this is getting worse

All right. So, China is being a bad

friend in my opinion. Now, I'm going to

break down what I mean by this, but it

has important considerations for this

whole Trump China trade deal. Now, look,

Donald Trump has done a fantastic thing

in the Middle East so far with Israel

and Hamas, but I don't know if he's

going to be as successful with the China

trade deal. And it's not because I have

anything against Donald Trump. It's

because of what I'm seeing the Chinese

say on a daily basis. While at the same

time, Donald Trump is like,

"Everything's great. Xiinping is my best

friend." I mean, he doesn't say, but but

to to some extent, he's sort of like,

"We're great friends. She's a great man.

We're gonna have a great deal. It's

going to be the one of one of the

greatest deals ever." By the way, have I

told you how many wars I have solved.

Tariffs.

Anyway, every time Donald Trump does

this, the Chinese dump on us. And I want

you to see this directly. These are

their words or I'll I'll talk it to you

since I'm on an iPhone. I'm in Hawaii.

I'm on a balcony. It's like 6:00 a.m.

over here. I've been live for like 3

hours. Okay. It's weird. Actually, it's

5:56 a.m. which is weird because you're

waking up at 2:30 in the morning to try

to like help people out with the meet

Kevin Alpha report in the morning. It's

crazy. Which, by the way, MP material,

which will be related to what we're

about to talk about, keeps going down.

MP material is down another 6.7%. The

reason I sort of tangentially jumped

into that after mentioning the alpha

report was because we wrote in the alpha

report this runs to 100 and tops at 100

and it's down 24% since topping at 100.

So if you're not part of that yet, join

in the meet membership at mikv.com.

Okay. So after Donald Trump met the PM

of Australia yesterday,

we'll just put this all together here

for you. The Global Times, which is

basically your Chinese propaganda wing,

puts out an article going, "This deal

cannot shake China's dominant status in

the supply chains for rare earths in the

short term." Basically, they're like,

"China is way ahead, and Australia

should be careful." They're literally

threatening Australia by saying that

Australia should be careful because if

they cozy up to the United States, they

risk quote missing the big picture and

suffering long-term losses if they keep

being a staunch ally of the United

States. This is like I don't understand

how that's supposed to reconcile with

Donald Trump going is a great friend.

We're going to make the greatest deal

ever. Nobody knows deals, right? like

that doesn't it just doesn't reconcile

reconcile like yesterday Donald Trump's

like we signed an F-35 deal we have the

greatest aircraft ever and then what

happens you've got Australia which

violates apparently allegedly China's

airspace and China runs news headlines

about this violation now China is

actually alleging that that was done on

purpose to show that Australia is trying

to align with the United States or at

least that's how China sees it and so

China's like hey Australians you guys

are going to lose us as a friend if you

cozy up to the United States. Just this

morning, the Chinese are begging the

Europeans to partner with them. I mean,

just look it up. China European video

conference calls. This is common. China

is trying to get everybody on their side

in a sort of an us versus them manner,

but it doesn't reconcile with this idea

that we're actually going to get a good

trade deal on November 1st. So, but is

it going to be a not a bullish catalyst?

It's actually going to be a negative

catalyst, right? So, this is also very

interesting. As is classic, Donald Trump

announces these sort of deals and most

of the time these deals are frameworks

of deals, sort of concepts of plans and

they eventually hopefully evolve into

something unlike the healthcare plan

from Trump. Oh, the MAGA people are

going to get pissed for me saying that

but whatever. Um, so without the China

writes this without revealing any

details about that plan, he claimed that

within a year we'll have so many

critical minerals and rare earths you

won't know what to do with them.

China then suggests that the United

States does not have the processing

capacity and neither does Australia to

actually pull off these rare earths

because they call it an extremely high

technical threshold for rare earth

purification. China, by the way, MP

Material used to sell the vast majority

of their rare earths that they raw

collected to China. That's how they made

most of their money is they dig the rare

earths and they'd send them to China

because they can't process it in the

United States. Now the idea is that you

know with the government equity stake in

MP material uh and you know maybe a

5year time horizon MP material will

catch up but a lot of people are like

wait a minute what'll actually end up

happening is you'll have China just

continue to advance and they'll still be

way ahead of us. In fact here China is

one of the countries mastering the most

advanced technology in this high

precision purification technology and

achieved larger scale production. Now

obviously it's Chinese propaganda. You

have to understand what they're doing is

they're basically saying, "Hey, this is

us versus them." Okay? If you partner

with the US, you're not partnering with

us. We have the technology, you don't.

And they're right. Like, you have to

like, you have to also give the credit

where credit is due. They're right. We

don't have the production capability

right now. Then China, this is the

propaganda part where where they go,

they cannot shake China's dominant

position in the rare earth supply. But

this reminds China to accelerate its own

reserves of critical resources on a

global scale. So they pick up on us

saying we want to derisk from China as

evidence as to why they want to keep

trying to get ahead of us. Then they

totally dunk on us. Like how is somebody

who's trying to partner with China or

with with Donald Trump to make a deal,

how do they write stuff like this? The

submarine deal that the United States

partnered with Australia on, even if it

ends up getting approved, will probably

not be delivered on time, considering

the United States's manufacturing

capacity can hardly meet its domestic

needs. Bloomberg in September 24

reported that the US Navy's new Virginia

class submarines slipped two to three

years behind schedule and are projected

to run 17 billion over their planned

budget through 2030. So in other words,

I mean obviously we're looking at this

as as you know the propaganda wing of

the Chinese, but this is what they're

saying. This is in addition to them

dumping on us yesterday. They literally

call what we're doing quote band-aid

diplomacy. they're dunking on us hard.

This comes at the same time as you've

got the economist saying so far markets

are weathering the loss of confidence.

However, there is a red flag in markets

right now. If you look at shares of

companies that are called business

development companies or kind of like

REITs but for not real estate rather

like business loans and one ticker you

could look up is Maine, M A I N like

Main Street. Uh it has a dividend yield

of 5.28%.

But it's tanked recently from Yeah, it's

tanked about what 15-ish% just on the

sort of first brand's news. And a lot of

people are of the impression that this

is going to keep tanking because people

are now nervous that things that are

supposed to be AAA rated really actually

aren't AAA rated. For example, you look

at what Bloomberg is reporting that

investors are pulling cash from CLLO

ETFs in the biggest outflow since April.

So CLLOs's are collateralized loan

obligations. Apparently these were

getting inflows of $421 million over the

past year every single week. Last week

$516 million outflow which is a delta of

a billion.

And I mean I was joking in the live

stream this morning. I'm like man you

know if I had to make a 2008 fund I

would probably name it something like

the Janice Henderson AAA rated CLLO ETF

that actually exists. Apparently, they

invest in the highest rated CLLO bonds.

These collateralized loan, it just so

much reminds me of 2007 to 2008, but

whatever. Uh, scary. This comes on top

of obviously there's reporting that, you

know, the longer this government

shutdown goes on, the more economic

damage we're going to cause to our GDP.

In 2008, sorry, in 2018, the government

shutdown cost the government about point

a little less than 0.1% of GDP per week.

which means that uh every 10 weeks takes

about 1% off of GDP. Uh and part of that

is because we actually still have to pay

people for not working because we back

pay them but then a lot of these

government workers who are fur furlowed

they didn't do work. So we lose twice

like we're not saving the money because

we still have to pay the people when

they come back to work but then we don't

get the productivity. So that's why GDP

ends up taking a hit apparently. So 10

weeks I would guess I mean the shutdown

started October 1st. I would guess this

is probably going to be done by December

15th, which would be a 10-we shutdown.

Takes 1% off GDP. Not great. Now, AI has

been propping up GDP above that, but now

you're getting some red flags. I mean,

look at what's happening to Google

today. Google's down 5% because of the

rumored release of Operator, which will

be OpenAI's Well, it's down 3% now, so

it's popping around, but there's talk

that OpenAI is going to release the uh

operator browser, and this is leading

Google to sell off. Now, in fairness,

it's basically at all-time highs. So,

it's like, who really cares? But part of

this is because people are nervous that,

you know, Google's search mode gets

absorbed. Uh, but also consider this.

Tele or TechCrunch had a great article.

They talked about uh at GPT

download growth is slowing down for the

app. They talk about uh daily average

time spent on the app is down 22.5%

since July and average sessions are down

20.7%.

This indicates users are spending less

time in GPT and are opening at fewer

times per day. Now there's this idea

that okay well maybe it's going down

because people are getting answers more

efficiently but it's not just that uh

time is going down uh but it's also that

the number of sessions are declining

right and so the idea here is that

because both are going down people are

not only putting in fewer queries into

GPT from its peak this summer but

they're spending less time in the app.

Techrunch, they could be wrong, but

they're kind of arguing that like maybe

people have kind of found their way. The

people who like Perplexity use it. The

people who like Gemini, they use that.

Uh the people who use GPT, they use

that. But now we're capping out. And

then the question is, if we're capping

out over there, what does that mean

longer term for the AI trend? Well, now

there's literally a report that Nvidia

is going to issue loan guarantees to

OpenAI, which is crazy because Nvidia is

going to uh invest in OpenAI

and what is it? For every gigawatt of

power centers that are opened up, Nvidia

is going to essentially unlock $10

billion to OpenAI. But now OpenAI is

going to turn around and use that to buy

Nvidia chips. Some of these are going to

be loans. Nvidia is now going to backs

stop

from what we're hearing some of Nvidia's

lo some of OpenAI's loans. Now

guaranteeing loans works great when the

market is going up. But what happens

when all of a sudden the market goes

down and all of a sudden OpenAI stops

buying chips or they stop generating

revenue which mind you open AAI spending

like a hundred you know billion dollars

uh over the next five years on on

investments probably honestly a lot more

on infrastructure uh you're probably

looking at closer to to half a you know

trillion dollars uh is are sort of the

projections from Sam Alman

uh and so they generate revenue of about

$13 billion ion dollar per year. So

you're losing money hand over fisk, not

even including the investments. You

include the investments, it's insane.

But yeah, eight hours ago, Nvidia

discusses loan guarantee for OpenAI,

guaranteeing some of the loans OpenAI is

planning to take out

to build its own data centers. That's

scary cuz it just means like we're

getting to that phase where people are

getting so nervous about credit markets

and debt. Part of it could be related to

China that people are saying, "All

right, if we're going to lend to OpenAI,

we need a loan guarantee. We need Nvidia

to guarantee it and let them put their

$4 trillion, you know, market cap behind

this." And it suggests we're kind of

getting to the last innings of the run

here. Now, that's not to say that things

are going to fall off a cliff anytime

soon. You know, obviously the last

couple days have been great. We were

very optimistic in the Meet Kevin Alpha

report on Friday and Monday. Less so

today. Not very optimistic today because

a lot of people get nervous before

Netflix earnings. It's very common.

Still bearish MP material right now

because we capped out at 100.

And I'm a little under the weather too.

Sorry about that. But uh hey, shout out

though to the Meek Kevin Alpha board.

Still putting it together. So if you

want it, you still get it. Go to meet

meekke.com, sign up, use coupon code

Schumer Siesta. Probably gonna expire

that coupon code soon. I don't actually

think the government shutdown is going

to end until probably either before

Thanksgiving or after Thanksgiving. Like

right around then is when I think the

shutdown ends because remember

Republicans, this is my opinion,

Republicans want to solve the healthcare

issues because they don't want to be

branded as the, you know, the face of,

hey, you increased healthcare premiums

for everyone. And Republicans are like,

oh, just pass a clean resolution. We'll

debate healthcare later.

They know Democrats won't go for that.

So, they get their shutdown. They get

the opportunity to delay jobs reports

and data collection and fire a bunch of

people, which is what Donald Trump

wants. Donald Trump invites everybody

for dinner to say, "Thank you for being

so unified." That was yesterday. To all

the Senate Republicans and otherwise,

which is not a surprise.

And come around Thanksgiving before,

right before or after, Trump will be

like, "All right, we did the work we

needed to do. Let's go ahead and give

them their healthcare and it'll reopen."

That's part of, you know, the Trump 4D

chess. But this is all coming at the

same time

that this China deal, I know Trump is

talking really optimistically about it,

but based on what China's saying, man,

I'm much more nervous than they are or

than than than markets are about uh

about this China deal. Actually, don't

think China benefits much from doing the

deal with us because they want this to

be us versus them. They want people to

partner with China because they make fun

of our manufacturing capacity every

chance they get. They make fun of our

economy. They make fun of our government

structure, our capitalistic structure.

They make fun of everything they can to

bag on us. So, I think they see us as

the enemy. That's scary. But the good

news is you can get yourself an ally by

going to meet Kevin.com. We'll see you

there, folks. I appreciate y'all. And

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