Mega Bear Issues New Warning for Coming Stock Collapse

well Mike Wilson is back at it again our

famous bear with yet another bear piece

as usual let's jump right into it so a

weekly warm-up from Fear to Greed says

Mike Wilson investor sentiment and

positioning has turned 180 degrees at an

inopportune time in our view fading

physical support less liquidity and the

impact of inflation filing faster than

expected contribute to second half of

2023 caution now one of the things that

he starts with is this idea that

sentiment and positioning has turned

outright bullish as both retail and

Institutional Investor sentiment has

reached its highest level in over two

years now I thought that was very

interesting because just last week we

went through the uh

Bank of America fund manager survey and

Goldman Sachs positioning surveys in

JPMorgan positioning surveys and there's

no indication that people are actually

as bullishly positioned as Mike Wilson

suggests so I looked at you know one of

his charts for suggesting that people

were so bullishly positioned and I

wanted to look into it a little bit he

uses this right here these are the

charts he uses he uses sentiment and

positioning our near post-pandemic highs

and I thought really because that's only

what we've heard of recently but

people's positioning doesn't seem to be

that high right now in fact people's

positioning seems to be really low so

what I did is I researched this

n-a-a-i-m survey which I had never heard

of before and I thought to myself okay

what is this naaim survey and what can

it actually tell us about investor

positioning and this is what I found

it's an n-a-a-i-m exposure index and

what I thought was incredible was the

following the chart or basically the

survey depicts a two-week moving average

of responses

and then I thought okay well of what

kind of responses and it says here

as the name indicates the exposure index

provides insect insights into the actual

adjustments active Risk Managers have

made to their client accounts over the

last two weeks and then here's the

similar chart that we saw from Mike

Wilson's Morgan Stanley and then I'm

like wait a minute wait a minute

people are not positioned bullishly

today

and as a result as they've started

missing the rally they've realized that

this last rally has legs and so they've

u-turned and they've rapidly u-turned

their positioning they haven't

positioned heavily bullishly in fact the

average fund manager is still 32 percent

underweight equities most companies most

institutional investors still have

substantial cash or bonds or cash

equivalents sitting on the sidelines and

so what Mike Wilson is bearpiece is

saying is Well or what he's trying to do

is he what he's trying to do is he's

trying to say hey look I mean he says it

here clearly let's just use his words so

now you have a little bit more

background and Mike Wilson is trying to

tell you hey hey hey look everyone all

of a sudden is positioning themselves a

lot more bullishly sentiment and

positioning has turned outright bullish

as both retail and institutional

sentiment has reached the highest level

of two years but wait a minute the

survey chart that you're using is

actually a survey chart that measures

the change in positioning it's a first

derivative

wait a minute how do we reconcile that

Kevin I failed math I need to know a

little bit more about what this means

okay so let me put it this way let's say

you were a bear and you've been a bear

for a long time you're like look this is

this is a chart if I'm here it means I'm

a bull okay but I'm a bear so I've been

positioned down here for a long time and

it's like you're a bear bear bear bear

bear bear bear bear bear well if all of

a sudden you're like oh dang maybe we

need to be like TS Lombard and because

there's a risk that this rally continues

and we don't want to be caught offside

with horrible returns let's increase our

exposure to equities and then all of a

sudden you're like we're gonna be a

little less bearish and we're gonna go

like neutral okay and then we're kind of

gonna stay there well that inflection

point would show you a massive Spike on

a first derivative chart

a first derivative chart is very much

like this chart that Mike Wilson is

talking about right here

so when you get this n a a i m chart

you're really looking at the change the

rapid change of people's positioning now

that is very very different

from what Mike Wilson is implying here

Mike Wilson is implying that everyone's

a bowl now no people have just rapidly

gone from really really bearish

too less bearish

and this is now what Mike Wilson is

using to reiterate that fundamental

growth is about to get destroyed and

again I'm not arguing that there aren't

going to be stocks that are going to

correct and that there aren't stocks

that are overvalued uh but to make this

argument that oh my gosh everybody's

bullish and this chart is at the highest

level in two years without actually

understanding that this is a first

derivative chart this is ludicrous

so to explain it

like somebody's five years old

somebody was really really sad

then they got a cookie and while overall

they were still sad they became slightly

less sad and if we measured

the change in their emotion from really

really sad to slightly less sad we'd see

a big spike

it would just be like all of a sudden

this this line went up

and if we measured how quickly that line

went up we'd be like oh that looks like

a big change the person went from being

really really sad to being less sad very

rapidly because I have a cookie

and if we just looked at that little

measurement of excitement and said oh

now that person is a bull we'd obviously

be mischaracterizing him

anyway okay so that's just the first

part of Mike Wilson's piece here okay

what else inflation is falling fast

now Mike Wilson is literally going for

the argument as a bear that folks

inflation is now falling so fast

that crap now earnings are really going

to get hurt this is bad because if

inflation Falls so fast it means

companies are going to be able to raise

prices as much anymore duh and it means

it means their profits are going to go

down duh especially especially Staples

yet uh spoiler alert what stocks does

Mike Wilson suggest that you invest in

what is on Mike Wilson's fresh money buy

list well of course the first thing

that's on the fresh money buy list is

access to Kevin's courses linked down

below

email us at staffmecaven.com if you want

to bundle check them out real estate

zero to millionaire stocks and

psychology of money things like

perspectives like you're learning here

artificial intelligence how to actually

use it to be more productive in the

productivity course on making more money

as an employee or an entrepreneur you

know liability insurance llc's attorneys

dealing all of this stuff incredible

things we've got in there anyway here's

the fresh money buy list outside for

Kevin's course intend anyway what do we

have here fresh money buy list oh

Coca-Cola Colgate Palmolive McDonald's

Mondelez Humana

Verizon Walmart oh no the very Staples

that Kevin thinks are actually going to

perform poorly because of a lack of the

ability to raise prices under an

inflationary regime because they don't

really have marginal pricing power

beyond just people buying some of these

things out of necessity which does not

necessarily imply you can raise prices

forever that's exactly why we're seeing

limits to price increases talked about

at Coca-Cola at Costco at Walmart at

Target at uh Kimberly Clark they're all

like crap we can't raise prices anymore

because oh my gosh even though because

you're a staple doesn't mean you can

raise prices forever imagine that

there's actually a limit wait a minute

so Mike Wilson says inflation's falling

rapidly and so to protect yourself from

now inflation falling rapidly you should

invest in the consumer Stables

but those are the ones with literally

the smallest pricing power compared to

like you know

some of the actual companies are really

going to have growth

like you know the big seven in the S P

500 whether that's your Nvidia your

Microsoft's or apple or whatever when

they've already been at flat growth you

know year over year coming out of these

stimulus eras uh but at least you'll

have some growth and some pricing power

unlike these staples which was

ironically exactly what Mike Wilson

suggests you invest in I don't know

blows my mind but whatever

uh as a result of the weak arguments

that Mike Wilson has for this which is a

lie basically the implication is a lie

and as a result of this inflation

nonsense now you have Mr Mike Wilson

suggesting

the following

fiscal support is fading we're going

from stimulus to not stimulus and that's

going to be bad

really oh my gosh Mike Wilson

I'm just gonna leave that one and then

just not add commentary to that one

instead let's go to the classic bear

narrative yes let's go to the classic

bear narrative that every bear is

talking about today

that's okay

but the classic bear narrative is the

liquidity drain the next six months is

going to be so bad as liquidity starts

getting drained and it's going to

destroy asset prices especially stocks

because that money's got to come from

somewhere right oh no the money's got to

come from somewhere well where does it

generally come from

uh well as of late the reverse repo

facility but wait a minute Kevin what

indication do we have that during the

last of the liquidity drawdown money has

actually come out of the reverse repo

facility uh well first of all consider

that when the treasury general account

needs to get filled up and they're

offering you 5.6 on six month t-bills

and the reverse Reba facility is only

offering you five percent

which that wedge gets bigger when the

FED pauses or Cuts rates

maybe all the money that's in Reverse

repos can slowly go help prop up the

liquidity at the treasury general

account oh maybe there's a chart that

says exactly that is happening oh maybe

just maybe if we happen to zoom in a

little bit we can actually see that draw

down just like we saw during the banking

crisis in the reverse repo facility

starting to accelerate which doesn't

actually affect the stock market because

this is like a massive insulative

blanket of liquidity of two trillion

dollars still two trillion dollars

sloshing around as a Friday

oh but it's starting to fall

duh that's what it's there for

ah

I'm sorry I'm just I'm just exhausted by

by the bear narratives that are weak I

mean I if they had a really good bare

narrative here I'd like to talk about it

but it's just

it's just weak and then of course buried

into the piece what do you got you get

stuff like this

we do acknowledge that uh growth has

been better in some areas than we would

have expected at this point

more specifically consumer services and

certain Technologies spending related to

artificial intelligence have surprised

to the upside at least for some

companies this upside has been reflected

in both stock prices and analysts

expectations in many cases however we

would push back on the idea that this is

going to drive a change in the growth

trajectory for the entire stock market

yep don't worry folks AI is just a fad

okay

so that gives you a little bit of a look

into uh Mike Wilson here and uh some of

his latest uh feces uh as you can tell

I'm a little uh bearish on the bear

anyway okay that covers Mike Wilson

check out the programs link down below

I'm building your wealth and let's move

on