Summary of November 2023 Fed FOMC | Jerome Powell.

so what did we just hear from Jerome

Powell at the conference where he

shouted quote just close the effing door

as he was interrupted by climate

protesters just close the door close the

door well we heard Drome Powell say that

we have a long way to go which

definitely starts out pretty bearish

especially when he suggests quote we

don't want to be misled by a few months

of data this started bearish it's almost

like he went in and the other folks at

the FED are like yo when you go in today

everybody's going to be watching you

jpow and you need to say some bearish

stuff to balance out the what you caused

last week cuz last week you made

treasury yields drop from 49 499 at one

point all the way down to 45 okay well

today they spiked right back up after

Jerome B's initial talk right nicely to

46 2ish right around there 463 464

NASDAQ down spy down Tesla down and face

it's all painful okay so this sounds bad

and we heard the general stuff that

we've heard before like hey the first

part of getting inflation down was the

supply chain rebound which took longer

than we thought more coid waves than we

thought the second part is going to be

having to have sufficiently restrictive

monetary policy okay great we've heard

all that before so what is some of the

new stuff that we heard from jpow here

well for me I loved hearing him say buy

Kevin's courses with the price going up

Friday that coupon is Juicy and you got

to get in before Friday go to meet

kevin.com to check out all the new Bruce

Pro courses the second thing that I

really loved hearing j po say was will

the neutral rate of interest rise so Ken

rogo actually talked about this I was

watching the live uh the video but also

the the uh live notes on this rogoff

thinks that the answer is yes that the

neutral rate of interest is going to go

up substantially because of De

globalization and green energy so green

energy de globalization and high

spending on defense three factors that

could actually leave interest rates

higher for the rest of the decade Ken

rogoff thinks Economist from Harvard

Drome pow's response because drum pow

was questioned hey well are you going to

raise the r star you know does that mean

we're going to have to have a higher

neutral rate does that mean rates are

going to basically have to be higher

forever and Dron P's kind of like will

neutral raise

up uh who cares we have models but

really we're just going to be practical

about it inflation down good don't have

to raise rates more jobs stable we hold

stable jobs start turning over we cut

that's basically what he can conveyed

during this conference I did think it

was fascinating though to hear him

basically take this idea about will

neutral rates rise and just throw it

aside just didn't care at all about that

so I do did think that was very

interesting inter in he also says that

we are probably at sufficiently

restrictive levels this is pretty key uh

both of these things actually somewhat

bullish suggesting that drum Powell is

aware of that two-sidedness of fed

policy on one hand suggesting hey look

you know maybe maybe savings created

more of a lag and therefore we've been

structurally resistant to higher

interest rates but as we kind of watch

we want to make sure we don't go too far

that was yet another bullish thing that

he said because previously he said well

if we go too far we could just cut now

he's saying quote we don't want to go

too far rates are probably sufficiently

restrictive we have a mandate for an

equal outcome between Max employment and

price stability these were definitely

softeners to his initial response of we

have a long way to go and you know

monetary policy might have to do the the

rest of the work since Supply chains

have done their work and now there's the

rest to do so we'll see personally my

takeway on this is patience this process

is taking a whole lot longer than

anybody thought it would take and it's

probably going to continue taking a

whole lot longer I think patience is

really important in this sort of

environment uh and not to be Reckless

and to minimize your potential risk for

any kind of loss I do think there's a

cycle of probably tax loss harvesting

that's going to happen between the next

5 weeks here as we get into to the close

of the year uh five there's about seven

weeks left in the year uh but buckle up

I think we're going to get through it I

strongly believe in the long term the

Nike Swoosh will be accurate uh and uh I

don't think we're going to revisit the

lows of last year knock on wood uh the

news you know this this positioning from

drum Powell uh and the FED is not

horribly bearish drw Powell could have

been substantially more bearish here uh

of course his initial comments did drive

up yields so you've definitely got some

fluctuation here especially since you

had Ken Griffin come out this morning

really Echo the ideas of De

globalization which Ken rogoff talked

about and his take is hey look

everybody's trying to De globalize

that's going to leave rates higher for

the rest of the decade that was Kenny G

this morning rogov kind of echoed that

uh I've always called this

reglobalization which is a shifting and

rebuilding of Supply chains but not

necessarily deglobalization then again

who knows lot of uncertainty and like

Ken roov said in this conference this is

probably one of the most uncertain times

that we have seen in decades and it kind

of made me think there for a moment wow

you know like when Leman Brothers

collapsed and the housing crisis was

occurring it was kind of like all right

we know we're effed you know and

everything goes to crap and it's like

your classic kind of recession the FED

has to come in and bail everyone out

February of 2009 and the pain is over

right so it's kind of like you have this

this 9mon period of pain

now we've actually been at it longer

than 2008 if you think about it we've

had Drome Powell creating pain since Q4

of 2021 December of 2021 we're coming up

on two years of a painful Market two

freaking years man and and nobody knows

when it's going to come to an end

because it's not clear that the FED can

just come bail us out because then you

have the risk of you know inflation

again so I mean even the IMF uh

individual who was speaking here she

suggested that uh stagflation is a

scenario that cannot be ruled out and

that is highly atypical to have a

Slowdown in inflation occurring without

a significant blow to the labor market

but because of that we can basically

keep rates higher for longer so kind of

wild to think about those things now if

we look at the 102 to look at the yield

curve uh you've got I mean just to

clarify that what's Wild is how long

this pain has been going on right that's

the wild part and it's like when's it

going to end and people like I don't

know maybe maybe March maybe January

maybe may maybe the end of next year who

knows maybe it will be a recession

there's a lot of fear uh right now rate

cuts only being priced into about

4.6% by the end of next year which is

like nothing it's like 75 bips of a rate

cut you know not pricing in any more

rate increases that fed term rate capped

out at 535 5375 puts us at Max so we're

really not expecting anything here and

uh yeah I mean I think the only thing we

could oil fortunately under 80 bucks

that's great uh gold retreated again a

little bit I think the only thing that

we could say with certainty the only

thing that we could say with certainty

is that the price of the course is going

up Friday night so you got any questions

send us an email send us an email over

at uh staff atme kevin.com we can help

you out thank you so much for being here

I'm going to go through the rest of the

Elon pod and I'll probably post a video

of someone just my clips of it so uh

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estate broker and becoming a stock

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