wtf elon musk... rivian...

everyone me kevin here well there are

two things happening that you would have

never expected that are happening number

one elon is going off the deep end again

on a sunday morning and number two the

41 off coupon code brought to you by me

on the courses on building your wealth

will be expiring soon

folks take a look at the one you came

for and that's elon musk here you go

elon musk going off the deep end again

bernie sanders this morning tweeting we

must demand that the extremely wealthy

pay their fair share period okay i tried

my best and then elon musk of course i

keep forgetting that you're still alive

it seems like after

elon musk called ron wyden's profile

picture a picture that makes ron wyden

look like he just came uh it seems like

after elon went to that level elon has

unlocked complete troll mode and uh now

nobody

no nobody is spared of the extreme elon

troll uh now we've got a few things to

talk about here number one is going to

be this uh then number two we're going

to talk about elon's share sales what's

left and then we got to talk a little

bit about tesla rivian for a moment but

uh folks yeah this is this is elon here

and then elon did also follow this up

with want me to sell more stock bernie

just say the word

which uh

to some is going to create some level of

uncertainty especially certain tesla

stock owners who don't really want the

share price to go down in the near term

because the signals that elon musk might

sell more shares than his already 10

percent commitment

even though he's not even done selling

his full 10 percent yet

which

could also mean that this tweet is just

sort of a reference to you know

basically beating bernie to say yes i

want you to pay more and then uh elon's

like all right i'll finish selling or i

want you know i'll finish selling the

rest of my uh 10 stakes so that way i

can pay more in taxes essentially right

now this is where it's worth bringing up

how much elon musk has sold so far and

shout out to hey dave7 on twitter dave

lee on youtube for putting together a

spreadsheet here you can copy and paste

form four into a spreadsheet program and

then manually add these all together or

you could just use dave's cheat sheet

here which is exactly what we're going

to do

so again thank you dave but anyway what

we can see here

is that uh 10 of elon musk's shares

would be somewhere around we know this

would be somewhere around 17 million

elon musk has about 170 million shares

and uh right now elon has only sold

about 6.3 million

meaning we really got about another 10.7

million shares to go which is kind of

crazy to think about because if you take

6.36 million and divide it by about 17

it means that elon musk has really only

sold so far about 37.4 of what he

promised to sell so when you add

together the fact that elon musk still

has about 63.3 percent of his 10

commitment to sell

on top of the fact that now elon is

teasing the idea of potentially selling

even more

you're probably going to end up with a

red day for tesla tomorrow and since we

are in this sort of ev euphoric super

cycle i think there's a good chance that

the other ev manufacturers might do well

while tesla does not

now that's certainly not fundamental

that would just be on a technical basis

because

take a look at this folks uh when we

jump on over uh to some discussions

about rivian first i want to mention

that gary black i highly respect but i

want to make a

something very clear that i think is

important when we compare tesla to

rivien because i think it's being

forgotten in the narrative especially

amongst all this noise with elon musk

and his wild tweets and tesla stocks

wild gyrations

and and pretty crazy valuation that

makes basically any ev company seem like

they can also hold a candle to tesla i

think it's very important to first

before we go into this remember what

what tesla has that other vehicle

companies do not have and these are

extremely important

number one proof of concept and not just

proof of concept but but proof of sales

these things are actually really

important and they're often understated

when we compare to new companies because

a new company can have a new idea uh

like oh look we have an electric car too

uh and when the car hasn't actually

proven its sales yet there's a lot of

opium that okay well if tesla did so

well then this company is also going to

do so well it's kind of like the same

opium that you see for lucid great but

they've delivered like 60 cars so let's

see how much they do by the end of the

year uh and so this is where it's also

important to consider like why is pole

star

ggpi what is it ggpi

i can't always forget what the ticker is

ggpi exactly uh the ggpi spec the gore

spec uh why is it that uh that so many

people are getting excited about ggpi

which is taking pole star in the

electric vehicle maker public well uh

you know it's because it seems like

another ev play that's sort of just

being left behind rivien and tesla going

to the moon

but it's important to also see that pole

star has something very different from

tesla and something very different from

rivian so let's line these up at the top

you've got tesla with proven cars

that sell a lot high high demand for

these cars price out the 20 inch

wheelbase model x plaid

on tesla.com and you will be waiting

until march of 2023

for that car to deliver that's insane

that is like an insane wait for a car

now you can still get like the model y

performance at the end of this year i

think december it's like a six week out

delivery uh and then certainly i think

the model threes are all in 2022 at this

point most of the vehicles are in 2022.

but the point is you got tests at the

top with

massive deliveries massive demand

you have pole star

i would actually argue kind of near the

bottom and the reason for that is

they're delivering cars and demand's not

that great

just not that great now i haven't

finished my complete deep dive thesis on

this yet so i don't want this to be

misconstrued as like a bash video like

here's a tesla bull bashing ggpi and

rivia to get no no no no

i think y'all know i try to be as

unbiased as possible uh but you know

when you actually have cars on the

market and people don't care about them

as much there's no sex appeal and you

don't have a self-driving suite as well

as the other

features that tesla has that other car

companies don't have whether that's the

uniqueness of the over air updates over

the air updates the you know changing

your your car horn to different songs or

making your tesla model x dance or

whatever these these sort of unique

easter eggs are all poured part of this

insane tesla culture and so

there's a lot more to tesla than just

slapping a battery in a car just this

morning i drove uh literally a lotus

with a battery in it the original tesla

roadster it is a piece of crap car it is

absolutely terrible it's garbage but it

was the first and it became something

amazing and sexy

if you just take like a mercedes or bmw

and you slap a battery in it you got an

ev but you don't got the culture you

don't got the craziness of the updates

and you don't got the the sort of

community around it right and so this is

why i say you got pole star kind of kind

of at the bottom like they have cars and

demand is low uh they're delivering but

demand is low right like there's no

culture here uh then you've got sorry to

pull soreness then you've got tesla uh

this is uh cultish culture i'm gonna

just be clear about that it's not like

cultured it's cultish uh then you got

rivien

where do you put rivien we don't know

we don't know where to put rivien now

they're gonna be a lot of people

probably watching these videos like oh

vivian's gonna be just like tesla

they're gonna be tesla colts too because

they're going to have they're actually

going to have more things they're going

to have three different their s1 had

this all over the s1 it was kind of

interesting they're like three different

ways you can like interact with rivians

like you can

rent a riviera and add a nature preserve

and take it out into nature or you could

go to rivian pop-up stores and and be

part of the rivian culture uh and the

the ran network like their charging

network and all this stuff they're tr

they're doing their best like don't get

me wrong when you read their s1 and

their marketing rivian knows what

they're up against they know they have

to create a culture like tesla has this

is why neo has those neo stores and the

whole neo experiences and neo day

they're trying to create that cult-like

culture that tesla has so is rivie and

rivien's trying to do exactly the same

thing that's why rivian says they're by

2023 going to have 3 000 chargers or 1

10th of what tesla has today because

tesla just broke the 30 000 charger

milestone this is why they say they're

going to have over-the-air updates fleet

management uh charging as a service and

a lot of the things that tesla has so

proprietary battery packs okay cool like

battery packs are different from

actually creating your own battery cells

but okay this is not a vivian vs tesla

versus the others video it's it's more

to

bring us to

this particular tweet here so gary black

a person whom i highly respect a person

whom i've also interviewed on the

channel you could watch that video very

very great uh it's called confronting

gary black

uh so check it out it's great but anyway

gary black writes listening to cnbc

produces brain damage now

i think a lot of people who watch this

channel agree with that a lot of people

who watch this channel don't love cnbc

and we're looking for an escape from

sort of the mainstream okay okay i get

that so this is a

i would say in a wall street bat style

retail style culture this is probably a

very populist thing to say but let's

actually get to the content

by 2023 rivian should deliver 150 000

evs a year excluding amazon van orders

at 60k average selling price less the 8k

ev credit up to 80k purchase under the

infrastructure package that's 9 billion

in revenue at 127

rivian ev 2023 revenue is 12.2 x

tesla ev revenue 2023 is 11.6x

and so really what's being created here

is gary black is creating this this

equivalence that hey well wait a minute

if if we can sell

riviens

for 60 dollars as an average selling

price

uh and uh we can do so

by producing a hundred fifty thousand

per year then all we have to do is look

at a hundred fifty thousand let's do

we'll do it together here 150 000.123

times 60 000.123 okay we're going to get

a large number here we're going to get 9

billion dollars right okay now we're

going to look at rivian stock

simple google that's all you have to do

to find out market cap gotta hit enter

kevin you gotta hit enter okay that's a

hundred and ten point eight billion

dollars

so we're going to take

110.83 divided by nine billion dollars

there you go about that 12.3

uh

multiple that gary black is talking

about 12.2 12.3 whatever simple little

rounding difference here right so that's

something known as a

price to sales ratio or market cap the

price you're paying for the company to

sales ratio and it's 12.2 times you

could do similar math with tesla and

gary black is suggesting hey look

they're similar so maybe maybe rivian

isn't that overvalued after all

okay fair but but but but wait a minute

wait a minute

investing is not that simple i know gary

knows this in terms of a popular tweet

for the rivian audience this is cool

although a lot of gary black's followers

are tesla fans uh and again i love gary

but i i have a counter okay my counter

is this on rivian at 150 000 vehicles by

2023 their s1 indicates an average

selling price of 67 900 including

14 to 15 000 in lifetime revenue

lifetime revenue is charging as a

service uh services in general fleet

management software all this other crap

potentially meaning closer to 52 000

average selling price right if you back

that off that's a lot that's lower right

that's 12 percent lower worth noting

that right away so that's a 12

difference right away

also tesla has a revenue mult has that

revenue multiple that might be similar

but has proved manufacturing and sales i

should have said that but i probably ran

out of characters and sales right

versus rivia

which means you have to include some

form of risk adjustment for rivien

because that is not in this metric if

you just look at a price to sales metric

and you compare rivian to tesla and

people didn't know what these companies

are you'd be like oh they're kind of

equally valued but wait a minute with

tesla you get proven manufacturing and

proven sales

you have neither of those with rivian

and don't tell me the the the sample

cars they've delivered so far or

produced so far or proof of

manufacturing they're not that's not

proof of manufacturing at scale like we

got to somehow ramp from

uh hundreds of cars a month or at this

point tens of cars a month uh to

thousands of cars a month to like 10 000

cars a month uh or or 12 000 cars a

month to actually get to this about 150

000 figure roughly maybe 12 500. but

anyway that that creates a risk

adjustment for orivian who got to know

that gotta be aware of this when when

you're looking at these other companies

so uh somebody then replied to that and

i i wanted to go through that and then

we'll circle back to elon here because

there's another there's a little bit of

junk that elon's pulling off as well

but uh anyway uh okay so we're gonna go

to tweets and replies here and

uh yeah so so i somebody was challenging

me on this and that's fine like i

appreciate that oh they deleted their

tweet oh that's that's quite interesting

but anyway uh i basically made this

comparison that hey like you you they

they were essentially saying hey but

like they're close i mean reviewing has

all this potential all this potential

and i'm basically making the argument

yeah that's fine that's fine but you

can't create a false dichotomy between

rivian and tesla when tesla is proven

and rivien is not that means when you do

your valuation bummer that this tweet

was deleted i guess my response was my

response responses worked uh not that i

encourage people to delete but

when you

when you do not know

yet

while you expect rivien's manufacturing

is going to be good and you expect that

their sales are going to be good if

somebody else comes out like if canoe

comes out with a better delivery vehicle

than rivien

amazon if they wanted to could sell

their shares uh out of rivien and then

they could buy the cars from canoe they

do not have to buy the delivery vehicles

from rivien okay they just they have an

option they have the first right of

refusal okay that's that's very very

very very different

uh so you have to include uh some form

of discount for the risk of the unknown

at rivian and that's all i'm suggesting

so if you're you are an investor please

consider this stuff these these are the

things that we talk about in the stocks

and psychology money group uh it's

important to think very critically uh

when you are an investor critical

thinking not emotion very very very very

very important now uh speaking of

emotion versus critical thinking i have

to uh

say i'm a little bit disappointed in

elon musk elon musk should have last

monday just literally dumped all of a

shares

either via a block sale or over the the

few days just liquidated it would have

hurt tesla substantially in the short

term uh you know tesla could have gone

down to 950 900 whatever but it but it

would be over like rip the freaking

bandage off

now with elon only having sold 67 of his

shares i'm sorry 37 of his shares having

to sell another 63 of what he promised

and now teasing with this bernie joke to

potentially sell even more although

that's not entirely clear uh

we're just elongating the amount of

uncertainty that tesla investors are

feeling there's only so much by the dip

power uh and so i am concerned that the

buy the dipping

uh could come to a place where there's

just no more money for buy the dipping

and uh tesla stock stays down lower for

longer thanks to this elongated selling

by elon he could have done a block sale

paid like a three or four percent

commission he would have made more money

at this point than how he's selling

right now and so i do have a little bit

of a qualm with how elon is kind of like

do-it-yourself selling his shares here

uh because i know he doesn't like paying

brokers just like he sells his real

estate himself uh but uh i think in this

case not only is it losing him money but

it's also hurting tesla stock and tesla

investors so

i don't appreciate that so elon if

you're if you're watching this can we

just get the rest done via block sale

and please be done with it okay

in the meantime i will buy the dip

okay we'll make that deal how's that

sound okay deal thanks everyone for

watching this hopefully you found this

helpful and we'll see you in the next

one thanks again goodbye

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