LFGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!

Great news everyone. Donald Trump is

already tacoing. Now this was the escape

patch from what we heard on Friday.

Everybody's like Trump's going to taco,

right? He always tacos. He He always

That's That's what taco is after all.

Trump always chickens out. It's not like

Soo where it's like Trump sometimes

chickens out. It's always chickens out.

And that's literally what we just got in

this Truth Social post, which we'll talk

about in just a moment. As we can see

already, Bitcoin finally moving back

over not just 110, which it broke

briefly uh between yesterday and Friday,

but now back to 114. Nice recovery here.

Should lead futures to move higher once

the futures actually open at 3 p.m.

California time. In addition to that, we

should look at betting markets and then

understand, of course, what was said and

what this means. So, betting markets

were already anticipating a taco. If we

go to poly markets US tariff rate on

China by November 12th, which is just

basically 30 days out, we can see that

betting markets on the oh no, Trump's

going to increase tariffs. You plummeted

the odds that tariffs would be between

25 to 40% from 69% uh down all the way

here to a low of about 19%.

However, that quickly started fading as

people thought, "Ah, Trump's just going

to taco again." Then we started hearing

commentary that the meeting that Donald

Trump said he was going to cancel with

President Xi Xiinping is a meeting that

just has neither been confirmed as

happening or not happening which is very

different from it's cancelled. It's uh

maybe we'll talk. And then we started

seeing this go from a 19% chance up to a

50% chance. And then of course here very

recently we've now heard this latest

taco from Donald Trump on Truth Social

in addition to commentary from JD Vance.

See JD Vance this morning he had

commentary on exactly this as well. Uh

JD suggests, "Hey, we're going to be

reasonable with negotiating." And this

is all coming in response to China

starting to slam the United States just

as early as well, Sunday morning China

time, which of course is probably what,

you know, hours ago at this point. Uh

well, not probably, it is, right?

They're hours ahead of us. uh you know

they slammed the 100% tariffs as a

double standard and they started talking

about how like hey you know we just want

these basic licenses on our rare earth

controls. We're not trying to limit your

ability to get uh pro you know material

for civilian use. We're just trying to

protect our national security just like

the United States is. Meanwhile, you

guys have just removed the dimminimous

exemption on basically everything which

is hurting us. Uh, and so China is sort

of like, hey, we're trying to be

reasonable here. Now, let's be clear,

okay? It is China. So, China obviously

is establishing these licenses. So, if

there's ever like a war or a larger

conflict, they could just ratchet the

dial from you're allowed to to click

click click. You're not allowed to

export rare earths anymore. It gives

them a lot of control and registration

over where the flows are, who the buyers

are. It gives them a lot of

surveillance. So when and if they

actually need to stop the flow over our

earth, they could do it very quickly. So

understand China is being very cunning

here, okay? Like this is not, oh, you

know, China's right in this. You know,

China's playing their game too, but you

know, as they should. It's their country

to defend just like what we're trying to

do, right? This is a negotiation. But

what's wild about this is actually the

Chinese are now taking an opportunity to

slam our entire political system, which

we're going to talk about that and

Trump's taco in just a moment, what this

is going to potentially mean for stock

prices and otherwise. But I want you to

see is their argument. Now, this is the

um uh basically the propaganda wing of

the Chinese Communist Party. Uh the

Global Times. I mean, basically all

media over there is controlled by the

Chinese Communist Party, so it doesn't

really matter. But anyway, uh I want you

to see this. China doubling down. We we

do not want to try a trade war, but we

are not afraid to fight one. Willful

threats of high tariffs are not the way

to get along with China. And following

these statements, we have now seen the

taco from Donnie T. Uh which my phone

locked. So, let's unlock that. There we

go. Don't worry about China. It will all

be fine. You know, this sounds a whole

lot like Donald Trump going, you know,

don't be a panicking panicking by and

then, you know, hyphen DJT Donald Trump,

right? Uh, so don't worry about China.

It will all be fine. Highly respected

Xiinping just had a bad moment. He

doesn't want a depression for his

country and neither do I. The USA wants

to help China, not hurt it. President

DJT. See, that's the same way. He's not

doing the thank you for the attention of

this matter. It's a similar way that how

he signed off on basically buy the dip

back in April which was a fantastically

timed tweet as are or truth as are many

of Donald Trump's actions relative to

insider trades. Like let's not even get

into the fact that on Friday somebody

opened a brand new crypto wallet and

shorted the crypto market just moments

before Donald Trump made this

announcement. Let's not talk about all

the fraud and insider trading that is

ruining the institutions of American

integrity, what's left of it. Uh let's

just ignore all that for a moment and

just be grateful that it looks like we

are getting taco, which doesn't mean

there won't be tariff effects in a

lasting manner. We know that we're

really just at the beginning of the

potential impacts of tariffs. We had a

90-day pause from April, which took us

obviously through May, June, and July.

Initially in April, we thought it would

take, you know, 90 to 180 days to

actually see the impacts. But then when

you factor in all the pauses, you've

really only been at this trade war for

maybe 3 to 4 months, which really means

2026 is probably we're going when we're

going to see most of the compounding of

the actual impacts of the trade war,

which does lead to some bad calculus by

people who defend tariffs. Like I'll get

messages, I got a message from somebody,

and I feel bad for these people, but I'm

just going to speak to you, not like I'm

not a politician, so you know, I'm just

going to speak to you as like an

economist, a financial analyst, and and

a news provider.

the terrorists will hit and and the pain

will hit. It's just going to take time.

And when people send me messages, like

somebody sent me a very respectable

message. Thank you for You actually

actually texted me in our little

community, uh text platform, which uh I

can actually put that number up. But I

do read these and I try my best to

reply. Oh, here it is. But, uh that's

the number if you want. But anyway, um

they said, "Hey, Kevin, you know, I've

I've seen firsthand, I know you don't

like tariffs, and I get it, but I've

seen firsthand the destruction of like

basically what global trade has done to

small communities in America." And uh

the reality of this is totally real.

Like this is true. Yes, globalism,

global trade does negatively affect

those smaller unfortunately less

efficient uh towns compared to Chinese

manufacturers or you know what we saw

happen with truckers with NAFTA, right?

There are real issues that come from

globalism and it's why Republicans

always promote protectionism because

those smaller towns are more likely to

vote Republican anyway and so they want

to see be seen as defending that part of

America. The problem is the vast

majority of Americans benefit from

globalism in the form of deflation. The

fact that now you could get a 4K uh, you

know, 55 inch Amazon Fire TV for $399

is insane. We could never build that in

small town America. It would cost us,

you know, probably $3,000 just to make

it and it would have to sell for $4,000.

It would be insane. I mean, we're

talking about a factor of a 10

difference in pricing for solar panels,

um, keyboards, mice, computers,

hardware, chips. This is why we

manufacture so much in Taiwan. the

manufacturing is so much more advanced

and and it's unfortunate and it's not to

say that we don't want to help smaller

town America. It's just to say

economically globalism helps cause

deflation. So all of that aside, what's

important to remember in this trade war

is we are getting blasted by China for

this tariff war and it's leading Donald

Trump to walk back his aggression. Look

at what China says here. China argues

that the US unilateral actions have

dealt a heavy blow to global market

confidence, raising concerns that the

two largest economies could once again

slip into a trade war if the US claims a

see or claims to seek dialogue while

simultaneously escalating unilateral

measures and resorting to fabricated

justifications and trade bullying. It

would only deepen the trust deficit.

This is, I think, why Donald Trump's

already starting to taco. is like, "Ah,

yeah, okay. We're going to have to I was

a little too aggressive here." Of

course, he's blaming Xiinping. But Trump

was the aggressive one this weekend for

sure. Friday, uh, China's trade and

export control policies have always been

highly transparent and predictable, and

we remain open to trade applications,

products intended for military. Okay, we

already talked about this with

licensing. Uh, hypocritically criticize,

the United States hypocritically

criticizes China's normal regulatory

measures, a clear US double standard.

Uh, China says the United States or or

somebody who used to be a a former China

director at the uh NSC, the National

Security Council, so an American says

the United States is playing 2D chess

while Beijing is playing 4D chess. Uh,

and so really what you're getting is

this doubling down of China going, "Hey,

like we don't want this trade war, but

if you want to go, we'll go." And

Trump's kind of like, "Maybe maybe we

don't." Because, you know, if he doubled

down on this trade war, we'd probably

have a Black Monday. And I don't think

he wants that. And I think that's why

he's already tacoing. So the taco trade

is great for the stock market tomorrow.

Now what this is opening a door to,

which is kind of sad, but this is all

opening a door to China now literally

writing opeds. The Global Times

editorial board writing opeds about how

the US government sucks. And what

they're doing is they're saying that

we're basically playing this judo judo

match uh with our two-party system and

that every week the shutdown goes on,

we're shaving 0.1 to2% off of GDP. And

this time is like the worst shutdown

ever since 1976 where we've had more

than 20 shutdowns because now, you know,

you've got a shutdown where Donald Trump

is front and center purposefully doing

layoffs. You know, he accidentally laid

off a bunch of CDC scientists working on

like measles research and then rescended

that layoff. A that was a mistake. JD

Vance was on face this n the nation this

morning and he's like, "Uh, yeah. Um,

that was a mistake." And it's Democrat's

fault. It's Schumer's chaos. Uh, as far

as why we accidentally laid off those

people, but we are laying off others

just to, you know, keep the government

operating. But in prior shutdowns, we've

always been able to keep the government

operating and we just temporarily furlow

people. What's different this time, and

China is making fun of us for it, is

we're using the shutdown as an

opportunity to literally fire people

permanently. Uh, and so they literally

say the two-party system was originally

designed as a check and balance

mechanism, but under trends of

polarization, the system is turning into

a self-consuming loop. Multiple. So

basically, they're saying like, see,

look, the American experiment fails.

Capitalism fails. American like American

politics plus capitalism fails because

you get a two-party system and nothing

gets done and it turns into a

selfserving loop of bull crap. Multiple

factors including electoral

redistricting, money-driven politics and

a social media ecosystem have

accelerated the entrenchment of extreme

positions in the United States. I I

agree with this. Like I wholeheartedly

agree that and this is why I you know I

take a very neutral point of view in in

America. Uh and the reason I do that is

because I think vast majority of us are

very neutral. The problem is it's it's

just you're going to offend people on

the far sides. Like I'm sorry to the you

know small town person who's like oh but

tariffs protect us. They might protect

200,000 Americans but tariffs might

protect 200,000 Americans at the cost of

20 million Americans. Right? So, so this

is where you kind of have to like

balance out like what are the costs

here? Would it be better to provide

stimulus to those 200,000 Americans and

then let everybody else have lower

prices for example, right? Uh so that

those are the debates to have and I

think that's a neutral position rather

than the entrenchment of extremes. I

think China's right about that. Uh and

and they argue that basically what we

have in American politics is zero sum

thinking that dominates people's

political imagination. That's what it

is. It's well, you know, uh like

everything that hurts everybody else I'm

okay with as long as I don't get hurt.

And then as soon as you get hurt, it's

like, oh, this is this is wrong. Uh you

know, there was actually a great video

on this. I don't know that I'll be able

to find it here quickly, but uh I will

look for it. There's a video uh it is ah

here it is. Don't be a sucker, 1947.

Okay, so I I'm not going to play this

whole thing. I just encourage you to

watch it because I want to talk about

the market here. But uh it's this right

here. It's don't be a sucker 1947 clip

from anti-racist short film. And it's

really interesting because if you play

it uh what you'll find is these guys are

at a political rally and there's this

guy over here on the podium yelling

about like how, you know, hey, we got to

get the Negroes out or whatever. And

then you got, you know, a black guy in

the audience who's like, man, what the

hell, dude? This this is bull crap.

Right. Uh, and then you've got uh over

here you've got these guys talking uh

and this guy's like, "Yeah, damn right.

You know what? Like, hey, I'm a union

worker. Like, anything to that that's

going to help us." And then all of a

sudden, the politician uh the guy up on

the uh uh the podium or whatever, he

starts going and you know who else we

got to get out? Those union workers. And

then all of a sudden, the guy is like,

"Wait, what? Now he's talking about me.

This is bull crap. And then this guy

leans over and he's like, "It hits

different when he's talking about you,

doesn't it?" And it's just like,

it's so powerful. It's such a I mean,

it's from 1947, so it's like super old

school here, but it's such a powerful

message. Uh, and it's worth seeing cuz

like that's how politics works. There

are winners and losers, and wow, what a

surprise when all of a sudden a

politician wants to hurt you. You hate

the politician. And this is kind of what

China is starting to weaponize, right?

But the the big thing out of today is,

you know, Trump is going in the

direction of taco, which is great for

markets. It probably means we're going

to get a nice rebound. Now, we'll have a

full strategy set up tomorrow morning in

the meet Kevin Alpha report. So, we'll

be talking about call options. We'll be

talking volatility. Uh we'll be talking

historic volatility to see where there

are opportunities in options. So, if you

want to be part of that, remember you

can do so over at the uh Meet Kevin

membership. But uh it's it's worth

remembering that it's not just this meet

Kevin membership. Uh you could use

coupon code Schumer Siesta. Uh but uh

let's let's talk a little bit about

bonds as well and what could happen

broadly with chip stocks and otherwise

and and just set some ideas up here. Uh

quick heads up tomorrow. Also, Investing

Pro, not yet. Okay, not yet, but

tomorrow investing pro is starting their

flash sale again where you get 50% off

plus 15%. So don't don't use it yet, but

just be prepared for that. Really really

great if you're into like fundamental

analysis or even technical analysis. So

we'll have some comments on that coming

up. But um yeah, let's think about this.

So strategically, look um yields

plummeted on Friday because there was

some panic uh that we were going to get

a resumption of a trade war. The

assumption at this point uh is that the

uh futures will turn green to offset a

3.5% decline on the NASDAQ and we'll get

some kind of bounce back. The

aggressiveness on this bounceback will

probably lead the 10-year yield to rise

again. So my guess is and we'll see with

futures in a few hours, but my guess is

we'll probably see the 10 go back to

like 4.10. I don't think it'll go all

the way back to 4.15. And I think we'll

see some modest green over here. like

maybe and honestly like modest in

response to this could be like 80 bips

up on the Q's which is actually on a

normal day pretty damn good. Uh but uh

you know seeing 80 bips maybe 120 bips

on the cues totally reasonable on bounce

back here. Remember though the market is

now going to be primed for all the

catalysts that we have coming up. The

CPI catalyst the October 31st and

November 1st uh meeting potentially

between Trump uh and China. So that's

going to be catalyst. Fed meeting at the

end of the month. Are we going to get

the release of jobs data before the end

of the month? All of those things are

going to be catalysts that now the

markets like plus earnings crap like

Donald Trump's Friday tariff warning was

sort of a warning shot where you know

does it make sense to start going while

we're at all-time highs. Let's enjoy a

little bit of a recovery here but we

start taking money off the table until

we get earnings to confirm everything's

good.

My opinion is we're probably gonna have

a harder time now hitting some of these

all-time highs while people are a little

shell shocked. Yes, Taco is going to

help us go green, which is fantastic.

But we are going into that era where all

right now earnings are going to not only

this quarter, but you know, really the

forecast going forward are going to

start telling us who's really going to

be eating these tariffs. And so it's

going to take some nuance to go through

all these earnings. As usual, I'll be

covering earnings as much as I can. Uh,

and uh, if if you want, I'm considering

it. Uh, but if you want, leave a comment

down below if uh, if I should go live

for uh, earnings after the bell. I was

thinking maybe we go uh live for

earnings, cover the earnings, and then

do little summary videos. Uh, I don't

know if that's of interest to people. I

think most people like market open, but

I thought I' I'd mention that. Uh, so

this is uh, this is good. This is a good

rundown so far as far as sort of like

geopolitical news. Otherwise, you know,

so far it looks like Israel is pulling

back troops to be determined. You know,

they're saying, "Hey, we're not going to

pull back all the way unless we get all

our hostages. So, you know, we actually

got to see all the details get worked

out here, but so far so good." And you

got to give Trump credit for that, you

know. So, as much as like I like to poop

on uh politicians, you got to give Trump

credit for that upside down diplomacy he

pulled off. That was that was

impressive. And it really sends a signal

that, you know, Iran is eating bricks

right now. Uh, and I don't even know if

that's uh that's the right phrase to use

there, but anyway, this gives you a

little Sunday update. Uh, great news.

And uh, folks, uh, thank you so much for

watching. Remember, use coupon code

Schumer Siesta if you want to join. Uh,

and then of course the Me Kevin

membership. And if you want to diversify

from the wildness in the stock market,

check out the opportunities to invest

and diversify into house hack backed by

American Real Estate, great quality real

estate. We do a great job remodeling our

properties. You know, I was looking I

drove by a rental the other day and and

I'm like, what? $4,500. And I'm looking

at it, I'm like, dude, it's all like

original 1970s stuff. This is

disgusting. Like, how are you renting

this out? Uh, and you know, I'm not

going to mention names or put pictures

up because I don't want to bag on

anybody else, but let's just put it this

way. House hack doesn't operate that way

and we we provide quality products to to

our tenants. We we want to be America's

best landlord. Uh and people need

landlords. You know, I know sometimes

people are like, "Oh, but you know,

landlords are taking away a home from

another." We're not taking away homes

from anyone. We're taking empty homes

most of the time or at least a lot of

the time. Uh and we're renovating them

into a quality property that people can

rent. Like there are like people are

always going to rent. there are always

going to be like 30 to 40% of Americans

who like I need a rent because I might

only be here for a year or two years or

short term I'm not ready to buy or this

that or whatever. It's like somebody's

got to provide that service. I think

sometimes people don't understand that

but uh I think that's reasonable what

I'm saying. Uh, it's also fun to note

that uh yesterday, and I love this. Uh,

I I spent maybe I'll post some more

pictures on my IG if you want to see

this, but uh some of you have been

following me on Instagram commenting on

some of the uh real estate pictures that

we're posting. Uh, but yesterday I spent

like all day with Jack just going to

different properties, working our

renovations. Uh, and I think it's so

great because, you know, we'll go

through our renovations. Uh, and we'll

look at, hey, like, all right, here's

what we got to do. Here's the checklist

we got to do. We're bringing product.

Dude, I threw so much crap in the back

of the Cybert truck. It was crazy. Um I

I even used this rack over here to

deliver a vanity. And sometimes people

wonder, they're like, "Why are you doing

this?" So the trick is if you go order

stuff at Lowe's and you buy stuff for

like four properties at a time, you get

a much bigger discount than if you just

ship everything directly to the

properties, right? So, we're just like

loading up on stuff and then I load up

my garage at home with all the equipment

and then I just bring it. I mean, I'm

not going to do that with like toilets

or things that are like ridiculously

heavy. Like over here's an example. We

got toilets uh delivered. Uh so, you

can't do it with everything, you know,

and I'm not going to go buy like a giant

trailer. But if I could go to a store

and pick up like little junky stuff, I'm

going to do that because I need to go to

the properties to manage the renovations

anyway. You know what? My team does the

same thing when when they're doing it

versus me. You know, here's Jack and I

picking up stuff at Lowe's and we're

like, "Ah, we're missing a few exterior

light fixtures or like the lights inside

the garage, so we're going to go pick

those up." Uh, and and I love it cuz I

just put him to work and then when I put

him to work, uh, you know, I make him go

load everything and, you know, I pay him

or whatever, of course, but I figure

like, hey, like it's probably a good

experience to learn. Uh, and then of

course after that, you know, I take him

to uh to D&B as as just sort of a little

end of the day reward. Uh, we're playing

Down the Clown or Break the Plates.

Those are some of our favorites over

there. Of course, the freaking Down the

Clown machine was broken again. This is

what pisses me off about Dave and

Busters. They're spending all this money

remodeling their restaurants, but the

whole top row was broken on Down the

Clown. How am I supposed to get the

jackpot when the whole top row is

broken? It's so freaking annoying. Uh

but it's sort of classic. You know,

here's just another house hack photo of

uh you know what I like to do is when

the painters are painting the interior

of the property, we'll put out the

baseboards. So that way while they're

already doing, let's say Swiss coffee

semig gloss on the doors, they can paint

the baseboards. And the benefit of this

is when the flooring company comes, the

baseboard's already painted. I don't

have to paint them after the fact. Then

I was joking a little bit with Jack. I'm

like, "Bro, this house got a brand new

air conditioner. like we don't even have

a brand new air conditioner. And I was

teaching him a little bit about like how

furnaces works. That's the old furnace

over there. Uh and um you know, pretty

excited about that. I'll give you an

example of a kitchen over here, too.

Obviously, you know, this is just all

work in progress right here. But I think

this is beautiful. This white on white

and timeless, too, which is which is

really critical. Uh you know, work

obviously all of these are works in

progress. Uh but it's fun, you know. I

love it. I'm teaching Jack about uh the

different types of faucets. Uh when

we're going looking at properties, I

just use the meta glasses when I go

through too because they sort of become

my checklist of of things to do or

things that I want to see. We even went

through um a moldy home yesterday which

we loved uh with like they literally had

the mold contamination sign and

everything. This was it. And we just

started playing football in the back.

So, uh whatever, man. you know, like

we'll go to your we'll go to your moldy

open house. This was it. Uh I don't have

video unfortunately of the mold part,

but they uh you could see sort of like a

lot of the walls have been removed and

then they've got their contamination

uh fans going over here and it smells

pretty stinky. So, I have P100s and

stuff in the truck, too, for when we

stay in these puppies longer. But, uh I

said I wouldn't show it, but this was

pissing me off. I was looking at this uh

this rental and I'm like, "Bro, I really

I shouldn't show this picture because

it's got the house number there, but uh

you know, maybe I h whatever." But I'll

just I'll just show this. Like this is

the zooming down under the house number.

This is the the front of it. And I'm

like, "What the heck? You've got weeds,

dead plants, the grass looks like crap.

The paint job looks like crap. this is

like super ghetto looking, you know,

front over here. Like everything about

this is just like trash. And I'm like,

nah, that's just not how hack operates,

you know. We we we want we want our

tenants to like the property they live

in. Uh and and we think that actually

keeps tenants longer. For example, one

of the things we're doing is we're

actually using a different flooring now.

And so we're going to be doing a lecture

actually probably right after I film

this in the uh property management and

rental renovations course. and I'm going

to be revealing this new flooring that

we have uh in addition to like new

ceiling fans and stuff like that that

we're using. But um this flooring is

actually a little bit more expensive

than what we've been used to using

because the uh previous material that we

used, which was about a dollar cheaper

per square foot, it actually uh I don't

think the longevity is that great. After

about 3 years, we're starting to see

some buckling on, you know, some of the

edges of the plates. That's probably

just because the surface is a little

thinner. And so we'll be having a

conversation about the uh you know cost

versus benefits of that and I'll be

revealing the material that we're using

exactly uh in addition to like where to

save money and where not to save money

like for example these you know ceiling

fans. And of course I go around and I

just shake my head because then I see

little things like this that drive me

nuts. I'm like are you kidding me

electrician?

Are you kidding me? The damage to the I

was like it's fine but now I got to fix

it.

So, it's all right, you know, little

things like that. Uh, but that's my job,

you know. I also, just for giggles, I

put up a new um American flag yesterday,

which I thought was beautiful. Uh, the

uh the old one was uh very I wasn't very

tattered. You know, I tried to replace

them like every 6 months. Uh, and then

of course, while I was up there, I'm

like, you know what? May as well give

the the camera a little squeegee,

you know? You just got to get stuff

done. You got to get SH19 done. You

know, I also heard your comments

yesterday. You know, a lot of you are

like, Evan, the children on the side are

distracting. Uh, so I I won't do

children on the side anymore, unless

we're um specifically referencing the

children. But look at these little cute

children. This is all with the meta

glasses. Uh, I love this stuff, you

know. I I just think it's a great way to

connect with the children in the f like

not the biggest fan of Mark Zuck. In the

future, that'll all be different. But uh

you know in terms of options uh there'll

be so many companies to choose from. But

anyway, that gives you my little Sunday

update. I hope you enjoyed it. Uh join

the Me Kevin membership over at me.com.

Check out Houseackag over at

househag.com. And good luck tomorrow.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Papra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.