Forget Stocks | The Housing Great Reset *JUST* Got Worse.

well we've got three massive pieces of housing data that are out and you've got

to know about these whether you're watching this now or you're watching

this three months from now the data that you're going to learn here and the

information in this is going to help prepare you for where to go shopping for

Real Estate when this Market continues to crash because I'm specifically going

to go through some locations that are really getting hurt the most we're gonna

break it all down folks I just want you to remember

back in January remember how we talked about how the bad part of housing price

is falling isn't that housing prices are going to fall which we knew would have

happened we knew prices would come down because rates were going up that was

simple like my seven-year-old could have told us that

but the real problem is not that rates are pushing prices down it's that price

is going down leads to media coverage of prices going down and the fear that goes

along with that is painful that is when you get real price declines so you've

now got Bloomberg running headline articles saying things like say goodbye

to the housing Bull Run and Barons running headlines with quote the seven

percent mortgages are near and they're basically here now especially with

movements in the 10-year today and don't even get me started on Zoom Town Zoom is

now being blamed for sixty percent of housing price increases in certain areas

and just wait until this reverses but fear folks fear is what leads to

cancellations and pauses and purchases and the collapse of home buyer demand

all you have to do to see this is look at Lennar the nation's second largest

homebuilder look at their last earnings report and if you don't want to look at

that don't worry about it I made a whole video breaking it down you can see my

real estate playlist all my real estate videos are in order just click the link

down below you can go to metcaven.com links and I'll put a link there for the

real estate playlist for you greatest issue

ishitions and price reduction demands in their category three markets which

basically ones that are suffering the worst although all categories of the

Lennar markets are suffering but today we have three core pieces of data that

we've got to talk about that are going to help guide us in terms of maybe where

we want to go do some shopping now keep in mind I will be personally meeting a

lot of you real estate agents out there in various different markets around the

country because that's going to be my job with house hack is traveling and

studying markets in person you have to do real estate in person you can't do it

sitting behind a computer you've got to know the market in person when I was

selling my homes uh the the 85 of my real estate portfolio and I started

selling them at the end of January beginning February and I sold them

through June I promise you I saw the crest because I saw it in person let me

give you an example I put a house up on the market the first week of February I

have an open house on a Sunday I get swore armed with 50 to 60 people during

that open house in a one-hour window there were so many cars on the street

which is usually empty I couldn't even find a parking spot I had to walk about

15 houses just to get to my house I was selling it was a mad house absolutely

crazy contrast that with June I put a place on the market same style of open

house same marketing multiple properties I got maybe five people okay that was

February to June just picture now compared to June okay like things are

worse now okay but it's that kind of stuff that you can feel and you see it

way before it shows up in the data now we are going to talk about the data

because the data is important to look at as well because it it guides us to a

specific location of where potentially maximum pain is keep in mind if you are

a real estate agent and you want me to explore your area make sure you're part

of the programs on building your wealth down below because in Discord there's a

whole section for agents where you can put basically your business card just

type it up with your business card into certain areas like the 20 to 30

locations or whatever and then I'll be able to go through those and say hey I'm

coming to your area this time are you available I'd love to see some

properties love to learn about your market and then that way we can pick

from those for house hack which is accepting wires for the first round with

the largest warrants uh until Friday if you're accredited you can go there now

non-accredited stay tuned okay so first piece of data this morning morning 6 a.m

this morning we got the FHA home price data year over year we are still up 13.9

percent on home prices which is great but anybody looking at just the year

over year chart is missing the bigger picture which is that Nationwide home

prices in July I have a bone to pick with why this is July and not like

August but anyway home prices in July we're down point six percent

that is an annualized decline folks of 7.2 percent on top of what we've already

seen we've already seen Nationwide home prices come down 5.5 percent now we're

declining at a rate of 7.2 percent just adding those together assuming the

trajectory does not get worse means we are already spelling out a 12.7

reduction in home prices now I know many of you are going to look at this and go

thank God maybe I'll finally be able to afford a

home don't get terribly excited we are not

going back in my opinion to levels that we saw in like 2011 12 or 13.

probably going back to pre-pandemic levels maybe even lower than

pre-pandemic levels because rates are so ridiculously high I just got an update

that Neil kashgari is coming out squashing with Charles Evans said this

morning Neil kashgari saying we're not going to make the same mistake as last

time we're going to keep rates higher for longer

all that means is more permanent damage to the real estate market that's all it

means now we're going to talk about specific areas as well and some other

data sets that we really need to address but here's where you gotta know

right here this chart this chart tells us what home prices did and where these

things happened the worst from June 22nd to July 22nd let me actually pause there

for a moment just say is it not ridiculous that this housing price data

doesn't actually come to us until two months later how stupid is that this is

like such lagging data now it's still useful because we're going to look at

where the pain is in different markets but I'm telling you if you're looking at

this to guide you for home prices it's already way worse than this you have

here's the way to know what really is happening

boots on the ground you pick up the phone you see a three and two that last

month sold for four hundred thousand dollars you call the listing agent on a

three and two that's a similar square footage that just went into escrow okay

so one closed last month let's say for Foreigner K you find the same one that's

up for sale again similar condition hopefully you call up that agent go hey

or have your agent do it it's usually easier when agents do it hey you know

just curious uh your house over here on crestshire uh did you all get close to

ask I see you're asking 389 and if they tell you oh wow we had so many offers we

went over then that's a good sign that maybe home price declines have

stabilized if they say something like ah well you know uh I can't tell you

exactly okay no problem I don't want you to have to tell me exactly that's fine I

respect that I mean if they tell you exactly great but just keep asking

questions right hey uh just wondering you like did you have a lot of offers

like was it really competitive or has it slowed down oh yeah it's really slowed

down a lot oh so what me and maybe got like one offer two offers you yeah I

just got one off or okay so so safe to say maybe like not full price but but

close right yeah yeah probably yeah okay well they just basically told you they

got 375 okay now you can measure a decline you have to know how to talk to

people okay basic basic real estate real estate is people you have to respect

people you have to honor people you have to be physical with people like I don't

mean like beating them up okay I mean like you gotta meet people you gotta

shake hands that's real estate stocks ain't that stocks is 27 different

monitors and the sticks okay different world anyway that said where's the paint

right here folks here we go let's see what we got so the uh us as a whole

declined at an average pace of about 7.2 percent on a monthly basis in July but

look at this folks the worst out of all of them the Pacific

and the New England area this is really interesting because it's really implying

that the most damaged locations are actually the coastlines so I like to

write these things down coastlines most damaged which is interesting to me

because coastlines are the most desirable generally uh areas of land

mass that we have in America especially Southern California coastline which

don't worry we're going to be bashing on California in just a moment but there is

nowhere like Southern California that has the weather like Southern California

in the United States that's it the only place in the entire United States that

has the Mediterranean climate also known as a Chaparral climate is the southern

coast of California that's it not Inland California not Central not Northern

California not anywhere else in the United States you want that weather

SoCal Coastline that's it but this is actually where you're seeing some of the

damage some of the highest damage is along the Pacific and we'll talk about

specifically some of this some areas but after that the next most

damaged area appears to be the mountain area here so I wonder if this would be

considered like Utah or like parts of Idaho or something like that you

actually have the least amount of damage in the uh East and West North Central

Area so so kind of that upper middle section that core section of America you

almost have no housing price declines uh and and I mean you had larger housing

price declines in the month prior so it's not like you're immune over here

and we expect more damage to happen but relative to the where the declines are

the worst the worst declines appear to be happening consistently in the

mountain areas and in the Pacific region and the New England areas

South Atlantic this would be like South Florida

here's another area that potentially is starting to get hit although they did

have positive price momentum the month before that month over month but it does

look like potentially that Peak has hit so it looks like you hit your first like

the first area to hit Peak was uh the Pacific so that was probably the first

area to hit Peak and I'm looking at that as the first one over here to turn

negative and then the next ones to turn negative

have been New England by looking right here so two

uh east north central three west north central four and the mountain five so

these all sort of hit Peak next and then presumably we're going to see Peak next

over here at West South Central East uh South Central and Mid-Atlantic it's

gonna be like your Mississippi and Louisiana and then Texas okay

fascinating so this gives us a little bit about locale

but what else do we know about Locale huh well let me tell you about Locale

listen to this San Francisco okay a month over month

this is insane because when when you're going down at this speed that I'm about

to tell you you can multiply it by 12 and roughly approximate where you could

be after a year now you do not compound this I'm not

going to go through the math as to why right now but we're just trying to

figure out an annualized rate annualized rate is just simply times 12. don't try

to get fancy with exponents here okay 3.6 percent is the decline San Francisco

faced in one month this is insane but a 3.6 decline is

equal to a negative 43.2 percent annualized pace for San

Francisco that bubble has popped but it ain't just San Francisco which is

a big part of the Pacific it's Seattle Seattle folks down

2.5 percent that is a 30

annualized decline and San Diego is an immune either you're

almost going down the whole Coastline of the Pacific it's bad San Diego down two

percent which annualizes to an annualized rate of decline of 24 percent

just so you can visualize that home prices are declining there are two

important charts that you now need to look at number one is this look the

reality is yes home prices on a nominal level have barely moved down this is why

we still see year-over-year gains because look at the chart obviously if

you look back a year ago from here you're going to be higher by that amount

but the point is this has happened the trajectory has changed you see that

little inflection point small right now I told you about it right here right

before it happened I told you about it right here and I'm telling you about it

right here that's why you want to be subscribed to the channel

but we've been talking about this since January this inflection point coming

and there's still time but I would not be surprised to see a

substantial uh move to the downside here especially with higher rates or longer

if you want to visualize the inflection point a little bit better take a look at

this chart right here this shows you a month over month decline in home prices

and it shows you that for the first time all the way since over here in 2011. for

the first time the case Shiller has officially gone negative this is your

second piece of data first the fhfa data now the case Shiller is negative as well

that's your second piece of data in this video Okay C chart all positive

except for here and if you look at where we got the big gains look at the big

gains folks that right there is a bubble that's called a housing bubble this was

sustainable and that's why I wouldn't be surprised

if we adjust back to not only these sorts of levels over here but

potentially over correct a little bit further because interest rates are so

aggressive right now to levels of like 2018 2019.

which that is a buying opportunity that's why I'm creating the startup

house hack to take advantage of this buying opportunity that I believe is

happening that I think is a once in a lifetime opportunity if you could buy

real estate yourself do it I'm not saying you have to be part of househack

but if you don't have the time or or the knowledge to handle real estate I mean

you could always join the courses on building your wealth zero to millionaire

real estate investing course do-it-yourself Property Management

course the real estate agent course you can learn everything I know so it's like

I I will give you everything I know I'm not worried about you competing with me

and house hack they're gonna be plenty of deals for me at house I am not

worried about that whatsoever but you definitely want to make sure you

take advantage of this real estate cycle now the third piece of data that we have

to understand is that 60 of home price appreciation was due to remote work

that's insane so that means areas like Boise Idaho

could potentially see a complete reversal of that so let me give you an

example if home prices went up 50 percent

and 60 of those so about 30 of that fifty percent was due to remote work if

remote work plummets like 80 percent roughly we could see home prices fall 24

in that kind of remote remote work region solely because of remote work

add remote work or take remote work that 24 decline add to that interest rates

buyer purchasing power down 40 add to that fear

you're gonna have a devastating reversal in certain Zoom towns

those are potentially also opportunities but you have to be careful of something

called a real estate value trap with househack we are only going to invest in

high quality areas that will be areas people want to move to no matter if

they're Zoom or not that is critical

and so you have to find those areas yourself and I'm going to be exploring

the country for those so if you are a real estate agent join the courses down

below drop your information in the uh the locations that I have

listed and if you want to suggest other locations there's a discussion forum you

have to be a course member to see accesses any of the courses works and

you'll also be able to join me in the daily live streams but anyway this is

bad for Real Estate it's happening and it's getting real

we're just getting the data the official data here with a stupid two-month delay

which is moronic I've been telling you this since before

it happened because there are ways you can read the

real estate market that don't rely on these National statistics that lag so

much imagine what these statistics are going to say when we get the

year-over-year numbers and March April May June of next year in 2023. combine

that with high rates that's when you have Panic good luck my friends