The Coming Black Monday *EPIC CRASH* | Bottom Line Report [E.13]

well just like Vladimir Putin just

announced that they will accomplish

their goals in Ukraine and to be clear

their goal is to demossify Ukraine

Jerome Powell has a goal for the markets

and that is to maintain maximum

employment and have stable prices and

not have a recession which would

probably lead to not maximum employment

in other words lots of layoffs okay we

get a real recession the layoffs we saw

last year will prove to have been a joke

that'll be like the little okay we

picked up the spare coffee mugs around

the office and cleaned a little bit an

actual like deep cleaning

you don't want to go there it's not

great for the economy but it usually

happens late it's a lagging indicator

it's not great Ford looking data despite

this though and of course markets

are going to be very tentative today

given that tomorrow jobs data comes out

job data coming out tomorrow is expected

to show 170 000 job gains and if the ADP

report is anything to give us an

indicator as how as to how the jobs

report tomorrow is going to go it is

that we have absolutely no idea the ADP

report like

in in this last cycle has been

completely off from where the actual

jobs report has done and so that does

create a risk that tomorrow we actually

end up getting a hot government jobs

report something over 170. what happens

in that case

stocks down yields up it's simple

everyone's played the game before but

what happens if that number actually

starts aligning with ADP and we get a

weak jobs report tomorrow it could be a

sign that maybe just maybe the fed's

finally done and could that be what sets

yields off to finally start falling well

we've got a little bit of data on the

history of what happens with bonds and

stocks find this quite fascinating look

at this

historically Bond sell-offs end up with

big rallies Let's uh explain this in

English here okay so uh if you go all

the way back to

1962 that's about 61 years there have

only been 15 times

that the bond market has actually sold

off for five months in a row

think about that for a moment going back

61 years

you've only seen as bad of a bond market

to sell off as we just had 15 times

and usually in the 30 days thereafter

you end up with bond yields coming down

and bond prices coming up again so you

get like a you know Bond rally uh that's

on average about 30 basis points here

however you could make status six months

later in other words like yeah we don't

really know what this signals going

forward for the next six months what we

do know though is that stock performance

has a pretty clear outline now this

might look overwhelming but all you have

to do is look at this is a measure of

bond sell-offs during these times and so

we look at how severe the bond sell-offs

add three to six months out stock

market's a little mixed during these

periods of bond sell-offs but if you

really want to know what happens a year

out all you have to do is look at the

average at the bottom so look at this

average at the bottom right here and you

get a 10.1 percent typical average

return for the stock market when you

average together all of these previous

Cycles where bonds have sold off so in

other words if you're that long-term

stock investor there is historical data

to suggest after these sort of crazy

Bond Cycles you do end up getting some

relief in the stock market as well at

the same time we're also seeing

Commodities relief and you look at uh

oil right now oil uh down right off of

its 95 Peak another 1.36 today we're

down now at 84.64 on Brent 83 on WTI

pretty remarkable drop it's almost as

remarkable as the drop that rivian's

having although I I will say covered

rivian's finances yesterday went through

some of their details their cash burn is

less than it used to be they're still

spending about 136 dollars per 100 of

Revenue they get in gross profit which

is gross loss so they're still losing

money and then you take off Opex still

burning money so it's no surprise that

they want to raise 1.5 billion dollars I

mean this is a duh you have to that's

that's why you want to be public right

it's so you can you can raise money from

your shareholders and you have liquidity

for your employees or for uh for

executives at a company to be able to

sell shares and and share in the growth

of the company with others but when you

have a company like rivien you're really

asking shareholders to share in the

startup costs of the company and that's

what's happening kind of much like Vin

fast except I I kind of think that VIN

fast is at like a scary like scammy kind

of level and what I've been bagging on

this company since it was memeing and

and talking and complaining about how

this company is a rip-off but let me

just tell you they just released

earnings and they're even worse than I

thought this company literally has 131

million dollars of cash they burn a

billion dollars of cash in a quarter

which means they really only have about

two weeks of cash left and I know people

like oh but they've got 897 million

dollars of inventories bro their free

cash flow negative they're burning more

cash than they are making

this company has two weeks of cash left

this is absolute trash uh you know and

that is of course they've got three

choices their related parties could sort

of delay some of the due dates on their

current liabilities maybe are there

other current liabilities could give

them some flexibility maybe they could

raise money like debt or Equity like uh

rivian is doing but you know with only

like two percent of the stock

outstanding uh and a lot of really weird

related party interests this company is

very very questionable so I've got my

concerns about vinfest substantially

more than rivian I would go all in on

rivian way before I would ever put a

dollar in Vin fast and let's just say I

own no rivian stock so look it's really

obvious that we're going through

uncertain times but the good news is in

this uncertainty you can invest in house

hack we've probably got about two weeks

left of the fundraise and then we're

likely closing the doors TBD on exactly

the date we'll announce that but go to

houset.com to learn more because we're

raising at a one-to-one valuation which

is exceptionally rare for star startups

that means you're basically investing at

cash value minus obviously some of the

fees that it costs us to actually

fundraise but this is a great

opportunity in my opinion you have to

evaluate those risks yourself check out

the offering circular at househack.com

learn about the company it's a great

opportunity in my opinion you should

evaluate that for yourself and also go

to meet kevin.com to check out those new

verse Pro crash courses we just added

some more 89 bucks we expect those

prices to double when the courses are

actually live so get in on the pre-sale

while we're making the content so what

do we have to talk about now it is of

course Black Monday how nobody wants to

remember 1987 but then there's 1916 and

blah blah blah blah blah basically

here's an article in Bloomberg that's

been circulating a lot a lot of people

have been asking for my opinion on this

and really what the article does is say

says okay look let's put in a blue line

what 10-year treasury yields did going

all the way to 1987. and what you can

see is you had this run up to 1987 and

all of a sudden you had a Black Monday

market crash and those treasure yields

Came Crashing Down but so did the stock

market and our path looks eerily similar

to what happened back then in fact it's

not just our path on the actual yield

curve or or 10-year treasury yield chart

it's also right here the black line is

the NASDAQ today okay the blue line is

the Dow Jones Industrial Average back

then and you could see that crash was

pretty dang painful and it does make you

wonder

uh uh oh is it possible that we could be

in for some real painly dude law now I

do think it's worth noting that this

chart is possibly a little deceiving

because it ignores all of the pain that

happened last year and you know me I'm a

big fan of perspective okay yesterday I

was building Legos with Jack and you

know the manual kind of had like the

pieces at an angle like this and it made

it look like the piece behind it was

totally flush but it wasn't it was

sticking out and he's like oh Dad I

couldn't really tell because of the the

angle on the paper uh and I'm like well

if you hold the Lego kind of like this

doesn't it look the same right and this

is perspective and he's like isn't that

an optical illusion I go no it's

perspective and you could learn

perspective in the new verse Pro crash

courses and he's like okay Dad I know I

know the price is going to be double

when they actually come out okay so

what's the perspective the perspective

right here here is that this Bloomberg

article this opinion piece right here

is actually only showing you this year

okay and they talk about how spooky this

year is but wait a minute what happened

in the year prior to this chart well

let's find out in the year prior to this

chart so where is this this is 1987.

here's January of 1987. what they're

showing you on that Bloomberg chart is

literally from where the line is right

now

through this crash through basically you

know uh the the right about here which

is about the end of the year they're

showing you all of 1987. but what's

worth noting is the stock market

literally ran straight up for three

years leading up to that crash I mean

look at that July of 1984.

to September August 1987 three years of

straight up stock market rally

and now you're trying to suggest that

our NASDAQ today is going to crash

because just this part relates wait a

second wait a second what did our NASDAQ

do last year well let's find out we go

to QQQ go to the week chart

oh crap our NASDAQ had a big crash last

year and how convenient you totally left

the whole crash of 2022 out of your

chart because you decided you know what

it's going to be a lot easier for me to

make a comparison to the Black Monday

crash the big Doom and Gloom crash if I

just happened to cut out the fact that

the stock market basically went straight

up for three years prior to the Black

Monday crash whereas we literally just

came out of a massive correction in 2022

the low of 2022 literally reset our

stock values back to year years

so these comparisons to Black Monday of

1987 are just clickbait nonsense but to

give the article credit they go a little

bit deeper and you know me I like to go

deep okay especially if I could find

really strong big baby pricing power at

companies it's got to be big we gotta go

deep okay we want pricing power that's

what we're looking for at companies it's

hard in an environment when rates are

this huge it's very hard okay there's a

lot of volatility there's a lot of fear

there's a lot of Doubt but look at this

the article on Black Monday literally

goes on to talk about well there was a

time that the 10-year treasury yield did

Skyrocket and the stock market didn't

crash and that was during the taper

tantrum of 2013. oh how interesting we

basically had another seven to eight to

nine years of basically more like eight

years straight stock market gains from

2013 on so are we really going to get

yields Drive our decision in to invest

or not in the stock market when it's

unclear that a black Monday is ahead of

us a b the taper tantrum of 2013 gives

us the like well it could be either or

but even better when we actually look at

stock performance during periods of

massively skyrocketing uh bond yields

yes there's volatility but when you go

12 months out what do you get well 12

months out you get an average 10 percent

return over history in the stock market

12 months out so in other words I'm a

big fan of suggesting

look you find your opportunities as

usual there's always going to be fud

who's going to be speaker of the house

this is going to be Donnelly T I don't

think so look if Donald T becomes the

speaker of the house he will lose the

election

that does not mean being bullish or

bearish on Donald Trump I'm just saying

like you don't go from speaker to

president it is the most thankless job

that exists like you are stuck between

literally a rock and a hard place

there's no way it would be stupid

Trump doesn't need that anyway he just

needs to keep showing up at Court going

this is a weapons

all the advertising he's done for him

like him or not ah now we gotta talk

about the Daily Wealth newsletter this

is a really good one today we got to

talk about it right after I mentioned

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learn more so Daily Wealth today we're

going to talk about Chaos Theory

um hmm

right so chaos theory is a first of all

a video game it's Splinter Cell chaos

theory is a phenomenal game I love that

game but there's also another form of

chaos theory and I learned this

uh in law

chaos theory in law is when an attorney

who's fighting another attorney

every day Peppers the opposing council

with filings and requests and

distractions and comments and complaints

you literally want the other person to

look at her phone go oh how am I going

to sort all this oh my God

you could actually apply Chaos Theory to

your life because the person who applies

chaos theory is generally the person

who's in control

it's actually to some degree some of the

stuff that Donald Trump does when

everything's in chaos the person causing

the chaos is the one in control they

hold all the power

so that's the legal example how do you

apply this to your life you apply this

to your life by creating Chaos Theory at

every different part of your life

whether it's the organization in your

desk whether it's the organization in

your bedroom whether it's the

organization in uh the way you do your

emails or your phone you just delete

everything and restart every single time

you cause chaos you take everything you

throw it into the pile and you rebuild

it whether it's a fresh wipe on your

phone on your computer your desk or your

closet whatever it is every time you

rebuild the next even though that takes

act for effort the next time you go to

use the items that you just chaos

theoried or the processes that you just

chaos theory it will almost always hands

down virtually guaranteed be better more

efficient simpler to use more organized

you'll save time so the investment you

make by chaos theory in different parts

of your life actually makes you a much

more efficient person don't going

forward now if you want more tips like

that make sure to sign up for the Daily

Wealth email it's totally free it's

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links down below appreciate you watching

this and we'll see in the next one

goodbye these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take