i was wrong

well I was wrong I thought CPI would

come in at 2.2 and as we knew no no uh

we got 3.3 and this has uh it wasn't

even close Okay the core CPI number as

we saw this morning as we covered it uh

instead of coming in at 0. 25 came in at

31 and it's hot so a lot of people are

worried why what the heck happened well

we know obviously from the course member

live streams that goodness gracious most

companies are not raising a price if

anything they are fighting to lower

prices even just a KB Homes analysis

that we did this morning WD40 we have

more to do uh tomorrow like every single

company we're looking at it's price

decreases or stable prices but folks the

numbers that we got came from well as

you've already seen air fairs motor

vehicle insurance medical care services

and Recreation as well as used cars had

it not been for used cars we would have

actually turned negative on inflation

but what matters now is not the past

what matters now is going forward and uh

clearly we're now going to expect a lot

of bearish inflationary talk as usual

and as you would expect including one

piece here from Simon white who makes

some interesting arguments he argues

that inflation can structurally remain

higher due to high fiscal spending

basically price going to go well cuz

government's still spending money bro

China might end up printing a little too

much money causing a little bit of a

ramp up in China again and that could

actually start exporting inflation to

the United States as opposed to the

deflation that we're getting now uh and

of course there are these risks that

Supply chains get tighter again just

like what we're seeing in the Red Sea

although we've created so much of an

additional supply for Supply chains to

be pretty dang loose the rubber band is

pretty dang loose you could take uh

quite a little chunk out uh of Supply

chains and frankly still have plenty

plenty of room for for people to move

their things around but anyway point of

this long and short of all of it is what

does this mean going forward in my

opinion and the market does not agree

with me at all in my opinion the March

rate cut probably not going to happen

now we have two more cpis between now in

March next fed meeting is on the 31st uh

markets still pricing in a

68.7% chance of a rate cut in March I

don't get it that I feel like that

should have plummeted after today's CPI

report some folks are arguing hey well

the trend of inflation is still down and

that's true I mean that that's very very

true me you look at uh Nick T's charts

here yes the trend is down that's great

it's fine and yes housing is still going

to roll over yes all of those things are

true I'm not here

flip-flopping but what I am going to say

which this might just be an unsexy

warning but uh it is it is what I

believe I

believe nothing from today's report says

we need to de devate from the course

right staying the course here interest

rate sensitive stocks for the longer run

uh in an environment where interest

rates are likely to Trend down the

warning and the risk

is it's probably going to take a little

longer than we expected now that's okay

I I think the earliest people really

thought rate Cuts were coming was March

I personally think that's going to be

more like May uh but who knows you know

we got two more CPI reports between now

and then so so those will make the final

decision uh and think jpow on the 31st

of January this month which is when we

have an expiration for the prices uh for

the courses on building weth I think

link down below me kevin.com I think

that is when you actually see uh the

fed's punt so I kind of think this

month's going to be a little boring

we've got earnings that leads a lot of

people to be nervous so you got to get

through earnings you're going to have to

get through the jpow punt not the jpow

put punt like literally kicking the can

down the road and we got to sit here and

go I guess those trades are are just

going to have to take a little longer to

play which is fine again my POV

portfolio that I've positioned is one

that is balanced between chips and

interest rate sensitive the chips are

freaking killing it that's doing great

interest rate sensitive not doing too

hot it's okay it it did fine on a year

you know a year-over-year basis it's

fine they're way up you know the Tesla's

the end phase or well end phase isn't uh

Tesla is uh but you know it's it's

starting to fall a little bit and N

phase has had a rough last year uh so my

take though is that all of the data that

I'm reading all of the reactions I'm

reading are telling us that yes yes more

patience and quite frankly a report like

today is going to lead a lot of people

to come out with reports explaining

exactly why inflation is going to

resurge just like the 1970s so

unfortunately you're kind of just going

to have to buckle up and look at the

data look at all the perspectives and go

okay do we think this is actually going

to be a real concern China the Red Sea

fiscal spending fiscal spending by the

way I think is one of the reasons we

haven't actually gone into a recession

because the government just keeps

printing money except for the chip

sector not for us this time anyway this

is just a short little update I think

it's nothing critical has changed here

course stays the same it's just going to

take a little longer to play out that's

my take thanks so much and uh good luck

trading out there why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little adver in in SE

go congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take