The *MOST IMPORTANT* Fed Video EVER | The Fed Pivot CRASH.

and today folks JP Morgan finally

finally finally somebody else

acknowledged that there are two

different types of pivots I am so

grateful that finally somebody has

acknowledged that there is a different

type of pivot because what I keep seeing

on YouTube is this moronic chart that

doesn't show you that there are two

types of pivots this is the only chart

you see this is the only chart well

folks the JP Morgan recession argument

is out they are going to give us a

breakdown of whether they think this

Federal Reserve pivot is going to be

good for stocks or bad for stocks they

are going to compare to history to show

us how historically have Federal Reserve

pivots fared for stocks have they been

good have they been bad are there

different types of pivots hint yes and

what kind of pivot could we be facing

before we talk about the JP Morgan

analysis on a pivot though so I have to

remind you of something important and

that is Costco what has Kevin been

banging the table on for well basically

all year and basically the last six

months Kevin has been banging the table

about this idea that we are going to see

a massive slowdown in Staples and that

stocks that have performed very well

with uh the consumer staple stocks that

have performed very well the McDonald's

the Costco's the Johnson and Johnson are

likely to suffer as their sales will

likely plummet and their margins will

get squeezed well folks it has finally

happened these Costco failure has begun

and this is not to bag on Costco Costco

is a phenomenal company they have

brilliantly figured out how to make

money and I mean brilliantly figured out

how to make money they know they don't

make money off of selling food in fact

if you go to some of their earning

statements that's an older one finding

uh let me see here if we go to an

earning statement from Costco an older

one that I have handy here what do we

find we find that the vast majority of

their bottom line comes from membership

revenues they make about 10 on the crap

they sell you and about 98 on the

memberships that they have which when

you then look at the bottom line the net

income uh before taxes for Costco uh in

Feb uh for the 12 weeks ending Feb 12

2023 was sitting at about one uh

0.98 billion dollars of that about a

billion so more than half came from

membership revenues because the margins

are so high on the membership revenues

so it's it shouldn't be surprising that

Costco has brilliantly figured out how

to make money off of you it is not on

the stuff it is on the membership that

is what makes this company wildly

profitable it is just like McDonald's

McDonald's doesn't actually make the

bulk of their money on selling you Mech

nuggets they make the bulk of their

money by selling

McDonald's owners known as franchisors

McNuggets that's how McDonald's makes

most of their money substantially

unfortunately these flight to safety

staple stocks are getting hit and I want

to start with this by telling you that

in my opinion this is where Starks get

hit the worst and the hardest before I

tell you about the JP Morgan piece which

led the JB Morgan piece on the FED pivot

is mind-blowing but what just happened

take a look at this Costco sales once

you take out a foreign exchange and gas

benefits e-commerce sales in the last

five weeks folks negative

12.7 that is if you now take inflation

off of that they're down like 20 on

e-commerce but then again e-commerce for

Costco come on okay fine Let's ignore

e-commerce well now you're down 1.5

percent in the US down two point four

percent in Canada add inflation in guess

what you're down about 10 10 percent

inflation adjusted in real terms in the

last five weeks in Canada in the last 31

weeks or Canada and the U.S in the last

31 weeks you're also on a real basis

that is inflation-adjusted Basis

negative if you don't provide uh the uh

the uh adjustment for foreign exchange

and gas what we find is that the five

weeks ending April 2nd saw an increase

of only half of a percent from last year

they're basically flat there is no

growth left at Costco even with

inflation there is no growth left so

what gets hit next what gets hit next is

nothing other than margin that's the way

it works margin gets hit next now Beyond

this we need to talk about this JP

Morgan recession piece because it's huge

JPMorgan is basically telling you as

soon as possible you should

Hedge for the FED pivot that is

approaching because guess what it is a

problem and you should be prepared for

the FED pivot but wait a minute what fed

pivot because Kevin aren't there

different types of fed pivots yes and in

this segment we are going to talk about

those particular pieces now I want to be

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price going forward so what do we have

here well we have

Market implied Fed rate expectations

showing the market is expecting a pivot

to be delivered over the next two to

three meetings by the Federal Reserve

looking at market performance around

previous fed Cuts suggests that

near-term upside is limited if Market

implied timing is correct post Cuts

markets have sold off strong if Cuts

were delivered ahead of recessions while

markets performed well if Cuts were

delivered preemptively and managed to

re-accelerate growth from today's point

of view it's hard to construct a

sustainable bull case and further

downside appears more likely we believe

the case for putting on hedges in this

juncture is very strong especially if

these are funded by shorting upside

that's called selling calls by the way

thus which you learn about in the stocks

and site Group by the way thus

reflecting the asymmetrical risk we see

in near-term equity markets okay

fantastic now what does this mean okay

let me try to simplify this very quickly

so here's what this means there are two

different types of pivots and this is

very important to understand because I

have been pounding the table over the

FED pivot for the last six months and

I've been yelling at this idea about

there's a difference between the FED

pivot and the FED U-turn and today folks

JP Morgan finally finally finally some

somebody else acknowledged that there

are two different types of pivots I am

so grateful that finally somebody has

acknowledged that there is a different

type of pivot because what I keep seeing

on YouTube is this moronic chart that

doesn't show you that there are two

types of pivots this is the only chart

you see this is the only chart it shows

fed pivot and then a big minus sign

but they forget the U-turn pivots and so

I've obviously made many videos talking

about how the u-turns are blatant

u-turns are actually where these little

X's are these green x's and the u-turns

tend to mark a bottom in stocks which

means stocks rally after the u-turn

so what's the difference between a pivot

and a U-turn well thank the Lord finally

somebody and this somebody being JP

Morgan has put together a phenomenal

piece to explain it to us now I'm going

to read their piece first to you after I

read their piece to you I am going to

translate it to English but I think both

of them are very important okay so we

believe the upcoming fed meeting on May

3rd or on June 14th could turn out to be

a pivotal moment for the near-term

direction of markets so in other words

expect an inflection point coming to

markets very very soon this is going to

be important okay Market implied rates

are showing a 45 probability of rate

hikes or an 11 basis point uh hike for

May okay we can't hike by 11 BP but when

they say that that's just what what the

average is right so they're basically

saying 45 percent times 0.25 is about

11. that's roughly what they're trying

to say here okay the cuts from July

onward would then occur with the market

pricing in 2.6 cuts by the year end JP

Morgan thinks there's going to be a hike

of 25 basis points in May before the

potential pivot starting as soon as June

or July JPMorgan is expecting 200 000

jobs in the jobs report tomorrow fine

that doesn't matter so much now Powell

has indicated in March a dove a shift

would not be a reflection of conviction

around inflation Dynamics but a

recognition that tighter credit

conditions could contribute to slowing

growth so I wrote on this I'm torn on

that I actually do not think the Federal

Reserve will pivot at all ever until

inflation is convincingly on the path

down that is very clear to me it's very

clear to me because the Federal Reserve

is a necessitating that inflation

expectations remain low

by the way unemployment claims uh just

coming out now unemployment claims

coming in at 228 that is above the

survey of 200 000 that suggests a weaker

economy continuing claims coming in at

1.823 million versus the survey of 1.7

million both of these numbers higher

than expected holy crap the prior

revision holy crap the prior revision

was now we have the unemployment claims

of last month move from 198k to 246.

that is a a massive 25 revision to the

prior number and the continuing claims

for the prior month were moved from

1.689 to 1.817 million in other words

the economy already much weaker than the

data is showing much weaker than the

data is showing that is recessionary

news recessionary news Okay recessionary

news just out in the midst of recording

this now continuing on here looking past

the pivots okay so let me finish the

thought here so finishing the thought of

me being torn on this I don't think the

FED pivots until they are convinced

inflation is down that will be become

that will become very very important

when I explain the two different types

of pivots using a JPMorgan as an aide

here looking at past pivots suggests

that the Steep yield curve inversion we

are seeing now would have triggered a

rate cut already had it not been for

this highly unusual inflation that's

important very important to remember

because what they're saying is

at this point the yield curve is already

so inverted we are in such a

recessionary environment the FED has

beaten this economy to the ground so

heavily they have taken our neck and

driven it into the mud for so long that

we're already choking with a lack of

oxygen

that ordinarily the FED would have cut

by now so JP Morgan can't even get it

straight here on one hand they're like

well ordinarily they would have cut by

now but they're not cutting because

inflation is high exactly this is why

this Dove a shift has everything to do

with inflation Dynamics so JP Morgan

kind of contradicting themselves right

here a little bit but that's just my

opinion but then again I I I I like to

uh add criticism and commentary the

reason we expect a strong risk-off

reaction in June If the Fed does not

indicate a pivot is that the FED may

have already over tightened increasing

the likelihood of a deep recession all

right so the first lesson that you need

to take away from this JPM piece the

first thing that you need to take away

we're going to go through this order so

actually I should say first we talked

about Costco that's the weakening of

Staples this is why you want to be

finding pricing power style stocks you

can learn more about those at meet

kevin.com pricingpower stocks meet

kevin.com to learn more about this uh

then you're going to learn about the

JPMorgan argument that if the FED does

not pivot by June markets price in in

more severe recession this is actually

compounded by data that we just got

minutes ago about unemployment claims we

use the UI even though that stands for

unemployment insurance that tends to be

a a a away the government refers to

unemployment but anyway

all right

so that means potentially over

tightening right so that's over

tightening okay but you're going to

learn something else now

so JP Morgan assumes a lag time of six

months this suggests we have only seen

about half of the pain of rate hikes now

I want you to think about that from a

banking crisis point of view from a

banking crisis point of view we have

only seen half of the rate hikes

about 2.5 percent

which means that the banking crisis or

uh the crimp on economy on the economy

could be just 50 percent progressed now

In fairness

uh worth sort of hedging this on the

banking crisis side banking crisis does

though benefit from lower T yields uh

and those T yields have been falling

which helps prevent a continuation of

the banking crisis that's why in my

opinion we haven't actually seen the

banking crisis continue and more Banks

defaulting because bonds have risen

remember bonds rise in price when yields

fall just just remember that bottom line

right there we don't have to fully

explain it right now uh okay good so

there's going to be in more there's a

lot in this piece okay uh by the way but

shout out to stream yard uh stream yards

really cool they're letting me stream

this in a hotel right now uh not only

that but I'll be able to edit this video

using the stream yard platform later

it's really cool so not only can you

record video with it you throw up

banners throw up the little ticker at

the bottom that you see I could throw up

comments as well like there's somebody

here watching on strip oh I saw on that

strip on on Twitch uh chillix says I'm

in the hospital watching well I hope you

recover whatever your problem is and now

you're sending a little prince Emoji

fantastic so anyway check out house um

sorry stream yard by kevin.com paid

promotion there so what do we have here

we have the lag time uh then we have

talk about commercial real estate losses

potentially 350 to 400 billion dollars

of commercial real estate losses which

would approach the level of losses seen

in the great financial crisis but that's

not even the fun part ready for the fun

part this is the fun part this is this

is a lot I urge you to buckle up I'm

going to make this as simple as possible

and so if somebody says highlight me bro

I will do that

all right buckle up but this could be

the most important video that you watch

on the FED pivot and if somebody once

again comes and starts complaining and

saying stocks are definitely going to go

down in the FED pivot I'm going to choke

them

and I'm going to make them get life

insurance and then I'm going to choke

them

uh anyway all right listen to this

actually I'm going to make this a little

simpler you see this chart okay

this chart says that in the blue line

stocks go up after the FED pivot where

is the Fed pivot it's right here in the

middle see where I put the P fed pivot f

p fed pivot middle okay so that means

there's an inflection point here

and here let's actually draw that in

green here and here is where the

inflection point is right where the FED

pivot is so why is it that on one hand

stocks go up and in the other fed pivot

stocks go down what's the difference

again this could potentially be the most

important video you watch on

understanding the FED pivot let's

explain it using jpmorgan's words then I

will use my own by January of 2024 the

market is expecting 3.5 rate Cuts or 85

basis points of rate cuts

a JPS JPMorgan macro strategist pointed

out if the FED had cut rates at the

speed

it was cutting because the economy had

already entered into a recession in 1990

2001 and 2007 when it started easing as

a reaction to Market stress or mild

slowdowns uh in 87 89 95 98 growth

eventually picked up okay I'm going to

translate this because this is

complicated basically they're saying the

FED pivoted once in 90 2001 and 2007.

then you had these different fed pivots

we're going to talk about those in a

moment

and they hear they talk about there's a

distinction between the pivots there's a

mid-cycle pivot or a pre-recession pivot

and both of those lead to different

reactions in the market so pre-cycle and

mid-cycle okay let's start here with

this

pre-recession a pre-recession pivot is

the typical pivot people talk about a

pre-recession pivot is bad this is when

the FED has lost control lost the lead

this is when the FED has no control when

the FED has lost control it means they

have over tightened and because they

have over tightened and the FED has once

again screwed up and they have lost

control the FED may actually have

created a recession without conquering

inflation which ultimately is the worst

case scenario a pre-recession pivot is

bad so a PRP is actually this red line

here

in a p r p stocks go down in a

pre-recession pivot stocks go down

however

in a mid-cycle pivot

in other words Kevin's U-turn which I've

been banging the table about for

actually since January of 2022. since

January of 2022 I've been saying wait

for the FED U-turn the FED U-turn will

be glorious

the FED U-turn has happened in 87 in 89

as they mentioned in the 90s during the

soft Landing but more importantly it

happened in 87 2003 and 2009. the FED

U-turn is what you want the FED U-turn

is the Fed saying okay basically we're

going to turn the money printers on

because we have the end of the

tightening cycle is here we may have

tightened too far inflation has been

conquered and because inflation is

conquered we are going to turn the money

printers on like crazy and prevent a

nasty recession we're going to cut bigly

and we're going to go back to

quantitative easing okay that then leads

to the following chart

in a U-turn scenario in three months

after a U-turn scenario stonks my

friends stonks

go up almost every sector of stocks goes

up after a Fed u-turn

which is a mid-cycle pivot however

almost every sector of the stock market

goes down in a pre-recession pivot this

is the most important distinction and I

think probably one of the most important

videos and that's why it will feature

every single sponsor that Kevin can

possibly think about from 12 free stocks

with Weeble by going to metcaven.com

free phenomenal platform

from Life Insurance you can get into

those five minutes by going to my

kevin.com life and of course streamyard

how I stream this video making an

outcome stream so what do we know about

this well what we know about this is the

following JP Morgan and their opinion is

that we are actually more likely to see

a pre-recession rate cut in other words

JP Morgan is taking the bearish point of

view JP Morgan does not believe

inflation will be solved Timely

so let's go to our conclusion page here

okay so let's zoom out on the conclusion

page let's do number four

JPMorgan believes we are going to get a

pre-recession pivot the bad pivot

that's bad for pretty much

all stocks and it's likely If the Fed

does not control inflation that would be

bad it's the stagflationary recession

higher for longer it's painful stay in

cash uh

yeah protect yourself

okay

then there is the other potential this

is the Kevin belief okay so it's either

JP Morgan or Kevin here okay if you

believe them

maybe we can still have a cup of coffee

together

but if you believe me we can go skiing

together

all right

Kevin

believes you know I do flip-flop a lot

but I think on really important things I

don't uh I have maintained

Kevin has believed

since January of 2022 that a massive fed

U-turn will come as soon

as inflation proves transitory

okay we're still just now in that

process

labor inflation is basically gone look

at any earnings call from Chipotle

Starbucks Uber Lyft Darden McDonald's

any of the recent earnings calls

cloudflare that we've been looking at in

terms of of of of people actually

earning wages wages

have capped wage growth is slowing

substantially

inflation is going to go away the

substantial uh supply chain shortages

that we had are going to turn into

massive supply chain gluts a glut by the

way is uh is a massive amount of uh of

uh of of Supply uh someone here

commented hey and you're a mod too

that's it you're demodded because you

have a different opinion than me I'm

just kidding I'm not going to do that

it's fine somebody here writes two-year

experience Kevin hey man that's an

insult it's like 13 years okay come on

man okay 13 years of experience versus

100 year old JPM all right let's make

this let's let's just uh let's just make

a comparison over here okay you ready

for this comparison January of 2022

Kevin meets with JPM strategists for

dinner

those strategists include people who

used to work at the Fed

Kevin says we are going into recession

I'm selling bye

JPM says we see a 15 chance of recession

[Laughter]

okay that was January of 2022

actually happened

I have proof

actually happened uh I had a fight over

that dinner table and as the only person

pounding the table going you need to

wait for the FED U-turn basically okay

now there's a chance the stock market

May bottom before the U-turn because the

U-turn is so clearly uh established now

but the point is that was my opinion in

January of 2022. I was very clear about

that I've always been very clear about

that and my opinion has not changed on

that

okay I just believe the bottom will come

before the actual U-turn this cycle uh

just based on my estimations now yeah I

could be wrong now Kevin is saying yes

still recession shallow recession but

shallow but we will have the FED U-turn

because inflation proves to be

transitory JP Morgan is saying okay fine

yes we're going to go into a recession

but inflation won't be transitory so

pick your side pick your side it's

totally fine like I still I still like

you uh and and like I mean I went to

Peter schiff's house what do you think

Peter Schiff uh uh thinks about all this

I mean I think it's obvious you could

watch the interview so I think it's very

obvious that people have different

opinions and you can still get along

with other people but let's be very

clear this is what we're looking ahead

at either a U-turn or a pivot it's very

simple and if you want my perspectives

first make sure you join those programs

by building your wealth I get regular

emails of people say Kevin I watch you

every day

because you give me so many trade ideas

and I made so much money listening to

your content uh whether it's in the

course member lives or otherwise and so

thank you and shout out to those people

uh obviously no guarantees I mean yes

I'm a licensed financial advisor but I

can't give you personalized Financial

advice I can't do it for you if I could

do it for you okay you know we'd all be

rich

um but uh but I could definitely share

my insights as much as possible so uh

let's let's just put a conclusion on

this because I think it's it's pretty

pretty powerful

JPMorgan finally after a year we finally

have an institution responding to this

fraudulent argument that the pivot only

exists in a bad Direction finally

finally we have the realization that

there are two forms of a pivot I've been

screaming it for months and finally we

have institutional analysis on it thank

God oh you know what we should do let's

do a quick poll I think this would be

really cool so what we're going to do is

we are going to pull the live audience

now remember I like to stream daily I I

really try my hardest to start at 4 20

a.m Pacific time I am usually late but

that is my goal I'm going to now run a

poll to those of you in the audience you

turn

positive uh or let's do fed u-turn

good for stocks or

PRP pre-recession pivot bad

for stocks

pre-r pivot

you turn let's run a poll and in about a

minute I'm only going to give about 60

seconds to see what your thoughts are on

the poll the poll is Live Now go to the

chat answer the poll question I don't

mind taking the L if I'm if I'm wrong

but at least I'll give you my opinion uh

so again uh I'm convinced that inflation

is coming down I am also convinced that

the FED has overtyped I am also

convinced that the FED is probably going

to go with the 25 basis point uh hike I

believe the FED is going to keep doing

that because I I believe this okay I'm

gonna pretend to be Jay Powell uh and uh

and then we're gonna go through the poll

results okay ready if I'm Jay Powell

this is my opinion and this is not going

to sound anything like Jerome Powell but

I'm going to use I don't know probably

agenda templates or something like that

because it's funny to me it doesn't have

to be funny to you

um J pair and I know we have to keep

inflation expectations anchored so I'm

just going to keep saying that there's

upside risk and

um we're gonna just uh do another hike

uh because psychologically we're gonna

get to five percent and then once we're

at five percent uh we we will have about

lots of time and we'll have hopefully

gotten lots of reports to convince us

that inflation is down and then maybe

we'll Purge but after we purge we can

never go up again because we don't want

to repeat the mistakes in the 70s or 80s

uh we don't want to Aaron Burr markets

and we technically don't want to power

vocal markets because I want my face on

Mount Rushmore and if I could stick a

shaft Landing I will go down as a hero

so therefore as Jerome power I would uh

really like inflation to be transitory

but I'm going to trick people into

thinking I'm going to hike us into

Oblivion but I'm basically just going to

cut rates on Sunday five percent to zero

and uh and and we'll go back to the Moon

all right that's that's my take terrible

terrible impression uh it's that's okay

all right

now the results of the poll uh out of 6

000 of you watching only 809 of you

voted what are you doing are you sitting

on the toilet like unable to push a

button it's fine I respect you anyway I

understand people turn me on just to

listen to me ooh all right u-turn

60 percent

pre-recession pivot bad for stocks 39

out of 820 votes okay pretty good I'm

sure that's statistically significant so

all right that ends now JPMorgan

recession piece and my thoughts on shape

oh