i'm throwing in the towel

what I'm about to say is a very

unpopular opinion although maybe it's

exactly what you're thinking it's

unfortunately not what a lot of people

want to hear right now because it is

very frustrating to think that it could

be a reality and I hate to say it but

after the data that we've gotten frankly

earnings over the last two months jobs

data we've gotten over the last two

months basically since I started

becoming a bit bearish right like March

I'm like oh this isn't good had a little

bit of a selloff in April it it was a

joke it was really just part of like the

whole volatile Nike Swoosh recovery

right uh and now we've got CPI data PPI

data retail sales data we've broken into

uh GDP reports we've gotten Rome Powell

multiple times what is the consolidation

of everything well that's what we're

going to talk about right now the

consolidation of everything over the

last two months everything that I've

been reading from institutions

everything that I base on my opinions

based on the data everything merged

together like if there's one thing that

just summarize the last two months what

would it

be of course it'd be that there's an

expiring coupon code tonight and a lot

of people have been asking for my p&l

the last 30 days so here it is and that

camera is really blurry and there's a

wire in the way but uh there we go so uh

there it is last 30 days a lot of people

have been asking about it yes the last

30 days have been great uh not every day

is great not every day is great I closed

some Hedges today if it weren't for

those Hedges I would have been green on

my trades today thanks to for that

amazing Fair day uh play we had an

Nvidia play anyway some other plays in

there but I did have a little bit of a

hedge today so my trading p&l for the

day uh because of the Hedge going into

CPI this morning uh did pull me negative

uh relative to yesterday it was a

fraction compared to the profit from

yesterday so it doesn't really matter

but people were asking about the 30-day

p&l and my Weeble that's the only place

I trade there you go uh other than when

I making adjustments in my long

portfolio but no what what really is the

point of this the point of this is to

say and this is

frustrating the volatile Nike Swoosh may

continue but not everywhere I think it's

going to be concentrated and I also hate

saying this but I think there is a

chance at least until we actually get

bad catalysts like bad CPI data uh bad

jobs data until we get something like

that the big stocks that are at all-time

highs might just continue their move so

let me tell you exactly which T tickers

I'm talking about specifically Microsoft

look at Microsoft for example uh

Microsoft we're knocking on the door

here of alltime highs I think over the

next 3 to four weeks as we wait for more

catalysts there is a potential reality

that we frankly just hit alltime new

highs and I mean new high highs on

Microsoft again again short of some

really bad

Catalyst I don't know we we had our

bleed we had our bleed the bleed I was

worried about in March we had the bleed

now the data has come in and it's it's

kind of washed the problems we had our

bleed on the cu's now we're at all-time

highs meta we had our bleed I actually

bought the dip on earnings I got

exposure to meta on that dip I'm like no

no no no this is a ridiculous dip so I I

and and I I never buy Facebook you know

meta uh but I actually did and I'll tell

I'll explain why uh Nvidia I was pretty

impressed I mean we we capped out around

3 and a half% today but we did have a

dip on Nvidia as well I mean look we ran

all the way down into the sevens we had

the dip the April dip came the dip that

I was worried about in March it came

problem is the dip came and went pretty

quickly it wasn't actually that sever of

a dip uh what's another one so we've got

Microsoft Nvidia Facebook Google look at

Google Google didn't really have a dip

Google had a dip in in February March

but not not that big of a deal look at

Apple uh Apple I've been buying that one

a lot around the 169 level and it's it's

rocking now that they're talking about

actually integrating AI new product

announcements WWDC buy the rumor sell

the news probably coming up we're in the

buy the rumor phase point of this is

this is very frustrating because I I I

don't want to be the guy that's like

yeah it just makes sense having exposure

to the biggest names that have the

biggest and fattest valuations but you

know why those are doing so freaking

well are they going to go bankrupt in a

recession no you know that are they

going to get the best talent in a

recession and fire the worst talent in a

recession

yeah do they care about higher for

longer interest

rates

yes but in which way they like it think

about this for a moment H for longer

interest rates who does It screw it

screws

entrepreneurs small businesses and

individuals well guess what that does in

reverse order the individuals are stuck

with the golden handcuffs at these

companies so they don't want to quit

because they got buy now pay later debt

and student loan Deb and credit card Deb

and car debt so they're stuck they can't

leave and it's tough to get another job

right now somewhere else

unless you want to have two full-time

jobs which the level of people working

two full-time jobs is at a record right

now so the individual is getting screwed

who benefits from the individual getting

screwed the big Mega capitalist

companies and I'm not trying to be like

a Marxist here and go we need social I'm

not doing that but but it's true the

higher interest rates screw the little

guy they also screw the entrepreneur

they screw the small business and quite

frankly they screw the interest rate

sensitive

competitors basically the ones who win

are the names that I just mentioned the

ones that are going to all-time high

these are the companies that win because

they have massive free cash flow they

use that free cash flow and park it in

treasuries and money markets and they

collect the high interest rates remember

Microsoft takes in somewhere around

twice as much in interest as they spend

in interest so what do they care if

rates are higher for longer they don't

higher for longer interest rates screw

the big guys competition and they force

their employees to stay at the companies

for longer and they're going to survive

in a recession that's why the indices

are basically at all-time highs because

they're so heavyweight the big boys now

people are like well wait wait a minute

wait a minute that that seems bad and

don't all the others at some point have

to catch up yeah they

should but if you go into a recession

first look everything will tank right

but the big guys they might go down 20%

and everything else will go down like

80% you know and obviously there's some

scale in there right that's if you go

into an actual recession if you just

keep rallying well you keep rallying to

the tune of basically earnings going up

and who has the ability to keep the best

workers and maximize their profitability

it's the big ones now to some extent

companies that rely like these big

companies that rely on a

consumer uh that is not an Enterprise

consumer they're going to have a little

bit more weakness so for example in my

opinion I mean Walmart reports tomorrow

but we'll see so we could just use

something like probably Target Etsy

Starbucks McDonald's restaurants local

restaurants red you know Red Lobster Red

Robin the Jamba Juices whatever A lot of

these companies are going to come under

pressure even Costco to some extent

they're going to come under pressure

although Costco stock has been doing

great um but they're hedged by their

subscription model they're going to come

under pressure because people aren't

going to be able to spend as much but

see one of the benefits that companies

like for example Microsoft have or metah

have is they're not solely rying on the

consumer they're actually also ryant on

Enterprise and so the other big

companies using the other big companies

keeps them safe we could even expand and

you could say a company like Oracle uh I

mean Oracle hasn't had as much of run as

some of these others personally I think

it's because 90 probably 9% of people

don't even know what Oracle is and

that's okay but you know here's just

another company uh or or even Salesforce

uh you know they've got a lot of

competition it's sort of the CRM space

their ticker is CRM after all but you

know these These are companies that do

collect from other Enterprise and as a

result

benefit from uh uh from from these

higher interest rates by proxy it's in

part one of the reasons that Del is

skyrocketing their AI segment which

benefits from other

Enterprises makes up like 2% of their

business which sure it might double but

again it's a fraction of their business

but simply because they have that

Enterprise exposure the Stock's

basically meming ever since Nvidia gave

them a shout out and since then

everybody's been begging a shout out

from Jensen you can't blame that but we

can look at something simple frankly as

the Bitcoin breakout to tell us that

folks we just broke the downtrend the

downtrend has ended look at this I go I

went bearish roughly in the middle of

March would you look at that it's when

Bitcoin popped out now we're breaking

out why are we breaking out because the

biggest and best

assets are just going to keep crushing

it now a lot of is still 5 and 1 half

six on the bullish scale right zero

being bearish 10 being full bull I

really like I don't see myself just

going oh that's it all into these Mega

cap names do I see myself maybe wanting

to pick up a little bit more exposure

yeah but I can't I can't go all in I

can't go Allin margin at how toppy

things are right now and maybe there's a

Black Swan Brewing that I just don't see

yet but frankly over the last two months

we've gone through a lot of

catalysts and they just haven't been

that bad yet now all of it can go to

poopy dupies really quickly we know that

things can change and flip-flop very

quickly but you've got a breakout on BTC

and you have right now a lack of bad

catalysts now what is your next one

we've been through this before you

should know the Catalyst C

calendar Nvidia is the next big catalyst

yes if they give us some horrible

forecast for AI they could all sell off

but frankly that might just be the buy

the dip opportunity because your next

real catalysts are the jobs data on the

7th and the FED on the 12th with CPI but

that's 3 to 4 weeks away and so we're

just going to be sitting here probably

watching some of these stocks just hit

all-time new highs over and over and

over again it's it's starting to feel a

lot like November of 20221 where Sarah

Eisen on the closing bell every day is

like and another alltime new high and

then the next day and another alltime

new high and the next day and another

alltime new

high why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in SEO

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P right there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your

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