and I

want to be super clear about that

because again I know this is a lot of

information

but look if this is a baseline right

here let's draw that a little later if

this is a baseline right here

all of the stuff that I'm talking about

so far

start looking like or starts to look

like a lot of green shoots now you want

to be careful right we don't want to be

in a situation where we're getting

overly optimistic

but uh frankly I'm looking for the bad

news out of all of these reports and the

only piece of bad news I saw in all of

this

was margin

that's it margin for companies margin

compression

that's it

so that is a risk but again look for

companies that have insulation here

otherwise again everything we've looked

at odds of recession consumer data

inflation data leading isms

manufacturing reports uh EPS Corrections

already priced in boardroom talk

personally

I think it makes sense to start

considering the possibility

that we may either be at bottom

or the bottom may already be behind us

might be time to start thinking about

deploying more cash rather than less

again not personalized Financial advice

for you but these are very very

different indicators from what we saw in

January of 2022 very very different in

January of 2022 this was flipped it was

mostly down arrows compared to up arrows

ah

now the last thing I have to say is I

would love to meet you in person and I'm

considering doing local events in cities

across the continental United States

basically anywhere I could fly to I'm

thinking about doing Fridays era maybe

maybe Friday events I'm not sure let me

know in the comments down below if you

consider a Friday event but basically

I'm thinking about doing uh events where

I teach real estate wedge deals and and

we get to do a Meetup and Q a and stuff

like that from somewhere probably around

like 10 30 or 11 in the morning to five

uh and we do basically some kind of

event at a hotel conference room or

whatever if that's something you're

interested in let me know in the

comments down below if you want to fly

with me privately and Shadow me as we

explore real estate you could do that as

well via the link down below now when it

comes to the bottom line you've got to

ask yourself do you believe that this

potential recession will go away when

the Federal Reserve flip-flops if the

Federal Reserve flip-flops you probably

want to be long on the market because

there's a chance the market will bottom

well before earnings bottom which is

historically true historically the stock

market bottoms three to six months

before the bottom in earnings

and you typically might expect that if

the FED starts reducing rates the

Market's already priced in those fed

actions and therefore you don't want to

wait for that to occur and instead you

want to be in the market before that fed

flip-flop so to speak however

historically the inverting of the or the

re-inverting of the yield curve so to

speak that is it's inverted so the

steepening of the yield curve

can be quite painful also often and

historically the stock market doesn't

actually bottom before the FED u-turns

so that would require a lot of hope that

this time is different and basically if

you're investing right now you're saying

you think all these positive signals

mean the fed's going to stop and the FED

is the only reason we're facing a

recession

and If the Fed Catalyst goes away we can

go back to a happy Market

if there are truly structural and

underlying issues that you believe exist

in the economy to where even if the FED

nightmare goes away and the FED stops

talking we're still facing those

structural issues they probably don't

want to be invested in the market

I personally am a fan of believing that

the only reason we have pain right now

is the Federal Reserve who's trying to

fight inflation and if inflation goes

away then the pain of the FED tightening

goes away

and we're back to a continuation

of 2019 which should be relatively

positive