i just spent $3,500,000 shorting THIS.

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the other courses hey everyone kevin

here in this video we're going to talk

about my new three and a half million

dollar short we're also going to talk

about what i believe is happening in the

market right now why the market is

acting the way it is why it feels like

pain is coming back to this market keep

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what's happening in the market and then

we'll talk about this new uh big short

here okay so

first it's worth noting that a lot of

institutional investors in my opinion

and in the opinion of bloomberg

researchers got into

the tech rally a little bit late

they uh and and when they got in late

with a lot of money they ended up

pumping up the values for stocks like

tesla because they had missed out in my

opinion lucid rivian because they had

missed out on tesla runs they pumped up

the values for companies like end phase

or etsy or a firm these are really high

quality companies that are trading at

pretty expensive valuations there's a

reason i've stopped buying these

companies many many uh months ago well

maybe not many months ago about two

months ago we had a dip in september

right into september early october that

was a perfect time to buy people are

always like oh but kevin you can't time

the market it's like really like look at

september

it's worth looking at it again here take

a peek at it and then i want you to

compare where what the dip is that we

have now compared to september i think

it'll really help give you some

perspective so take a look at this this

was your september dip right here the

end of september dip bottomed on about 9

20 double bottomed on about october 4th

and then we took off like what we're

experiencing now is nothing i mean look

at that we've barely experienced

anything yet however

this is either going to be an inflection

point or we're going to break through

and see something where we end up

trading under the 20-day moving average

again for a few weeks as individuals are

concerned about well what they're

concerned about in this market now i'm

going to talk about exactly what the

concerns are in this market because uh

not not everyone believes that the

market could be at an inflection point

and that it might rotate to the downside

and that's okay like honestly i'd rather

it not take a look at where the selling

pressure is located it's mostly not in

the dow the dow is relatively flat up

0.11

but it's in the s p and it's especially

in the nasdaq nasdaq technologies down

1.5 today but the s p also down about

half of a percent okay cool so why is

this happening well i believe it's

because we had a lot of institutional

investors get into technology stocks

relatively late okay fine so they pushed

up valuations to do crazy highs now what

like why all of a sudden would prices be

falling for these companies what's the

problem why are we seeing a sell-off

especially after jerome powell got

renominated like we were uncertain that

if the federal reserve ends up getting a

new nomination of somebody totally

different then that would increase

market uncertainty which would could

lead to a potential market sell-off

because well we don't know how another

fed person would act right

well something very interesting is

happening and it's kind of the same

thing in reverse the market is actually

a little bit concerned that jerome

powell

is going to take longer to respond to

inflation and because he's potentially

going to take longer to respond to

inflation we're going to end up with

more inflation for longer

and while this transitory inflation

lasts longer we're starting to see the

bond market and the stock market price

in the fact that we might have to

discount future earnings of higher

valuation companies more now i'm going

to talk about my big short in just a

moment but i want to talk about the

10-year treasury look at the 10-year

treasury from when jerome powell was

re-nominated and compare it to where we

stand now so what we're going to do is

we're going to go to the 5-day because

we know jay powell was re-nominated on

monday monday was the 22nd take a look

at this 10-year treasury yields on

friday had fallen to a new low or recent

low of about

1.53

as soon as j-pal was already nominated

treasury yields jumped up to about 1.59

and they've been on a steady climb since

then heading to about 1.662

if market history gives us any guide as

to how much the market might price in

treasury yields rising and how much

longer pain could last in this market

it's worth taking a look at what we

previously had in september

october and in march through may take a

look at this

in september when we first started

having pain in the market we went from

treasury yields of about 1.27

all the way up to about 1.53 so we got

that big dip in the s p 500 dip one with

a .2

change on the 10-year treasury the pain

continued with another 0.1 change in the

treasury so we could get a whole 0.3

percent change a whole 3.3 change from

from where we started the beginning of

the week could put us somewhere in the

range of 1.72 to 1.82 which take a look

at this if we go to the big sell-off

that we had earlier in the year that led

to the pain in march april and may we

had an explosion of yields from about

1.15

all the way up to about 1.73 now that's

a lot larger of a move that's about a

point six percent move much more

substantial but we were coming off some

pretty dang low lows so instead i would

probably look at this as a little bit

more of a chartist and i would say hey

we might see yields easily pop back up

to 1.72

not necessarily to a new high of around

1.8 i certainly think sitting around

this 1.7 1.6 number is very realistic

and that's kind of the peak that we saw

in october as well uh and we're almost

there right we're at 1.66 so i what i

mean by this is i think the market still

has some room to price in pain if the 10

years run all the way up to 1.8 1.82 i

expect tech will continue to sell off

and we could see a nice little by the

dip opportunity before the end of the

year we'll see what ends up happening

because as we know markets are difficult

to predict but what do you know about my

portfolio well you know that i'm pretty

dang long about 15

of my money is not invested in the

market well with the exception of now my

big short

so we'll talk about that in just a

moment but uh

most of my money is in so about 85

percent of my money is in this market

long so that means when tesla's down

seven percent it's a painful day when

etsy and phase

affirm when these companies fall it's a

painful day but the value of the

portfolio falls

a lot and fast so i wanted to

find a way to short this market without

having to have the massive risk of

buying short-term puts and then seeing

them quickly you turn on me now don't

get me wrong i love the idea of buying

short-term puts against something like a

rivien or

a lucid i think and not financial advice

nothing in this video shall be construed

as financial advice

but i love the idea of shorting rivian

darn it i should have shorted it like 10

minutes ago because it was green

and it's just started falling

but anyway i love the idea of shorting

rivian i love the idea of shorting lucid

i love it because i think these

companies are substantially over valued

now shorts are a little expensive like

soul puts or i'm sorry purchase puts are

a little expensive on rivian a little

expensive on lucid right now uh but if

the eevee sector ends up coming to a

halt having a short position against uh

lucid and rivie in a put position

against these would be a very good idea

and actually what i might do now the

more that i think about it i might

actually increase my short and i'm

probably going to do this i'm probably

going to buy

some some options against lucid and

rivien as well but they're going to be a

lot smaller than my big short that's

because when you buy like 30 day puts or

25 day puts the value of these puts can

move very very quickly you can make a

lot of money really fast but you could

also lose a lot of money very very

quickly now to some degree if the market

in ebus rallies my tesla will take me to

the moon it's fine like i'll just have a

little bit less moon money if the market

in evs plummets i'm going to get killed

on tesla

i think lucid and rivian will fall twice

as hard as tesla that's not necessarily

the case today but in the long run i i

believe that

uh and having a short position against

them would probably be a good idea i

honestly don't know if i would go for

december or january at this point i

might pay the extra and go for a january

put but we'll see just in case you have

an end of the year kind of profit-taking

cycle

but what is my real big short

okay you ready for this let me give you

a little bit of information first

because it's going to help you kind of

understand why i'm making this bet

and i'm of course going to mention again

you should really check out the programs

on building your web link down below and

use that black friday coupon code and

then we can have a conversation about

this in our in our live streams

uh but anyway uh here's here's a stat

that you need to know at the start of

the fourth quarter hedge funds had 33

exposure to high growth and high

valuation companies which are companies

that exceed 10 times sales the start of

the fourth quarter was october and that

was really dip time and that number in

my opinion has substantially increased i

wouldn't be surprised if a lot of hedge

funds have closer to 50 exposure to high

growth and high valuation companies

remember a lot of hedge funds like to

hedge and if hedge funds start hedging

more then we'll get a less buying

pressure on technology when we have less

hedge fund buying pressure on technology

technology is more likely to full

because as people sell and there are

less buyers prices come down but in

addition to having less buying pressure

on technology because it's no longer the

sexy thing right now because everybody's

making fun of it i think hedge funds are

likely to hedge which means shorting and

potentially making similar plays to what

i'm making i just want to be

earlier

than them at doing this now i've already

shorted the market once very very

profitably and i'm doing it again today

and so i'm going to show you a lower

risk short that i'm making uh and the

reason as well that i think institutions

are the ones uh sort of at the center of

a lot of the sell-off that we have right

here

is take a look at this i'm going to pull

this up this was a

the video clip from yesterday's live

stream

and take a look at this nvidia falls

about an hour before the close and

really sells off going into the close

right let's fast forward yesterday's

live stream look at that it just kind of

keeps falling into the clothes and look

at that volume that's not retail volume

roller coasting these stocks down this

is end phase that volume at the close

that's institutional volume in my

opinion i can't know for sure but that's

usually when institutions close and when

they hedge towards the end of the day so

you get these roller coaster sell-offs

but it wasn't just an nvidia or an face

it was in neo it was in jp morgan which

implies index selling or index hedging

apple also index shorting index hedging

look at those falls into the close here

folks

google paypal net these guys were

selling off into the close

very typical institutional sell-off

period so i think it's possible that

fear is going to return to these

institutions and we're going to have a

little bit more pain longer

for for a lot of these different

companies so what do i want to do to

short the market where i'm not going to

get rich really quick but i hopefully

also won't get killed really quickly

right

and that's that's important because

with a short position again you get puts

you get destroyed you could get

destroyed very very very quickly so it's

high risk well there's a new product

that came out i'm not sponsored by them

but i am invested in their product and

it's called s

arc and that stands for short arc

short arc is up 14 since they launched a

couple weeks ago

they use swaps to basically short the

underlying securities in arc invest and

so the way this works is if arc invest

goes up

this goes down if arc invest goes down

this goes up now

unfortunately at the time of this

recording

arc kind of has been going straight down

all day

but we're having a little bit of a push

up here right now which this would just

be so much more beautiful if i were

recording this while it was going down

but that's okay it doesn't matter so

much this is arc k and so as arc k is

going up we're going to expect s arc to

go down so let's go on over to s arc

here it is it's up 4.5 today

and there you go it's showing a little

bit of a rotation to the downside

now

i have

about one actually do i have five

hundred oh sorry i have 100 000 shares

of s arc my plan is to stay in this

position very very

briefly

like i don't want to be in this for the

long term i don't want to short cafe

short the market for the long term this

to me is probably a play that i'm

interested in making for the next couple

weeks and that's specifically because

i'm looking for a dip in the market if

this market sell-off reverses and stocks

start rallying again kind of like how

the market responded in a weird way this

morning and we get a little bit of a

rally again this morning then this isn't

going to do too well and i'll probably

close my position i expect my downside

risk is maybe 10

because it's not like a leveraged it's

not like an option if if i see you know

trends changing treasury yields falling

tech going back up i could easily step

out of this position small hedge

but the more my technology stocks sell

off the more i'm bleeding and i have in

my opinion a relatively cheap insurance

policy against at least a portion of my

portfolio against about 12 percent of

the portfolio

if uh if if arc and tech continue to

sell off this should be a tool for

giving me more money in a dip and i

think that's cool is that if i can have

money not just in cash on the side but

some of it in an s arc where it's

relatively low risk i'm not going to

lose a lot of money in my opinion no

guarantees like i'm not a financial

advisor i can't tell you this is low

risk but what i believe is potentially

lower risk certainly compared to options

right

uh if uh if you know this this ends up

if the market ends up crashing uh and

and tesla sells off 20 30 percent arc

invest sells off 20 or whatever cool i'm

gonna have 20 more money to go buy the

dip if the market rallies great i'm

gonna be making a killian killing on my

tech stocks and uh here on my s arc

position i'm gonna lose a little bit uh

you know 10 15 whatever but i'll

probably close that position as soon as

i see kind of a u-turn in the market uh

i watch the market pretty regularly and

of course once i cycle out of this i'll

i'll definitely be um as always sending

an alert to everybody in the stocks and

psychology of money group uh and so

really keep it the cool thing is what

you really just have to do is watch what

our k does because s arc is going to do

the opposite we're seeing a little bit

of potential by the dipping uh right now

but then again we saw that throughout

the day and then we ended up go pulling

back to lowe's so obviously on the

minute candle sticks you're going to

have

you're going to have some pain you look

at the hour candle stick or the day

candle stick on arc look at this we've

really kind of just started selling off

here you it makes you wonder if we're

going to get back down to mellows i

wouldn't be surprised if we do so maybe

another 10 drawdown

no guarantees though generally i'm long

in this market i don't like to short the

market

so there you have it thank you so much

for watching this video check out the

programs i'm building your wealth down

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new course as well alright folks

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