France-Germany diametrically opposed regarding Russia talks. Europe divided. Kallas on her way out?

Hello everybody, here we are again from

Shanghai. Let's talk about something

which is happening now in Europe and

this is related to the war in Ukraine.

Europe is slowly but clearly under the

surface unraveling over the war in

Ukraine and more specifically how to

deal with Russia. And as Russia is now

pressing on the battlefield, Europe's

supposed to be unity starts cracking

wide open. And it seems now that behind

closed doors, leaders are really

starting to clash over strategy. They're

issuing all kind of mixed signals and

there is obviously a drift between a

hardline approach and there of course

we're thinking about Miss Kayakalas and

the obvious need to be more pragmatic

towards Russia and there we are we are

seeing Mako being in the lead now the

masks of unity are clearly slipping and

what is left now seems to be confusion a

dawning sense that no one is actually

really in control and of course the

uncertainty of what will come next. Now

before we talk about this and what

actually happened over the last week,

please like the video if you do of

course and subscribe to the channel to

hear more news especially focusing on

Europe and China. Now let's go back in

time to see what happened over the last

two months. We have of course the usual

suspects like an Ottabban who already

since long is calling for more

engagement with Russia. But at the end

of last year and so at the beginning of

this year more and more European leaders

start to pivot towards reestablishing

contact and direct communication with

Russia and Putin. And they said we have

a need there's a need for European voice

in peace negotiations. And it started

last year December with Macro little

Napoleon who said okay we should

consider re-engaging with Putin.

This then was quickly followed by

Maloney who also said okay the Europeans

the European Union should talk to Russia

with a unified voice because she was

afraid that if Europe would not directly

engage with Putin that would then

actually limit Europe's contribution to

any final settlement. And of course, the

Americans and the Russians are talking

about some kind of peace or some kind of

final settlement for the Ukraine.

This then was few weeks ago followed by

Max who also said okay we should

probably talk to to Russia.

and then even the European Commission so

carefully opened the door.

>> So obviously at some point there will

have to be talks also with uh with with

President Putin

>> and at the same time the European Union

also floated the idea to appoint a

special envoy to lead the conversation

on behalf of all the 27 member states

although no specific name was been put

forward. So there seemed to be some

momentum for more European countries to

talk to Russia. However, last week that

momentum started to shift apparently and

things are now quite unclear what the

general way forward should be. But what

is clear is that there is under the

surface a huge internal rift because

since last week there are plenty of

signals. There are plenty of

contradictory statements almost daily I

would say about what to do and it

started no surprise there by the Uber

rock Kayakalas who of course is dead

against any conversation with Russia.

She since long has emphasized her role.

Uh I think she con she looks at it as a

divine task to convince and notch other

European member states to maintain a

hardline against Russia and specifically

avoiding any meetings with any Russian

official.

>> I can't say it publicly here but I have

managed to convince some countries to

not have meetings with uh Putin. Now

last week Kaya Kalas went in overdrive

and she said that instead of focusing on

who should talk to Putin and that was

the conversation was going on since last

December, the European countries should

devote their energy to further crippling

the Russian war economy or the Russian

war machine. and she said that Putin

should first make tangible concessions

before the European even would consider

to pick up the phone and talk to Russia.

And of course, Ka Kalas is also now

working on the 20th or something like

that. People would forget count uh the

20th sanction package against Russia,

which is her responsibility.

>> I'm sure you know there's been a lot of

talk lately about the possibility of

reopening diplomatic channels with

Russia. Emanuel Makon and Georgia Melon

are among those who call for this

re-engagement to happen to avoid

depending on the White House diplomacy,

which as you know is not always

predictable. There's still no unanimity

on the issue, but where exactly do you

stand? Do you think the time has come to

pick up the phone and call the Kremlin

and who should do it? Should it be you?

Should it be one of the 27 leaders? Or

should we spend six months trying to

find a special envoy of some kind? We

can't be the the demanders here that you

know we go to Russia talk to us. What we

are working on is putting more pressure

on Russia so that they would go from

pretending to negotiate to actually

negotiate.

>> And here she was obviously backed by her

native Estonia. Remember that Kas was

four years the prime minister of

Estonia. And there the foreign minister

said also last week that as long as

Russia is not changing its course of

action and remains keeps its aggressive

stance against Ukraine uh there is no

possible way for us to engage with

Russia nor should we offer Russia away

out of its isolation. That was the

statement from the Estonian foreign

minister. Now it seems to be that

Germany in the meantime also changed

strategy and changed course because

despite mess opening the door for talks

as we just saw and that was only a few

weeks ago two days ago the German

foreign ministry actually opposed direct

talks with Russia because they say Putin

has maximalist demands and they say that

Putin gives no indication whatsoever

that he wants peace. This of course is

then direct contradiction to what Mertz

said a few weeks ago.

So you have now a situation where

Germany's changing position. Kalas being

her usual self and there are some other

countries of course also following this

hardline approach. But then opposed to

this you have France wanting to move

forward with talking and there just

yesterday and that is February 3rd

little Napoleon announced that technical

level preparations are now underway to

resume dialogue with Russia and France

was not alone to pushing back against

Kalas because a day before mighty

Luxembourg got also engaged and there

the Luxembourg minister of foreign

affairs said that okay we need to talk

to Russia if we want a solution and of

course he knows very well that Kalas is

not the right person to talk to the

Russians we need to talk with them if we

want a solution if we can't talk to them

we won't find a solution and if if I was

too small to do it if then President

Mron or someone else is able to

represent Europe because they don't want

to talk to to Kayakalas but um but we I

think without talks we won't find

solutions

>> so so This tells us that clearly that

this contentious issue of re-engagement

with Russia is now very very very high

on the European agenda. But at the same

time there is an obvious huge rift under

the surface. There you have the two

Europe's two major countries Germany and

France directly at odds with each other.

Germany says we should not engage.

France said we should engage. Now this

of course until now is very confusing

and we will see over the next week how

it plays out but obviously there are

different trends at the moment. Now I

think we need to make a few points here.

Now first of all there are the recent

talks now in Abu Dhabi between the

Russians, the Americans and also

Ukrainian officials and obviously there

is no Europe. This is not new. Europe

has never been engaged in these peace

talks. And now, of course, when the

Americans are talking with the Russians,

not with good success, but anyway,

they're still talking. Europe is still

not there. They're on the sidelines. So,

Europe is internally debating and

fighting about what to do while while in

the real world, uh, they're increasingly

left behind. Secondly, of course, what

you still see is that over the last four

years and now it's getting it's reaching

a boiling point. I would say there is

still no strategy in place of how to

deal with Russia. And of course, this

point was also very clearly made by the

Belgian Prime Minister B.

And by the way, the waiver, I encourage

you to look more at what he says. There

are very nice clips on YouTube from him

because he points out sometimes very

clearly what is going on in Europe and

gives a very clear view behind the

scenes. Now BU should know is an

Atlanticist. He loves America but at the

same time he's also a skeptic of Europe.

America is no longer supporting Ukraine.

They're selling us the arms and we are

stuck with bills crazy energy prices. We

have to finance Ukraine and we're

unccapable of delivering the military

capacity to actually put an end to the

conflict. So we're financing a war with

no strategy. We're giving money to

Ukraine autoo nonfaraoh. We don't have

the iron. So we give the we give the

gold but to do what exactly to keep that

war going for

>> what should we do? The third point I

want to make is that you have all these

statements from mro me kalas and so

forth and I'm always thinking like who

are they actually talking for? I mean

all these statements are not only very

confusing but also I don't understand

who are they actually representing who

are they talking for? If Macau says we

should re-engage with Russia is he

talking about France? Is he talking

about the European Union? Is he talking

about the coalition of the willing and

the same for me when Mer says okay we

should not engage with Russia does it

mean Germany doesn't want to do that

[snorts] or does he think nobody in

Europe should do that gala is the same

thing she is supposed to be the top

diplomat in Europe when she says we

cannot engage with Russia what does that

mean because obviously France and other

countries are not following are not

listening so this is very clear there is

no unity there is no one voice it's very

confusing who is actually saying what

and what do they actually mean and who

are they really representing? I mean are

they talking for the Baltic states? Are

they talking for Western Europe? Is the

European Union? Is it one single

country? It's really very confusing and

this of course shows clearly there's a

huge problem in balancing internal

domestic issues with the general

European issues. Um there are of course

a lot of egos who are at loggerheads

with each other jocking for positions

and so forth. And maybe here most

importantly is to say there is actually

now in Europe a very quiet slow shift in

the balance of power and this is between

France and Germany mess and mro to be

more specific. Now France has since long

wanted Germany to play a more ambitious

role in supporting France's grand

ambitions for Europe. But now since a

year obviously Berlin and me is flexing

more their muscle than France was

expecting. And Germany now is on track

well wants to be on track put it like

this to build a far bigger army than

France. [snorts]

And of course there is now the French

fear that the German defense budget will

be double of France within so many

years. And there's another thing.

Germany will be expected to be the only

European economy in the global top 10 by

2050. So it seems that Germany is

flexing its muscle a little bit too much

for the likes of a macro. And of course

that is an issue. That's something he

cannot stand. Now, Max is also competing

with Mar for attention. They both are

ballerinas, primadonas if you may. And

both of them are now increasingly

putting themselves in the spotlight and

on the front line of European politics

and that is very clear from the

statements both are making the moment.

These contradictions in what they both

say is just another sign of what is

really happening beneath the service and

France or Germany are now actually more

and more increasingly getting in

competition with each other. And what

you see is now a lack of unity, not one

voice actually undermining of its own

position and a general exposure I would

say of this weak leadership. And to

round it up for today, Europe is

obviously still struggling with the

famous question allegedly said by uh

Kissinger, the former US Secretary of of

State. Uh he said, "Well, who do I call

if I want to call Europe?" And that's a

very famous statement that allegedly he

asked because obviously there is not one

person in Europe who can decide on these

things. And Europe has been looking for

its answer for this answer to this

question for decades. when clearly it

still hasn't solved that problem. So

what will happen over the next days,

weeks, months? It is pretty hard to say.

Of course, events on the battlefield

will decide the end result and sooner or

later Europe will need to talk to Russia

whether it wants to or not. And

obviously the more Russia is gaining

ground, the more Europe will be forced

to start some kind of negotiations. Now

obviously the top diplomat Kakalas will

not be there to do that because Russia

doesn't want to talk to her. So what is

Europe going to do with her? Well, if

your top diplomat cannot or doesn't want

to talk to Russia and Russia doesn't

want to talk to her, then what is her

role? That will be a very big question

popping up over the next months. I

assume now I think that Kalas is

actually on the way out. I think that

many European countries had enough of

her. And of course, as mentioned, Russia

doesn't want to talk to her. China

doesn't really want to talk to her. Even

United States is not interested in

talking to Kalas and even reportedly

when um Kalas was appointed as the high

commissioner, it apparently Mako was one

of the big backers of of Kalas. But

clearly now when Mau said no, we should

talk to Russia and Kalas has exactly the

opposite. That seems to be a kind of a

problem. It seems to be the Macau is not

really supporting Kalas anymore. And of

course, it also was reported two weeks

ago or last week that allegedly Kalas

called Ursula Vanderlaya a dictator. And

of course, Ursula is her boss. So, it

seems to me that if you put all these

pieces of that puzzle together that

Kalas is trying to pull her weight, but

she's in fact very frustrated and she's

now losing support left, right, and

center. And I think she's in very dire

straits. I guess she has made a few too

many enemies by now. Now, of course, I'm

speculating. Nobody knows for sure, but

it seems to me she is in kind of

trouble. Now, time will tell. We will

see. Maybe we will know more in a few

days and in a few weeks. God knows. But

it's clear that in Europe there is now

an increased sense of desperation of

what to do. They're discussing about

strategy. Different opinions are popping

up. There's a lack of clear thinking and

a lack of strategy in general as

mentioned, but we'll see in a few weeks

what the result will be. Anyway, time

will tell, but it's clear that now in

Europe under the surface that tensions

are reaching boiling point. I would say

there are two different directions uh

coming forward. One is talking to

Russia, the other one is not talking to

Russia. Uh there is of course still

obviously still a lack of strategy as BA

pointed out in the video we just saw and

it will be very interesting to see what

happens over the next days, weeks or

months. All right, thank you for

watching and we see each other very

soon. Bye-bye.