Why Bitcoin is Falling | My Game Plan.

i just lost lots of money in bitcoin

let's talk about bitcoin so bitcoin is

selling off a little bit despite the

fact that stimulus checks are just now

hitting people's bank accounts

and the theory has generally been wait a

minute

if people get stimulus checks there's a

good chance they're not actually going

to need the money and that they're just

going to throw it into cryptocurrencies

in fact

when i interviewed the ceo of voyager

what did they say hey when twelve

hundred dollar checks went out

wow golly we got a whole lot of 1200

deposits

and folks there are many reasons why we

invest in bitcoin first of all it's just

been going straight up and to the right

so why not invest in something that's

going to the moon

after all it becomes safer to invest in

something as it gets more expensive

right

wrong obviously if we've been watching

this channel or you follow me in the

programs that i've listed down below

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you know that as prices go up they

actually the asset the underlying asset

becomes more risky but anyway society

doesn't like to think that and so

when things go up and to the right

people tend to invest more money into it

so few reasons why why do we invest in

bitcoin well first

it's been going up into the right uh

second it's by some people deemed to be

a digital gold

some people deem it to be a hedge

against inflation some people seem

to consider it a hedge against

government and just fiat currency in

general

others like it because they deem it to

be fast and

reliable very secure and uh ultimately

something that is uh very transparent if

you have everybody's

wallet addresses so we know exactly

what's going on

and what money or where money is being

spent so

bitcoin has some very very exciting

properties and there are even

some real bitcoin bulls which i don't go

this far

even though i'm bullish on bitcoin i

don't go this far there are some bitcoin

bulls who think that bitcoin might one

day replace the us dollar now

i don't think drum powell with the money

printer is ever gonna let go of the

dollar

maybe it won't be a paper dollar anymore

maybe it'll be like a digital coin like

a fed coin

and they'll use blockchain but i don't

think it's gonna be bitcoin not just my

opinion

but right now we've gotta focus on what

the he double hockey sticks is happening

in the market for bitcoin why is bitcoin

down seven percent today

and it's kind of been selling off from

its highs this weekend when people

started getting their stimulus check

deposits

when it hit intraday highs of almost 63

000 crossing 62

600 dollars what the heck is going on

and what do we expect going forward well

first it's helpful to look at the weeble

trunk

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that's kind of a lottery determining how

much you get but let's go back for a

moment

to december when bitcoin was trading for

around 17 000

per coin there's something interestingly

absent from this chart

we do not have a lot of bearish keys

bearish keys

are where you have a nice green stick

but it

actually went so low that it had a

substantial low within that candlestick

and it just happened to end higher

within that candlestick within

in this case that hour and notice we're

looking for

big green lines going down under where

all the other candlesticks are

and you don't really see those like

here's a tiny one but that's pretty

irrelevant with how small this is going

down

we got some pink ones you know here's

one potentially here's a bearish one

uh but we're not really seeing any of

these between 20 000

30 000 low 40s we're not

really seeing these bearish keys come up

but

at this point you might be wondering

like kevin what the heck is a bearish

key like i don't know i don't i don't

see a problem here

ah but they're actually right here and

that's what's interesting

you started getting a couple bearish

keys over here here see

long green arrow another long green

arrow leading up to some some

sell-offs and just so you could see what

that looks like

long green arrow shows you in this case

an hour period of time

where you had a substantial sell-off

pretty large i mean in this candle right

here we went from fifty five thousand

eight hundred to fifty one thousand one

hundred

uh and and then you ended up closing

though above the previous close and

that's why you end up with a green

candlestick

well some say that when you get these

like here

or here you end up leading up to a crash

which in that case we have seen now

what's interesting though

is compared to the history here of of

bitcoin

we're seeing these come up a lot more

frequently look at march

we can just count these one two three

four five six seven

uh eight nine these are bearish

indicators and these are

the kind of indicators that we have not

seen at

previous levels like when we were

seventeen thousand twenty thousand

thirty thousand

now this is leading some folks and i'm

gonna share my opinion on this i just

wanna share what some folks are thinking

this is leading some folks to say that

if we keep seeing these

indicators we could potentially end up

testing support again

and that means that bitcoin could

potentially fall back to support levels

well we have two pretty easy support

levels that we can identify one right

around 47

000 some people say forty thousand

dollars is a support level

but i don't see any support at forty

thousand i mean maybe the

prior resistance is what they're using

over here uh and that's entirely

possible but i haven't seen that tested

yet

and so i'm gonna prefer to go with this

support level here around that 32

200 level and so there are some folks

who believe that it's possible that

bitcoin

after the stimulus checks come and

people start

selling the news remember the saying in

stocks and and equities

buy the rumors sell the news people

start selling the news that

oh stimulus checks are here time to take

my attendees on bitcoin

it's possible we could retest into the

range of 32

000 to 47 000 somewhere within this

range

now obviously no guarantees that we

would even head back into this box

but here's my strategy and then i want

to tell you about a potential upcoming

catalyst

my strategy is if bitcoin falls

within this box and then at whatever

point we hit a support we hit

some kind of u-turn support i would be

interested in adding to my bitcoin

position

at that point i'm not interested in

adding to bitcoin right now where

bitcoin is

i'm willing to wait as much as i love

the interest i'm getting paid over at

block five because they're paying sweet

interest on bitcoin

and they're giving you up to two hundred

fifty dollars when you sign up for block

five by going to mckevin.combf

i'm willing to be patient on this one if

we continue to see buy the rumor sell

the news because of these stimulus

checks

and we go into these boxes here between

a level of 47

000 to 32 000 i'll probably start nibble

buying

i don't think i'm gonna like i wouldn't

buy this heavy

uh but i would nibble so a nibble for me

is gonna be

you know uh a few tenths of a percent of

my portfolio just

here's for example one-tenths of a

percent of my portfolio here's another

one-tenth here's another 110

and then just kind of keep buying in

until my portfolio was up to about six

to seven percent

bitcoin that's sort of how i like my

portfolio to be diversified right now

i'm only about four percent bitcoin

so i'd be willing to add somewhere

around three percentage points to my

portfolio which would be a nice increase

now no guarantees obviously that we're

going to go into this box that's just my

strategy

right now regarding bitcoin my strategy

is to hold my bitcoin so i've got about

15 bitcoin

i'm holding that uh because i i do think

there is another catalyst

for a run here and i'm going to explain

that in just a moment if we get within

this box i will nibble by

up to that percentage of my portfolio

certainly if we break the lower support

of

32 000 that's where i might consider

starting to buy it a little bit heavier

especially since i think we've got a

very nice upcoming catalyst

that could lead bitcoin higher but that

also comes with some new concerns

so the upcoming catalyst that we have is

going to be the cpi release the consumer

price index data

release which we just had last week next

month

so next month in april we will get the

consumer price index data

for march which is the month that

stimulus checks will probably have been

received

and spent and i personally believe

that even though a lot of bitcoin

hodlers

do not trust the government cpi data

there could be a buy the rumor

sell the news catalyst for the next cpi

release which could potentially push

bitcoin up dramatically

and that's because i believe that

markets will look at

the next cpi release and say there's no

way there's

no way we can print 1.9 trillion dollars

send out all these stimulus checks and

not see inflation

now i think it's going to be buy the

rumor sell the news because i think when

those that cpi data comes out

it's going to disappoint a lot of people

i don't think we're going to see massive

month over month inflation we will see

large year-over-year inflation but we're

at expecting that and we know that's

because we're measuring to a low point

so that's not that big of a deal but

month over month might actually

disappoint

and then there are two things that could

happen one bitcoin hodlers will

double down and say well the cpi data is

bs anyway

and stick to their guns and bitcoin

stays stable could still be a buy the

room or sell the news event we could

still see

bitcoin fall but overall it could

maintain some stability

if cpi ends up coming in higher then i

think that could be a

pretty strong reiterating force for

showing bitcoin or proving that bitcoin

is that

deflationary tool that we could use to

hedge against

inflation uh but keep this in mind

and this is a risk factor this is uh

this is this is where i'm going to

evolve my theory here okay

so here's a risk factor first of all i

just ran this poll on twitter at realme

kevin on twitter you should follow me

and join my polls

and take a look at this of the people

who invest in bitcoin so of this group

right here

about 43 percent the top line i'm

i'm removing this bottom here and then

dividing this by the sum of this right

about 43 of the people who do invest in

bitcoin who voted here

said that the reason they invest in

bitcoin is as an inflation hedge

that's nearly half of people who invest

in bitcoin based on this

poll on my twitter nearly half of the

people investing in bitcoin

are doing so with a primary reason of

bitcoin being an inflation

hedge this becomes a little bit of a

longer tail risk in my opinion

because what happens if actual inflation

however you measure it

and i know what's crazy to say but what

happens if inflation does not manifest

itself

and again i know it's crazy to say

because look biden's about to print

not only the 1.9 that we just passed but

another possible three trillion dollars

for infrastructure right

but what happens if bitcoin doesn't

end up being needed as an inflation

hedge because there's no inflation

then what other reasons do we have okay

no government but the no government is

really an argument of

we're worried about fiat because of all

the government money printing

so it's possibly and i'm not going to

say all because there's still a benefit

to not having government involvement

right

but i still think some of the people in

this no government

are considering fiat as being a problem

which is kind of similar to the

inflation hedge argument right

uh sure we've got easy borderless safe

and fast but that's the smallest reason

out of these three

but there are other reasons to invest in

bitcoin so i thought okay well let me go

to the comments section here on twitter

let's see here uh you forget i invest in

crypto because i believe

it will keep going up okay

here's another one i don't see the make

as much money as humanly possible option

okay johnny utah because number go

up okay

so like like i i get

investing in bitcoin as an inflation

hedge

but if it's true that nearly 50 percent

of people are investing in bitcoin as an

inflation hedge

you want to hedge the possibility that

inflation does not happen

and that reason for investing in bitcoin

evaporates

again i know it's crazy it's the

unpopular opinion

don't hate me for making that opinion i

own 15 bitcoin and i'm not

selling it but let me tell you when i

would sell

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up but anyway

no so so here's here's a thesis that i

have

the next time we see a big run-up and i

mean i'm talking

big run up like we go oh my gosh cpi

data is coming up

bitcoin's going to a hundred thousand

dollars i could see it happening

i could literally see people plowing

money and institutions plowing money

into

bitcoin because they think the cpa data

over the next three months is going to

be disastrous

and the cpi data over the next three

months year over year will be disastrous

but month over month is going to be the

real tell and again i know that cpi is

not one of the favorite measures of

inflation i get it

but it's going to be what the suits are

looking at as much as we want to fight

it

the suits have a lot of money in bitcoin

in fact right now if you want to invest

in bitcoin kind of like how a lot of the

suits are doing

you could buy the grayscale bitcoin

trust which is actually selling for a

negative seven percent

discount well a negative seven percent

premium or a seven percent discount

to net asset value that's the grayscale

bitcoin

trust is selling for less than all of

the bitcoin they hold which would be the

zero line right here

uh which is possibly a sign of lower

institutional demand like when we had

high institutional demand

the grayscale bitcoin trust was selling

for like a 20 to 40

premium it was nuts right now maybe

institutional demand is a little bit

lower as this cell the news is happening

but if we do get this sustained belief

that inflation is coming

then we will see a buy the rumor sell

the news cycle or we may

what do i know i'm not a prophet i'm

some dude on youtube wearing a just lost

lots of money shirt

or sweater here and we got doge on the

back okay

all right so so you got to

qualify where you're hearing these

opinions from

and and that includes me but i

i just want to warn and this is my

strategy that

if bitcoin runs to 100

i might be tempted because remember what

happens price goes up risk goes up

if bitcoin runs to 100 i might be

tempted to

take some money off the table now

remember it's not paper handing to sell

into green

it's smart to take some money into green

unless you

you have something you just want to hold

forever and that's fine too you can

totally hold something forever

but uh with bitcoin if we get a run up

to 100 before this next cpi data

i'm out uh not completely out but i'll

probably take

all my gains off the table or just leave

you know uh

or take my original investment out and

just leave the gains whatever

it's the same thing and i might take

that money

and throw it into something that'll do

well in a potentially

lower inflation time like tech

because if bitcoin runs to 100 because

everybody's fearful that big inflation

is coming

and if it doesn't come we might see that

quick reversal again now you just might

want to wait to see what happens but

these are just some of my thoughts

this is my strategy over the next 30

days for bitcoin

so again to just kind of hit that point

home

if we fall below the bars here i'm

adding

i am bullish between the bars on bitcoin

bullish between those bars here

if we don't get those bars i'm happy

with my 15 bitcoin

a hotel we get to 100 in the next 30

days

it's time to take some attendees okay

it's gonna be time to take ten days

because with 50 of people expecting

inflation

if it doesn't manifest

that that could be a catalyst for a

problem uh and who knows

you know again i'm long run bullish on

bitcoin but short term that's on my

radar

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