What ELON MUSK **JUST** Said! Recession & Cancelling Twitter!?

hey everyone we kevin here i've got a

full report here on what elon musk just

said at the all-in podcast we had about

90 minutes hearing from elon musk so i'm

going to go through everything we're

going to start with twitter then we're

going to talk about the recession we're

going to talk a little bit about tesla

not all necessarily in this order we'll

also talk about potentially just

creating uh

a replacement platform for twitter so

we'll talk about that uh some of these

things might be a little bit out of

order but we're going to go in the way

that elon musk spoke so it's going to be

in elon order all right here we go right

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kevin's kevin's got more products well

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more all right let's get into it so

number one twitter uh elon musk starts

off by talking about how right now he's

debating the number of bots that twitter

has he says currently there's just no

way to know the number of bots it's

unknowable to the human soul that you

need some like witchcraft or alchemy

alchemy to basically figure out how many

bots there are and then he kind of

rhetorically jokes have you tried uh and

so he mentions how we could have one

person who could authorize a thousand

different accounts and so that what we

really need on twitter is real people

instead of one thousand by one just one

to one because it's not like you're

gonna sell one toaster to a thousand

bots you'd sell it to one person and

that one person represents a thousand

that's it's disproportionate but it's

also potentially disproportionate for

the uh political implications that all

of a sudden if politicians who are

leaning a certain way have tons of bot

farms supporting them you're really

squeezing out free speech by flooding it

with supportive or anti-speech towards

particular politicians so that you've

really got such a massive problem with

bots and elon musk suggests look it's

quite ridiculous like this is not like

splitting the atom we should be able to

solve this quite easily just like it

should be easy for twitter to tell us

how many bots there are so elon musk

said it quote seems beyond unreasonable

for twitter to claim that any that the

number of real humans are at over 95

percent he says does anyone actually

have that experience yes rhetorically

and the audience sort of erupted into

laughter there he believes that they're

probably four to five times as many bots

as twitter has actually disclosed in

their public filings and this is kind of

suggesting that twitter's revenue could

potentially be 20 less valuable

therefore a 20 discount consider this at

54 dollars roughly to make math easy

would be somewhere here on the fly at

what uh 10

and 40 cents right so that's that's

quite substantial these are things to to

keep in mind when we're considering this

so uh then we've got actually that's

what is that ten percent that's five

dollars and forty cents times two no

that'd be more that'd be eleven dollars

and sixty cents see math on the fly uh

anyway that's a lot right but twitter's

obviously fallen substantially more than

that already uh but that's because of

the likelihood of the deal not happening

if twitter comes out and says yeah

you're right we've actually got this

many bots which they won't do imagine

how many shareholder lawsuits they'd

face that basically their revenue has

been overestimated by 20 it'd be

ridiculous but anyway uh elon musk

sort of and and i think i might have an

answer for this one i'm not trying to

say i have the answer to everything but

he argues that why is it that i have the

most liked tweet in the world and it's

the tweet that

uh has 4.7 million likes and it's the

tweet that says next i'm buying

coca-cola to put the cocaine back in

elon said obviously the public really

wants this and so we should go back to

coca-cola's roots he's obviously joking

here but he says how can a tweet like

this

represent only two to two and a half

percent of the entire user base of

twitter and so this is where elon musk

challenges you know really like it

should have a higher like ratio and the

folks up on stage from the all-in

podcast they're like yeah i mean well

like why is it that you have maybe a

billion people who watch youtube videos

and the most popular youtube videos have

tens of billions of views and i actually

think there could be a potential reason

for that see

only about five to ten percent of people

who are actually viewers actually click

the like or dislike button on a video

but still watch it right so there's

gonna be a difference between like

clicking on video and watching it which

you don't really get you kind of get

like an impression metric on twitter

it's like well did somebody really read

it or did they were they scrolling they

looked away and then they went back to

scrolling right so it's harder to

measure those sorts of

impressions and then how many people

actually care to press the like button

maybe it's only one percent of you

nobody really knows twitter's supposed

to know but apparently they don't and so

all this uncertainty is really pissing

elon musk off he talks about how we

should have that open source algorithm

and that really he talks about how

ultimately

he needs the data and the more questions

he asks the more concerned he gets that

was a quote from him the more questions

he asks the more concerned he gets and

then he kind of responds to this idea

that he's like trying to pull a right

wing take over here because that's how

the

far left is kind of characterizing this

deal and he's like i

might have never repo voted republican

in my life like this is not a right-wing

takeover it's more of a what he calls a

moderate takeover uh and so you know

this is where he talks about bots

influencing public opinions believes

that there are problems on both sides

democrat republican right democratic

side you've got issues with unions sort

of being a monopoly right side

corporations and religion and uh and

then he talks about also like how do we

measure ads if ads are impression based

and bots are creating a lot of

impressions how is that fair to

companies that are trying to promote

their brands now i'm a big fan of using

different metrics to evaluate how good

ads are those are going to either be

actual product conversions or if you're

doing a brand campaign people usually do

sentiment surveys or recurring customers

are you losing your recurring customers

or are you getting more recurring

customers because of that brand loyalty

usually you can measure these things

quarter to quarter with seasonal

adjustments by knowing when you've

started your campaign for a certain

advertising effort right these are ways

companies can evaluate roi but yeah i

get obviously like if twitter's giving

you here's how many people saw your your

stuff well maybe there's an impressions

mismatch there so i get that

then elon musk was asked hey how many

companies are really in tesla and he's

like well we do a lot in fact uh you

know he says gm and ford actually don't

do that much big diss to them he's like

they don't do sales they don't do

service maybe they make their engines

but they use suppliers for most things

then he says we do everything we do

almost everything we do sales we do

service we have the largest network of

superchargers by far the most uh largest

large network of superchargers and the

most advanced we make the battery packs

the electronics the drive unit we make

all of these we make the gpus the pace

we need to move is substantially faster

than the pace that existing supply

chains can actually move so that's why

we're internalizing so much of this and

doing this ourselves we make the

software we make the software that

controls the car the charging

infrastructure the battery management

system the screens it's all by tesla's

tesla's operating system and of course

now they're working on the advanced

real-world ai in-house from scratch fsd

so on and so forth so he's really making

this contrast there and this isn't even

to touch on yet the insurance industry

which is very inefficient elon says why

is it that you have to pay 30 40 percent

of your payment on let's say a lease for

a car for insurance and then not get

rewarded for driving better it says if

you're 20 years old you get destroyed

for being 20 uh and uh you know getting

insurance just because you're 20. and

statistically uh 20 year olds drive less

bad but if you're a good driver or

you're incentivized to drive well

because you're watching your safety

score and in real time you're getting a

lower insurance premium well now not

only do we promote safer driving but we

can also give cheaper insurance to the

people who are less of a risk

i definitely drive safer with my safety

score i pay a lot of attention to my

safety score it's 100. uh but when i get

in a car like a rental car and i don't

have a safety score

let's go

anyway uh will the twitter deal close

well this is where he this is the sort

of big question here this is where he

says it depends he's waiting for a

logical explanation on the spam accounts

he says that twitter is refusing to tell

him that they claim it's a complex

methodology that can only be understood

by few it's like the definition of

arcane right there so uh this is where

he's asked well could the deal be done

at a lower price and he responds not out

of the question now he doesn't really

imply that he's negotiating but the

people asking the question on stage from

the allen podcast they imply like well i

mean this sounds like it could be a good

opportunity for you to negotiate anyway

elon makes this analogy goes look if i'm

the buyer of a house which strikes home

obviously as a real estate broker uh if

i'm the buyer of a house he says and i'm

told the house is five percent termites

but it's actually 90 termites then the

house is worth less to me you're not

actually buying a house you're buying a

termite in that example i thought that

was pretty fun anyway uh you know then

we briefly touched on this idea maybe of

creating a new app maybe one that could

handle payments and elon talks about how

ridiculous it is that during the

stimulus check time we're still mailing

checks when paypal's been around for

like 20 years instant payments much

faster than mailing checks around uh and

so a little bit of this talk about

starting over and just making something

new especially with all the attention

from engineers elon's now attracted how

we could recruit the best engineers and

elon says look quote my default

inclination is to start things from

scratch spacex started from scratch

tesla started with essentially from

scratch with like five people and uh and

really

yeah there is this potential of just

starting from scratch and so obviously

twitter fell like you know it went from

like negative five percent on the day to

like negative eight percent on the day

which was pretty wild anyway now i got

security looking at me like i'm a freak

anyway so then we've got spacex uh and

the goal with spacex is to make life

multiplanatory uh planetary and i

thought this was funny he goes if we

find aliens i'll definitely tell you if

we find them right and then he goes if

we find aliens spacex would probably get

a lot more revenue

this is also kind of funny then he talks

a little bit about how we can build

satellites on the moon or in remote

locations or bigger telescopes to kind

of see the world a little bit better uh

chamath asks hey well is there really

enough profit in these or do you need

government support and he goes look what

we really need is sure government

support would help it's going to be very

expensive but you know what if we get to

world war iii and then we break the

opportunity for us to go multi-planetary

there's this big filter of life and it's

being able to get to another

uh world and be able to connect the two

and then create a self-sustaining

civilization in another area and so

we're not sure we're able to to do that

but that's obviously the goal especially

when we have such a low birth rate that

we have right now uh you know he's like

you kind of joked like people are

worried about having too many babies

being bad for the environment and it's

like what no not at all the environment

could sustain maybe twice as many humans

as exists now on top of that he also

argues that hey you know we're we're in

this place

where some people go to him and go like

oh i don't want to bring a child into

this world and he's like um lady have

you read history

anyway uh so then he talks a little bit

about california and this was rough he

says california has gone from the land

of opportunity to the land of taxes over

regulation and litigation this is not a

good situation he says it took giga

taxes 18 months to be built

three-fourths uh three to four times the

size of the pentagon and he says in

california if we're trying to build this

in california i'd still be waiting for

permits yeah which is kind of sad but

also quite true it's pretty ridiculous

in california so uh he says that uh

the people have to change to want this

though there has to be an above zero

chance that a republican wins because

really what you have right now in

california is a one-party state and he

kind of alluded to china here he says

even if you held a gun to gavin newsom's

head to build a tesla factory he

couldn't do it too many litigators too

much regulation and that's why people

are leaving uh california then uh he

talks about recessions not necessarily

being a bad thing i've actually talked

about this a lot during the pandemic i

talked about how like you want to pick

companies that are going to get much

more efficient from recessions this is

something that i've regularly done now

that doesn't mean i'm perfect with all

my picks but still up and so the picks

that i like to pick are companies that

when they do lay people off they use

that as an opportunity

to keep the best possible talent and see

elon talks about this as well he says in

a boom everybody gets money like fools

get money and really as a result of this

you get a misallocation of capital you

get people doing things that they don't

they don't really need it for and so a

recession is kind of like an economic

enema which is you know like when you

clean out you know the place where the

sun don't shine uh and i mean if you

think about it you look at carvana they

just laid off 1200 people you've got uh

robin hood they just laid off nine

percent of their sales force uber's like

we're gonna freeze hiring amazon's like

crap we over hired yeah because during a

boom time people spend money like crazy

and they don't realize that good times

do end this is one of the reasons that

oh you know i was gonna buy a plane and

i'm like well crap there's a chance we

go into a recession next year and i'm

not gonna be caught dead spending money

on on an asset that's gonna potentially

lose half of its value when people start

tightening their belts again and then

you're screwed and you go bankrupt

because you overextended right so you

have to be as hard as it is sometimes

like you pay your taxes and you you

protect the base you don't want to get

screwed being caught all in on margin

you don't want to get screwed being

caught in really speculative deals and

being all in on speculation really

dangerous so elon musk says we probably

are in a recession and that things could

likely get worse and uh that things

could get worse for another 12 to 18

months this by the way in the q a

session afterwards uh i asked the all-in

podcast folks about this and and

chemotherapy a couple of them responded

and they believe that we're probably

going to see pain for you know

potentially through 2024 or maybe even

2025 that this is like it's going to

take a while and then you kind of look

back to the dot-com bubble you know that

took us from 2000 to 2003 to find bottom

so you know personally i think there's

there's quite a good chance uh higher

likelihood than not that markets find

bottom before that

and and teeter above them but this

consistent bleed i don't know how much

further can we go we'll see but anyway

uh elon musk uh talks about immigration

that how anybody who wants to work hard

should be able to work in the united

states is very similar to the argument i

had when i ran for governor i'm like

what like if somebody wants to work here

really hard and they wave away all their

benefits why why don't we let them in

like why is it so hard for me to hire

somebody from another country i have to

go through you know two years of

applications and they have to have a phd

or something like what if i just have

like somebody that i know in ukraine

who's like a really really good worker

and they will do anything for a job here

and then i could supply everything for

them insurance housing pay everything

like they would be contributing to our

gdp why are we not allowing that it's

politics sucks anyway uh then elon musk

says look the obvious reason for

inflation is the government printed a

zillion more dollars than it has and uh

look velocity of money held constant you

get inflation velocity of money has come

down but we still printed substantially

more than that

so then he talks a little bit about

about china and really the big takeaway

from this was that he says the folks in

china have a massive huge work ethic and

when he was talked about

the the sort of difference between

americans and china chinese he said look

americans we got to step up our game

that tesla's got a very strong work

ethic individuals at tesla do that great

company but

he says quote the work ethic in china is

exceeded on balance by uh the tesla

china team in other words like the work

ethic in the u.s is exceeded by the

tesla china team on average and he says

that this doesn't mean that there aren't

hard-working individuals at tesla in

america he's just sort of calling it

like it is then uh he uh you know we

briefly circle back to some closing

remarks but then elon has to take off so

that's literally everything elon just

said and remember

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