Blackrock **JUST** Ignored a Critical Warning | HUGE FLIP

you won't believe what Black Rock just

said about the stock market it is a

warning about the stock market despite

their bullish positioning which is

really interesting because it's

basically the opposite position that

I've taken with a similar conclusion now

if you're not familiar with my position

or their position let's watch the video

and find out what's going on first we're

going to look at a chart that gives us a

really good indicator of usually what

happens when we're at this sort of point

in the stock market do want to give a

quick shout out first of all congrats if

you also made some tendies this morning

on that Tesla trade we made in the

stocks and site group and if you're not

yet part of the group we have the next

price increase and expiring coupon code

coming up at the end of the month so

it'll be very simple end of the month

this month and if you've got questions

email us at staff mein.com let's get

into it this folks is a chart of the

snps price to earnings ratio now we're

going to look at this before we look at

what Black Rock says because refer to it

now something that's really important to

remember about the PE Ratio is it does

really weird things during recessions

see in normal times the PE Ratio is

useful because let's say we have $20 of

earnings and we have

$200 for a price of something so

something for $200 makes $20 that's

obviously a 10p okay that's really

simple to e and easy to understand but

what most people Miss is that during

recessions this number goes up when the

economy is faltering because not

necessarily the change in price but a

substantially faster collapse in

earnings and so when earnings collapse

this PE ratio can actually Skyrocket and

make markets look very expensive watch

this let's say earnings go just to be

extreme from $20 all the way down to $1

and the stock market corrects by 30 30%

so we go down to 140 well instead of

having a 10 PE we would have

A40 PE ratio so the point is if earnings

are collapsing faster than price this

ratio can Skyrocket and so there's a

really unique conclusion that comes from

this chart first let's go to the right

over here and let's evaluate where we

sit today so I'm going to draw a line

all the way across here this little blue

line and this will show you that pretty

pretty much historically we are at one

of the highest levels we've ever been on

the S&P 500's price to earnings ratio as

you can see we are only beat by the

crash of the do bubble which is the

peaking that we have over here and then

of course we have the crash of 2008

which is the peaking we have over here

and then we have the crash of covid

which is the peaking we have here now

remember those are not the signal we

have to separate as they say the signal

from the noise the top of these charts

is not the signal what's actually the

signal is what comes before those spikes

because you've got to look at how rich

are prices getting before earnings

collapse because once earnings collapse

it's already too late you're in a

recession and so this is what's very

interesting clearly earnings are

actually growing right now earnings that

most companies are doing quite well and

the early reports that we got this

morning were actually pretty good

Spotify beats GM beats F serve which

processes a lot of credit cards like

when you go to Macy's and stuff UPS

Pepsi all of them beat Sherwin Williams

and Jet Blue gave a little bit light

guidance but honestly these were really

good earnings so we're not seeing our

chart go up because earnings are

collapsing we're actually just seeing

this chart go up because valuations are

expanding in other words the market is

getting rich so what you really ought to

do is you should look at times this has

peaked before

without necessarily a massive crash to

get that subsequent like recessionary

disaster and instead you want to look at

what happened in places like this oh

over here you had that's not good the

stock market crash of Black Monday over

here in the early 90s clearly didn't

have a recession but you had a valuation

reset valuations went from basically

where we are now way back down to a

normal historically normal level of

around 15 times earnings so 15 times

earnings is right here pretty strong

support level we saw that after CO as

well so uh this elevated level where we

sit now absent an actual recession is

not very good but Black Rock takes a

different approach than I do on this and

I think it's really interesting because

well it's Black Rock they manage a whole

lot of money now I'll be clear my

strategy in what I think is happening in

this environment is I think this

Market's gotten Toppy and this is just a

very simple recap of the market being

toppy it's essentially you've got

Bitcoin topping out the S&P 500 and q's

topping out and that creates resistance

that we really have to blow through and

I don't think we're going to and so in

the last few weeks you know maybe the

last three four weeks we've kind of

started seeing a little bit of an edge

down my concern is that worsens and so I

went to cash pre preemptively Black Rock

says you know what we're going to wait

and then we'll flip-flop and I'm going

to talk about that flip-flop here but

some of you might be wondering what was

this Tesla trade I was talking about

what we did this morning is we actually

set a day Traders line at 14578 on Tesla

and what we noticed was we were

constantly getting bounces here 148 uh

145 145 145 and so that led us to go for

a short and play this down to the vwap

which worked perfectly in fact you could

have literally done the trend the same

trade again when we uh got rejected went

for a double top boom right back to vwap

and look at this then we even broke out

above the line and what happened boom

snap back to reality right there between

vwap and that day trade line again those

are the sort of signals I send in the

stocks and sight group and while I can't

guarantee you're going to make money on

them because it comes down to how you

trade my goal is just to send hey here's

what I'm seeing what you do with it is

up to you and that's my goal that's my

job all right folks let's now get into

black rock and make sure to join before

the price goes up again and email us at

staff atme kevin.com if you need a

bundle okay right here higher bar for us

earnings okay so let's let's read some

of this right here US Stocks have slid

from their highs have as inflation has

proved sticky and geopolitical tensions

rise Wei whether corporate earnings can

keep buoying C think of a buoy in the

ocean it's full of air and if the waves

are too strong or you know you attach a

buoy to a boat that's filling with water

and it's sinking it's going to pull that

buoy underwater with it even in the case

of a wave just temporarily because well

hopefully there's nothing anchoring it

down we don't know if we're going to

have an anchor or just a giant wave but

the point is when somebody says things

are buoying it's usually not very

optimistic so the S&P slid on 3% uh on

Jitters from Key Tech earnings and

Rising bond yields as well as

geopolitical flare ups yep we already

know that first when we got into 2024 we

thought of two stories cooling inflation

and solid corporate earnings

unfortunately though resurgent inflation

might end up disrupting sentiment and

unfortunately that's exactly what's

happened is we've gotten resurgent

inflation just this morning Jamie

Diamond suggested we might end up seeing

stagflation and you should prepare for a

case of stagflation where the economy

growth falters we go to 0% growth and on

top of that we end up having higher than

normal inflation mean which means the

Federal Reserve can't bail us out by

lowering interest rates instead they end

up saying sorry we stay high forever

it's not actually going to be forever

but until the economy actually really

falters and crashes so they say we stay

overweight US Stocks yet are ready to

Pivot now see that's really interesting

and that's where I say it's a different

strategy from m

they are still long stocks but they're

ready to GTFO and this is why they say

the second leg may now be playing out

reinforcing our expectations for

persistently higher inflation that

raises the stakes for q1 corporate

earnings to buoy sentiment just as

higher bond yields pressure equity

valuations and then here you go the

fedus calling has gone from blessing the

market hopes of inflation to 2% without

a growth hit to implying policy may have

to stay tight and the S&P 500's price to

earnings ratio a popular valuation

metric shows stocks feeling the heat

from higher rates in other words we're

starting as we've moved up we've started

to see that PE ratio come down uh now

you'll notice that their PE ratio is sat

sitting at a slightly different level uh

than the PE Ratio that we used which uh

is right here I want to show you where

this data is so you could see and

compare for yourself why these charts

might look different this is the Y chart

S&P 500 PE ratio and when we pull that

up right here you could simply jump into

it over here uh you could see the

fiveyear on y chart so the fiveyear on y

chart puts us at that

2479 so which is the same I have on my

chart although it's a slightly different

chart that I was using I think I may

have been using macro Trends yeah that

looks right see macro Trends sitting

over here at 2740 though I think it's

come down to about 24 as we saw that

little Edge down in the last few days so

I think black rock it just has a little

bit of a scale issue here but I just

wanted to clarify that because I did

think it was a little weird that you

know macro Trends and uh the uh y charts

both have us at over a 24 and there's

you know is is suggesting S&P valuations

or somewhere in that neighborhood of

just under 21 so it's worth noting that

their chart might be a little oopsy

doopsie so again pay attention to that

uh but the point is the same no matter

we're sitting right under 21 or right

under 25 it is historically well above

the long run average of 15 to 16 and so

those Corrections can happen no matter

from where again I don't know why they

have this uh I think it's oh I know the

difference ah look at this forward

looking esates okay we just discovered

that live together this chart show shows

the forward PE ratio so the charts I

showed you are the trailing 12 months

and the black rock is the forward so

they're already trying to price in how

much earnings might grow and say even

with the future earnings growth we are

already high so worth noting glad we saw

that together uh yeah good for us to

learn together okay good so what do we

have over here we question whether the

slide in stocks is a Flip or a bigger

shift towards pricing in inflation I

think it's that I think people have

gotten a little complacent they're like

oh we don't mind if rates are at 5% okay

buddy you'll start minding when you lose

your job you know somebody else is like

Kevin a recession can't happen in an

election year they would never allow

that to happen I'm like bro bro where

were you in 2008 where were you in

2000 where were you during

Co so crisis can happen okay they can

happen all right let's go in over here

so we have broadened out our stock view

to include segments all right so that's

actually a red flag when people say hey

I'm going to diversify more into more

stocks rather than concentrate it means

they're a little nervous the market

might be getting toppy so as a market

goes up you're supposed to

diversify and as a market goes down you

can concentrate on specific positions

okay got it so earnings face a crucial

test this week with some Mega cap tech

companies reporting yeah 40% of the S&P

500 by market cap that's a little more

than some but anyway they do say that

they do prefer artificial intelligence

and staying exposed to AI I think that's

why they're still in especially down the

road AI applications like those that

might be able to be found in healthcare

financials and Cal services so they're a

big fan of that however this argument

that they are ready to Pivot is

something they reiterate multiple times

us benchmarks we are ready to Pivot once

the market narrative shifts now that I

thought was kind of like classic suit

rather than looking at underlying data

and then deciding to Pivot which is what

I do they're saying hey we'll pivot once

everybody

pivots like bro you're Black Rock unless

of course they're referring to the FED

sentiment but then again those might be

one and the same with the market since

the market seems to copy the FED but

anyway that's black Rock's warning and

when you combine that with what Jamie

Diamond said this morning which I'll go

through again in just a moment

uh look if if you're in uh let's watch

earnings let's pray they're good I know

people that are like C how could you say

you pray the earnings are good when

you're cash because if the earnings are

poopy doopy like truly poopy

doopy it's going to go into recession

man it's going to set off a recessionary

spiral and that's bad uh so that's what

I want to avoid uh we don't want a

recession oh sure I'll pick up a stock

correction uh but uh you know recession

is is just bad for everyone okay so uh

Jamie Diamond uh just spoke this morning

and he says that uh here it is uh when

it comes to the soft Landing put me on

the cautious side of that he's

commenting at the New York economic Club

even if we go into recession the US is

in consumer is in good shape yeah I

don't know about that they should have

asked him why his charge offs are up 70%

in the consumer division year-over-year

obviously they didn't do that uh and

then of course there's the risk of stag

FL sh okay all right whatever let's see

what happens I'll be live for Tesla

earning so I hope you join me join me in

that stocks and site group linked down

below at meetkevin.com I'll also be in

sack and San Jose later today and then

tomorrow I think we've got Seattle

Spokane I don't know there's a whole

list just go to house act.com 2024 if

you want to meet me in person because

you're curious about investing in house

Haack read the solicitation this video

is not a solicitation thank you so much

for watching we'll see you in the next

one goodbye and good luck advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

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