Holy SH9T! The Fed *JUST* Capitulated! [Great Reset!]

well holy smokes things are getting a

little bullish in here and oh boy oh boy

we got to talk about it because

something big just happened from the fed

you got to know about it but you also

got to know what is this potentially

going to mean for next week is it going

to staish or is there a potential oopsy

doopsy coming let's talk about it but

first remember that yesterday and the

day before I made videos saying Mega

bullish and then why the FED is about to

explode markets up and in these videos I

explained that the Federal Reserve has a

chance of sticking a soft Landing all

they need to do is not F this up by

going frankly too slowly the slower they

go the more bearish it is because they

increase the odds of a big layoff cycle

coming I know it's not here yet now but

it's coming companies are on the edge of

layoffs and we'll talk recession in just

a moment so I thought okay they got to

be dovish here so they're either going

to go 50 and be doish and by virtue of

going 50 or they're going to go 25 and

have a really doish summary of economic

projection so I basically said all right

they're going to be doish and markets

are going to be happy about that now

watch the video because there's more

detail and I go into the projections but

I wrote why the FED is about to explode

markets up and literally I wasn't

expecting this frankly to happen this

quickly I thought it' happen next week

but boom Market shot up today but it

wasn't because of my video it was

because of Nikki Leakes see yesterday we

had a 14% chance of a 50 basis point

hike and the Federal Reserve doesn't

seem

satisfied with a 25 basis point hike

being priced in by markets yesterday

after CPI PPI data which remember I said

I said look I don't actually think it's

bearish yeah you had a little bit of an

uptake in airfares and lodging who cares

it's a very volatile number and then you

had the super lagging owners equivalent

rent when leading indicators of rent are

still saying we're still in trajectory

down who cares right and I'm not trying

to like like I mean think about it I I'm

a bear but that's actually a bullish way

to analyze that because I think it's the

correct way to analyze it like I don't

look at stuff and go well I'm a bear so

I'm going to try to find the bearish way

to understand this I just look at the

DAT and I go H all right so yesterday

we're at like 14 basis points at 25 and

I'm like no this is going to increase

the odds the FED makes a mistake and

then you have a greater chance of

recession I don't want a [ __ ]

recession look yes if if we have a

recession uh some of my plays they're

not shorts uh are going to do really

well but they'll be fine as well even if

we don't have a recession you know I'm

positioned for both

scenarios but a recession is really bad

for like startups and trying to grow

businesses right so I don't like that

that creates a lot of pain economic

Gloom is is depressing it's bad so uh

yesterday we're just at 14 I'm like this

isn't good this isn't good and then lo

and behold we get a Nikki leaks drop now

when have we ever had a Nikki leaks drop

before and who the hell is Nikki leaks

maybe you don't even know who that is

well it's Nick Theos of the Wall Street

Journal he usually sits next to the New

York Times girl at the fomc meeting but

he didn't last time which makes us

wonder if there's like some relationship

drama happening between nick uh and and

and her Smiley

act that's really a topic for a

different video maybe not a video at all

but anyway Nick

t on June 13th just about 30 hours

before the

2022 June 15th fomc meeting dropped a

little Nicki leak now why did he drop a

Nicki leak well it's because markets

were pricing in just a 35 to 45% chance

of a 75 basis point hike well the

meeting was in 30 days the feds in

Blackout Window they can't just tell

buler to go hawk like they want to give

us a 75 in in June of 2022 but markets

are only like nah nah 35% chance we get

a 75 and the fed's like no no no it's

going to be 75 but they can't say it cuz

they're in

blackout so what do they

do Nick T tell the world we're doing

75 fed likely to consider 75 basis point

hike this week June 133 posted at 7:47

p.m. it's like frantically get the

article out just 30 hours before the

meet the day before day one of the

meeting why first of all that's why he

got the name Nikki leaks second of all

why well they do this on purpose they do

this on purpose because if the FED sends

this signal and then like every

something breaks like I don't know Bank

fails or whatever the FED can u-turn at

the meeting 2 days later and Nick T was

wrong

not the Fed so it keeps the FED

credibility High cuz this is just a a

journalist saying likely right so like

there's plausible deniability here that

there wasn't some like signal chat or

text message or phone call or inperson

uh you know uh hoodie

meeting uh so so anyway then it actually

happened again during the banking crisis

during the banking crisis on March for

the March 20th meeting people were like

oh man the fed's not going hike 25

because of the banking crisis but the

FED didn't I mean they bailed out the

banking crisis right they ensured

everyone's deposits so we get this

article Federal Reserve faces tough

decision uh on rate increase just hours

before the FED meeting and Nick T

basically signals that JP's about to

announce a

25 and sure enough the 25 gets priced in

you know previously on that June 22 one

we were at 35 to 45% chance of 75 that

went to like 95 after the Nick T article

so that's why people pay attention to

Nikki leaks and why we call him Nikki

leaks cuz when the feds during the

blackout period This Is What You Get but

you could also get commentary from other

people like uh Dudley you know Dudley

was the former New York fed president

doesn't work at the FED anymore but I

mean JP might be like Bill bump it you

know and and then William Dudley goes on

the news channel you know um I think

there's a strong casee for 50 you know

the labor markets uh slowing down you

know we really ought to cite uh what JP

said at Jackson Hole not seeking any

further softening of the labor market he

didn't call me or anything I just I'm

just basing it on you know what he said

a few weeks

ago it's all

rigged that's why I actually think it's

hilarious because it's just like if you

read it like the book that I'm I'm

reading you basically it's pretty

straightforward how the game is played

okay cool the question is how do you

trade around this okay well that gets a

little bit more complicated first thing

you have to know and I'm just I'm going

to keep this one short because you

probably already heard about it yes Nick

T dropped a piece okay yep not he

dropped a piece right here the fed's

rate cut dilemma okay should we start

small or big we don't know what to do

blah blah blah uh they talk about hey

you know we don't want to let the soft

Landing slip through our grasps like

slip through your fingers fine I'm just

bottom lining this article for you okay

and then over at here it says you know

right now markets expect the FED to cut

by more than 100 basis points this year

but if they only go with 25 they could

cause the market to crash which would be

bad and they don't want the market to

crash so I write bump it but there's

also the risk if they go 50 they might

pump the markets too much and they might

cause inflation so there are some issues

right so they kind of mention like

there's this Duality here and also if we

go 50 let's be clear that doesn't mean

November and December are going to be 50

we're going to be data dependent fine so

you could be 50 2525 or 50/50 25

whatever right fine they're basically

outlining what the fed's going to do for

you next week and just in case in case

this wasn't clear enough just go to the

last sentence okay everybody knows the

last sentence is where they're like

leaving their final thought which is

what they want you to walk away with

there it is last sentence we were at the

point where you might say I could go

either way 25 or 50 this is quoting

people these are but this quote is is

like you're quoting the doubters at the

FED right where like you got the Esther

George or Bullard or whatever like I

don't know do we do we really want you

know do we really want to encourage 50

uh or or uh you know are we going to go

with 25 just to be conservative and then

it's like uh oh you know actually uh

we'd be okay with either but that's not

actually the last line keep in mind

bolard not at the FED anymore but he

still kind of circulates and provides

commentary and opinions so the last line

here is but I think the risk management

has shifted to the labor market and

favors doing a 50 the last line of the

article is we're getting the 50 boys and

girls this is also somebody else who

used to work at the FED see former fed

Vice chair so I'm saying they call up

their cronies and they go yo do all the

interviews and make it seem like you

know we're kind of 5050 but you we think

it's better to do 50 okay so we're

getting we're getting 50 basically this

is what this is all right so so now the

question is well how do you play this

right like all right well this is a

little complicated in order to

understand how to play this you have to

understand the fed put now this is not

the easiest to understand but I'm going

to try to outline it as simply as

possible and then I want to show you

where you can get fed

puts and I'll explain what that is too

first you have to understand the

recessionary cycle people are like Kevin

there are no layoffs no shiitake

mushrooms okay we're not there yet okay

this is where we are we are right here

stage zero pricing power wains for goods

and services and labor becomes more

available we're at stage zero okay then

two things can happen that are bad you

could have a sustained shock like I

don't know a war a banking crisis

something an election something that

introduces a lot of volatility

uncertainty Panic uh and then you get a

market correction right these obviously

well frequently go together if you get a

market correction you get stock declines

companies suddenly rapidly ramp up cost

cutting you know like Verizon and

Microsoft they're doing layoffs over the

next few months you can get a lot of

those

then the unemployment rate exceeds 5 a

12% 2% above the prior low and then

you're probably in a recession stocks

fall risk assets like bonds and gold go

to the Moon Gold's already Rising

because of this bonds are already Rising

because of this because you know frankly

uh you know there was a mar a note this

morning from some economists they're

like um the Futures curve is really

starting to price in more of a recession

here like the FED really needs to start

moving like now because it might already

be too late right and then markets

basically in a recession markets

basically continue to fall and bleed out

and crash until the FED capitulates

which they did in 1989 March of 2001

February 2008 December of 2018 March of

2020 at that point and this is the hard

part at that point you switch from bonds

and gold to risk assets at the point of

fed capitulation that's when you go all

in on risk assets right okay or so this

is this is in in recession so in

recession you go all in at fed

capitulation or in a soft Landing

scenario you buy when the FED comes in

with the fed put which is basically

saying we're going to stop the market

from selling off by going we're going to

talk the market up and this is why I

made that video yesterday saying they're

going to talk the market up because if

they talk the market up less odds of

going to stock declines du less odds of

cost cutting less odds of unemployment

going up it's a simple

game so the question is is that fed put

going to be enough now me personally I I

will be clear here my bullishness level

edged up a little bit I've actually

given a heads up of this somebody asked

me last week and I've made it clear on

videos that if we get a 50 would that

make me bullish or bearish because a 50

might signal distress and I said no it

would make me bull bullish the reason it

would make me bullish is because the FED

is actually responding to the problems

I'm already

seeing but it might not be enough we

don't know I think I will have more

personal

Clarity when we get closer to the

election I don't have to wait for the

election I really don't care about the

election outcome you know me I'm in the

middle the University of Michigan this

morning says people are pricing in a

Harris Victory I think that's actually

going to get a lot tighter and closer as

we get

closer Okay so

everybody should do what's best for

their own portfolio obviously my take is

I want to see what happens over the next

six weeks to figure out am I going to

tilt over five on the bull scale the

bare bull scale or am I staying

under and here's

why first we have stock blackout periods

for BuyBacks that start today before Q3

earnings look at Adobe today Adobe

missed by

1.4% that's it a 1.4 percentage Point

Miss stock down

8.7% you get that sort of pain happening

in the tech and AI sector it ain't

good it's that capex spending dries up

you're going to have layoffs it's going

to be painful and indebted companies

like Oracle are going to freak

out but mortgage companies might do

really well wow who's been talking about

mortgage companies potentially doing

well United wholesale ldi rocket

mortgage it's still early on these plays

my

take but the point is you have blockout

periods election volatility and earnings

and Q4 guidance coming up as well as

additional jobs data and a few more

reports that we're going to get uh you

know at the beginning of October and

frankly even at the beginning of

November you'll get another jobs report

you get one more CPI report two more

jobs reports uh and then a bunch of

other data in between then and now

specifically with um earnings so I think

there's a lot to digest and I don't see

a rush to dive in I understand on a very

Green Day today I it's like oh well you

know uh you could be all in dude I got a

lot of exposure to the mortgage

companies uh my we're kicking ass today

I also got a lot of exposure to other

things that are doing well today you

know it's great and they're not shorts

I'm not short the only thing I have

exposure to is a small short Bitcoin

position uh uh but but it's so small

it's way offset by these huge moves in

some of these other stocks so uh I've

just position towards what I think will

do well in in a recessionary time this

is different or a soft

Landing uh okay so then then the

question becomes all right well if

everybody's now pricing in the FED being

dovish so they're not doing it's not

great I mean we're only at a 52% chance

of a 50 basis point cut right now so

you're still 50/50 frankly you need

another Nick Niki leaks article probably

like Monday or Tuesday expect another

Nikki te leaks article and then it'll

slam dunk in and it'll get a like 80 90%

chance of a 50 great fantastic that

should be great for my plays as well

talked about those in the course member

live streams so now what about for you

and what do I think the market direction

is going to be this is a big one this is

important because I think something

might happen next week and I'm going to

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we can take so I just want to be clear

about that so what do I think about next

week and this is a little bit of a

warning for next week honestly I think

markets are like fully pricing in a full

doish fed right

now and we might have a little bit of a

buy the rumor sell the news now that

I've put all this together I think about

it I'm like okay so you're going to get

a doish Fed we already know that there's

a chance the buying in stocks may have

already

happened and then what do you have to

look forward to oh crap earnings are

coming up profit taking stocks down I

don't know it's something to watch for

and remember the FED doesn't want

markets to Skyrocket because they think

that'll be inflationary they just want

them to go up and be stable so you don't

have recession Anyway full breakdown for

you hopefully you found it helpful thank

you so much for considering stock.com

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channel here I love you all we'll see

you in the next one goodbye and good

luck out there do not advertise these

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nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

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Go congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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