The Shocking Jobs Data Release.

all right we are 30 seconds away from

jobs data change in non-farm payroll is

expected to be 230 000 down from the

prior of 300 and 11 000. we are looking

for private payrolls to come in at 218

prior 265. most important average hourly

earnings expecting it to come in at 0.3

uh and here we go okay we got 236 a

little above expectations uh we've got

0.3 for the month over month average

hourly earnings average year over year

earnings 4.2 uh so I would say 6 000

more jobs than expected on the uh the

headline read that actually dropped the

unemployment rate the unemployment rate

fell to 3.5

the uh this is good the labor force

participation rate jumped up to 62.5

all right so this is uh this is not a

bad report it's not a fantastic report

I'd say it's a moderate report which is

actually kind of potentially good what

you want right now uh because you don't

want a horrible report suggesting we're

about to go into the hell of 2008 right

we've already got s p uh pmis and ISM

pmis that came in yesterday slightly

recessionary and people are starting to

get fearful that oh what if we're

walking into a recession we need to be

careful here so we have to be careful

what we wish for because if we keep

wishing for a recession then maybe

exactly that's or weak numbers then

maybe that's exactly what we're going to

get now the stock market is closed today

so measuring the response will be a

little interesting though I think we do

have Futures open so what what is

interesting here is this is a this is a

stable report however it does show that

decelerating Trend again we were at 311

last month now we're down at 236. the

fact that surveyors were within 6 000

jobs is actually pretty impressive given

that uh usually they're much more wrong

the average hourly earnings coming in at

0.3 as expected is fantastic that's a

sign that we are stable uh there is no

wage price spiral I've been pounding the

table on about no wage price spiral for

about six months though now so I I think

this is just sort of reiterating that

headline inflation for wage data at 4.2

so that's still Healthy Growth for wages

but by no means is it a sign that we are

having this sort of runaway inflation

which is uh which is a good sign we do

not want to see runaway inflation let's

now go ahead and look at the actual

report itself so we've got the actual

report right here and let's see what

we're looking at so this is at the

employment situation keep in mind this

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form.com meet Kevin total non-farm

payroll 236 in March unemployment rate

little change that is down that 3.5 both

the unemployment rate and the number of

unemployed persons at 5.8 million

changed little in March little net

movement since early 2022 among the

major worker groups Hispanic

unemployment decreased to 4.6 percent

essentially offsetting an increase in

the prior month the unemployment rate

for adult men was three four adult women

3-1 teenagers nine eight women three two

blacks five Asian two eight you've got

uh permanent job losses did increase by

172 to 1.6 million in March the number

of re-entrants in the labor force

declined by 182 000 to 1.7 a million so

fewer uh re-entrants into the labor

force that's potentially a sign that

you're seeing the fewer new hiring

re-entrants are persons who previously

worked but were not in the labor force

prior to the beginning their job short

search the number of long-term

unemployed those jobless for 27 weeks or

more was a little changed at 1.1 million

okay so little change in the long term

unemployed so despite all of those

massive layoffs were saying not seeing a

large take up here in the long-term

unemployed but then again the the job

losses that we've been seeing have

really only just started occurring so it

might be too early to see a change in

the long-term figure here

okay we've got labor force participation

rate continue to Trend up this is good

this is a sign that more people are

potentially coming off uh retirement or

off of uh unemployment checks uh right

or welfare and they're basically

re-entering the labor force which is

good although there are work

requirements for some of these jobs

covid has really made it easy to not

work the employment population ratio

edged up a little bit okay fine the

number of persons employed part-time for

economic reasons was essentially

unchanged so part-time unchanged I'm

really looking for differences here

inflection points the number of persons

not in the labor force Who currently

want a job little change at 4.9 million

fine uh we're also going to get wall

Street's reaction here in just a moment

to these numbers again so far I'd say

these numbers are pretty benign they're

not a sign that we're in a recession and

they are reiterating no wage price

spiral I personally actually think that

is the best case scenario that you could

wish for you don't want something to

terribly off expectations because then

it also casts more doubt on on

economists ability to do their job which

people already have little doubt in

anyway you just don't need to amplify

that even before 1.3 million here for

those marginally attached to the labor

force also little changed the number of

marginally attached to the labor force

uh or discouraged workers basically

um little change 351. supplemental data

so the non-farm payroll increased 236

compared to the average monthly gain of

334 over the prior six months so that

gives you a sign of some weakness and

Trend in March employment continued to

Trend up in Leisure and Hospitality

government professional and business

services and Healthcare we'll look at

the tables in just a moment look at that

Leisure and Hospitality hotels Resorts

uh skiing restaurants whatever up 72 000

jobs in March that's lower than the

average of 95 000 over the prior six

months so you are starting to get a

little bit of weakness uh in in this

finally a little bit of maybe turning

over a little bit of softening in the

job status but not depressive numbers of

jobs data that's good

employment and Leisure hospitality is

still below its pre-pandemic Levels by

368

000 and remember that's below levels

that's not below Trend that's important

think about that when they say that and

I think this is a very important

perspective and my goal on this channel

is always to teach perspectives that's

why I have entire courses on building

your wealth for teaching perspectives so

when when we have uh jobs data that uh

that shows Oh yay we have jobs growth

and then we have this big decline in

jobs data oh I accidentally unplugged

that and then all of a sudden we get

back to slightly below the level where

we were right so we're about negative

300 what was that 80 000 jobs or

something like that well that's that

might be almost back to 2019 levels but

what it's not is back to Trend levels

see at Trend levels you're probably down

about double that you probably still

have another 800 1000 jobs to go last

month we were down still about nine

hundred thousand jobs below trend for

leisure and Hospitality uh Health Care

is just back to 2019 levels uh and uh it

also below Trend so okay let's keep

going here government employment

increased 47 000 so the government is

employing I'm actually surprised that

you have Labor growth over here in

professional business services up 39 000

that uh the trend here is about thirty

four thousand so slightly above Trend

over here in professional business

services slightly surprised by that

Daniel Dickinson here says he's been

laid off twice in Tech once in 2008 and

once in 2020 yikes uh sorry to hear that

it's always tough layoffs suck

Healthcare added 34 000 jobs lower than

the trend of 80 or uh fifty four

thousand Social Services continue to

Trend up seventeen thousand in March in

March employment and transportation

warehousing changed little uh ten

thousand over you could have lot of

tension over here in warehousing oh

that's actually very interesting wait a

second warehousing and storage lost jobs

wait a second that's actually a really

big deal because

wow remember what we read yesterday

yesterday we started reading about this

and that was that as the economy weakens

I'll give you the quick synopsis on this

the state of freight as the economy

weakens what happens is more companies

leave their products sitting in

warehouses and now warehouses are full

we made this analogy yesterday of the

farmer basically filling up their Silo

and they could basically have a supply

glut a lot of supply and not put that on

the market because they're filling up

their Silo but now the silos are full

and the price is for new air housing are

going up and so what happens with a lag

well what happens with a lag is you get

a dump in prices people start dumping

their their supply because they don't

want to store it anymore well what did

this jobs report just do related to that

well this jobs report just told me this

warehouse and storages lost jobs that

actually reiterates the idea that there

is a lag in storage uh uh a deflation

basically and product deflation let me

let me simplify that here so if I write

this down here I'm going to say if

let's set some conditions if uh we have

Supply Rising

then you'd assume warehousing would also

become more expensive and more would be

hired in warehousing right let's make

that a little smaller here there we go

that is what you would assume you always

have to be careful with assumptions

because you know what assumptions do

right they make an asset of you and me

uh anyway so so this is interesting

because if we have more Supply then

there's more warehousing demand at first

but but at some point you face an

inflection and the inflection is where

people basically protest and say you

know what instead of storing even more

I'll just dump at lower prices

why is it when I touch this it's

something so sensitive there we go you

have this dump at lower prices now

that's actually very interesting because

it suggests that uh we could be seeing

more price reductions sooner than we

expect what did we just get at Tesla we

just got two in a row price reductions

on the model S and X now I personally

take no responsibility for that but I

will continue to bag on the model S and

X I do not think they are worth it am I

really nervous about that they've

dropped prices on those twice no not at

all they don't really move the candle uh

compared to the model 3 and Y sales

uh but it's a sign that this is what

businesses do as inventory piles up you

cut prices that's totally normal and

seeing now a softening in uh in in

warehousing that is actually just what

we want to see that's exactly what we

want to see uh to suggest that

deflationary prices uh are coming so I'm

excited about that okay uh let's

continue on here so warehousing a little

change uh or well slightly negative

they're calling it level changed uh but

again it's also not skyrocketing because

people aren't building new warehouses

employment and Retail train a trade has

little change it's negative fifteen

thousand job losses Building Material

garden equipment minus nine thousand

Furniture Home Furnishings down nine

thousand partially offset by job gains

in department stores plus fifteen

thousand retail trade employment little

changed over the year employment showed

little change over in in over the month

in other Industries including mining gas

extraction manufacturing wholesale and

otherwise us here's that average hourly

earnings point three percent that's very

good average work week for all employees

edged down uh this is it's good that

we're not seeing a massive plummet in

this but I will say this average hourly

work week this has been teetering for

months now it's been up and then down

it's been up and then down so I really

don't see it as that big of a deal to

continue to look at the average hourly

early hours week average hours worked in

a week don't see that as that big of a

deal uh bobbing up and down a tenth year

there that could honestly just be survey

based so uh let's see if we can get into

some of the tables and see what we have

for these uh and if we can get a little

bit more granular into the data I do

think overall this is an optimistic

report let me see if there what how the

bond market is reacting to this so if we

jump into the bond market

we're looking at let's see here okay

we've got uh Dow futures basically the

stock market's flat Dow futures up about

a tenth of a percent Nasdaq futures up

0.9 uh sorry uh s p Futures at 0.9 0.09

you've got Nasdaq futures basically flat

at uh 0.04 now uh you might be wondering

wait a minute Kevin how are Futures up

when the stock market is closed well

folks the stock market might be closed

but that doesn't mean future Traders or

weenie babies who take every day off

that they want I'm just kidding I don't

want to offend the stock market people I

actually really like the stock market

folks and I really don't do anything

with Futures so what am I doing here I'm

like betraying my side supposed to enjoy

your day off and your time with family

or something I don't know go enjoy

Easter or whatever it is you celebrate I

don't know what else happens in Easter

Passover there's other stuff anyway okay

so uh that's the

um and I appreciate you being here

either way okay that's the uh Bond okay

wait sorry that's the stock market let's

look at bonds so bonds actually Rising

slightly so you've got the 10-year

popping up to about

3.355 now that's actually a good sign

that we're sitting closer to stability

rather than a recessionary impact which

that's a very good uh so I like to see

that we do not want recessionary now let

me see five-year break evens have

modified at all and then we'll get into

some of the tables here

so

five year break even

all right five year break evens

so far are uh sitting roughly stable

although they may give me an update here

within the next two minutes here so so

far those stable but let's go ahead and

look at some of the charts that we have

Shelby so in order to do this we are

going to click a few buttons here there

we go button number one button number

two fantastic fantastic all right so

this gives us the unemployment rate

let's go through some of these others

here let's look at the household survey

as well just to compare actually that

would be a good idea let's jump over

here let's look at what the household

report is saying today

so household data

uh let's see the household I'm sure they

don't show us the actual number where is

the number in the household that okay

also go to the table table Alpha for

that okay no problem I will do that

standby

let's get back in over here then

all right so let's see here

they don't break it up as easily as

you'd think here to get the difference

between the household and the payroll

survey but I will grab it I want you to

keep in mind the difference between the

two the uh household survey is uh when

when they call actual individuals right

they call individual people and they say

hey are you uh employed right now and if

you have multiple jobs you're discounted

as one person whereas the payroll survey

calls businesses which does create a

potential for double counting uh

individuals and if you double count

individuals then you might have a little

bit of a misleading result

so uh it looks like the household survey

moved

wow that's actually a pretty large move

here the household survey went

up 577 000.

so 577 000 move in the household survey

compared to a 236

000 job in the job move in the payroll

setup this is likely because the

household survey has been very volatile

and trying to play catch-up to the

actual payrolls uh uh survey so I don't

necessarily see that as bad but is

substantially higher than the 177 we had

for households last time uh and then a

little lower than well actually a bit

lower than the 894 we had in January for

the households so I think you are seeing

some of that households catch up oh

that's not very entertaining

there we go let's get back to some

charts over here so silly

silly HDMI cables all right let's keep

going here

so let's look at this so we could take a

look at some charts I want to see

particularly if there are any

interesting ones here this will give you

the average

hours worked for different groups here

I'd love to see if we can get a little

granular in this this is manufacturing

so we could see manufacturing hours

worked declining off of those Peaks that

we saw in 2021 uh that's good durable

goods nice decline there as well those

are going to be like appliances uh or

other equipment

let's try computer and electronic

manufacturing also rotating down let's

go with apparel apparel actually up look

at that apparel manufacturing at a high

right now shout out to those Nike and

Lulu folks paper manufacturing do we

really care I mean we're not printing

money anymore so that number's going

down let's go with Machinery

Manufacturing

down on Machinery manufacturing

how about Appliance and electronic

equipment also rotating down and then

Furniture over here let's see furniture

and make it a little challenging to use

this chart there's Furniture seems

roughly stable all right and the other

particular employment uh let's try

employment by industry let's take a look

at this chart

all right so let's jump into

Construction

okay and let's take away the totals

there we go look at that construction

nice rise here been very consistent

maybe just topping out there on the

right maybe a little bit of a topping

out Leisure and Hospitality just so you

can see the trend that is a terrible

color also nice Trend directly up how

about professional and business services

yeah a little bit of a lower slower

inflection inflection point there so a

little bit of a Slowdown Financial

activities this is where you're really

seeing the uh a little bit of the

Slowdown you're actually getting that

negative inflection point all right

let's get it Information Technology

Information Technology also seeing that

inflection to the downside let's get uh

hmm how about just government in general

that's not too useful let's take a look

here and not very useful at all okay

Manufacturing

and let's get rid of government and

financial activities and just look at

Manufacturing

okay we can't

let's try again if we do this there we

go there's your manufacturing also

hitting sort of a

resistance level there if you will on

manufacturing it doesn't seem like yeah

construction is hitting that level

though is it yeah barely I mean maybe

just beginning but I think the charts

are somewhat useful in taking a little

bit of a glance at what's happening so

let's take a look at some of the Q and A

that we have I want to see what y'all

are thinking here

uh Tesla nominates former taxi JB

strawberry isn't he also on um over at

Redwood material I think so so let's see

here

while not our favorite scenario could

there be a silver lining with

stagflation I actually think this is

potentially a good scenario that this is

a I would not call this an unfavorable

scenario I'm optimistic about this this

is a an at an at expectations read I

mean look at what we have no wage price

spiral as we've been reiterating and

optimism around maybe the economy isn't

doing that horribly I think as as

investors a lot of folks right now are

of the mindset that we are likely to be

looking at a a terrible economy and

another 2008 that's that's certainly a

concern that a lot of folks have and

we'll go ahead and look at some other

reports as well but um yeah I'm not that

pessimistic Maybe