prepare

Here's what you got to write down for

the next two days. First, ADP jobs

report expecting 70,000 jobs uh for

tomorrow. That's 5:15 a.m. We'll be

live. We're looking for 70,000. My

opinion is above 60. We're good. We want

data kind of like we had this morning.

data that's like okay,

not horrible because we don't want to

unpriced growth and priced in recession,

but we don't really want hot data

because that removes the odds of cuts.

Like this morning on job openings and

labor turnover survey, I said look,

anything with a seven handle is good.

You just don't want it to be really hot.

So the expectation is 7 about 4 million,

we get about 7.2 million job openings.

Perfect moon, baby. In fact, if you were

watching live live within 30 seconds of

that data coming out, I said, "This is

bullish. Bullish calls on the cues for

the day. You got to get in before CNBC

starts talking about it." And um let's

just say it has been straight up since

that data came out because the data came

out right here at sort of the bottom of

the morning right there. Straight up

since then. Pretty awesome. But data,

data, data, data. We want the same thing

to happen tomorrow with ADP. You if you

come in at like 60k, you really confirm

that rate cut for September, which is

that sugar high that markets want. Right

now, markets are pricing in a 75, sorry,

95.2%

chance. Okay, just updated again. 95.6%

chance of a rate cut September 17th.

with the FOMC. You get an ADP and jobs

report that are slightly lower, but not

so low that we're recessionary on

pricing growth and not hot, we're good.

A lot of people expect that this August

jobs data is going to show some kind of

rebound above trend. That's why the

expectations are so high. Remember,

payrolls the last 3 months have averaged

about 32 to 35,000 jobs, which is really

low. Expectations right now are 75 on 80

uh sorry 80p is 70 and then 75 for

non-farm payrolls Friday morning at 5:30

a.m. Pacific time. Mark your calendar

for those things. Friday is also the

expiration of bullish list which

remember we've got seven more of the 10

stocks to buy getting released within

the next few weeks. So if you want to be

get those 10 stocks to buy for the next

10 years my opinion not personalized

financial advice of course. I don't know

your situation. Make sure you're part of

that Meet Kevin membership. But those

are the big numbers here. And what we

want is a market reaction much like we

got today. Recognize what happened

today. Today the stock market rallied

right after we got slightly soft data.

But in addition to that slightly soft

data, we also got a plummet in yields,

which was great because yesterday yields

skyrocketed on the fears that Trump is

going to have to issue basically a bunch

of new bonds to fund the US government

because he's going to have to repay all

these tariffs, which isn't great. But

today, we get this slightly soft data.

10-year drops back to 4.23.

We're still at shock territory of 61 on

the 210 spread, which isn't great. And

the Wall Street Journal's yapping about

how consumers are basically starting to

set up a recessionary cycle. And the way

to avoid this is by making sure we get

jobs to keep booming. See, one thing

that's also happened, and Zero Hedge is

talking about this quite a bit, is we've

just seen for the first time since April

of 2021,

a move in the labor market where all of

a sudden we have more job vacancies than

we have

unemployed. Uh now that kind of movement

is not great because typically we never

enter in a recession when the labor

market is constrained.

However, as your hedge here says as of

this moment the labor market is no

longer constrained. This is just in

English a way of saying yo there are

more people in land than there are

openings.

Real simple like that. Okay. So, it does

set up concerns and this is why we

really want to see these job data sets

come in positive because look at this.

The Wall Street Journal is already

starting to do this talk that I I don't

love seeing. They say here, "Hey, Q2

numbers beat profit expectations. They

beat because you've got managers who are

cutting costs, forcing employees to use

AI, and hiring less people while at the

same time raising prices. That's great

for company earnings and it's supporting

company buybacks which could be

contributing to an over, you know, 130

basis point extra boon to the S&P 500

over just the last few months because

companies are trimming profits and using

those extra profits to go buy their

stock back. But the problem with this is

the risk that you end up creating some

kind of down cycle. Uh this is where

when we look at retail sales adjusted

for inflation, they're basically flat.

retail sales were really only going up

because of inflation which isn't great.

Uh so you know uh like we're we're not

really seeing sales growth. And the

concern with this is what happens when

you get into a cycle of a slowdown where

all of a sudden people start having here

like this person writes it here.

Corporate efforts to trim their way to

profit growth haven't led to deep

business or consumer spending cuts yet.

that often precede recessions, not yet.

But the fear is the longer this

corporate spending cycle or cutting

cycle rather goes on, the more likely we

are to enter something akin to a

downturn. For example, they basically

get into as you reduce prices, people

get laid off. When people get laid off,

they have less money to spend. When they

have less money to spend, earnings at

companies go down, which lead companies

to then lay off more. This is the cycle

of unemployment. This is not a surprise.

Again, that's why I make the argument

that the most important catalyst this

month, not the Fed, not Beigebook or any

kind of other crap data. Nobody cares.

The most important data we have is

coming out within the next 24 to 48

hours. And we hope that it's going to be

a really good and solid catalyst.

>> Bullish catalyst. How can it be a

bullish catalyst? again, please give us

at least 60K on ADP tomorrow morning and

60K on the jobs report on Friday. If we

can get at least that, we are going to

guarantee rate cuts of 25 basis points

and we're good. If we get something

ridiculous, which we've seen this happen

before, we basically have these like all

of a sudden really low reads and and

everybody freaks out and gets nervous

and then all of a sudden out of nowhere

we get this huge banger and we end up

getting like 150,000 jobs or something

wild. This has happened twice before and

there are murmurings on Wall Street that

it could happen again. I have the chart

right here. See, look at this. In 2024,

we go really low, then we boom on

payrolls. End of 24, we go really low,

we boom. We go low, we boom. Here we go.

2025, we're low.

Are we now going to boom again? There is

a hope that the answer to this question

is yes, that we are going to boom again

and we're going to get some kind of

blowout number like 150,000 jobs,

positive revisions, everything gets

revised up. the people working for Trump

don't want to get fired. So the numbers,

you know, get biased up and you end up

having hot reform. The downside there is

we'd be in a position where all of a

sudden now we have to unpric 25 basis

point cuts. Everything comes down to

what's happening in uh the ADP report

tomorrow at 5:15 a.m. and then of course

the jobs report at 5:30 a.m. Friday. So

mark your calendar for those. We'll be

live streaming them. Use coupon code

bullish catalyst because if we beat

these calls, man, I think all-time highs

are coming and we're going to the moon

and really excited about that. If we

beat on these numbers, the 60k that

Kevin wants. If we get something low

like I mean, god forbid we get something

negative, but imagine we get something

even like anemic like 20,000 right on

these numbers. That's basically going to

be indistinguishable from negative.

That's very similar to what Waller's

concern is. Waller's concern based on

what he suggests is the weekly uh ADP

data is that we're actually setting up

for multiple rate cuts. He says we need

to cut this month. Inflation will be

lower from tariffs in six to seven

months. I don't know why he picked six,

seven. Uh, and he has not been chosen

for an interview yet with Bessant, which

is a little bit of a sign that maybe he

won't end up being the Fed chair and

maybe they'll go for some other

kneebending shill, but whatever. Bostic

released a statement saying that whether

we cut in September or not depends on

the jobs report. Obvious. See what the

Fed is doing. They're basically saying,

"Look, we're just going to punt this

jobs report. This is why these jobs

reports are so important." But I think

everybody knows the trend is back to

inflation target. Even uh the Fed um the

Fed member Mosulum suggests that

inflation should be back to 2% by the

second half of 2026 which implies camp

transitory 2.0 and that we should

continue to see below trend growth which

also suggests lower rates to prop up

growth again which probably is why

you've got Trump Jr. and their partner

company now 1789 Capital uh getting into

potentially a $1 billion real estate

fund to buy real estate in Bokeh and

Palm Beach. Have Have you noticed what

Trump is doing? Trump the real estate

guy is trying to push rates lower while

Trump Jr. is getting into and setting up

a real estate fund in Bokeh and West

Palm. You see where we're going here?

Warren Buffett's investing in pool. Dr.

Horton, Lenar, the homebuilders, you've

got mortgage companies starting to trend

up. You kind of see we're going into a

new cycle here. Everybody's still all in

on like SAS and and AI, which is fine

because there's a lot of money to be

made there. But if you're looking for

the next cycle, the real estate cycle is

very interesting. And that's why we'll

probably have to end our bond fund raise

soon for for house hack just because if

the Fed starts really rapidly cutting

rates, it doesn't make sense for us to

pay out a 5% yield. Plus, you get 100%

upside on the stock. I mean, we're

looking at it like, man, if we just go

back to just issuing stock without yield

instead of the convertibles that we're

doing now, it's still a great deal in

our opinion, you know, but right now, if

you invest at houseack.com, you still

get the 5% uh convertible uh plus all

the upside in the stock. Learn more over

at houseack.com. Open to accredited

nonacredited investors. Make sure to

read the perspectus uh and the offering

circular before investment. Every

investment comes with risk. So, uh

interesting. Also, Bank of England

saying we're not in stagflation. The

direction of rates is down. It's unclear

how far that down is, but the direction

is clearly down. Little bit of talk on

Trump punishing purchasers for Russian

oil. Uh this comes at the, you know,

moments after Putin talks about

supplying over 100 billion cubic meters

of natural gas to China via pipeline

deals. Uh and really, I'd say the data

this morning was just frankly good

enough and we just don't really have a

big payroll shock to worry about yet. So

we're in a bullish position, bullish

catalyst, but do expect there to be some

>> bullish catalyst

>> nervousness going into the jobs data.

Like usually what happens going into

jobs data is you have some kind of

sellown towards the end of the day

because everybody gets nervous about

jobs data at the beginning of the day

and people with positioning that they

have to trade, they can't trade in the

pre-market right after the data. So they

just have to assume bad and then they

they step back in if good, right? So,

um, I'm very I I would be very bullish

if we get a strong both ADP as a fact

check on jobs and jobs report this week.

Very exciting and and that's why, you

know, our top 10 stocks to buy, seven of

them are still coming up uh because

they're, you know, they're going to be

more dependent on the direction of our

soft landing. Can we repeat a 1995 style

soft landing? Hopefully. Uh but keep in

mind also the ADP report is a tool uh

for fact-checking the government's data.

Uh and I love that. So it's basically a

private survey that gives us a little

bit of a fact check on to what you know

the the actual government is doing. So I

like that. And I believe the ADP the ADP

might actually have a little bit more

weight than the payrolls data this time

around. We'll see. Uh in addition to

this, you know, we were going through

the ZIP earnings call. They still talk

about the tempered hiring market and the

dynamic market. They they kind of refuse

to really talk about how bad the labor

market is because they want to sound

bullish for their stock, you know, Zip

Reccruiter, which kind of makes sense.

Uh they do talk about how

weirdly educational hiring was down

year-over-year. Uh yeah, here it's

actually we compared to the prior year

down significantly in education. Usually

healthcare and education are like your

last, you know, rungs that are holding

up the ladder of employment. Uh, and in

the Jolts report today, we did actually

get a little bit of weaker healthcare

data, which was interesting. We saw

healthcare, where did I write it down?

Let's see here. I'm pretty sure

healthcare, healthcare, healthcare.

Oh, where was it? Oh, yeah. The pullback

was driven by health care, retail,

leisure, and hospitality. And I wrote

that's ironic because healthcare is such

a boom. Keep in mind though, the Jolt's

data is July data. You know, it's kind

of old news. Uh the Zip Recruiter

earnings call here is from August 11th,

which is a day after Lauren's birthday,

and they're talking about, you know,

weak in education. And they also talked

about artificial like technology hiring

being down 5%. Which I thought that was

interesting because that's probably like

they were saying, "Hey, yeah, if you

want to see the impact of AI, look at

technology, you know, look at the

category most impacted by AI, look at

technology." And they're kind of setting

up like, "Look, it's going to be great."

And then they go, and that was down 5%

year-over-year.

And I'm like, "Oh, that's bad." Now,

they they say we're not seeing a

significant disruption or impact from AI

in terms of jobs being posted, but I

feel like they're a little broken here.

I feel like like they're looking at this

with rosecolored glasses, like 5% down

on job postings in tech year-over-year.

That's bad. I don't know, man. I I I'm

not the biggest fan of that. So, uh I I

don't know. But all I know is we've got

coupon code bullish catalyst over at

meetke.com. get that Kevin membership,

you get all 10 of the top 10 stocks to

buy for the next 10 years. Obviously,

not personalized financial advice, but

you know, unique stocks that we're

looking at that we're like, "Okay, yeah,

these have a really good shot for that

next cycle." You know, we want to think

about what's next, not what's been.

We're not about what has been, we're

about. Uh that is the goal. Uh and so,

uh look also at some of the recent calls

we've had on uh for example, Circle in

the Alpha Report. We talked about this

trending down to 120, folks. It not only

broke down 120, it is now under 120. We

also were bearish on coreweave. Uh

coreweave going back to 90 we said and

sure enough, look at that. We reject the

105 line back down to 90. Both of those

in the alpha report. Uh Iran has been

another one we've been talking about on

the channel, kicking butt. Uh and uh

yeah, let's see what happens. We've got

some other uh exciting calls as well in

alpha, so we'll see what happens. Do

have a little bit of a sellown coming up

towards the end of the day. Not uncommon

with uh such big catalysts over the next

2 days.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.