Trump: NO Income Tax under $150k Income.

I know what his goal is no tax for

anybody who makes less than $150,000 a

year yeah that's a big goal and it would

be really cool because 93% of you would

benefit from no federal income tax if

this happened this sounds absolutely

amazing it's a lot of money that

Americans would save 93% of Americans 15

years or older make less than

$150,000 per year now when we look at

the number of income taxes paid in the

state and to try to understand what some

of the math behind this would be and

what we would have to actually recover

to be able to offset this let's do some

numbers first of all the top 10% of

Americans pay about

75.6 uh uh 75.8% of all income taxes the

top 5% pay about

65.6% which means that top 10% pays more

than 2/3 almost more than 2/3 of our

taxes it's pretty remarkable this means

the top 7% probably pays somewhere

around 70% of income taxes approximating

a little bit so what does this mean this

means that the leftover 30% is paid by

93% of Americans okay that I know that

sounds like a lot of numbers and I'm

going to simplify that really quickly

I'm going to show you this on screen

right here sorry my little bubble isn't

aligned right now so just ignore that

little black box that's supposed to be

me pretend I'm there see right here top

10% of taxpayers according to the

taxfoundation.org look at the top 10% of

taxpayers right here they pay

75.8% the top 5% pay 65 top 1% 45 right

so to figure out what percent 93% of

Americans pay we could look for the top

7% be somewhere in between here let's

just call it 70% and assume that the top

7% of Americans pay about 70% of taxes

that means the bottom 93% or people

paying taxes on under

$150,000 pay or are responsible for

paying about 30% of Americans tax

revenue income tax revenue all right

fine so how much is that well the total

bucket of tax revenue for America is

about 2.2 trillion at least that's what

we saw uh in 2021 records and it sort of

fluctuated a little bit from there but

let's use that number for a moment and

let's apply 30% to that that works out

to about $660 billion so we've got to

come up with about

$650 billion dollars in annual recurring

Revenue to

offset Americans making under $150,000 a

year from paying taxes okay how can we

do that well obviously we could spend

less which is

attempted to be accomplished with Doge

but we're having trouble even adding up

math so far on spending for more than

about $2 billion of cuts and I'm not

saying what doge is doing isn't good it

is good like we want to see efficiency

brought to government saying 20 is going

to be a far cry from 660 and remember we

need 660 every single year so an idea

that so far I like more although Doge

could end up being more productive over

time let's see we got to give him some

time it's early here is the gold card

the gold card is interesting because it

potentially raises $5 million per person

who wants to immigrate to the United

States and sort of buy citizenship the

problem with that is you would have to

sell about 200,000 of those to raise a

trillion

dollars and I'm just trying to use round

numbers there uh obviously you'd have to

raise a little bit less to get $660

billion and so the question then is how

many times can we do that well there are

approximately 2.2 million people who

live outside of the United States that

have a net worth of greater than $10

million which means if you had a net

worth of $10 million you'd have to give

up half of your net worth to go to

America let's assume they'd be willing

to do that how many of these 2.2 million

people are actually going to buy the

gold card

let's say one in 10 that's 200,000

people great that's about $1 trillion of

Revenue but now what you would need

another 10% and another 10% and another

10% to come basically about every year

and a half just to make it so that

Americans don't have to pay income taxes

when they make under

$150,000 so this lutnick proposal while

it sounds good as an ultimate solution I

don't think and and a goal I don't think

the gold card is going to get us there

because there just aren't enough people

that have this sort of net worth outside

of America the majority of people who

have a net worth of greater than $10

million already live in America it's

like about a million people 2.2 live all

across the rest of the

world so on a country by country basis

the majority live in America so they're

already

here uh now of course we could assume

some of them might be green card holders

who knows maybe they could pay for their

citizenship but then again why pay 5 mil

for the benefit to vote I I don't know

that seems unlikely if you already have

a green card that's really the

difference right voting and jury duty

because you have a permanent resident

card

now tariffs are an interesting one so

let's do some tariff Mass so so the gold

card idea is cool but it's more onetime

in nature you need recurring savings

annually not like one-time Dei contracts

that are cut but I mean like like every

year we need to save money and cut okay

so what about tariffs well tariffs are

interesting because right now we earn

about let's see here we earn about $88

billion on

tariffs so that's about a 2% tariff uh

$88 billion is a far cry from what we

need to get to

$660 billion and remember the $88

billion we collect now is stuff that we

already collect right so we only

collected tariffs of $88 billion in

2022 that works out to about 2% of trade

that we import because we import about

4.1

trillion any of the revenue that we want

to get to offset not paying taxes under

$150,000 that would have to come from an

increase in tariffs above the 2%

threshold

so if we want $660 billion on $4.1

trillion of imported goods we're looking

at 16% tariffs on

everything so far we have a stock market

that is selling off on the idea of 25%

tariffs on cars and aluminum and steel

not everything computer Tri chips

Electronics structural Hardware I don't

know screwdrivers from Germany anything

you know toys from China doesn't

matter if all of that had a tarff of 16%

you could do it you would

then eliminate income taxes for

everybody making under $150,000 a year

then the question becomes does that come

with the potential Market selloff

recession

risk what about retaliatory tariffs that

actually take that four trillion dollar

of imports and shrink it right because

if $4 trillion of imports shrink to $3

trillion well then we actually need to

tax even more because then we do 660 ID

3 trillion we'd have to raise taxes from

16% to

22% so every $1 trillion of less trade

is going to lead to 6% more tariffs

required to get to that 660 billion

bucks well that's going to lead to more

retaliatory tariffs and more exporting

American you know anti-americanism so

like I think what's Happening Here is

Howard lutnick is creating this

desirable hope but it's not even

something Donald Trump campaigned on

it's just something that lutnick is

saying to try to get support so I would

argue that this no tax on $150,000

argument is very unlikely to happen I do

think that no tax on tips and Social

Security are much more likely to happen

I think those have a high likelihood of

happening but I think this idea of

nobody pays taxes on under 150k has a

very low likelihood of happening just on

a math point of view but also because we

know the gold card doesn't give us

enough recurring we know Doge doesn't

give us enough recurring at this point

especially since a lot of their Cuts

have been onetime in nature so then

we're relying on tariffs and we've seen

a fraction of

tariffs cause massive market

sell-offs so to me while there is hope

that maybe this could work especially if

we don't go into recession and we we

negotiate some form of deals with other

countries it seems on the lower likely

potential I'd give it about a 5% 5%

chance that'd be my POV uh just based on

these numbers hey who knows I would love

to see it happen I just think this is

more likely anyway thanks so much for

watching I'll keep bringing you

perspective and we'll see you in the

next one thanks for watching see you

soon bye why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always wait to get

your take