Are Russia and China actually doing anything to support Cuba? | DW News

US military forces have boarded another

sanctioned oil tanker that fled the

Caribbean earlier this year. The

Pentagon released this footage of the

ship being boarded in the Indian Ocean.

The US Defense Department said the

vessel had defied President Trump's

so-called quarantine of sanctioned ships

in the Caribbean. Now, the tanker was

one of several that fled the Venezuelan

coast in early January after the United

States abducted the country's leader,

Nicholas Maduro.

Well, Maduro's kidnapping has left

Venezuela at a crossroads with people in

the country divided over its future.

>> On the streets of Caracus, government

sponsored billboards demand that the US

free jailed leader Nicholas Maduro. But

the people of Venezuela are more worried

about what their future will look like

and whether their livelihoods will

improve with their government now

answering to Washington.

>> Well, people are repressed. They want to

express their opinions

to demonstrate whether for or against.

There's always uncertainty and until

that's cleared up, everything is on

hold. Businesses, people, commerce,

everything.

I'm very happy that they're giving him I

don't know how many life sentences.

Because of him, my children are out on

the streets. And that's just one small

example. If the US is doing what they

say they're doing, then that's very

good. I hope the economy improves,

that's the main thing.

>> Maduro's political propaganda is still

everywhere in Karacas, and he still has

a hardcore of loyal followers.

>> We demand that the US government return

our President Nicolas Maduro to us.

He should be patient,

resist.

And the truth which will come to light

is that the world police had no right to

come here and kidnap him.

Though Karacas has returned to its

normal rhythm and daily life since

Maduro's capture, analysts say

Venezuelans are still hoping for real

change.

The reality of the matter is that there

are enormous expectations. It seems that

Venezuelans are finally trying to

understand where we're headed. There are

enormous expectations for political

change towards democracy in Venezuela.

>> As hope and skepticism sit side by side,

Venezuela's future remains very much

unwritten.

And Christopher Sabatini is a senior

research fellow for Latin America, US

and the Americas program at the Chattam

House Foreign Affairs think tank. He

joins us from London. Welcome to DW.

What if anything has changed

politically, socially in Venezuela since

the US kidnapped Nicholas Maduro?

>> Well, very little has changed in terms

of the apparatus of the government. What

the US essentially did was take Nicholas

Maduro and his wife, remove him, and

send them both to a Brooklyn jail where

they're awaiting a trial on uh charges

of cocaine trafficking and weapons

possession. The rest of the apparatus

remains in place. uh the president vice

president under Nicolas Maduro Delsei

Rodriguez simply became the interim

president and all the other cabinet

members remain the same including some

of the most repressive elements of the

Nicolas Maduro government. The interior

minister Dio Cavo is still actually in

in the ministry. uh the defense minister

Vladimir Petrino Lopez is also uh in the

defense ministry and the attorney

general who has been responsible for the

jailing of more than a thousand

political prisoners some of whom have

been released is still the attorney

general so very little has changed the

only exception is investment is starting

to trickle into Venezuela and that is

injecting some liquidity into the

economy it's propping up the currency

which was at the brink of collapsing um

but in the in the immediate terms

politically Very little has changed.

Socially, there's some hope, but

economically it's going to be a long

haul.

>> Okay. So, we have the US forcing Caracus

to sign oil contracts with US companies,

but what of regime change? What of the

imposition of human rights and democracy

and an end to political oppression?

Beyond those oil interests, are we any

clearer on US objectives in Venezuela?

>> No, we're really not, quite frankly. We

we saw Marco Rubio a few weeks ago

testify before the Senate Foreign

Relations Committee. Uh he talked about

three stages uh stabilization and

reconciliation and and then economic

recovery uh and then a transition to

democracy. Um the the latter one simply

isn't in the discussion right now. Uh we

saw an interview with Jorge Rodriguez

who's the uh brother of the now interim

president Deli Rodriguez. He's the

president of the National Assembly. Uh

it was conducted by Newsmax, a very

right-wing station. They get it was a

softball interview. Uh they didn't push

him on anything, but it was noteworthy.

He didn't mention anything about

elections. Wouldn't mention any of the

names of the opposition party leaders uh

in the interview and actually quite

frankly said if if the opposition can

come back if they don't engage in

violence, but what that what constituted

violence is not clear. So no, there's no

movement at all on democracy.

>> Okay. And so today we have the US

military announcing that it's seized

another tanker linked to Venezuela's

attempts to move sanctioned oil abroad.

Just how significant is this latest

seizure? And what does it tell us about

the state of Venezuela's oil industry?

Well, first of all, it tells us that

under US sanctions, Venezuela's oil

industry had basically gone dark and it

was relying on these pirate ships, uh,

often falsely flagships to transport its

oil, uh, to other markets, China, India,

uh, mostly. Uh, and so what Trump is

trying to do is enforce US sanctions on

Venezuelan oil. That sanctioned under

the past there were 500 million barrels

of oil that were seized by the Trump

administration. those were sold and that

money was deposited in a Qatari bank and

so far about $300 million of it went uh

to prop up or support and inject capital

into the Venezuelan market. I assume the

same will happen here. But what's

curious about this is this, you know,

for many Europeans who are looking at

this seizure of pirated oil, they're

looking at Russia. Russia has been

surviving uh on shadow fleets of oil

carrying it oil outside the US rather

international sanctions. This has

implications beyond Venezuela.

>> Okay, that's Venezuela. Christopher

Sabatini from Chattam House. Do stay

with us as we turn our attention and

your expertise to Cuba. We'll take a

look at this report and then come back

to you because as the US tightens its

grip on Cuba's oil supplies, the country

is beginning to feel the adverse

effects. Havana has warned uh that

foreign airlines will no longer be able

to refuel because of dwindling supplies

and some airlines have already suspended

flights to and from the island.

Meanwhile, the UN is warning of a

humanitarian crisis.

The steps of the University of Havana

are empty.

Universities across Cuba are closed.

School classes have been cut back and

transport slashed.

It's all part of the government's

emergency measures to preserve dwindling

fuel supplies.

These measures make me feel insecure

about what will happen with my

university semester. How will I be

graded? And if the virtual teaching

platform that we will have to use now

will actually work. Many students live

in remote villages with no electricity

or internet connection.

With oil supplies in a US strangle hold,

the country is grinding to a halt.

>> Havana residents queue for hours for the

few buses available to get to work.

Taxi rates doubled overnight.

I can't go anywhere. I've got family in

the countryside. I've got a trip to make

and everything's been cancelled. There's

nowhere to go. There's nothing. You're

stuck here. And what's worse is the

helplessness about what's going to

happen, what's going to happen, the

uncertainty.

>> Since the US blocked Venezuela's exports

in December, Cuba can no longer rely on

its ally for much needed jet fuel.

Without sufficient supplies to be able

to refuel in Cuba, a growing number of

airlines are cutting their flights to

the island.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheen

condemned the continued US threats on

Cuba.

You cannot strangle a people like this.

It's very unfair. Very unfair. So, I'm

calling for these sanctions to end and

for support to be given to the people

always.

>> Mexican ships are preparing to send

hundreds of tons of humanitarian aid to

Cuba.

Sheen is also considering how to send

oil without being penalized by tariffs

from Trump.

If Cuba does not get access to oil soon,

the UN says it is at risk of

humanitarian collapse.

>> Well, Christopher Sabatini from Chattam

House is still with us. Um, let's talk

about Cuba then. It has no oil and no

minerals. So, what does President Trump

want there?

This is really a pet project primarily

of Secretary of State Marco Rubio who's

CubanAmerican although his family didn't

flee Fidal Caster. They migrated to the

United States or immigrated to the

United States before. Uh but really this

this is an effort to remake the

hemisphere uh under the so-called Donro

doctrine by their own branding u more

aligned with US interest. So for Marco

Rubio the idea is to bring the end of

the Castro regime uh in in Cuba. It's

been in place now since 1959. For Donald

Trump, it's a show of force and a show

that he means business when it comes to

Cuba. So, it's ideological, but it's

also part of a larger projection of US

geopolitical power in the hemisphere and

globally.

>> Okay. So, end the Castro regime and

replace it with with what? Because is

there a credible opposition there?

>> That's a good question, Phil. There

isn't. Uh, you know, more than 60 years

of totalitarian government has crushed

civil society. there's no really

alternative political leadership. It's

unclear what will happen first. And the

truth is is in this particular case,

Marco Rubio and many Cubanameans view of

how regime change will happen in Cuba is

based on Eastern Europe and the former

Soviet Union in 1989 and 1990. But of

course, the embargo has and especially

now with the cut off of oil has really

crippled the state. It's left the

country very poor. what we could see

more than any regime change to legit

legitimate uh leadership is actually a

failed state and we're already seeing it

now. It's unclear whether the leadership

within Cuba will yield to the the uh

Trump administration's demands that it

step aside.

>> Despite that though, um we do know that

the two governments are talking. We we

know that from the the the weekend

Havana said we're open to talks. I

understand that uh discussions have

begun. What can you tell us about them?

What sort of level are they happening at

and what are they talking about?

>> We really don't know at what level

they're happening. There were some

rumors uh last week and over the weekend

that the uh Trump administration was

talking to Alejandro Castro who's the

son of Ral Castro. Supposedly that may

not have been true. So we don't even

know if they're meeting in person. Uh

supposedly and and quite frankly by

embargo law, the Trump administration

should be demanding a set of conditions

that were outlined in 1996 uh by the the

Cuban Democracy Act or Libertad Act. Um

and those are credible steps to free and

fair elections, the release of all

political prisoners, um and and then

freedom of expression and freedom of

association. But those would basically

kill the Cuban regime as it currently

stands. It wouldn't survive. So yeah, I

don't know how you begin negotiations

when you're basically asking a regime to

sign its death warrant um in in the

midst of a humanitarian crisis.

>> So a quick word then about Russia and

China, big Cuba backers.

What sort of intervention, if any, are

we expecting from them on America's back

door?

>> Phil, I don't think they would

necessarily weigh in for the first

reason. as you said, it's it's on the

US's back door. It's only 90 miles off

the coast of Florida. They have some

listening stations. They have some

surveillance uh infrastructure in Cuba

that allows them to listen in on the US.

Um they also obviously have inerson

spies in Florida. Um occasionally the

Russian Russian subs and boats will

dock. It isn't really that close a

relationship. I don't think if the

Donald Trump administration scores some

form of regime change, whether it's just

the removal of the leadership or full-on

regime change, we would see China or

Russia come to the defense of the Castro

regime. Uh quite simply because it it

they would have to yield to, as you

said, this is in the US's backyard. It

wouldn't really be productive to spoil

the broader relationship of the United

States simply over Cuba.

>> Okay. Thanks for talking us through that

so clearly. Christopher Christopher

Sabatini from Chattam House.