Tariffs are BACK — Court STAYS Trump Tariff Ban during Appeal

Yeah. Hey everyone, me Kevin here. So, I

was just doing due diligence on, you

know, one of my favorite wedge deals of

a stock, Restoration Hardware. You know,

it's been crushed because of the

tariffs. You're literally just tariffs

paused on appeals. Trump wins

again.

Ah, I don't know how he does

it. That's bad. Look, you know, I'm

super anti-tariff, okay? Like if we

could get to no tariffs, I think we

could stick a soft landing and we could

finally be

bullish. I get it. I get there being a

stay in the meantime, but there should

be a stay and no tariffs. But maybe

that's just my bias because I don't want

tariffs. In fairness, if they go for a

stay and say no, as in no stay, and

they're like, "No, no, we'll process

your appeal, but no tariff in the

meantime." In fairness to Trump, it

kills all of his negotiation leverage

with all the other

countries. So, as much as I dislike it

personally, from a factual point of

view, it's probably the right thing to

do from the court, it's not what I

expected. I did not think within 24

hours they would you turn to, oh, the

tariffs, the tariffs are back on, boys

and girls. We had no tariffs for 24

hours and the tariffs are back.

It's it's uh remarkable because see my

point of view is that if if we can get a

no tariff situation again, we could

actually enjoy the fruits of that Trump

enthusiasm when he was elected, that

economic enthusiasm. And then guess

what? Well, we would be in a place where

we would start seeing that disinflation.

These members prices over here at

Restoration Hardware, they've fallen

like a rock. We've seen it in the

earnings calls, too. I haven't bought

them yet. I haven't pulled the trigger

on them, but I'm telling

you, I go into the stores all the time

and I do the DD and at least the UTC San

Diego Ljala. Shout out to the Ljalas. I

know it's not Ljala. Okay. Uh we were

just looking at a house hack building.

We had a fire inspection out here cuz we

have, you know, over 25 units out here

with um uh in the apartment buildings.

We had fire sprinkler inspection. Uh and

so then I come do DD while I'm already

out here. You know, you get a free

rental car. It's kind of cool.

Um, the signature aviation pays for it.

They give you a free rental car if

you're only going to be a few hours, but

they charge you like an $800 landing

fee, which I pay for, which is fine. Uh,

but my point is, I get to fly in

practice. No, my point is, at least

based on the due diligence talking to

people here, they they've seen no change

in sales over the last year, which is so

far consistent with their sales. Now,

they've had to be a little bit more

aggressive on pricing. That's probably

how they're keeping the sales stable. Uh

that is what we want though. We want an

economy that's growing that's more

competitive and an economy that is more

competitive creating disinflation. See

remember the beautiful thing about

global competition without tariffs you

know I know there's so much talk about

oh well the Chinese are flooding our

markets or whatever but the beautiful

thing about competition is the reason

Chinese flood our markets is because we

demand their products. We demand their

solar panels their solar inverters and

whatever. So then it it's like we demand

it because it's cheaper and the quality

has actually gone up to where the

cheaper panels are actually better

quality than sometimes the panels that

you could go buy in Germany, which is

crazy to think about. It's the opposite

of what we grew up learning, right? Cuz

we grew up learning as children. Oh, you

know, the Chinese stuff is, you know,

cheap crap for toys, but their

manufacturing has gotten so good, so we

buy more of it, and it looks like

they're dumping on us. But really, what

they're doing is providing better

quality products at lower prices, which

guess what? Gives you more money to

spend on other things. That's

disinflation. You know, when you can buy

the equivalent of a RAV 4 for $15,000 in

China and you're paying $70,000 for, you

know, the fully loaded version of a RAV

4 out here, they call it $20,000 USD

fully loaded over there in China. That

$50,000 Delta, you could do a lot with

that. You could go on a lot of

vacations. You could go on a lot of

dinners. You could invest in companies.

You could start businesses. You could

invest in a house hack. You know, if all

of you instead of spending $70,000 on a

car or whatever you're spending on a

car, $30,000 or whatever, you spend half

as much on a car, you can put more money

into a house hack and then we can

provide more homes for people and then

we create disinflation in housing rents

by developing more homes and everybody

wins. Tenants win, we win, you win,

right? Reminder to go to househark.com

to invest. So if we can have that

disinflation and courts actually rule

against Trump, which I actually believe

that they will, I believe this appeals

court will shut Trump down,

the Fed will be in a position where they

will be able to cut rates because of the

disinflation that we're seeing, which is

really exciting. In fact, remember what

the Fed paper said last See, I I just

sit at home and I read generally all the

time when I'm not working house hack or

due diligence. Trust me, I'm not buying

at Restoration Hardware. buy the stock,

not the product. Maybe not yet, though.

It's still in the downtrend. I haven't

touched it yet, but I'm in I'm tempted.

But anyway, remember that disinflation

will unlock Powell. And what did Powell

tell us already? Powell told us music

over there. I'm going to get copyright

strike. Come on, man. I got construction

over here. What is this? Look at all

that fire retardant that they're

spraying on their metal poles or what? I

got to stay in the middle over here. So

Powell told us

that if it weren't for tariffs, we would

have probably already had negative

inflation, as in more disinflation than

we've been expecting. The GDP data this

morning that came in at 02 versus the.3

on the negative side. Fine. The retail

spending number hurt though. The

spending number didn't come in great

this morning. The person the personal

consumption, it wasn't retail sales,

right? It's personal consumption

numbers, which makes sense, but it's

also still Q1. Q2 data could be really

bad. A lot of businesses are going to

have bad earnings in Q2 because of in

heavily in heavy part because of all the

tariff uncertainty, the April drama, the

stock market shock or whatever. So, even

though I'm turning more bullish because

I think these tariffs are going to die,

I do recognize there's the potential

that Donald Trump is going to say,

"Well, everything is just sectoral. All

right, we're going to tariff toys and

TVs and computers and blah blah blah,

right? But just basically go down the

list and tariff every individual item

versus blanket tariffs via the 19 uh71

economic powers act, emergency economic

powers act, blah blah blah, which was

overruled this morning or overthrown

this morning by uh the trade court,

which is a proper check and balance.

Right now it's in appeals and stayed, so

it's paused. So in other words, tariffs

are back on right now. Right? I know

there are some comments people are like,

"Oh, why why do courts get to decide our

trade policy?" They they don't. Okay?

They they don't. They decide the proper

checks and balances between the

president and the legislature. That's

the point. It's the triangle of checks

and balances. And they're saying, "No,

the president does not have the

authority to tariff with blanket

tariffs. That is the responsibility of

Congress. Why don't you put it in your

big beautiful bill?" "Oh, you can't cuz

it's a budget reconciliation bill."

Okay, why don't you put it in a separate

bill? Oh, you can't because you don't

have enough Democrats who are going to

vote for it. Duh. Oh, well then I guess

you can't do it. Duh. That's the point.

The point of government is not to change

rapidly like this and create this

uncertainty cuz, you know, somebody's

got to buy all that damn debt we have,

right? It's part of the game. You know,

the founding fathers set it up this way

almost. It's incredible the foresight

and uh and and and you know the way our

our system works and and it's one of the

reasons why the United States has been

able to become the largest economy in

the world and the greatest country in

the world. Look, I'm train America, but

there will be opportunities to buy dips.

But let me put it this way. If if courts

are going in the direction of killing

these tariffs is the best possible

outcome and the most bullish possible

outcome. So let me just put it this way.

Save for now. Terrace back on. Damn it.

More bad more bad data for

now. That was quick.

But I think it's a sign of what's to

come that these tariffs are going away.

And remember, I said the most bullish

scenario, tariffs go away, no scen, no

recession. We're able to, you know,

accelerate out. Worst case scenario, the

tariffs go away in 2029 under a new

administration. That's my take. That's

my take. So remember, go to houseack.com

to invest. Open to nonacredited

investors. And uh we had a coupon code

glitch the last time on the uh alpha

report. So if you want to be part of

that, lock in your price. When the price

goes up, you will lock in that lower

price forever. So go to mekevin.com,

join me with the trade alerts. See what

I'm doing, see what I'm looking at, see

what I'm buying, see what due diligence

I'm doing, or whatever my fundamental

analysis. Get it all over at me.com. See

you on the next one. Goodbye. This way.