Toronto's condo market under intense pressure: Will the slow downward trend continue?

The city's condo market has been under

intense pressure in the last year and a

bit. And as we've seen, average prices

and on condos are down by 27% from

February's peak prices. Uh that's last

February, pushing the price of studio

condos below the $300,000 mark with

plenty of one-bedrooms in or near the

downtown core starting to hit that

sub400 mark. So for a closer look at

what's taking shape in the industry and

a look at some of those recently sold

condos, we're joined this morning by

Britney Kostov, Zucas's industry

relations officer. Britney, good to talk

to you about this today. Uh this is

pretty remarkable. You know, you think

of the Toronto condo market for years.

It was like hard to break in. It was

like 650,000 even though that was kind

of like a starting thing. Now these

prices are coming down. Is this like

across the city or just in a pocket of

one or two neighborhoods?

>> No, this is absolutely across the board,

Nick. So, thanks so much for having me.

As we know, the GTA average home price

has fallen below 1 million for the first

time since 2021 to 973,000.

Condos are at 604,000. So this condo

slowdown is actually not even just

across the GTA. It is national. So

Vancouver apartments are down 34%,

Calgary, Edmonton are also down

respectively 26 to 38% in January 2026.

We know the Bank of Canada interest rate

is being held steady at 2.25%.

And Treb is actually expecting 60 to

70,000 sales in 2026. Now nearly half of

those are being projected to be

potential firsttime home buyers. So,

this is really solidifying that need for

those entry-level condo apartments. So,

we really believe that now is that time

to look for those unicorn deals, uh,

those condos that you can focus on to

negotiate a better price in terms.

>> Britney, though, here's the question, I

think, and I realize you don't have a

crystal ball in front of you, but some

people are kind of curious. Well, is

this the bottom or could the prices come

down even further? Could I stretch my

buck even further? Do you have a sense

of could this be the bottom or or could

there be more to go?

>> Um, I think honestly, Nick, I think it

could. There could be more to go. I

don't know that this is necessarily the

bottom. To your point, peak pricing in

2022, we saw 1.2 million on average.

Today, we're looking at 924. So with

condos back to 2019 prices, we also know

that this buyer with the longerterm

perspective, if they have this in mind

that there is going to be potentially

another 5 years that where they'll be

able to hold this property, I think that

with transactions picking up this year,

I think that there's still room to see

this slow downward trend on pricing

continue because we haven't seen it we

haven't seen it go sideways for any

amount of time yet. So I do believe that

there still is potentially more to go. I

don't know that we've hit the bottom.

What's also interesting, Britney, I

think about this is, you know, you know,

for years and years it was like Toronto

was, you know, condo and crane city,

right? There were cranes all over the

place, condos going up left and right.

That's definitely slowing down. So, the

the supply of condos coming out of the

market is slowing down. But, but as you

mentioned, Toronto is a destination

people are going to want to live in

here. So, you know, this really seems

like such an opportunity now because

there's not a whole lot being built or

going to be finished in the next, you

know, four or five years. Incredible

opportunity, Nick. In Yorkville, in

downtown, in the financial district, in

the junction, Dawnlands and Corktown, we

are seeing sales of condo apartments

under 400,000. And to your point, these

are highly [clears throat] desirable

locations with desirable features as

well. We have a full concierge. We have

utilities, direct access to the path and

subway at your doorstep, pools, um,

indoor and outdoor. All of these things

are coming with these condo apartments

for below the $400,000 price point,

which is specifically powerful when we

look at rental prices in comparison. In

North York, we're seeing rental averages

at for the two-bedroom around the $2,700

a month.

>> H

>> and at the $400 condo price point,

you're actually able to get in at $2,000

a month in mortgage payments.

>> Wow, what an opportunity. Okay, if

you've got the cash, this could be the

time. Britney Cost from Zucasa, really

appreciate this conversation this

morning. Next with this.