WARNING: Shocking, Unexpected Reset for Stocks Coming.

hey did someone say a coupon was

expiring oh that's right it's Halloween

tonight thank you very much

hey everyone it's me Kevin here wow

midterm elections two CPI reports two

job reports two fed meetings Russia

resetting the grain trade and escalating

War housing dropping off a cliff

especially on the west coast in the last

three months and oh boy some folks

actually have the audacity to call for a

Santa Claus rally well after all we did

just have the best October since 1976

CPI or CPI depending on which side of

the fence you're on minus shelter

inflation has been zero for three months

and bearish bats are fading from markets

though Vanda track when they tell us

that bearish bets are fading from

markets also gives us a little hint that

that could be because well so many

people have so much money on the

sidelines they don't need to make that

many bearish bets anymore to hedge so

what argument could there be for a

bullish U-turn in markets well in this

video we're going to talk about exactly

that and we'll see how bullish meet

Kevin really is let's take a look at

that this video is by the way brought to

you by MooMoo but more on them later

look here are some reasons we might

actually see a run into the end of the

year and it's quite bullish look of

course we have jobs data and CPI data

that could disappoint us along with two

fed meetings that might not give us the

hints we're looking for for a reason for

a U-turn but that's okay because there

could be plenty of other reasons for a

run the first of which is quite

interesting it is the blackout period

for corporate BuyBacks coming to an end

that's right corporations don't like to

make it seem like they bought a bunch of

their own stock leading into earnings

and then if the stock soars they don't

want to make it seem like they traded on

inside information and of course if the

stock tanks they don't want to make it

seem like they're idiots buying their

own suck right before terrible earnings

so that's why I usually have corporate

blackout periods and this is leading to

a belief that we're about to hit within

the next week one of the biggest

expirations of corporate blackout

periods that could lead to a whole lot

of corporate BuyBacks and that's because

a lot of Corporations realize wait a

minute maybe things aren't that bad yet

and maybe they actually won't really get

that bad after all you look at American

Airlines still talking up demand going

into Q4 Airbnb talking up demand going

into Q3 we'll see how that changes in

their next earnings report coming out

this week you've still got Netflix

growing subscribers I'm sure you've got

big misses and disappointments at

companies like meta but they had a

company coming for really their change

in business model you have some

disappointment for e-commerce and AWS

and advertising which are leading

indicators of a potential recession

coming next year from companies like

Google and of course Amazon with AWS but

a lot of optimism from companies like

Amex that individuals still have a lot

of money left to spend and that the cash

balances that they've hoarded about 1.7

trillion dollars of extra extra savings

could lead to some real buying in the

stock market especially when we see and

consider the fact that another reason we

might see a rally going into the end of

the year is

tax loss harvesting a lot of folks have

been tax loss harvesting in and

throughout the period after Jackson Hole

when Jerome Powell became a lot more

bearish and really talked the market to

new lows and he succeeded at doing that

we thought this summer like June July

would have been the bottom of the market

no it ended up being September and

October now we might end up hitting a

new low going forward but we would need

some really nasty surprises even the

inflation shock that we had this morning

in Europe wasn't enough to actually move

Equity substantially lower consider this

most markets were thinking that

inflation would come in that is most

economists were thinking that inflation

will come in at about 10.2 percent in

the Eurozone Barclays yesterday

increased their estimate to 10.5 percent

and actually came in at just over

10.7

really really high Eurozone inflation

and Germany still eking out a positive

GDP read which is quite remarkable now

that success may not last but it's

leaving a lot of folks scratching their

head saying it's going to take a lot of

dirty darkness and bad news for things

to get much worse than where they sit

now and that leads to the next reason

markets could rally and this is a big

one but before we get into the next part

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below the next reason markets could

actually rally in a bullish manner is

the fact that they tend to do exactly

that if you look at 1962 to

2022 a 60-year period you tend to make

most of your stock market returns

between in October and may this is why

the saying is sell in May and go away

because if you invested a hundred

dollars in 1962 you would have barely

grown that to a hundred and eighteen

dollars had you been an investor only

between May and October showing you that

most of the stock market returns and as

demonstrated by this chart here are

actually made between October and May

and following a midterm election we

should see some real optimism move into

the markets after the election and

between this November 1 to May period so

not only do you have the end of the

corporate blackout period but you've

also got a lot of money on Sidelines tax

loss harvesting leading to money that

needs to be redeployed or is likely to

be redeployed and you've got this

phenomenon of gains between November and

many now one of the reasons for this

could have to do with retirement funding

see towards the end of the year a lot of

people sit down and say ah honey we

should probably put money into our 401k

or max out our match with our employer

or max out our Roth IRA or even our Roth

401k and which by the way you could use

to invest in house hack if you're an

accredited investor there's a deadline

to sign your docs today and Wire by the

end of the week if you're accredited if

you're not accredited don't worry hang

out till about January and we'll get you

taken care of but wait a minute if folks

fund their retirement accounts most of

them don't end up leaving that money

sitting in cash they end up deploying

that into a fund so they can set it and

forget it and then the fund whether it's

a mutual fund or an ETF whatever it is

ends up deploying that right into the

markets so you have a lot of pressure on

the stock market to potentially Trend

Upward at the same time as having lower

levels of hedging that we've than we've

previously seen before potentially

leading to less pressure down on stocks

and more pressure up on top of that

you've got a big rationale that markets

tend to Rally after the Federal Reserve

meetings in fact if throughout this year

you had only invested on the day the

fomc meetings occurred you would have

been substantially more green than a few

dollar cost averaged on any other days

it almost seems like it's a very simple

psychology of oh Peak fear on fed day

and then relaxation after the darn

commentary comes out now that's not

always the case we've definitely had

some red days after those fed meetings

but they've been green more than they've

been read by a significant margin and

that could actually lead to a slew of

new retail buying after the FED meeting

when Peak fear of the FED meeting and

Peak hedging for the FED meeting goes

away we start seeing the leftover shorts

and hedges cover and potentially

activate a bull run for the Santa Claus

rally now the other other thing to keep

in mind is markets generally bottom out

six months before the bottom of earnings

per share from companies that means we

would generally expect that if we're

going to get really bad earnings from

companies in Q2 of 2023 and maybe we

fall back into a recession since

technically we had a recession q1 Q2 of

2022 now technically we're out of that

since GDP has gone positive and it might

go negative again next year we might see

that bottom in EPS come Q2 Q3 of 2023

and the bottom of the stock market

should according to Goldman Sachs come

about six months before that on top of

that

the market has historically bottomed out

when the Federal Reserve has u-turned to

a dovish stance now that does not

necessarily mean reduce the pace of rate

hikes it means oh inflation has you

turned okay we can relax substantially

now the first time they set this

precedent was after Black Monday and

they set the precedent for bailing out

the market and that's when they marked

the bottom of the market of the crash of

1987. now back in 2003 they marked the

bottom of the.com era by bailing out

markets in the spring of 2003 they did

so again marking in the bottom of the

stock market with their actions in

February of 2009 again in December of

2018 and again in March of 2023 so

where's that Federal Reserve U-turn and

will markets try to pre-lead when the

Federal Reserve flip-flops and could we

potentially see a bottom actually come

before the fed's dovish U-turn probably

since we've seen a lot of bear Market

rallies rev up for that Davis U-turn

just hasn't come yet gotten punished

and hopefully one of these times we

actually do get that dumbest pivot from

the FED of course that does mean this

next rally that we could see over the

next two months could just be another

bear Market rally it could be an

opportunity to do very prudent things

like diversifying your Investments get

some of your money put aside into

treasuries that are yielding you over

four percent or maybe even into house

hack where we are parking money into

treasuries yielding over four percent

until we decide to strike on real estate

which could happen sooner or later than

we expect but we want to make sure we're

prepared so we get the best deals

possible and increase shareholder value

and increase the value of the company

house hack most important thing stay out

of debt in these times you don't want to

be getting margin called in the event

that we have another 20 downside ahead

of us just like you don't want to be

getting reamed by doing a bunch of uh

you know YOLO bearish bets and put

options and then you get reamed by a

rally that ends up getting you called

the last thing you want to do is

speculate in this environment because as

a top Trader for JP Morgan put it last

week on a phone call you could have done

anything over the last 10 months but

historically over the last 10 months the

best thing you could have done would

have been the most ridiculous thing the

most unexpected thing because that has

been what has done well over the last 10

months the most ridiculous unexpected

things now some people like to brag

about how they've been perfect in this

market the reality is nobody's been

perfect so don't feel bad if you're

looking at other people post Reddit

posts or Wall Street bets YOLO bets and

they seem like they're hitting the

lottery and they've got everything

perfect

they are either extremely lucky or

they're lying this has been a very very

difficult market and even if you've

adjusted and you've had slightly more

wins than you've had losses you're doing

better even if you adjusted and sold and

rebought and you were able to avoid some

losses you're doing better than others

and not that this is a game of

Relativity it's just to be very clear

this is a very tough time this is when

the true psychology of money comes out

and the people who can really withstand

these sorts of markets actually build

their cue their quantities of positions

that they want to hold and own and that

they expect to build substantial returns

over the years going forward look

ultimately inflation could be stickier

and lasts a lot longer than we expect

and that does mean the Federal Reserve

could end up hiking a lot higher than

markets are pricing in now Federal

Reserve told us 4.6 percent and this

morning they started hinting that we

could go to 5.25 to 5.5 percent them

that could lead to a really dirty new

bottom for the stock market although the

market at this point already seems to be

getting used to this idea that all right

it's going to take longer rates are

going to go higher

buckle up and get ready so make sure you

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have a wonderful Halloween