this is making me panic.

hey everyone we kevin here okay we gotta

talk about a disastrous shift that's

happening in the market and it's

something that we really need to be

aware of and look i get this is like oh

kevin what is this like you coming out

with the fud on the day the dow's flat

and the nasdaq's up 1.4 1.5 percent oh

you're just gonna give us the bad news

again look no this is this is important

because in my opinion i always like to

be very clear about my intentions and my

expectations for the market because i

make predictions and often i'm right

then then sometimes i'm just gloriously

wrong but your goal is not to blindly

copy me or take financial advice from me

because i don't give that your goal is

to maybe take it what i'm saying and

then look and go hmm this is something i

need to pay attention to because i

believe that's why you come to this

channel and subscribe to this channel am

i perfect no but again hey i try my best

so uh here's here's some of the things

that i'm seeing right now

first we we got to talk about a little

quick note about real estate uh i think

we're starting to see an early shift in

real estate it's too soon for the data

to tell

but if you are a real estate agent and

you can send me

data that is ideally what i'm looking

for is how many houses were on the

market in february how many houses sold

in february and what were the median

home prices for them those three things

for feb 1 to feb 28 and then do the same

thing march 1 to march 28th that's the

kind of data i want to be able to

compare these two months okay if you

could send that to me kevin me kevin.com

it's a big deal why is this a big deal

potentially though for stocks well

you've got to keep this in mind what

happens when real estate values go

down real estate values go down people's

feeling of wealth which has been

bloated over the past 10 years because

real estate prices can't go down i mean

that'd be crazy right real estate prices

what what real estate prices can go down

and get out of town you crazy

they can and they will

and here's the thing

real estate prices go down it's not just

real estate what do real estate prices

affect home depot lowe's

solar

right anything related to the home gets

hurt lending gets hurt but what else

gets hurt people spend less money on

stuff like shopify and etsy because they

have less discretionary money so that

hurts etsy pinterest shopify and when

shopify and etsy get hurt

sometimes the buy now pay later and the

credit card processing companies also

get hurt now there's an argument that

maybe buy now pay later could do better

because hey if we go into a recession

then people might need access to looser

credit right or they just don't spend

money on buy now pay

later related things like online

transactions and then the test is no

good anyway because right now it seems

like people are spending money on fun

they're spending money going to disney

parks and islands of adventure in

florida universal studios whatever

hollywood florida doesn't matter people

are spending money on cruises actually

look at the search transfer cruises

they're incredible right now people are

spending money at restaurants and bars

and concerts because we still have the

feeling that oh the party's still going

but the party's starting to thin out a

little bit the stock market's already

been hit pretty hard i'm not expecting

that we're going to go back to those feb

i'm sorry the march 14th lows but

this is not a time to be on margin this

is not a time to be super super high

risk and i understand look if you want

to make you know small bets within your

portfolio on yolos and stuff like that

fine but consider some of this other

stuff that's going on

first of all we've got a selective

movement in small caps

i'm sorry in in the large caps that is

you've got companies like apple

microsoft uh tesla doing well but you've

got disney that's being left behind i do

actually think that could set up for a

glorious q1 for disney because quite

frankly the parks are what carry disney

especially after the debt they acquired

after c21 fox that acquisition and the

spending they do on disney plus the

parks carry them the parks are going to

kill it here in q1 in my opinion uh for

for disney could be wrong about that but

you see the other large cap

caps not necessarily doing as well with

some of the apple and tesla of the likes

like for example adobe adobe guide slow

comes you know obviously it's been

trending down

large caps overall though doing quite

well in fact this morning in our course

member live stream and afterwards i

posted quite a few pictures that that

show some really weird correlations that

are happening with rising yields and i'm

just going to give a bottom line here if

you're really interested in those

details you can check out my programs on

building your wealth in fact today only

we are doing uh the opportunity for you

to use the payment plan to join the

courses i usually don't like doing

payment plans but we've activated these

payment plans i think they were

accidentally up for like an hour on

friday but i didn't mention anything

because we were testing it uh but the

payments plan the payment plans are now

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wealth so if you wanted a payment plan

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over five six seven months and you want

it to be in uh and you want to see my

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whatever or these images i'm talking

about check out stocks and psychology

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payment plan and boom here it is it's

only going to be up today and we're

closing out the payment plan

so uh okay now this is critical as well

is is we got to look at okay well these

these particular charts let me finish

the thought on those particular charts

so the charts are telling us that small

caps and mid caps are having problems

right now and that's not good smalls and

mids have a terrible trend right now and

only selective large caps are doing well

again like tesla the nasdaq over overall

the russell's lagging

and this is all as the 10 years going up

which is while the 10 years going up

but bitcoin tesla and selective large

caps are doing quite well while the mids

and the smalls are lagging substantially

behind these on a relative basis these

are some of the charts these are some

conclusions from the charts that we were

looking at

and this is a concern because sure those

could u-turn but at least for the time

being the trend is smalls and mids are

going to keep getting stepped on and if

you've got smalls and mids in consumer

discretionaries

and or real estate and we potentially

have a slowdown in real estate which

leads to not only a slowdown in real

estate related stocks but a slowdown in

consumer discretionary stocks you got

issues here okay like i get the whole

like

buy and hold i'm looking 15 years out

like great if that's you you want to buy

the indices you want to buy a few choice

stocks buy and hold forever great but

i'm going to tell you what i'm seeing in

the market and and then it's up to you

what you want to do right i think for

the vast majority of people buy and

huddle makes sense especially if you

have a diversified portfolio and most of

it in index funds and you're looking for

an opportunity to buy houses i think

you're going to get one here pretty soon

we'll see

but in terms of trades

i'm excited about a glorious q1 for dis

but i'm not so excited about the

consumer discretionary trend especially

what we're seeing with housing and how

that's going to impact these other

stocks but then i get people are like

kevin it's a rising interest rate

environment why don't we get into the

banks maybe well here's the problem with

banks guess what what happened in 2021

we had a banner year for ipos the banks

together had 9.8 billion dollars in ipo

revenue how many freaking spax and ipos

are happening now not many why

well look around because the market's a

lot tougher right now to ipo anything in

right now you've got uh five billion

dollars of ipo and spac revenue in 2020

2.1 in 2019 and 1.95 in 2018. i wouldn't

be surprised if we go back to like the

2018 or prior levels of ipo revenue

which is going to be a terrible comp for

cut for banks on top of that as interest

rates go up lending and loan interest is

going to plummet car loans housing loans

it's all gonna plug

it's not good uh so this is one of the

reasons why you hear like these

institutions that are like oh yeah when

rates go up we go into the banks

i'm like

no you don't get it do you like that's a

bad idea right now

but whatever everybody's allowed to make

their own trades

uh so home building lending worried

about that and i'm worried that once we

get

potentially more real estate fear that's

going to start stripping some of our

consumer discretionary spending which is

going to be good for the hot air balloon

of inflation see i've actually been just

this morning i started with course

members i was making a reference to how

inflation is really like a hot air

balloon and so a hot air balloon of

inflation that we that jerome powell

first told us was transitory was that

last summer it's

okay we're printing money we're doing

all the stimulus the summer before and

and the beginning of 2021 uh all the

stimulus is in the economy we're still

stimulating through late 2021 right it's

crazy with the unemployment pay and then

the child tax credit i mean insane

amounts of stimulus

and we still got some of that coming in

the form of a child tax credit this tax

filing season is just not so much money

printing it's insane

but jerome powell believed that

inflation was going to be transitory and

that inflation would start inflecting

down in q3 and q4 of 2021 but what ended

up happening well the hot air balloon

was starting starting to rotate down

inflation was like okay yeah we're

relaxing you know inflation went up and

then the balloons kind of like okay

we're kind of like coasting down that's

that was the summer of 2021 then delta

hits screws up the supply chains what

happens when delta hits it's almost like

somebody opened up that valve on the hot

air balloon pulled the string whatever

and it would just

push that inflation right back up then

what happened okay the hot air balloon

starts chilling out inflation

expectations come down oh now we got war

so i don't think in the long run j-pow

is necessarily wrong that inflation will

be transitory the problem is we

literally like somebody keeps getting on

this freaking hot air balloon and

yanking on that joint a chain yoinking

on that chain going nope you think

inflation's coming you think this hot

air balloon is coming down

it's terrible so it's like eventually

the hot air balloon will come down but

right now we're suffering because some

idiots up there in hot air balloon going

it's terrible uh it and so

you know i i do think like commodities

for me they're they're no touch at some

of these levels that we're at but here's

here's sort of a big big big wrap up

bottom line on all of this

there is a flight to safety in select

mega and big caps

small caps mid caps lagging big maybe

it's a buy opportunity or next time the

market rotates down and large caps go

down these guys goes down go down even

more so be careful see what you think if

we do get a reduction in real estate

prices that is going to smack consumer

discretionary but it could also help

bring that hot air balloon down as we

crush aggregate demand right so so many

different things at play here my moves

well every single move i make obviously

in the courses check out that payment

plan that's active for today only it's

march 28th but the really big thing for

me is patience i'm gonna trim a little

bit out of my consumer discretionaries

i'm going to trim a little bit out of my

smalls and mids and i'm going to be

careful i'm carefully watching the real

estate market i've been transparent

about my plans for selling real estate

and i'm let's just put it this way i'm

noticing a slow down i'll make another

uh larger update video but i'm noticing

a change already and this is what i saw

coming at the end of january and and

it's already here so that's going to

hurt again lending consumer

discretionary so that's why i want to

minimize my exposure to those maybe

consider the staples consider the

selective large caps but other than that

patience

if you want a yolo that's not part of a

large portfolio

but of course have at it and

congratulations to those of you in amc

and newegg alright folks thanks so much

we'll see in the next one and yes i

still hot on my mcshares thanks goodbye