What Trump JUST Said on China | Nvidia to MOON!!

Donald Trump in the presser just gave us

a little bit of a hint of what's going

on with the Chinese trade negotiations.

They began today uh at around 100 p.m.

London time, so kind of later in the day

for uh you know European meeting

potentially because of travel times or

jet lag or whatever. But markets mostly

all day long seemed like they were

waiting for some form of update on

Chinese trade negotiations. mostly

because even a 30% tariff on Chinese

goods and 10% uh tariff from China on US

goods plus fentanyl tariffs is still a

substantially larger set of tariffs than

what we've been used to historically.

Obviously markets are wondering what the

longerterm impacts of this could be

specifically regarding potentially chip

restrictions or rare earth mineral

restrictions. All of these that could

affect stocks like either Nvidia, which

had optimism that the talks were going

on, but as we didn't get any news, we

saw Nvidia rotate down. When we look at

the NASDAQ, you pretty much had a

relatively flat day as we were waiting

for news or some kind of bullish talk

from Donald Trump. The only thing we

really got was bullish talk, mostly in

the form of not hating on Elon Moore on

Tesla. That's because Elon or Trump said

he's he doesn't know if Elon's called.

uh he used to have a good relationship

with Elon. He might move his Tesla

around a little bit to different

properties and away from the White

House. So, it's kind of like, you know,

he Elon's moved into this category of

like, you used to be my friend and you

no longer are, but I'm not going to poop

on you. And this talk about Donald Trump

still liking Starlink was supportive

probably to Tesla stock here, indicating

that Trump isn't trying to go all out

vindictive here. But markets were really

looking for some form of enthusiasm on

trade and we didn't really get that

today. Instead, what we got is that uh

talks are going to continue for a second

day. There was an anticipation that

talks could continue tomorrow for a

second day. Uh we have uh restrictions

on exports to them for certain computer

chips and things like jet engines or

ethane uh not to be confused with

methane. And uh then uh then of course

China controls about 90% of the rare

earths market. So you have limitations

on rare earths uh that uh that you know

China is slowly enabling certain

American companies to start buying those

rare earths again mostly because China

not only has the rare earth supply but

the processing power. Uh and so the

latest update is really just that

representatives for quote both nations

per Bloomberg here ended their first day

of negotiations in London after more

than 6 hours of negotiations. Talks

concluded around 8:00 p.m. local time.

That's potentially closer to 7 hours.

And advisers will meet again tomorrow at

10 a.m. So about 3 hours earlier than

they did today. So in other words, we

could get some more updates tomorrow

morning. Donald Trump says he's only

getting good reports and he hopes that

they're doing well. However, he does say

that China's not easy and that they take

advantage of us and he kind of goes down

that whole diet tribe that he usually

does. Although, this is very typical of

Trump because I mean, he's trying to

also help his team negotiate. So, I

don't think we really got anything super

exciting out of China today and we

probably won't until tomorrow. Though

after these talks conclude, I expect

both sides are going to announce some

form of progress mostly because uh both

sides want to show their people that

they are working for the people, right?

Take a look at uh some commentary that

we have from the uh embassy over here. I

thought it was interesting the timing of

this post right here. you have Chinese

defense spokesperson US weapons cannot

save Taiwan. Now I thought that was

really interesting because like while

negotiations are going on you literally

have the Chinese embassy and the US

going you know those US weapons

they're not strong enough to take Taiwan

in terms of defense. This also comes at

the same time as we hear that uh

shipment data is uh uh you know

plummeting to uh to China was down about

30%. Well, I want to see where that stat

was. I think it may here it is. Chinese

exports slid 35% year-on-year in May.

New data showed largest drop since

February of 2020. Mind you that in May

would have still included uh you know

the period up to about May 12th when we

got the loosening of that 145%.

Uh Chinese tariffs chip stocks such as

Nvidia and AMD rallied Monday morning

boosting the tech heavy NASDAQ. Right.

Well, something we mentioned this

morning as well in the uh alpha report

which you could join in my pre-market

live streams. I do a course member live

stream and uh sort of an alpha report is

I talked about how important this line

was going to be today. the 12248 line.

And it's remarkable because you might

say like, "Oh, sure, Kevin. You're

looking at this in the past." Yeah, but

if you join the alpha report, you'll see

me talk about it here when we were at

119. This is when I was talking about it

and it's written in a report timestamped

that like, "Hey, you want to be careful

that 12248 line. I don't know that we're

going to break it today." And sure

enough, you got almost a perfect reject

right here. And you almost double

rejected it here. Now, that said, Nvidia

and AMD could rally tomorrow if we get

really good news. So if you're trading

these, you got to pay attention to what

Trump is saying on Truth Social

tomorrow. Obviously, this goes without

saying, but beyond that, you also want

to be, you know, broadly paying

attention to, hey, like, is this going

to drag on like it did in 2019, 2018,

2019, and 20. The only reason our trade

negotiations with China ended was

because of COVID in 2020 and we came to

some compromised deal that ended up

hurting American farmers to the benefit

of Brazilian farmers. You know, we ended

up having to bail out our farming

industry in part because of the tariff

negotiations and how long they took in

2018. Markets are really hopeful that we

can quickly resolve uh and that the US

GDP is strong enough. Uh jobs report is

stable enough right now to suggest that

GDP is fine. The uh Federal Reserve

might end up cutting once or twice at

the end of the year. Uh that would be a

tailwind to the economy. You've got the

Atlanta Fed GDP, which obviously is very

high right now because you had such a

negative last quarter, and we're not

importing as much right now. What

matters most is what's going to happen

in Q3.

Where is this going to stabilize? Are we

going to stabilize under zero? Are we

going to stabilize under one, under two?

You know, anything over one, I think,

would be very, very positive. And that's

the trajectory where we were before we

were slightly over two. So, very

important. Uh, and I'm curious to see

how these negotiations go. But as

history says, it'll likely take longer.

China accounts for almost 70% of the

world's production of rare earth

minerals. H, that's interesting. I've

seen stats uh indicate

90%. So, I think this might be a

difference between uh like the the

actual rare earths uh and rare earth

refining capacity and then mining

capacity. So, there could be some

differences there. Specifically, the

Trump admin is prepared to remove a

recent spate of measures against chip

design software, jet engine parts,

chemicals, nuclear material, and others.

So, it almost sounds like we're cleaning

up little pieces. It's like a very

incremental almost deal. Trump

administration has said this morning

expects a handshake. Very, very high-end

Nvidia stuff is not going to get

negotiated away. However, maybe the

lower-end chip uh Chinese chips that'll

be a big boost to ch to Nvidia. Remember

in the last Nvidia earnings, Nvidia took

over a $4 billion hit in the quarter. I

think it was an $8 billion hit in total

because they're not able to export those

cheaper I think they're the H20 chips.

If we get a deal tomorrow that says

Nvidia can start, you know, resuming

their export, which I expect. I expect

this. Okay, expect you're going to get a

resumption of those cheaper chips.

Nvidia is going to boom. You might hit

all-time highs. I mean, next stop in my

opinion on Nvidia because this is a cash

cow of a machine. They dump like the bag

holder of the AI trade is going to be

Coreweave in the long term. Not in the

near term. It's a great play in the

near-term. Bad play in my opinion, very

long term. But I think we could break

through this 164 level. So, I'm I'm

pretty bullish on these trade

negotiations with Nvidia. I don't think

macro is really going to go poopy dupy

until at the earliest in the third

quarter. And so, you can't really be

bearish on it right now. It's pretty

impressive. So, got to give uh excuse

me, credit where credit's due and we'll

see what happens with the negotiation,

but I I do certainly hope that uh the

trade war comes to a complete end. And

uh I'll knock on wood for some very good

news. But otherwise, kind of quiet in

terms of China trade news. Hey, quick

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