All Investors are F%$K'D if THIS is True | Critical Warning.

holy smokes we gotta talk about the

consumer because the consumer is not

running out of cash the way you think

last year we were told by the big Banks

like JP Morgan that uh oh people are

going through their savings and they're

running out of excess savings you will

not believe then the latest data that JP

Morgan is giving us on the actual bank

balances that people have it is

absolutely insane and it should affect

the way that you invest not personalize

Financial advice for you but you should

look at that and go damn I didn't

realize that it's nutty so let's talk

about that and what that potentially

means for a six percent terminal federal

funds rate from the Federal Reserve

anyway let's get started right after of

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that flash sale on the shadowing

experience as well okay let's get into

consumer health

JP Morgan report information from bank

and credit card CEO shows that cash

balances both checking and shaving

savings remain elevated to pre-covered

levels now you're going to see exactly

by how much in just a moment and it's

insane additionally this cash pile has

been declining at a slower than expected

rate in other words CEOs thought we were

going to burn through excess cash

faster than we actually are that means

people uh uh you know end up having uh

uh more money to support company

earnings

consumers are holding up less uh

consumers are holding less credit debt

and are paying bills at a higher rate

than before the pandemic how insane is

that because in November December we saw

these insane credit spikes of people

like taking on way more debt in October

as well debt accrual actually declined

in January we didn't take on as much

debt in January but at the end of the

year people were going crazy into debt

more personal loans it was a big Boon

for Sofi and upstart they killed it with

personal loans upstart had a fantastic

report yesterday uh they were up uh what

were they they were up 28 yesterday

today in pre-market they're giving back

like six percent but who cares they're

up like 28 yesterday is absolutely

insane uh and so you've got consumers

borrowing like crazy right now

but listen to this combining this

information JP Morgan is telling us

fears of a consumer-led recession in

2023 appear overblown absent a Black

Swan event

in their words exogenous shock whatever

under this hypothesis the earliest a

recession would materialize is mid-2024

that actually aligns with the inverted

yield curve which says the recession

could be delayed to 2024 right

now there's this talk about maybe

oversimplifying the market though by

talking about hard Landing versus soft

Landing versus no ladder landing and JP

Morgan's basically like dude we have no

freaking idea what this plane is doing

and quite frankly the economy is not

really a plane anyway because who says

it has to land and who says it's going

to run out of gas like maybe that's just

not the best analogy

but anyway one of their co-heads of

global Equity trading says the following

and I think it's honestly probably one

of the most honest perspectives I've

seen right here not because I think it

sort of reiterates what I'm doing but

because they start off with I don't know

I think that's just honest right and so

he says I don't know what this print

change is talking about the CPI numbers

though everyone I talk to is saying

people are long and we should sell

rallies

and it's hard to disagree with that but

every time people sell to rallies this

year

it's been wrong

I think this year is shaping up to be by

dips and the 60 40 portfolio is back

with short duration treasuries

I actually thought that was a very

honest suggestion for people that hey

man look like so far selling the rips

has been a mistake maybe any dip by it

and this and I'm not saying I respect

this because it aligns with me I think

that's convenient but I respect it

because I think he's honest like dude so

far selling the rips has been a bad idea

because it just keeps going higher

but I think what he's saying very much

aligns uh with the Nike Swoosh thesis

although I don't want to be subject to

confirmation bias although even being

aware of your own potential confirmation

bias doesn't necessarily remove your

confirmation bias uh anyway so look at

this folks look at this chart from

Bloomberg opinion here

household savings exploded higher during

the pandemic causing havoc in the labor

market look at this explosion this is

insane but you ready for the real

bombshell

69 off on the coupon it's a flash sales

sorry I had to do it uh look at this

okay wait where is it where is it where

is it credit card balances as a

percentage of disposable income or less

than they were pre-pandemic also true

so here it is folks this is the

bombshell

ready here we go Wells Fargo who

highlighted spend data is still very

healthy

and debit card spending is up three

percent year over year in January and

accelerated one percent year-over-year

in December with credits card spending

tracking 20 up in January this is like

the American Express report basically

saying people are spending through this

recession right

listen to this

consumers

with two to five thousand dollars in

their savings account pre-pandemic

okay

I need you to really listen to that

because I don't think you listen to that

and that's okay consumers before the

pandemic had on average two to five

thousand dollars in their savings

account okay I'm drawing that on the

screen two to five thousand dollars okay

this is a really important note I want

you to pay attention to okay two to five

thousand dollars pre-pandemic what do

they have now

12.8 thousand dollars currently and this

balance has been stable for the past few

months after peaking at thirteen point

four percent in April 2022 per Bank of

America

holy crap when I read this yesterday

while we were traveling with uh uh with

with members uh or or with with my team

members uh a research team uh I'm

looking at this and I'm like good Lord

you're telling me excess savings which

everybody's been talking about falling

has only fallen from 13.4 thousand

dollars in April or basically a year ago

to 12.8 now you realize 12.8 divided by

13.4 only means consumers have drawn

down four and a half percent of their

excess savings

and it is still over two and a half X

the upper end of excess savings we had

before the pandemic consumers again with

two and a half thousand dollars in their

savings account before the pandemic are

now sitting at twelve point eight

thousand dollars that's a freaking

bombshell that's a bombshell no wonder

we potentially could see some form of

inflationary impulses because this is

insane

on top of that you do still have JP

Morgan warning about potentially you

could see like uh you know earnings

Pockets people are spending less on gas

that's great cars are more efficient

you've got people saying hey you know

the fed's gonna end up crimping us but

despite that what did you end up getting

with retail sales yesterday reiterating

that they are way up people are spending

way more than expected

the Atlanta fed GDP now estimate shows a

uh what what do we add now 2.4 percent

on GDP now GDP now by the way basically

takes uh all of the latest data and they

try to forecast what they think GDP is

going to be for the nation uh and uh uh

using the latest economic data right so

they try to update it all the time but

anyway they're adjusting that GDP up for

2023. it does not look like we're

walking into a recession in 2023. people

have way too much freaking money

way way way more money than we expected

uh and GDP is moving up now that does

reiterate the higher for longer

narrative right and this is why you get

people saying hey look there's a reason

people are talking about the six percent

terminal fed funds rate right and here

for example I think this is a Goldman

Sachs piece they're basically talking

about we probably have to see few

further data but if six percent terminal

narratives become more widely adopted we

could be in for a bout of equity

weakness but then again as we recently

and it's worth noting we recently went

from 4.9 percent on a Fed terminal rate

to 5.3 on Market expectations and even

though we had a bumpy Equity Market

Equity markets trended up very important

to consider so pretty crazy now I want

to be very clear

if you uh if you support me and you

wanna you wanna Shadow me in a day uh

some of the day we we can't guarantee

that we're going to be traveling some of

the days we're going to be driving uh

and we'll go look at real estate some of

the days we might uh we we might might

be in office days so it's just very

important uh most of our shadows uh uh

well that doesn't so much matter but uh

the point is I just want to be very very

clear uh anytime that I mention the

shadowing experience very clear that

there's no Transportation that's

guaranteed you're not you're not coming

here to to book Transportation you're

coming to Shadow me whatever it is that

I'm doing with my businesses so I want

to make that very very clear

uh and you could use that flash sale for

69 uh off uh expiring Friday and this is

some pretty crazy data that we're

getting here on uh on on the consumer

spend but uh it reiterates no recession

this year that is pretty remarkable