Final Thoughts - Fed Rug Pull TOMORROW.

well holy smokes tomorrow is fed day the

Atlanta fed real GDP now indicator now

sitting Folks at

3% this is still at least based on

current data a yes slowing economy but

at least based on the data it is still

strong so what are my final predictions

for what the Federal Reserve is going to

do tomorrow these are my final thoughts

so we're going to number them out number

one I think we get a 50 I'm basing that

on Dudley and former fed folks and of

course Nick te number two I think we're

going to get a Powell who acknowledges

and you might disagree with this but who

acknowledges that no we're not in a

recession right now but data has

weakened enough we just don't want it to

weaken more and that's why we're going

50 because things are good things are

strong but we don't want to become

complacent that's prediction number two

prediction number three is that barring

any changes in the data coming up

forward the summary of economic

projections now going forward is

probably going to forecast that while we

may start with a 50 we're going to go

down to 25s we might take that process

slowly while we're data dependent now

prediction number four is that stocks

actually which we've started to see a

little bit midday through trading here

already on the day before uh the FED

presser might actually start taking some

profits that is you might see a little

bit of red and selling pressure why well

because look at it you got a GDP at 3%

people were worried about recession but

the S&P 500 just hit all-time highs not

because of Nvidia pulling up but because

everything else is pulling up so the

Market's actually doing really well the

question then is okay cool if we're

going to be data dependent and that data

is still month

away is it potentially a time to take

profits well for hedge funds and

shorter-term Traders maybe for long-term

investors it's always hard to bet

against train America for the very very

long term but prediction number four is

that yes we get a unanimous decision

from the FED I actually think that power

will probably convince everybody at the

FED to go with

50 and in doing so we'll promise them

that he'll acknowledge that don't worry

we're going to make it clear that the

economy is still strong which does

create inflation risks which might mean

we have to even skip a meeting now that

might not be as ideal so you might get a

lot of whipsawing in the markets

tomorrow see if drone Powell pulls an

ECB which is part of my prediction

number four prediction number four is

Powell might pull an ECB you might say

look we're going 50 now but that doesn't

necessarily mean we'll have any rate cut

at at the next meeting we're going to be

data dependent and it's possible that at

the next meeting we'll do zero it's

possible we do 50 it's possible we do 25

and leaving that door open to a

potential zero at the next meeting isn't

going to be too enthusiastic and so I

think there's a potential you could

continue to see some profit taking now

that is for both bonds and stocks

because bonds have been rallying and

stocks have been rallying I mean some of

the positions that I've been placing

multi-million dollar bets on you know

they're up like 200 to 300 some of them

I mean in total probably somewhere

around like 400k some of these big

trades that have been making here and

we've been talking about it the course

of member lives they're pretty nicely up

in just the last few weeks and this is

fantastic but it's probably going to

lead to some profit taking the real

question for markets then is how much

profit taking is there going to be

between the FED meeting and the election

because if you have too much profit

taking you don't want to trigger a

recession uh which could happen if fall

too much and then you get more layoffs

now I do think jpow is aware of this so

because jpow is aware of this he's

probably going to air on the side of

trying to push markets up rather than

down but he doesn't know the answers and

I think as usual the market thinks jpow

has all the answers hello wow this uh

truck oh that guy's like texting here I

am talking about the guy texting but at

least I'm paying attention see I'm

handsfree filming a video that guy ain't

paying attention he just came like

flying into my lane Tesla didn't move at

all quick note on Tesla it looks like

they came out with FSD on the Cyber

truck today at least I got the update

pushed here that says 12521 includes FSD

for cyber truck which is great finally

but yeah you still got to pay attention

to this stuff but anyway

so folks uh I I you know obviously we

know we're going into election

volatility here uh personally I I don't

want to see a recession uh I hope

everybody can win and really I just want

to after the election just see markets

go straight up that would be great

because it just helps every startup it

helps house hack it helps stock hack

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pretty much cancel at any point uh check

that out over at stock .c but those are

my four big predictions on jpow so this

going in reverse order this this

potential that we actually get a

forecast of I don't know we might not

need any more cuts the economy is so

strong that one might take some people

by surprise and it could accelerate some

of that profit taking now am I go in

shorts or puts to go into this no way

man I have no idea this one's going to

be way too volatile if I was going to

trade what I might do is I might send a

trade between when the summary of

economic projections and the rate

decision comes out and when jpow goes to

talk because I do think if you get 50

and kind of a dovish summary of economic

projections japal might talk up how

strong things are in the economy right

now and how good the shot chances are

for a soft Landing but that opens that

door to him pulling that ECB I don't

know if we're going to cut rates at all

in November meeting and that's going to

be a little depressing to markets both

bonds and stocks now I'm not you know

running for cover on that like you know

I've got some positions and bonds am I

like oh I want to sell out of all the

bonds no I actually think you know the

the pain that you might see in the stock

market if he does that will end up

turning into lower yields because again

now you're pricing in more recession

risk but really if we can just get

through the next October November

December so 3 months if we can get

through the next 3 months no recession

really frankly no recessionary data

between now and the election and then

like get through a good Black Friday we

might actually be able to dodge over

recession who knows but that's what I've

been positioning for really since July

nothing's changed you know you'll

be it's like no my position hasn't

changed at all since July you know what

you know it's been Nike swo since

November of 2022 in July it went I'm

going to go short-term bearish until the

election

we'll see we'll see but it's just a

hedge anyway those are my quick thoughts

look we didn't even make it to 8 minutes

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Financial advice we'll see you in the

next one goodbye and good luck