The Housing Market Collapse is BEGINNING.

hey everyone me kevin here so i wanted

to talk a little bit about housing

because this is the first time in the

last four years that we have seen a

year-over-year increase of more than one

percent of active listings with price

drops it's an inflection point and this

is sort of uh something that we start

looking at and we say okay well we've

got an inflection point to the upside

and price drops okay we're starting to

see that that doesn't mean it's going to

sustain but it's just one of those early

signs it's like okay that's something to

pay attention to but see

real estate in my opinion is one of

those things that in order to really

understand what's going on in the market

you've got to look beyond larger

statistics you can use those as clues to

either corroborate what you're seeing or

to be sort of a weapon that says no no

no whatever what i'm seeing or feeling

is wrong but real estate

it's always local uh however

national impacts like of interest rates

going up you know three percent in in a

matter of four months uh will be felt in

every local market but here are some of

the things that i'm seeing now so back

in january i made a prediction that we

would see excess demand in housing

evaporate but that that would take time

that would probably take until the end

of 2022 because you go through a cycle

first you get interest rates that go up

in january and february and then what

happens is you still have people who

have their rates locked in who are

closing deals in february and march but

then the people who are looking for new

homes to buy in february and march who

would actually be closing in april and

may are people who say well

you know i i have a higher interest rate

to deal with now and rates are going up

i may as well

get in now before rates go up even

further so you have this excess

excitement to get in quickly right

that's beginning to wane

first of all the people who had low

rates locked in from you know december

and early january that's over now the

people who are uh hunting in in march

and april who are excited about okay

let's get in before the housing market

uh uh sees rates go up even further

they're finding places

and so now we're at this potential

tipping point where the next phase of

the housing market would be

well if more sellers decide or even a

consistent amount of sellers as in the

same amount of sellers we have been

seeing decide to put their properties on

the market

even if we stay stable if we end up with

fewer buyers now who are willing to get

mortgages at uh at six percent uh then

you have a problem because then you

start building inventory that is to come

so i expect inventory to actually start

building in

late may june and july see a lot of

people who are

you know comment experts the comment

karen

they leave comments saying oh i don't

know what you're talking about kevin the

housing market's not slowing there's

still no homes right because it happens

in phases so far phase one is correct

the people who had low rates don't exist

anymore phase two the people who were

fearful of higher rates are disappearing

they're the ones who are like oh no i

better get in fast because rates are

going to keep going up they're

disappearing so now we're at the next

phase of people who are supposed to come

in with new mortgages and what happens

when you look at those statistics oh no

mortgage home applications down 75

yeah right exactly so your your

the excess demand is being absorbed the

new buyer pool will be shrinking

and the next phase after we start seeing

that potential stagnating of inventory

is this where you start seeing increases

in prices that i'm sorry well i'm sorry

increases of price it drops rather right

you start seeing that here may june at

the same time as you see that stagnating

of inventory

then what happens and this is this is

the problem this generally doesn't

happen until probably i would say you

know if you start getting the increase

in price drops now you're not actually

going to see lower selling prices for

probably two to three months uh because

it takes time right to actually transact

real estate you negotiate a lower deal

you negotiate more credits because

buyers have more power deals close for

lower prices

probably start seeing lower prices like

june july august then all of a sudden

when you actually get media starting to

report oh my gosh home prices have

started ticking down even if it's just

home prices are down two percent month

over month all of a sudden people go

oh no we're at the turn and then you get

fear of sellers who oh we're at the turn

not necessarily people who are living in

their homes who are qualified it's not

like people have to sell their homes

right but all it takes is those

investors those institutional investors

who say hey i got a vacancy you know

what rather than release this

i'ma sell it you know may as well take

my attendees now

that's when you get higher inventory

lower buyers more accelerated price

drops and this is why i believe that q3

q4 which is really your december to like

you know end of july time frame uh yeah

more like probably august september

through december maybe even january of

next year that's going to be your

potential point of pain

if inflation remains relatively high and

the fed has to continue with sort of

aggressive and hawkish tone then that

pain is likely to extend into 2023

if the fed u-turns that's a signal for

buying opportunity in real estate and

this is what we're prepping for right

now and this is why i always talk about

like hey like seriously might consider

checking out learning everything that i

know and you know 13 years of knowledge

of being not only a real estate agent uh

licensed contractor licensed lender real

estate broker uh property manager

everything i know

which you can't learn in school

get a download for in the programs on

building your long-term wealth link down

below that's really loud

use that coupon code before may 16th

because the price will have its largest

price increase we've got some big

announcements coming up uh towards the

beginning of june and uh in the middle

of june and so the prices have to go up

before that so take advantage of that

fair heads up here but you know what

what's fascinating to me

is the amount of folks in in you know

the the common

you know geniuses who believe oh no the

real estate market can't fall yes it can

and it will and a lot of folks say well

my market's still getting multiple

offers

yeah so is mine i'm still selling

properties and with the exception of

this property i put on the market on

thursday every other property that i've

listed even as recently as two weeks ago

it's been multiple offers over list

but

i'm already seeing the change and this

is where when we say real estate is

hyper local what we're really saying is

real estate is a people business you

have to understand what the people

involved in the business are feeling let

me give you an example

i put a property on the market the first

week of february this was after i sold

stocks because i thought things were

going to get worse they ended up getting

about 20 worth worse had i not sold

stocks i would have been down an

additional six million dollars rather

than being down 600 an additional six

million dollars right now i'm like with

with some of the options trades i've

made uh some that have been caught well

some that have gone terribly wrong uh

i'm probably about

saved six million maybe up a few hundred

thousand dollars it's been a very nasty

last few weeks from all of my low buys

my tesla buys are great they've been up

but some other ones have gone down i

took some attendees on some things like

end phase but i didn't on things like

trade desk and i got a little nipped on

a firm right which i'm completely out of

and disney's totally nipped me like

socks so like again i'm grateful i have

not lost an additional six and that's a

big deal uh and i'm grateful we're like

at a par place because i do feel that

stocks are relatively near like i feel

like this is the recession right this is

the stock recession uh we are

in my opinion and i've said this many

times relatively near low yeah can we

still extend can we still get more

margin liquidations absolutely that's

going to drive us temporary lower but

i'm not terribly worried about uh that

and and i don't know i don't profess to

be able to uh predict the stock market

as well as real estate i think real

estate is a lot easier because it's

slower moving and so you can have more

patience and time you know you take an

extra two weeks in the stock market it's

moved 10 sometimes right real estate's a

little slower than that but again the

folks right now going oh we'll still get

you multiple offers if you're not seeing

the difference of when i first started

selling real estate february week one

where when i hold an open house i've all

of a sudden got a line of 50 couples

like we used to do covet disclosures we

don't actually do them anymore kova

disclosures and i would have i would

look through my disclosures on my ipads

and be like oh my gosh i have 50

signatures for 50 like couples and

families walking through my properties

not individuals like 50 forms you know

one per family and i'm like this is

insane this is crazy like this is what

the peak of the market feels like

the last place i put on the market dude

i got one phone call and i'm like

what the place i put on the market

before that i had four showings

and i under listed that one with four

showings it still ended up selling for

over list but still like the delta

is so clear it's literally playing out

the way

that we've been expecting with the real

estate market so far it's been playing

out exp as expected with the stock

market with the exception of about 10

points in the qqq because i really

thought that 318 level was bottom we're

about 310 right now so i'm a little off

with the target on that bottom but uh

but but that's okay you know if if we go

to like 280 then then obviously like i

screwed up uh but uh if we saw something

like 280 personally i i really think

it'd still be a buying off because it

probably come as a sharp decline

at market open on margin calls i think

we had a terrible week of margin calls

this week uh and uh so so just be

careful be very very careful if you're

on margin like get the hell out of

margin anyway sorry i don't mean to turn

this real estate video into stock video

just saying like so far

we have expected volatility we have

expected what has been happening

now even though i've been expecting

these things it doesn't again make us

perfect with every single move we make

but we do our best right if we can save

a lot of losses and prevent a lot of

losses and we can make gains where we

can

take them

anyway hopefully that's helpful now what

does that mean for my target for

acquiring again

it depends on

inflation if we actually start seeing

inflation peak

certainly if it hasn't already peaked in

march then within the next six months

is as long as we see that peak

bottom real estate wouldn't surprise me

if it's somewhere between q4 and q2 of

next year inflation stays hot real

estate's gonna get whacked even more

so

for me the plan is raise capital now for

real estate don't buy now

prepare now

speaking of which if you want to learn

more about big plans coming make sure to

drop your email and whether you're an

accredited investor or not at

metkevin.com

join

met kevin.com join especially if you

want to be one of those people who's

able to shop for real estate at the

bottom of the market not like the stupid

reits that are buying at the top of the

market okay

anyway

thanks for watching folks good luck out

there bye