powell is about to f**k us

Markets are selling off and a lot of

people are concerned about that 15.4%

chance that Jerome Powell is not going

to cut in September. In this video,

we've got to analyze what could

potentially happen if JPOW doesn't cut.

Why would he not cut? And what are

markets concerned about? Did Mick T just

tell us something that Jerome Powell

might be paying close attention to?

Yes, we might actually in fact start

there because Nick T retweeted this

analysis uh from pricinglab.org.

This analysis indicates that imported

goods now cost 5% more and domestic

goods now cost 3% more than pre-tariff

trends predicted that they would. In

other words, these were the trends of

prices right here overall on domestic

and imported goods and here they are

afterwards. So in other words, we

thought that prices would continue to go

down and then of course Donnie Te's

tariff moves have unfortunately shaken

the boots of tariff expectations. Now,

this creates some potential issues

because these are going to be data sets

that Jerome Powell pays attention to.

Jerome Powell is the kind of person who

likes looking at data, at least so he

tells us. He also likes riding his bike

and u talking quietly at restaurants.

Okay, these are just small little

snippets of things that we've heard over

the last few years from. But that said,

take a look at this. This is a pricing

data set based on various countries and

sort of the pricing of goods uh we

receive from various countries. You can

see Canada's yellow, Mexico is green, uh

China is red and the US is uh blue here.

You can see before Donald Trump really

started talking about tariffs, so before

March of 2025, we saw a very consistent

downtrend. Uh, I added these blue or

purple bars right here just to give us

what looks like maybe a a range of best

fit for the downtrend that we've seen in

pricing. That downtrend that we've seen

in pricing has really been robbed by

tariffs. Now, if we average out the last

6 months on CPI levels like Donald Trump

does, and if we include shelter prices,

which really have very little to do with

uh with with tariffs, sure, it looks

like inflation's only running at a 1.9%

annualized rate with Donald Trump's

cherrypicked math. But the reality is

when we actually look at imported goods,

prices are skyrocketing. Not only are

prices for imported goods skyrocketing,

but we aren't even seeing the full

impacts of these yet. That's the greater

concern that Jerome Powell is going to

pay attention to. Because even though

these make up a smaller portion of

overall prices, they change consumer and

investor psychology, which could be why

we're seeing markets sell off now as we

potentially price in the risk that

Jerome Powell does not cut in September.

Take a peek at this conclusion from the

pricinglab.org

tariff impact piece.

Tariff announcements led to rapid though

still moderate price increases. A rise

of about 4% since early March or 5%

relative to the trend that we were on.

Chinese goods experienced the largest

and most persistent price pressures

because they account for 30% of all

goods that we tend to import in sort of

an import basket. When we look at these,

retail prices began rising within one

week of the March 4th tariff

announcement.

Since then, prices have been consistent

and gradual, and we have seen a

sustained pass through of price

increases due to tariff announcements.

However, these price increases may not

yet be fully recognized. Why? Because

people companies front-loaded

inventories. A lot of consumers

front-loaded purchase purchases before

tariffs. One of the reasons why we

believe we've seen very strong retail

sales data or even auto sales data is

because a lot of people got motivated to

buy before the tariffs arrive. It was

the best selling moment. It was really

like I mean frankly coupon code Jhole

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that's Jackson holding it. But anyway,

look at this. When you have this uh this

comment right here, this is going to be

something JPAL reads. This uncertainty

likely discourages firms from making

immediate or full pricing adjustments

contributing to gradual or even uneven

pass through of inflation from tariffs.

What you really have is a situation

where companies might end up raising

prices even more now that we have

certainty on tariffs and companies that

were waiting with their pre-tariff sales

and inventory sell through might now

actually have to fully raise prices

because of tariffs because now the

tariffs are here to stay and now the

real pricing impact is coming.

Unfortunately, this is the kind of stuff

that Jerome Powell is going to be

reading. And these are the issues that

are going to keep Jerome Powell

potentially on a hawkish point of view.

And this is where we can take a peek at

the sheet that I put together. What if

Powell doesn't cut? First, we have a few

catalysts that are going to help us

determine the directionality of Jerome

Powell's actions. So between now and the

Federal Reserve cutting day, uh

hopefully cutting day of September 17th,

we do have Jhole on August 22nd, that's

in just 3 days, Jerome Pal's opening

speech will be at 7:00 a.m. Remember,

this is also coupon expiration day, uh

which means a big price increase. Uh

just like every previous time we've had

a coupon expiration, the price goes up.

PCE comes out on the 29th. This will be

less interesting because uh this is

going to be a um sort of a July

recalculation of CPI and PPI and so it's

less interesting. This one doesn't

matter much at all. I'll italicize it

because it just doesn't matter much.

We'll have the ADP jobs report on the

fourth which matters less than the jobs

report on the fifth. All times here at

Pacific, we are looking for an estimate

of 88,000 jobs. Uh the current 3month

average is 33,000. And if we end up

where we get some kind of like, you

know, red flag basically where we get

some kind of uh 100k plus read, if we

get a 100k plus read, we will probably

guarantee no rate cuts because it will

show Powell that this 33,000

3month average job gains trend of the

May, June, July period uh is potentially

over. And this would be good

economically because it would mean maybe

we're not going into a recession. Uh

because right now, you know, if we

remove health care jobs from our last 3

months of job reads, we would be

negative jobs May, negative jobs June,

and we would have only had 15,000 jobs

in Julyish because we had 73,000 jobs

total 55,000 of which were healthcare.

So 18,000 jobs outside of healthcare. So

outside of healthcare, we're really not

growing. This is why we really need a

rebound jobs report on 95. This is

probably going to be the most critical

for Powell because if we get a weak jobs

report, maybe then we have a chance of a

rate cut, but not with these

inflationary numbers. You know, the only

way you get that rate cut is if you get

a really damaging jobs report. So you

probably, you know, to confirm a rate

cut,

uh, you you want to see under 50k jobs.

Now remember, keep this in mind, rate

cuts are not supportive to the stock

market. Money printing is.

A weak economy burps earnings at

companies and stocks go down. And this

is, I think, what the stock market is is

slowly pricing in a little bit today

with uh with some of the pain we're

seeing. AMD down 4%, Nvidia down 2%,

you've got the Q's down 1%, Tesla was

green by a percent, now it's red by a

percent. You got Palanteer selling off

6%, Figma's down 8%, bullish on after

the IPO down 8%, Circle down 4%, Meta

down 2%, Hood's down 4%. We got

Ethereum's down, Bitcoin's down 113. you

know this maybe just a healthy pullback

obviously but these are the reasons

right so PPI on the 10th CPI on the 11th

no estimates yet for these these will

obviously be important as well but we

expect these to be hot expect this to be

hot uh and then also expect CPI to be

hot so really this is the most important

for you you want to see jobs if you want

rate cuts you need to see jobs coming

weak but then that's also bad for

recession jobs coming strong, then

you're looking at, you know, potentially

rate hikes, right? Strong jobs could

signal rate hikes. And Powell could

actually set that up. Powell could set

up rate hikes uh this Friday if jobs

strong and inflation strong. We already

know that inflation is strong. So, if we

already know that inflation is strong,

then we have this continued risk that

you could uh uh see see rate hikes get

talked about on Friday. Right now, the

odds of no cut are 15.4%. So, let me be

clear about that. That means you have an

84.6%

chance of a rate cut in September. All

of that has to be unwound

if we end up getting a hot Jobs report

and J Palocks to us.

If you get no cut, my assumption is that

we are going to see the 210 spread

skyrocket. You probably end up seeing 4%

on the 2-year Treasury, 5% on the

10-year Treasury. Now, why does that

matter? It matters because as a warning

sign, not of the bottom. This is not a

bottom indicator. It is a top indicator.

Okay? At the end of 2007, beginning of

2008, you had a skyrocketing of the

spread between the two and the 10

treasury from 50 basis points to 100

basis points and then 170 basis points.

That was your early warning sign that we

were in recession.

Right now, we sit at about 56 57 basis

points. Okay. The same pattern happened

in COVID. The same pattern happened in

the 2000 bubble and the same thing

happened in the 1990s recession. The

only time we didn't see it happen or the

only time we didn't see a spike was

right here in the 1995 soft landing.

Every spike, early9s spike, dot spike,

2008 spike, the uh COVID bubble spike,

every single one of the spikes meant

recession, recession session. This is

why when we're sitting at the level we

sit at right now, I say that 50 basis

points is shock territory because once

we start escaping this soft landing

territory right here or 50 to 60 basis

points, once we escape this area, we

remove the odds of a soft landing and

we're basically being told by the bond

market that a recession is imminent.

Okay, this happened again during COVID,

during the 2000 bubble, during the '90s

recession. It doesn't call a bottom for

you. It's a warning of the start of the

recession, not the bottom. The bottom is

when the money printer turns on usually,

although it might be a little harder

with AI now for the money printer to

actually get those jobs to come back,

which is another unique risk factor, but

topic for a different video.

Now, if Powell sets up for a rate hike,

it would be a middle finger for Trump.

Honestly,

Powell would probably get some cheer out

of giving uh Trump the finger. Just

saying. I like I know he's not supposed

to be political, but I think there's a

chance he would get a little bit of

excitement out of like having a

justified reason for giving Trump the

middle finger.

I also think that if Powell sets up for

a rate hike or no rate cut, he is

basically signaling that the inflation

risks are far from over and that the Fed

has started to freak out over inflation

risks. Now, some people said, "Hey, but

Kevin, last year the Fed cut 50 and

rates rose 100 basis points." This is

correct. This is because we had weak

labor markets and the market thought

that the Fed was responding

appropriately. We triggered the SO rule.

We had bad unemployment reads. Labor

market looked very weak.

Fortunately, through, you know, whether

it was Trump enthusiasm or the impact of

the rate cuts, we ended up rebounding.

This year, a no cut would probably

signal rates up because it would signal

that the labor market is strong enough

to signal no cut and we have actual

risks of stagflation because of the

underlying inflation we're seeing from

tariffs. which it'll take a while for

Donald Trump. I don't think he'll ever

wake up to realizing that what he does

is inflationary, but whatever.

This then increases the odds that we

have to unpric rate cuts and price in

rate hikes.

In my opinion, also we would see a sell

off in stocks, which could be a modest

pullback, maybe a buy the dip

opportunity. you know, we're going to

have our our regardless over the next,

you know, six to eight weeks, we're

going to have our 10 stocks to buy for

the next decade buys. Like I'm going to

be buying them as well and we'll be

announcing those just to course members

and the alpha report. Uh and then of

course when when my trades go in and as

I'm buying them, you'll be getting

those. So make sure you're part of that

alpha report. Remember, you pay once,

you get lifetime access. You could be

here five years and see how that that

list is going or or in 10 years when you

want the the next list. I mean, there'll

probably be another list before then.

We'll see. But, uh, we'll still be

holding our 10-year basket from now. So,

uh, markets are under the impression

that rate cuts are supportive of stocks,

right? Rate cuts usually equal slow

down, meaning down EPS, right, which is

bad. So, that's why you'd get some sell

down here. What makes it more likely of

no cut? Okay, we kind of already talked

about that with numbers. Uh, and then

somebody mentioned, I think it's Scott,

our good buddy Scott in the chat here

mentioned that government layoffs are

coming. these technically that 200,000

level of government job layoffs take

place in September which means we might

not actually see these numbers show up

on the unemployment rules until the

October or November releases for the

September or October data sets. So we

actually still have a couple months

before we might see some of that data in

my opinion. Though yes, that is a

negative uh factor coming. And then of

course longer term concern uh would be

that once we go into a recession job

losses due to AI won't get rehired and

that we you know this is my opinion that

we're going to see the most money

printing ever in the history of money

printing because it's going to take so

much more to actually get us out of the

pooper duper this time around. And this

isn't a way of saying this time is

different. It's actually saying this

time is exactly the same because every

single time we go into like some kind of

crappy recession era or whatever, we

money print our way out, right? We we

have to money print to get the hell out

of the disaster. The

reality ends up being that as we money

print our way out, AI ends up being such

an issue that and it's so hard to gain

jobs that what ends up happening? We end

up in a situation where the Fed has to

print way more than we ever have before

in the history of money printing. And

then what? Well, then we're honestly we

have the highest deficits ever. Asset

owners like specifically I think real

estate owners will be really really

happy. You know, I don't say that to to

Schill house hack. That's a plan I've

been making for you know 3 years because

we knew at some point rates would

normalize. But you go into a recession,

the people who are going to win are

going to be people who own assets that

can take advantage of leveraging at zero

rates. That's the opposite of having

leveraged ETFs or margin in your

brokerage account. I'm talking about

actual houses that you could break the

piggy bank on, right? So imagine this is

a piggy bank. Okay, maybe that's a bad

piggy bank. You know, imagine you have a

piggy bank and it's, you know, $75

million of assets. That's what house

hack is. Okay. And and and that's on

top. This is not even considering the AI

that we're developing, which like we're

making some really sick progress. What I

saw in the last 24 hours is really

really exciting for our AI at Houseack.

That's not even priced into our

valuation. I mean, then, you know, read

read the paperwork at house hack.com.

Read the solicitation. This video is not

a solicitation. Just an optimistic CEO

here. I could be wrong about everything.

There's risk with every investment. But

imagine you have a $75 million piggy

bank outside of AI and then you know

markets go to crap, margin standards

tighten up, leveraged ETFs implode. You

can't have leverage in the stock market.

Where do you go to get leverage when

interest rates are zero? Well, what

about a bunch of real assets that have

no debt on them that you're not trying

to sell to somebody? You just go to a

bank and you're like, "Hey, we have no

bank debt on these properties. Can we

break the piggy bank on $75 million?"

And they're like, "Sure. yours is a

quarter of a billion dollars. And we're

like, "Yeah, we'll take a quarter of a

billion dollars. Thank you very much."

And the way you factor that is you do uh

you know 75 divid represents uh or or

sorry, $75 million represents

three, right? And what happens when you

do 75 million represents.3

as your down payment or equity? That's

how much you end up holding. 250

millies of assets. It's crazy. So,

that's why that's why I make these

videos before the poop hits the fan just

so you could start thinking. You know, I

did a uh a coaching call. I very rarely

do these uh but I did a coaching call

yesterday. Really wonderful couple.

And uh you know, they they were they

were talking about the strategy of

potentially flipping a property this

winter. And and what we actually found

is that, you know, it's ultimately up to

them, of course, but it it might make

sense for them to hold it because of

exactly what we're talking about here.

They own it cash uh and and maybe even

buy more uh to to prepare for sort of

having the piggy bank ready to go. So, I

I found that very interesting and uh I I

think they're in a really great

situation and that they're they're

pretty smart with their tax strategies,

too. So, so very intelligent people.

Great great call, too.

uh attorney guy was really nice. Uh I

mean both of them were wonderful. So uh

a very good call. But anyway, uh this

gives you a little bit of an idea as to

maybe what's going on. Why why are

markets selling off a bit today? Uh you

know, people are starting to wake up to

crap. What if Powell really does go

dirty on us? No, at least you can still

get coupon code J-Hole and me.com.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this. We'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.