The Worst Economic Data on the United States Since 2007

We got more bad news this morning, but

this bad news could just be a speed bump

on the road to new all-time highs. We're

going to talk about that bad news and

both the ISMs, uh what's going on in the

S&P manufacturing numbers, what's going

on with not only the Federal Reserve, uh

hint Powell speaks later today. Uh and

then of course what's going on with AI,

private credit, the labor market, and

updates at least in terms of potentially

where to invest uh in this crazy world.

So with that, uh let's get started. It

is Cyber Monday, so remember at meet

kevin.com. We've got an expiring coupon

code tonight at 11:59 p.m. for the alpha

report. Uh, and of course the uh,

Reinvest AI over at househack.com or

reinvest.co. So, what did we get this

morning? Well, we got some reports that

just weren't that delicious. Bottom line

here is S&P global US manufacturing PMI,

I call it not great, not terrible, just

like the Chernobyl uh, you know, what is

it the Netflix or who I can't even

remember. HBO series, whatever it is,

watch it. It's amazing. #notsponsored. I

just I don't even know what platform

it's on, but anyway, record rise in

warehouse stocks. This is probably

because we've loaded up on tariffs.

Okay, that's one of the reasons GDP has

been booming. Uh we wanted to load up on

inventory before tariffs. It led to a

manufacturing recovery, which is great,

and it led to employment growth in

manufacturing, which that's fantastic.

But the problem is the future signal is

weak. Warehouses have filled unsold

stock to a green not seen since 2007.

That's bad. And the manufacturing is

giving potentially worrying signals that

we have a lack of new order inflows

which have quote slowed sharply and

suggest that a market weakening of

demand growth is coming. So in other

words, if new orders fall off a cliff,

it's really bad for GDP contributing

manufacturers. Why would new orders fall

off a cliff? Because I think we're going

through a lull period. So you get the

tariff here and then everybody wants to

boom boom boom bye bye bye bye bye.

Okay, now you've stocked all your

shelves and then you go through a lull

period as companies start testing and

passing through uh you know price

increases uh and then you could kind of

get back to normal manufacturing. So I

don't necessarily think that this dip

right here is anything too concerning.

Of course it could boil over if private

credit issues get worse or there's some

kind of bubble catalyst, but this isn't

necess this is like you would expect

this after the tariff pull forward we

had. Same thing over here at ISMs. Uh we

we are basically paying for the

inventory buildup. The GDP pump was a

bit fake as companies built up stock to

get ahead of most pair of pass through.

Those were my notes over here. But same

thing over here, a decline in new orders

compared to October. Manufacturing

activity contracted at a faster rate

with pullbacks in supplier deliveries,

new orders, and employment. Uh the

difference between these two reports is

that the ISM indicated declining

employment and the S&P indicated rising

employment. These are surveys of

different companies, but both of them

indicated the same decline in new

orders. So, yeah, it's a problem, but

it's probably nothing more than a speed

bump. It's sort of like the speed bump

that the market kind of had this

morning. So, this morning in our alpha

report, which is, you know, everybody

who's part of the Meet Kevin membership

gets this all the time. Uh, every day

the market's open. We do this pretty

much every day. Uh, this morning in the

alpha report, you know, we were turning

red. We were down like 80 basis points.

And I'm like, all right, here's the game

plan for today. My expectation is and

you can go watch this like this is a

recorded video. I play this live with my

course members and the archives been

there since like 2018 or 17 uh of of my

my live streams with course members. And

so what do I go I go hey I think the

volatility uh index VIX on the Dow is up

10%. I think it's going to drop

throughout the day. As it drops the cues

will rise. I wouldn't be surprised if we

go green. A test is going to be 617, but

we should be able to break through it

just like we did last Friday when we ran

to 619. However, wait the first 15

minutes. The first 15 minutes will

probably see some algorithmic selling

because the volatility index is up,

which means you'll get some algo

selling. And once that balances out, you

should be able to move up. And look,

folks, it's literally what happened.

First 15 minutes, you get your algo

sell. Now all of a sudden the volatility

index comes from plus 10% all the way

down to only up 2% and the cues are

almost green. Easy game. Anyway, if you

want those insights, make sure you're

part of the meek membership at

mekevin.com. You get those every day the

market is open. Now, what do we know

about uh well, not only you know these

ISMs uh and PMIs not necessarily

mattering so heavily, what do we know

about what else is going on? Well, we

know that JPAL was talking today, but

don't expect much out of JPAL and talk

about this in just a moment. The Zimp

piece that we'll talk about that towards

the end. Don't expect much from the

Federal Reserve. So, here it is. Jerome

Powell will be speaking at 8:00 p.m.

Eastern and he's going to give some

brief remarks uh and then he'll have a

panel discussion. This is very unusual

during a Fed blackout window. The Fed

had time after two weeks ago we got

those terrible ADP numbers. Uh the Fed

had time to talk up the odds of a rate

cut and they did exactly that. Waller

and Mary Dailyaly basically came out and

said, "Hey, we're going to get rate

cuts, a rate cut in December, but it's

probably going to be a hawkish cut. So,

we'll get our 25 cut and unfortunately

then we're going to have to deal with

hawkish commentary from Powell on the

10th, but and we're also going to get

ADP numbers over the next couple days.

So, you know, keep that in mind as well.

That'll be a fun catalyst. But anyway,

we're pretty much certain to get our

rate cut for uh December 10th, I don't

think we're going to get any commentary

at 5:00 today from Jerome Powell. So,

while I will live stream it, I wouldn't

hold my breath that anything

entertaining is going to happen here

other than Kevin pitching his expiring

coupon code tonight because there's

going to be a massive price increase.

So, you'll certainly get that that I can

guarantee you. Comments on uh you know,

economic or monetary policy, I I don't

actually think you're going to get. I

mean, Condisa Rice is going to be there.

So, you know, make what you will of

that. With that said, there was a spike

in the 102 curve today. Uh, this is

likely because of the Japanese carry

trade concerns given that the Bank of

Japan is likely to hike. Watch my

Japanese carry trade video for a more

detailed breakdown on exactly this. But

this is likely just a reaction to the

Japanese carry trade issue. That's why

we saw volatility pop this morning and

that's why we had that 15-minute

selloff. It's honestly it's it's a buy

the dip. Uh, I even wrote that I mean

you could see it on my barebull scale

this morning. On my bear bull scale this

morning I put myself at a five and I

said the carry trade fears are not

economic to us. Short-term vault, yes,

usually a buy the dip opportunity.

That's just from our little course

member buy the dip chart so we can or um

bull bear scale bear bull scale so we

can keep track of uh what level we're at

over time and see the change over time.

But this is why you're going to see

these headlines like US factory activity

shrinks by the most in 4 months. Uh what

matters more is obviously the labor

market. Uh and I actually really like

this economist piece from uh from uh

about the labor market. They're not

wrong to say that there are positive

things in the labor market. Like yes,

there are also concerning things 27

weeks unemployed and then things that

they reference uh such as uh you know

unemployment slowly creeping up though

it's historically low. Firms are laying

off people but again it's going to take

months for that to show up in layoffs

and and actual data and by then

hopefully we soft land. uh they talk

about the sum rule hasn't triggered yet

which is also good which means the pace

or the rate at which the rate of change

sort of the first derivative the the

speed at which jobless claims are going

up or the unemployment rate is going up

is actually relatively slow. So this is

sustainable and this could actually set

up set us up for a good 2026 where maybe

we just have a year of calm and clarity

they say. So the economist was actually

pretty positive on the labor market

which is great. Obviously you know

people are really worried about

artificial intelligence Nvidia and the

circular nature of everything. Nvidia

threw $2 billion into synopsis synopsis

synopsis whatever this morning. Um we

did a fundamental analysis this morning

on the company. I I don't know. I I

wouldn't call it like mega impressive.

You've got some PP issues over there.

Pricing power issues at Synopsis.

Honestly, what you know, somebody

donated $20 on my live stream and uh

asked me to look at UIP Path. Dude, that

Oh, what we saw there was fire. Thank

you for the $20 donation. Oh, that's

probably 20 bucks. This guy's gotten a

lot of shout outs, but it was good. I

really like that. Uh but anyway, uh you

know, and then of course at the same

time you have OpenAI taking a stake in

Thrive Holdings, which is interesting

because Thrive Holdings originally

invested like $500 billion into OpenAI.

So now it's like it's like now like I

give you give me $20, I'll give you $20.

Like what the hell is going on here? So

it's it's gotten so confusing and

convoluted and Thrive Holdings is like

operated by or Thrive Capital. Can't

even keep them all straight. Is run by

Josh Kushner who's the four-year younger

brother of Jared Kushner. And it's like

this is probably all just a in an effort

to get into the good graces of people

close to Trump. I don't know. It's

really confusing and very circular, but

that doesn't stop Morgan Stanley from

really shilling the idea that humanoid

robots are going to take over and you

should invest in humanoid robots. Uh

they have what I think is a little bit

of a confusing and misleading chart, but

they're really bullish on the whole

humanoid story. Uh and what they

recommend is that you invest in the

whole supply chain stack of chips

basically. So in the United States,

Nvidia, AMD, Amarella, On Semi, NXP,

Texas Instruments, Microchip, uh Sony

for Japan, Samsung, South Korea, BYD,

China, and many others. You could just

look here. Here's sort of the stack. But

they are like jumping up and down about

this whole humanoid uh you know push

that they're calling it a humanoid

species coming to farm work into factory

work and all the stuff we don't really

want to do right and they're probably

not wrong as long as humanoids can solve

their sensor issues the you know hand

issues that Elon Musk complains about

and then also let me pull it up here

what I wrote down uh the actuator and

joint issues. So, I wrote major issues

here. The reducers, the motors, the

sensors, uh issues in power management,

right? The batteries aren't strong

enough yet, the hands. Like, there's a

lot to be done here. And so, they're

arguing invest in the whole supply chain

stack. Basically, that's kind of an

interesting piece from Morgan Stanley.

You also have a note from Morgan Stanley

and Mike Wilson suggesting that mentions

of raise guidance spiked while mentions

of cautious fell and they're forecasting

a 17% EPS growth in 2026 as the average

company could see its first meaningful

earnings growth for the first time in

four years. I mean it wouldn't really

like I I wouldn't put it past our stock

market to see this mostly because I mean

I just try to put myself in the shoes of

a sort of a reporting company out there.

Uh, and I look at like our house hack AI

and our house hack AI is is ROI positive

uh already. I mean like shout out to all

those of you who've been joining it over

at househack.com or reinvest.co. Same

thing. But I mean y'all are signing up

for the MK membership or the reinvest

AI. Reinvest AI is probably selling like

7 to one right now. Uh, and it's amazing

because it shows like people want to

invest in AI technology. So, you know,

the boom is is going. Uh, so I mean

yeah, are there problems? Sure. Like

Amazon's going to do their uh Amazon

reinvent conference in Vegas this week.

They're going to pitch all their stuff.

Of course, the information is kind of

dumping on them, saying like their

product hasn't actually been the best.

Uh, and then of course the Census Bureau

says there's been sort of a lag in

adoption for artificial intelligence,

but that's still leading to, you know,

which I thought was a decent article

with the exception of them not listing

the the entire list of names, but the

Financial Times had an op-ed that they

published here where they talk about how

certain quality names have gotten pretty

cheap. Uh, I actually think Meta has

gotten exceptionally cheap. Uh, it's

trading for like a 1.2 peg. Everybody in

the comments here was pretty pissed that

they didn't actually include the list,

but somebody looked up the uh iShares

quality ETF and you could look at the

holdings for that wherever it was. Uh

and uh it is I think it's I can't find

it but anyway it was it's basically

names like Meta and Google and Nvidia

just the high quality names in America

and how there's an opportunity that's

coming to those because their price to

earnings ratios aren't actually that

expensive. I mean, frankly, at a fair

valuation, you could easily justify

Nvidia with these growth rates at $300.

Now, I'm not saying it's going to go to

$300 in the near term. I'm just saying

you could easily justify way higher

price. You could easily justify over

$1,000 for Meta Shares. Easy. You could

easily justify, 1370ish

bucks, uh, I guess that'd be 137 now,

uh, for Netflix. Pretty easy to justify.

Uh so like there's definitely some

upside but you know on the flip side you

can't for Tesla like Tesla or Poundier

these these have run a little too much

but we already know that. So uh somewhat

interesting and then of course at the

same time you've got Michael Sailor who

has to do everything he can to sort of

prop up his Ponzi. I mean I hate to say

it but that's that's all this whole like

stretch thing is. See, now in order to

fund Stretch and some of these other

preferreds, which are really dangerous,

by the way, like they could stop paying

dividends on these, and I expect that

they'll collapse. I really need to make

a whole independent video on those cuz

if you go through the disclosures on

Stretch, for example, it's got screaming

red flags all over it. We already went

through it in the Meet Kevin membership,

but I'll eventually make a public video

on it. But anyway, um yeah, so now

they're announcing a USD reserve. It's

basically a way saying, "Hey, we're

going to leave 1.4 4 billion in the bank

to pay dividends. This really shouldn't

be called a USD reserve. It should

really be called a dividend fund uh for

debt obligations because they they have

committed to make these distributions to

these different funds. Uh and they need

the cash to be able to do that.

Unfortunately, that means they have to

issue more uh Micro Strategy stock. And

so, of course, Micro Strategy is tanking

to try to prop up uh these funds that

are trying to extract capital out of,

you know, innocent retail investors. So,

it's going to be really interesting. Uh

I maintain that I'm not bearish Bitcoin.

I am bearish Ponzi. uh and I maintain

that Micro Strategy uh and and all these

feeder funds uh imploding will mark the

bottom of Bitcoin pricing for a

generation. So there will be a

generational buying opportunity when

this finally implodes. Michael Sailor is

under the impression that he can

essentially dilute this stock to zero

and that he'll always be able to issue

new stock. The part that he forgets is

as the share price comes down, every

time he issues a new share, he gets

fewer and fewer US dollars and he needs

those to pay out US dollar denominated

dividends. Uh otherwise, he's not

fulfilling the promise of like his

stretch fund. And if Stretch collapses,

it's going to be a big black eye to him

and Micro Strategy

and the liabilities that come out of

this are going to be massive. But, you

know, nobody wants to talk about that

right now. So yeah, I'm pretty bearish

on those. But anyway, uh that uh that,

you know, really kind of covers things

today. Again, expiring coupon code at

meet.com and uh houseack.com or

reinvest.com. Uh a trick that people are

doing is they're buying the Meet Kevin

membership and then they're looking at

the last alpha report which has a coupon

code where you can bundle up. Uh but

anyway, this was also very interesting.

We looked at how Ozimpic is changing the

way we spend money. And some of the

things are obvious like smaller clothes,

so good for clothing clothing brands,

bad for food. Uh 10% fewer expenses

expected at groceries from GLP1 users.

But there are some really interesting

side effects as well. Apparently, they

think fertility rates are going up with

pregnancy test kit usage up 148% within

the course of a year of using GLPS. That

was interesting. I mean, maybe because

people look better. supplements uh going

up 10% declines in groceries, quick

service restaurants, and tobacco, but a

14% increase in vegetables

uh or or and fresh fruit and 38% in

vegetables. That was surprising that you

know the health foods are actually going

up uh for fruits and vegetables and

sales of chips, baked goods, and

packaged cookies fell 6.7 to 11%. for

people on the medication. So, snack

foods down, alcohol down because of GLPs

down 14.5%.

And then of course maybe also an

opportunity for gyms because there's

muscle mass loss associated with uh

GLPS. So, wearable electronics, wearable

oral rings, you know, whatever. Uh Apple

watches and uh and then of course travel

because maybe people feel better about

themselves or whatever. I mean, these

are sort of the logical outcomes here.

So, uh, that's sort of like a broad

roundup of of all of the entertainment

today. I don't think we've really missed

anything. Oh, the one thing that we

missed that was crazy was you might

remember, and this is well, we'll call

this the humble meat cabin part, okay?

You might remember a few weeks ago when

Google announced the TPU partnership or

not partnership uh well it was actually

technically a buying partnership for you

know others to buy TPUs uh like Meta to

buy Google TPUs.

I said that I think the impact to

Google's bottom line will be 3%. Well,

it turns out that Morgan Stanley now has

a piece out that the upside would be 3%

to 2027 earnings per share. and I'm

like, "Oh my gosh, that's exactly what

we said." So, I thought that was kind of

cool. So, I'm definitely patting myself

on the back for that one because my

analysis was done same day and we're

just now hearing this from Morgan

Stanley and they came up with the same

conclusion. It just makes me feel a

little better. But then again, you know

what? We do fundamental analysis every

freaking day. Like, I better not be that

far off, you know? Like, what's the

point of doing analysis every single

day? You know, you're supposed to get

better and better over time. So, uh I

think we're doing good. Uh so, you know,

shout out to everybody obviously in the

courses who get the uh stock tab, you

get our archive of uh fundamental

analysis there. Uh but anyway, uh Q's

just continue holding on. Uh this is

exactly what we expected in the alpha

report. It makes sense like for you even

if you're not part of it. It is

something that you would expect to

continue through December 9th. And uh

don't expect anything really much out of

uh Powell tonight, but I'll be there to

cover it live. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.