Trump REJECTS Iran Deal | What Trump *JUST* Said.

Quick Wednesday morning update on what

Donald Trump just said regarding Iran.

Donald Trump plans to meet uh or hold

talks with Iran next week. He says, "We

may sign an agreement. I don't know. I

don't think it's necessary, but we may

sign a document or some form of quick

agreement." Now, Donald Trump suggests

that maybe we don't need an agreement

because the Iranian nuclear program has

been quote unquote obliterated. This

doesn't necessarily align with the best

case scenario that I was hoping we would

get. I was hoping and we talked about

this yesterday that regardless of what

actually ended up happening at the Ford

enrichment facility, which you know

everybody's talking about right now,

right? Donald Trump rejects the Iranian

nuclear program recovery report. This is

because you've got, you know, on the

right you've got people saying, "Oh,

it's just a really early initial report.

Nobody knows." You got Pete Hexath

saying you need a shovel to unberry for

site to see how much damage was caused.

You got Democrats saying, "Oh, Trump's a

loser. He didn't really accomplish

anything." I don't really think any of

that really matters. What matters is

that the United States made it clear

that we are willing to strike Iran in

the defense of Israel and it sent a

really big message to the international

community that hey, the United States

isn't going anywhere. Now, personally, I

was hoping we would get some form of

formalized JCPOA 2.0 with a different

name. The reason for that is you could

get really clear agreements that maybe

Iran won't conduct any uh uh enrichment

of uranium. Not only can you get limits

on uranium enrichment, but you could

also find out where those 300 pounds of

highlyenriched uranium are. We have no

idea where those are. the IAEA has lost

track of them and Iran has said, "Hey,

we're going to move these because, you

know, now we're being attacked by Israel

and the IAEA has lost track of them."

So, this isn't great because it

potentially emboldens Iran to know that,

hey, we got our enrichment substantially

done. We have our highlyenriched product

already. Now, we could further enrich

this and put it into a bomb. potentially

we can do that at a different site or a

non-damaged site or a site we don't even

know about in my opinion without some

form of a framework or agreement on IAEA

inspections and enrichment limits in

addition to opening up potentially some

uh oil exports which Donald Trump is

verbally doing for Iran to export oil to

China so that they can collect revenue.

So Trump is already doing that. But

without a written agreement, it's really

hard to measure the guard rails of, hey,

what is actually being done? Are we

actually following the agreement or is

Trump's memory different from what

Iran's memory is? So I think outside of

a written agreement, it's a little weird

for Trump to suggest, ah, we're just

going to have a verbal agreement. To me,

it's this is a little bit of a sign that

Trump doesn't actually think he can get

an agreement. Remember there's a

difference between a ceasefire and a

truce or an agreement. Uh back in the

day we've I mean year frankly at this

point a decade ago when the JCPOA number

one was signed under the Obama

administration we've previously had

ceasefire agreements but they don't do

you much until you have a real framework

in place that you can now verify is each

side holding up their end of the bar

their bargain. Basically, to me, this is

sort of like doing a real estate deal on

a handshake and then there's an issue in

inspections and people get to have

disputes or arguments. Oh, I didn't know

you were going to do all those

inspections or whatever. I don't think

it sets up for longlasting peace to not

have a written agreement here. And what

we do already know and and we expected

this as well is that this signal that's

being sent that the United States is

willing to get involved against Iran is

probably going to tighten the

relationship between Russia and China

even more as well as potentially Russia,

China, Iran and North Korea. In fact, a

lot of people are concerned that Iran is

now motivated specifically to get a bomb

because they might believe that if they

had a bomb, they wouldn't end up getting

attacked. Because think about it, out of

the group of four I just mentioned, the

Axis, so to speak. All of them have a

nuclear weapon. China has nuclear

weapons. They're adding about 100

nuclear weapons per year. Russia has uh

potentially the largest stockpile of

nuclear weapons in the world, more so

than the United States. Though a lot of

people argue that maybe only half of

Russia's actual stockpile is functional,

that they have older warheads. China has

only maybe about 3, four, 500 warheads,

whereas the United States and Russia

have somewhere between 5 to 6,000

nuclear warheads, but China is adding

about a hundred a year. And North Korea

also has nuclear weapons. Israel has

nuclear weapons. And so what we find is,

you know, Iran might end up being in

this position where they say, "Hey, you

know, well, China, Russia, and North

Korea aren't getting attacked by the

United States. Maybe it's because they

have a bomb. Maybe we need to take the

enriched uranium we have and get the

bomb, too." But what's fascinating here

is you you have this Wall Street Journal

piece that the war between Israel and

Iran has revived China's leader, Chinese

leaders interested in a pipeline that

would carry Russian natural gas to

China. according to people that's

because what you're connected by land,

right? Then you can avoid having to ship

through Arctic regions to other parts of

the world or you know other forms of

shipment that uh that that you know

might be land-based trains or otherwise

freight. But what you have is

uh we could potentially these attacks

could have potentially quote jumpstarted

projects that had been stalled for

years. And so we're really tightening

our enemies coordination amongst each

other. Mind you, Donald Trump has also

said in his press conference that he

just gave that he was just sarcastic

about ending the war in Ukraine in 24

hours. Of course, anybody who remembers

what Donald Trump says knows he wasn't

sarcastic. We know that he actually said

that if he's elected, the war between

Russia and Ukraine might actually end

before he's elected because he's going

to start having conversations with them

even before he's in office. uh and worst

case the war would be ended within 24

hours once he was in office. Now people

didn't actually really believe this. So

I could see how Donald Trump p paints

that as sarcasm after the fact. Uh but

you know he makes it clear like it's

been harder to negotiate with both

Sinsky and Putin. And this is I think

where you're seeing Putin and China sort

of entrenched together as this axis

that's very resilient against the

pressures of the United States. The

power of Serbia 2 pipeline project has

been merit in disagreements over pricing

and ownership as well as Chinese

concerns about relying too heavily on

Russia. But the war in the Middle East

has given Beijing reason to reconsider

the reliability of oil and natural gas

that it gets from the region. Keep in

mind the United States uh gets uh about

65% of its oil consumption domestically.

China doesn't have that benefit. China

bene relies heavily on the Middle East

for oil very much like what we used to

you know back in 2010 we would rely on

the international community for 71% of

our oil a lot of that coming from the

Middle East which is why a lot of people

say we got involved in you know the

Persian Gulf War uh dealing with Iraq

Kuwait this is why operation Iraqi

freedom occurred it's why we're involved

in Afghanistan it was all because of oil

fracking industry which that actually

blossomed uh under the Obama Obama

administration and then Trump won uh you

know really helped us become sort of

self-sufficient almost not entirely

obviously but much more self-sufficient

than we ever previously had been. So you

can see I mean these Chinese concerns

are actually quite reasonable. China

imports about 30% of its gas from

liqufied natural gas from Qatar and the

UAE via the straight of Hormos. This is

obviously there's been a lot of talk

about potentially the straight shutting

down this 20 mile choke point

essentially. Uh and I think China

realizes that hey we're getting so much

oil from Iran that if the United States

is willing to continue to attack Iran

which we just set the precedent that we

are then maybe China should be more

reliant on Russia rather than Iran. Mind

you Russia has also had challenges

exporting their oil. They've been

exporting their oil at a discount

because of sanctions related to the

Ukraine war. So, China is really picking

up cheap energy from Russia. So, a

pipeline could almost pay for itself.

But anyway, more than 90% of Iran's

exports now go to China. President Trump

made an unusual acknowledgement of

China's Iranian oil imports Tuesday

after announcing a ceasefire. China can

now continue to purchase oil from Iran.

Hopefully, they will be purchasing

plenty from the US as well. However,

this is unlikely given that you can

probably buy Iranian oil at a discount

given the sanctions that limit to whom

Iran could really sell oil. White House

official later said Trump was simply

calling attention to the fact that the

ceasefire prevented the disruption of

oil flows in the region. But even with

the ceasefire in place, the recent

conflict has spurred Beijing to cast

about for alternatives. Beijing is

looking to increase its oil purchases

from Russia, which supplies about 1/5if

of Chinese oil. And Moscow has been pro

pushing to boost its energy sales to

neighbors as it needs cash to fund the

Ukrainian war. This makes total sense by

the way. You really have a a substantial

wartime economy in Russia. And wartime

economies typically need outside funding

beyond just you know war funding because

your GDP is getting crushed from

consumption or or or other investments

into your domestic uh economy. Uh and so

selling oil is great. Of course, China

is a willful buyer because you've got

this massive population that that needs

cheaper energy. That's one of the

reasons why carbon emissions are

skyrocketing in China. But anyway,

Russian state media have linked tensions

in the Middle East to the revived Power

of Serbia 2 project. LG Armageddon,

China urgently returns to the Power of

Serbia 2 project, read one headline on a

Russian uh state news website. Power of

Serbia, a sequel to the original power

of SEC Serbia gas link that opened in

2019. has long been more urgent to

Moscow than Beijing. Russia lost its

biggest energy market when much of its

gas exports to Europe stopped after the

invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Moscow

became increasingly dependent on China.

So, Moscow will benefit bigly here from

this Chinese pipeline. But again, the

big thing that we're really doing here

is we're pushing these relationships

together. As you can see, I mean, this

is a great line right here. China is

also interested in strengthening its

relationship with Russia at a time when

the Trump administration is openly

discussing driving a wedge between

Beijing and Moscow. By the way, this is

the same thing that tariff war does, and

you can see the rest of this over at the

Wall Street Journal, but this is exactly

what tariff warfare does. It drives our

uh potentially our enemies or other

allies closer together while minimizing

the power of the United States.

something to consider in this this uh

part this sort of involvement that we've

now gotten ourselves into in Iran. It's

also worth noting that while Donald

Trump is not giving up on his maximum

power campaign on Iran, he's totally

willing to let Iran sell oil to China.

And he said that it's possible that in

the future we would end up seeing Iran

and uh uh Israel get back into a

conflict. Now he sort of said this in my

opinion as hedging rather than a

warning. Uh so uh the quote was conflict

between Israel and Iran could start

again perhaps soon. Trump did say that

but in the context that he said it, it

sounded like he was sort of hedging

rather than saying, "Oh yeah, there's

some kind of imminent spillover of

hostilities." Again, he seems very proud

of the ceasefire that he's currently

negotiated, even referencing how after

Iran accidentally sent a rocket, which

Iran denied doing, and they don't know

who sent the rocket, whatever. Maybe it

was a rogue soldier or whatever, but uh

after Iran accidentally, I guess, quote

unquote, sent this rocket towards

Israel, uh Israel scrambled about 52

jets to go attack Iran. and and Trump

was very proud to say that he called uh

on Israel to pull back these jets and

they did just to sort of maintain peace

and the ceasefire. But it shows you the

fragility of of this deal and again

outside of having

some form of written framework that

could be uh followed up on or vetted or

vetted or or otherwise. It seems to me

somewhat weak that Donald Trump doesn't

want a written deal. Again, he says he

wants to talk with Iran next week and is

planning on talking to Iran next week in

detail. Uh, but going in without a goal

for a written agreement just seems like

it's something that Iran is is

essentially going to violate straight

away. That said, you know, most media

will probably be very focused on these

intelligence reports with Foraux. Again,

I think it's less important because the

signals have been sent around US

willingness to get involved. And if Ford

isn't fully destroyed, it's entirely

possible we could just go back and

finish the job. Uh that's almost not

highly unlikely. Uh but uh

it, you know, it it is going to piss

Trump off over the next few few days,

especially as details of the actual

report come out. And I think one of the

unfortunate ways for or one of the

unfortunate things for Donald Trump is

that you could end up being in a place

where video ends up coming out of the

actual sites potentially undamaged or

less damaged than expected and that

could potentially hit Trump's

credibility some more. So we'll see what

happens. But uh overall it seems like

this uh Iran Israel conflict is really

enhancing uh the coordination between

China and Russia. And I don't know

that's necessarily a good thing for the

United States but we'll see. So, that's

the latest on Israel and Iran and what

Trump just said. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Pra there,

financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet

Kevin. Always great to get your take.