HOLY TESLA STOCK

Well, Tesla stock is absolutely

skyrocketing today, and it's because of

what Robin just said, combined with some

concerns about robotics, that Tesla is

already fighting. Look, spoiler alert.

Robin just said sneakily in a CNBC

interview, which we're going to watch

all of it, but I respect your time, so

I'm going to give you an upfront here.

She just said they've got potentially

two new models of vehicles coming out,

which remember at the beginning of this

year, we went into 2025 thinking we were

going to get new lowerc cost vehicles.

The big asterisk was, do they just mean

lower cost trims like with the new Model

Y that now has has cloth seats and

they've basically just paired down the

quality of the vehicle to introduce a

lowerc cost vehicle, which is not what

we want. Then of course, Reuters came

out and suggested Elon Musk has quietly

killed off a $25,000 vehicle, which Elon

Musk called fake news, but then ended up

being true. Now it looks like as daddy's

come back, it looks like there's hope

that we're going to get new vehicles and

Robin just slipped it because now it

seems like the rumor mill is turning

that Tesla's going to bring lowerc cost

vehicles back, actually new models. And

Robin mentioning it on CNBC suggests

that aha daddy could finally be back and

we could finally be back to lowercost

vehicles which is helping Tesla stock

today rocket over 5.7%

just so far intraday which is absolutely

phenomenal because if you look after

earnings we actually had a perfect

bounce on the Kevin 414 line and in

addition to that perfect bounce on that

414 line this morning in pre-market

market. We had a perfect bounce right

here on the 43399

line and that was driven by commentary

around these new models and the success

of the Optimus robot. Now, where do we

sit fundamentally

and what did Robin say and what concerns

are there for Tesla and what did we hear

about in the Tesla earnings call from

Elon Musk? We have to break all of that

down and we're going to break all of

that down. I just want to mention two

things. Get that out of the way. Number

one, I just tweeted just seconds ago

here that congratulations House Hack

also now doing business as Reinvest. We

raised almost half a million dollars in

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hours ago, I tweeted, "Wow, in 24 hours

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almost half a million dollars in just

the last 36 hours. So, uh, as I wrote

here in the tweet or ex post, I promised

to put this to the highest and best use.

So, thank you to all those of you. If

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remember this video is not a

solicitation. Just go to reinvest.co or

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you can learn about the investment and

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check out the Meet Kevin membership.

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Wednesday. That'll be Federal Reserve

Day. Okay, so with that out of the way,

let's understand what's going on.

There's a lot of concern about hands

when it comes to robotics. Now, we've

known this for quite a while. We've been

talking about the problem with robotics

for a long time being actuators and the

actual motors. And this is exactly what

Elon echoed in the earnings call. Now,

Robin is going full steam ahead going on

CNBC interviews to talk up the dexterity

of these robots and how it's fine. We

don't have to worry about these

actuators because Ro Optimus is already

killing it.

There's an asterisk on all of this. And

I think the easiest way to think about

this is understand that today we don't

yet have robots that can do the same

thing over and over again that are

humanoids. Now, what they can do is make

for a great show. And that is a little

bit of an asterisk to the robotic

revolution, but that doesn't stop

Tesla's stock from being enthusiastic on

not just margin debts at all-time highs

now of well over $1.1 trillion historic

high that we've ever seen for margin.

Tesla is one of the largest retail held

stocks ever. It's certainly a top 10

holding of retail in total.

Robin gives us the greatest optimism

that Tesla might be ahead of the

robotics problems and his talk about two

new vehicles. Really, really exciting.

Now, in just a moment, we're going to

break down the valuation for Tesla on a

spreadsheet. But first, let's listen to

Robin's comments and we'll add some

commentary to it. Of course,

>> sitting together 10 years from now, will

we think of Tesla as a car company or

will it be a robot company? You know,

just even seeing Becky getting those

gummies, being handed the gummies by

>> Optimus is

>> being handed the gummies by Optimus.

Now, just because Sarah Eisen is into

those marijuana gummies, okay, we don't

know that they're marijuana gummies, but

doesn't [clears throat] actually mean

that the robots are really good at the

tasks we need robots to be good at for.

See, the big problem we face with robots

isn't that they can't be trained to do

one thing over and over again. It's that

can they do one thing over and over

again without those motors burning out.

And that's something that we haven't

seen capable yet in robotic hands. In

fact, that's exactly what Elon Musk

himself transparently talks about. Take

a look at the earnings call. Bringing

Optimus to market is an incredibly

difficult task. So, I don't want to

downplay the difficulty of Optimus. It

is especially difficult to create a hand

that is dextrous and capable just like a

human hand. But it's more than being

dextrous and capable. Elon doesn't even

talk about the engineering challenge of

being able to replicate this over

thousands of repetitions because it's

not just creating the actuators that are

in the forearm and the muscles that

control the fingertips. It is actually

having these robots be able to do this

in a way that can fold your laundry or

do your household tasks for hours and

hours in a row. See, Elon talks about

the value of humanoids being potentially

5x that of a human because they don't

have to take breaks. They they can

literally operate 24/7. Uh which is why

Elon Musk is so optimistic uh about

robots. Here he literally says if

Optimus uh you know can be manufactured

at scale they could probably achieve 5x

the productivity of a person for a year

because they could operate 24/7 and they

could be plugged in. Now there are a few

things Elon's doing here. Number one is

he's really trying to project the future

potential cash flow of the business by

saying hey like these are five times

more productive so the value of an

Optimus robot is huge and he is right

about that. The risk factor number one

is do we have the battery technology?

And the answer is no. First of all,

China has most of the battery

technology. Tesla just fell out of the

top 10 battery manufacturers in the

world. Most of them are Chinese

companies. Now, by saying that you could

just have the Optimus plugged in the

entire time. This is absolutely true, by

the way, for a factory line. I've

regularly argued that you could just

plug these in through a tethered

environment so they don't fall over and

break uh if they accidentally trip. uh

or I mean there's no reason a humanoid

robot really needs to walk around. It's

one of the reasons why I've been so

bullish on Symbotic. They're a robot

manufacturer for um forklifts, right? Uh

manufacturing robotic manufacturer. And

we've been bullish on them since about

20 this 2182 line over here. You know,

it's more than 3x since then. So, I

mean, it's symbolic. Gez, it's up 9%

just today. I mean, this is this has

been in our alpha reports. It's been in

our Meet Kevin membership. We've been

talking about this and fundamentally

analyzing this for a while in our stock

tab uh in the uh the stocks group where

we do our fundamental analysis for

example. We regularly talk about

companies just like this. But what's

important here is that symbotic is so

different from an from a humanoid

robotic manufacturer because they're

designing robotics that are designed for

repetitive action. What really the

humanoid

revolution is looking to do is

capitalize on our own desire not to have

to do things around our house. Load the

dishwasher, fold the laundry, clean the

house, you know, babysit the child,

change the child's diaper, you know,

whatever. If we can imagine a robot

doing the boring things for us like go

mow the grass, whatever in sort of a

universal manner, it actually becomes a

very uh provocative investment thesis

because many of us would look and say,

"Hey, I would love to have a humanoid

robotic just do all this boring stuff

for me that could go work all the time

for me or on my behalf." It's so

provocative that of course it becomes a

naturally desirable investment

that we want to make. Tesla is basically

the biggest humanoid robotic startup.

And it's that provociveness that's

driving the stock. It's not fundamentals

right now. It's the provociveness of

wow, not only can this create massive

cash flow, but the hope that we'll have

to work less plus the technicals right

now and enthusiasm around Elon Stock

that and margin debt levels. That's

what's driving Tesla stock right now,

not the fundamentals. We'll look at the

fundamentals in just a moment. Recognize

also that Robin right now is on a

mission to get Elon Musk his stock comp.

So, she's going to drop nuggets that are

in favor of Elon getting his stockcom

because that's her job right now is make

sure not only she gets her stock

bonuses, but Elon gets his stock bonuses

because otherwise there's this hinted

risk that well maybe Elon's just not

going to develop humanoid robots. So, of

course, they're basically doing a road

show to get people to vote for Elon's

stock plan. The sales pitch is, hey,

sure, Elon might become a trillionaire

if he hits all these milestones, but

you'll be rich, too. You know, you'll

make a 10x on your money or whatever

you'll make on your money if you invest

in Tesla stock and we actually, you

know, achieve these goals. So, let's

listen in to some more of this pitching.

Just know this is a sales pitch for

people to vote for the stock plan.

>> Is that what it is? And and how how

close are we to true dexterity? Because

you know people always say that that

robots can do a lot but they they still

can't fold laundry for example.

>> Oh well Optimus can fold laundry. I've

actually has a pretty gentle grasp with

the gummies that he could have squished

once or twice part of the road show. Oh

well see we don't have dexterity

problems. Our robot can already fold

laundry. Our robot can do this, right?

But it can it fold laundry for a

thousand hours in a row or even 10 hours

in a row? No, of course not. We're

nowhere near that. That's the big issue

with robotics today.

>> Like he did just now and he went back

and picked him up carefully. He's pretty

gentle.

>> Exactly. Right. So, I've been in the lab

with Optimus. He can fold laundry. He

can wipe uh the table down really well.

He can hand things to you. You can

actually shake hands with him. um the

the um

>> this is in my opinion just to be clear

that we are like so far away from

humanoid robots and and I'm not trying

to be bearish on it because it it it's

it's a future. I'm just today bullish on

robots that are just sitting like

mounted to a manufacturing surface and

robotic arms just doing stuff over and

over again, you know, the same motion

over and over again. You know, that's

where the money is. Okay, that's that's

where the big PP is right now. pricing

power of robotics. Humanoids are a

provocative vision. They sell us hope

that we could be lazy bums and that

people will throw money at. Okay, so

like that's what this is. It's a public

startup basically for that. I mean, why

do you think there's so much talk about

the hand here? Well, I mean, frankly,

because if you want a humanoid rather

than, you know, one fixed robot, you

need uh a a hand that's not going to

burn out, you know? You need the hand to

last. Uh it's going to take a while.

>> The tactile nature of his hand is

actually really uh very good. And so,

>> I wasn't supposed to.

>> This is a direct counter, by the way, to

the Wall Street Journal article here.

see the Wall Street Journal article uh

from two days ago from Saturday.