An Urgent Message to All Stock Market Investors.

everyone meet kevin here look i just

have to say i am sorry the market has

been a little red the last few days i

did go on vacation again i was just in

new york city and now i'm in germany uh

but don't worry after germany i only

have a couple more stops and that's

paris uh and then and then london so uh

you know we should have an okay month

but um if it's bumpy i just want to

apologize in advance and the best thing

you can do is take advantage of that 50

off coupon code okay great now let's

talk about what's actually going on in

the market first thing we need to talk

about is retail capitulation because

well first of all a lot of you like the

updates on retail capitulation because

everybody is kind of hoping for

everybody else to just quickly dump and

sell we want to see the volatility index

go from where it is now which is like

slightly elevated to like that so that

way we know okay great maybe this is the

cathartic flush out where everybody

dumps the dow is down like seven to ten

percent of the day we have the circuit

breakers going off and then that's our

signal to buy but we're not getting that

in fact if anything we've got more

stocks moving above their 50-day moving

average now than we've had previously

which is kind of wild because it's like

wait wait what like how are we bouncing

off the bottom like we haven't hit peak

inflation yet like we haven't gone

through the earnings season yet like oh

no well uh

maybe who knows and i hate this phrase

maybe this time is different but

retail ain't capitulating at least not

yet in fact let me tell you exactly how

many days

in the last six months

retail have been net

sellers now remember what that means

okay so like if retail buys uh i don't

know uh 1.9 billion dollars of stocks

and they sell four billion dollars of

stocks that means they bought 1.5

billion dollars of stocks right because

this number is positive it means that

they were net buyers as a whole retail

and so uh how many days has retail been

a neg or a net

essentially how many days has that

number been negative in the last six

months

zero

literally zero like retail is not

interested in capitulating in fact the

10-day moving average is that retail is

a selling about 41.8 percent of the time

and this is how we're ending up as net

buyers so really kind of interesting in

fact there are a few charts that we

could look at as well that'll give us a

little bit more color on what retail is

up to and i'll tell you i love keeping

an eye on what retail is up to but let's

go ahead and pull up some charts here so

let's see what we got so the first thing

we have here is the inflows chart and

this just shows you since march 22nd

what kind of inflows we've had into in

this case

leveraged etfs which is sort of an

additional data point for us beyond what

i just talked about

and this really shows that we still have

this bottom here being zero we almost

had a negative day here for leveraged

etfs

and this this was over here when the spy

was actually at its lowest point we saw

the least amount of buying on that

leveraged etf

usually we get a lot of by the dipping

happening see like take a look at this

dip right here and this massive move

right here into uh

into leveraged dts same thing over here

you see the dip here boom massive buying

see this big drop right here boom

massive moves into the leveraged etfs we

get a little rally here here you

actually almost had a little bit of

panic is what it looks like

you got a little bit of by the dipping

right here but once we were in that hole

people are like oh man oh no no no we're

nervous so you almost had some level of

capitulation there looking at

leveraged etfs this would usually be

like your three times nasdaq or whatever

right

then we've also got a little bit of

insight into kind of some of the hot

stocks retail is looking at right now

faraday futures

definitely a stock you're seeing a big

move on here and it's there's probably

also a reason for this it's probably

high short interest which we've been

kind of tracking the short interest on

these for a while

in fact one of the favorites that we

used to track

was a go ev remember canoe yeah this

company is one that

issued a notice in their filings that

they have a serious going concern which

is just a way of prepping you to say

that they might go bankrupt this is a

company we've been watching for a very

long time i was briefly an investor in

this company but i we really doubted

their ability to turn their

manufacturing around and this is why we

talked about okay yeah no we're selling

this one which obviously i'm very glad i

did because it's fallen substantially

but it recently has popped up from its

lows in the twos to over four dollars

now

it's up over 100 percent in just the

last five days

and so i think what's happening is

you're going to find

pushes for little short squeezes and

right now it seems to be happening in

the autos go ev faraday future so you're

seeing a lot of retail activity there in

these as little spec plays

and then of course over here you've got

your retail buying the more to this side

they are the more retail buying is

happening so if you zoom in here you can

see amazon here tesla doordash shopify

costco

we did have news by the way and i don't

i don't have that here yet because that

news just came out and this this is

yesterday's but uh every i get this sort

of chart here what retail did the day

after right that makes sense but anyway

um byd

you might actually have uh warren

buffett potentially selling out of this

company this chinese auto manufacturer a

stake that matches warren buffett's

share size of around 20 percent nobody

else has that same share size hit the

hong kong stock exchange and folks are

like oh my gosh

buffett is weenie baby paper handing uh

yeah kind of wild

but anyway a lot of folks have had a lot

of uh enthusiasm for uh for that

particular company and a lot of folks

have been following warren buffett's uh

you know what people like to say riding

warren buffett's coattails

but the stock's down 10 right now on

this potential

that warren buffett is dumping his

shares or has dumped his shares

anyway okay so this is a little bit on

retail here now this is a pretty cool

chart this chart shows you the

percentage of companies selling in the s

p 500 above their 50-day moving average

and when you get really low like over

here in this 10 to 20 range it really

means that every

or the vast majority of companies

in the index the s p 500 are falling and

so this is where you get uh real sort of

pain points and you can kind of see that

end of january

february was relatively painful may and

june pretty painful here we did have

that post-fed march meeting that had a

really nice two-week rally coming after

that i remember at the end of march

saying this is not sustainable like

we've got a lot more pain ahead of us

and uh well sure enough we came off of

that we saw a substantial amount of uh

selling again and we even saw lower lows

in may and june

but what we've seen now is we're almost

at 50 of companies now moving above

their 50-day moving average so you're

definitely seeing some sort of rebound

you're seeing that by the dip activity

you're seeing retail still moving strong

and some folks are saying hey you know

what look at companies like amazon right

now in shopify wayfarer etsy these

companies have all bled out since the

beginning of the year but it almost

feels like we're kind of hitting this

plateau over here the shelf and this

could be creating an opportunity to

finally get back into these in fact some

of these names are in the m1 finance pie

that we've assembled with course members

and some fundamental analysis that we've

been doing which we try to do every day

the markets open in our course member

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i'm very confident of that so we'll see

you there now the next thing that we

really need to talk about is what the

bond market is telling us about the

market because look retail is not

capitulating but maybe they're stupid to

not capitulate maybe retails should sell

right and remember retail is any

individual an institution would be a

company right so retailers any

individual why is retail not

capitulating well maybe it's because the

bond market is telling us hey

inflation's going to be transitory at

least eventually now this seems pretty

wild but the bond market is now starting

to price in real yields into the future

real yields are really important to be

priced into the future because

we

have never seen the federal reserve

u-turn and soften

without real yields being positive the

first chart that's super critical to

understand is the five-year break-even

chart this is the market's expectation

for inflation and look at where we have

fallen to folks this is a new low we are

now lower than at any point we have been

in 2022.

this is huge this is the market telling

us that in all of 2022 all of this area

over here we had more fear about

inflation than we do now in other words

we think we're at the cusp of a turn a

massive drop in inflation just the other

day i showed a chart that lined up

that's why you want to watch every day

that lined up the 5-year break-even and

the 10-year break even with cpi and you

saw a direct correlation between

when the five and ten year break even

plummeted cpi plummeted soon after that

so the bond market is pricing in that

inflation is about to dump

but before that happens the bond market

is also telling us hey we've got an

inverted yield curve which means that

we're fearful that we might see a

recession the white line here is the

inverted yield curve and it is inverted

any time it is under this approximate

red line-ish that i drew there it's a

little higher than where it should be

but it's close enough

and there is a fear that we could

actually see the fed continue to be

aggressive to the point where the yield

curve actually inverts to something like

what happened in the early 90s

which is a pretty good inversion four

tenths of uh of a percent now what's

actually kind of neat about that kind of

inversion is we ended up having a soft

landing in the mid-90s from the federal

reserve now remember folks the fed has

never gone soft on us without real

yields being positive well take a look

at this the futures market has finally

priced in positivity this is good this

means positive real yields in the future

now here's how that works let's just say

the yield on the two-year treasury is

three percent and inflation is let's say

two point seven five percent next year

well now you have a yield on that

treasury of about a quarter of a percent

that is a real

positive yield and why is that so

important again because the fed has

never gone soft on us without having

this positive arrow right here that's

really really critical because if that

stayed negative which it has been for a

while then we know the fed still has to

get more aggressive on us now at the

same time crude oil is finally falling

thank goodness wti is down to 96.6

this will help inflation plummet in the

next few months a lot of this is

happening because folks believe that

europe is going into recession and

they're probably going to have a deeper

recession than us in america i'm in

europe right now and i'll let you know

what i see when i actually get out and

about i kind of just checked into the

hotel room and i'm like i gotta update

the subscribers and the non-subscribers

you know some of you watch who aren't

subscribers they're even haters who

watch and you know what thanks for

watching i appreciate it you know it's

okay to hate uh just don't lie just

don't lie it's okay to hate just don't

lie

so uh then we've got our earnings coming

up this is going to be really

interesting because there are a few

things we're going to watch for earnings

number one we really want to pay

attention to pricing power now one of

the reasons i flip-flopped and sold in

january and then said i would re-buy

which i want to just take a moment to

make that very clear remember what i

said on january 22nd i said that i sold

uh and i sold on the 21st right i told

course members here i planned my video

for the next day and i told everybody

about it here i said that i would sell

because companies have too much pricing

power inflation is going to last

substantially longer things are going to

get a lot worse before they get better

and then i'm going to rebuy within 60

days

and so that's what i've done i've

flipped back into the market about 80

which wasn't another flip flop it was it

was me doing what i said i was going to

do because i wanted to buy when prices

are cheaper and sure some

things have gone a little bit lower but

that's okay because i'm still buying and

i've got some cash right now so i'm

still ready to buy in case we get that

big spike and we get that cathartic

flush out we talked about earlier right

so uh pricing power was one of the big

reasons that i originally sold and so

what we really kind of want to see is

that companies that we're not invested

in are losing pricing power because uh

selfishly that means that those

companies can help us get inflation down

because they'll start dropping prices

like you want to see the walmarts and

the targets and stuff dropping prices

because that's going to help bring

inflation down right obviously companies

you're investing in you want to see

remaining pricing power and margins that

are up right but another thing that we

want to see obviously in addition to

margins is we want to see what the banks

are doing and we've got some big

earnings coming out this week

from not only delta this is going to be

the airlines we'll talk about them in a

sec but we've got jpm and morgan stanley

releasing earnings this week now this is

really really important because what i

specifically want to look for here is

number three allowance for credit losses

okay these are really really really

important because if jpm and morgan

stanley go okay yeah look we know we're

going into a recession we're going to

take massive credit losses because we

expect or we're already starting to see

increasing default rates or whatever

that's going to potentially forecast how

deep the banks think the recession is

going to get remember what they did in

covid when covet hit the banks took like

billions i mean up you know

in one quarter they're like we're just

gonna write off five billion dollars in

credit losses just to take the loss now

and assume that people are just not

going to pay back their debts and yeah

it's going to suck of course the fed

basically bailed everyone out and the

banks are like okay i guess we can take

those back as earnings now which is kind

of cool and that's why the banks did

well later in 2020 and early in 2021 and

then kind of like softened from there

but these banks are really going to let

us know a lot about the consumer i

expect the earnings calls to be critical

in terms of insight for how the consumer

is doing but really want to watch those

allowances for credit losses because if

they don't have big allowances for

credit losses then it's kind of like

really like you say you have a risk of a

recession but like you're not pricing it

in so like which is it right so that's

going to be really interesting it will

show us are we going to have like a

minor recession is this going to be a

technical recession or we have a deep

recession also what are they saying

about housing i mean obviously we know

the mortgage departments are going to

get crushed the trading departments for

like retail clients are going to get

crushed i think uh you know the the

trading activities maybe within their

hedge funds uh within the banks the

hedge departments at the banks might do

decently but these these earnings i

think are going to be very very very

critical and they're going to set the

stage for the rest of the earnings

season uh of course the delta it'd be

kind of interesting to see

what they're seeing if we can get like a

demographic breakdown of like who's

spending money house travel in europe

versus america i was just on a delta

flight uh going to new york and uh uh

you know the i have to say both my oh

this is actually quite interesting even

though we have all these staff shortages

my flight to new york had quite a few

open seats and my flight from jfk to

frankfurt also had quite a few open

seats like they definitely didn't fully

sell out

uh the plane

or the business class section which

which i was kind of surprised by because

i feel like usually they just like free

upgrade people to the business class

section instead of leaving seats empty

but uh no they were definitely the seats

empty so that's quite interesting uh

taiwan semiconductor also reports on

on thursday so jpm's thursday delta is

wednesday morning jpm thursday morning

you've got morgan stanley thursday

morning and taiwan semiconductors

thursday morning that's going to be

fascinating too for amd and nvidia

players because i really think the chip

market still has pain coming ahead of it

especially as the demand that we're

getting for chips has slowed down

substantially from the crypto department

you know whether it's the a6 for

ethereum or the graphic cards for

bitcoin whatever right we've also seen

just a slowdown in uh overall uh chip

stockpiling because we are starting to

see some form of demand slowdown for

like at-home pcs right so this will be

very very interesting to see how tsm

does and that'll be a big precursor for

the entire chip industry we have been

seeing used chip prices fall as well on

ebay i mean it's been straight down

uh we do so so that'll be interesting we

did also get an update that peloton is

bringing their production well they used

to have their production in-house now

they've decided to actually outsource

their production to rexxon industrial a

taiwanese company i you know they had a

lot of some product issues they had rust

issues rustgate issues about covering up

these rushed rust issues but what i

thought was weird about this peloton uh

now wanting to to outsource their

manufacturing what i thought was weird

about that is they freaking bought

pre-core like it should be easy for them

to manufacture uh fitness equipment and

precor was a big part of the peloton

uh appeal because pre-core could get

peloton into strength training and

i mean the pre-core already makes

high-quality gym equipment just google

type into google pre-core

gym equipment and then you'll see and be

like oh yeah i've seen that at like

every hotel i ever go to it's like

really high quality stuff so i thought

that was kind of weird

we are on the eve of cpi release i will

try to live stream the cpi release

tomorrow it'll be the afternoon here in

germany i will try to uh do so

cpi could end up coming in as high as 9

the bloomberg consensus right now of

course is 8.8

and of course we were at 8.6

last month so if we get a nine banger

boy it's just going to make biden quite

sad that's for darn sure

but uh no it's going to make a lot of

people quite sad we do have

the federal reserve bank also giving us

a little bit of an update we've got uh

mr bostak from atlanta telling us that

the u.s economy can cope with higher

interest rates and at the same time

you've got esther george who voted

against the 75 bp hike last month

suggesting hey we got to be careful into

tightening too fast although like we saw

yesterday folks like bill gross are like

come on folks get us to three and a half

percent and then just flatline will you

fed just like stop bsing us okay we got

serious problems here

so anyway that gives you an overall

update thank you so much for watching

this video i'm going to clean this board

and now i'm going to go walk around the

city all right i appreciate you all if

there's breaking news maybe i'll go film

from a different location but i really

like this board and sorry i'm on

vacation to make your stocks drop but

you know maybe you can leave me a thank

you for giving you some deals

uh like the 50 off coupon code

all right thanks bye