it JUST happened

Well, it's official. We have missed on

data. And no, I don't mean missed as in

the data came in low or high. I mean

literally the reports, the wire reports

that show us the data say there's no

data. It literally says weekly jobless

claims quote delayed by US shutdown.

Blank for numbers. August factory orders

delayed by US government shutdown. Blank

for survey actual results. priorities

all blank. Tomorrow, we're gonna get the

non-form payrolls from the same entity

that releases weekly payroll claims or

we're supposed to. And based on this

trend, we ain't going to get it because

we don't actually expect that the

government shutdown can end today

because it's a Jewish holiday today. So,

you can't get a government shutdown to

end today. Best case scenario, you're

going to get yapping on both sides. And

I hate to say it, but so far the yapping

doesn't exactly provide any confidence

that we're getting closer to a deal

given that Mike Johnson is just having

daily press releases talking about how

horrible the Democrats on. You can see

the by line there. Nothing to negotiate

on with the stopgap bill. At least

Donald Trump though is taking, you know,

the high road by Oh, wait. USDA.gov.

Due to the radical left Democrat

shutdown, this government website will

not be updated during the funding lapse.

President Trump has made it clear he

wants to keep the government open and

support those who feed, fuel, and clothe

the American people.

Oh. Oh, okay. Well, maybe he's taking

the high road on the HUD.gov website.

Oh, gez, there's a popup. The radical

left in Congress shut down the

government. HUD will use available

resources to help Americans. Okay, let

me close the popup.

Oh, the radical left in Congress shut

down the government. HUD will use

available resources to help Americans in

need.

Got it. Okay. Well, at least things are

getting better with Russia in the face

of us not getting data and being in a

government shutdown, right? Oh, US to

provide Ukraine with intelligence for

missile strikes deep inside of Russia.

There's a lot to put together here. A

lot. And we also got Tesla deliveries

which smashed this morning. But we have

to reconcile all of this and it's going

to take a minute. So let's try to break

all of this down one step at a time.

First things first.

Even though the Bureau of Labor

Statistics won't be providing labor data

tomorrow, which is when the coupon code

daddy's back expires for the meet Kevin

courses on building your wealth, that

coupon will still expire. In that alpha

report this morning, we and we even

talked about this yesterday. We talked

about a buy the rumor, sell the news

coming for Tesla. That's because even

though Tesla smashed, you have to

remember traders buy the rumor, sell the

news. And so expect a short-term dip on

Tesla. Now, let's talk about the actual

fundamentals of this delivery number and

how it sort of tells what it tells us

about the consumer.

Nothing about the consumer. It tells us

that right now people are wanting to

take advantage of a good deal. And the

reality is I myself am tempted to buy

Tesla solar panels right now because

there's a huge expiring coupon code. Now

we have expired a coupon code on Tesla

vehicles. the $7,500

vehicle tax credit is gone. And

understand a tax credit is huge because

tax credits are better than deductions

in that they actually help you offset

your taxes owed. So, it's literally

direct money that you can get now

without a $7,500 tax credit and Tesla

buying down financing rates to 2.99%.

They were buying them down to zero on

the Cybert truck, for example. You had

0% rates in Q3. So, you had zero APR in

Q3. You had $7,500 tax credits. These

caddies are now behind us, which is in

part why you're seeing some buy the room

or sell this. We knew this would come.

This is understandable. But the same

thing is happening in the energy sector

where energy tax credits, a 30% tax

credit for residential solar expires at

the end of the year. So technically, you

still got another quarter to go buy

solar panels or home backup batteries,

which frankly I was running the numbers

on. If your electricity bill is pretty

high, you know, we got a where we're

running our AI servers for house hack,

our electricity bill is like a,000 bucks

a month. It's a lot. Uh and and that's

actually like for the servers we're

running actually decent because we're

just not running that much other

electricity. Uh, and so what's really

interesting is if we put in solar panels

with Tesla and, you know, backup battery

or two, we'd probably get like a 17% ROI

by, you know, reducing our bill 80%.

Just kind of cool. So, it makes sense

why people are like wanting that 30% tax

credit, boost your ROI. That said, this

is like short-term stimulus into a

really weakening economy. ADP numbers

that we got yesterday were absolutely

terrible. Economists are missing so

badly to the point where the numbers are

just worse than even the economist's

worst expectations. This is a sign that

consumers are spending,

but will it last? And that's the big

question. As long as people have jobs,

yeah, the spending will keep going,

which is great. But what happens when

those layoffs come? That's what

everybody's worried about. This is old

news. Challenger job cuts report is

telling us something about the consumer

that's very interesting. The challenger

job cuts report this morning, which is

typically very volatile. Shows you sort

of we had a decline here in job cuts

announced. Now, obviously, the White

House is announcing that we're going to

have thousands of layoffs at the federal

government, but let's ignore the federal

government for a moment. Where are we

seeing job cuts announcements? Well, the

big ones that are odd at this time of

the market or or this time of sort of

the season, retail. Retail cut 86,000

jobs through September, up threefold

from the 28,000 announced the same

period of last year. And they made a

note here, now is typically the time

when we see retailers bulk up for the

holidays. But so far, plans have been

slow to come, reflecting caution with

low consumer confidence about tariff

pressures ahead. This to me suggests

that those with money, those exposed to

assets, they keep spending money. But as

we've seen for the last few years, that

lower income individual in America is

spending less and it's leading business

to say, "Maybe we don't want to hire as

many people for this holiday season."

You're seeing that in the challenger or

drop cut numbers and you're seeing that

in the consumer confidence numbers. And

at the same time, we're now playing

monkey see no evil, monkey here, no evil

with the actual data that's supposed to

give us a green light uh for the Federal

Reserve to know are we soft landing or

not.

At the same time, this talk about Russia

just increasing increases escalation

fears around potentially World War II,

which people don't want to hear about.

Now, you might not already know this,

but the United States already provides a

lot of CIA intelligence to Ukraine for

targets, for targeting Russian

positions. Basically, when the Russians

advance, and even before the war began,

the CIA is really good at that. Hey, you

know, there might be a weapons depot

here. There might be a missile over here

you could use. We're not going to push

the big red button, but uh just saying

Ukraine eats this up, which makes sense.

Look at our GDP relative to to to

Ukraine, you know? I mean, we are a

thousandx the size of Ukraine. So, of

course, we have intelligence.

However, prior administrations and

especially the Biden administration have

generally rejected the idea of providing

intelligence to strike within Ukraine or

within Russia because it expands the

potential of World War II. This is why

Elon Musk cut Starlink service to the

border of Ukraine and Russia because

Elon Musk doesn't want Ukraine using

Starlink to guide drones deep into

Russia. Well, this now changes with

Donald Trump getting pissed finally uh

at Putin. A lot of people in the Wall

Street Journal commentary section and

the little comments down below, they're

actually like, "Yay, finally Donald

Trump is growing some balls and and you

know, escalating uh the situation with

uh Putin suggesting that we might send

barracudas, which apparently barracudas,

we were studying this a little bit.

They're 500 nautical mile range missiles

that could carry 100 plus or minus pound

bombs. These are pretty big. Not as big

as like the the 500lb bombs or 2,000lb

bombs that were a big issue for Israel

bombing uh Gaza with, but you know, 100

pound bombs, these are huge. 5gs of

maneuverability. They could loiter for

120 minutes. Loitering, by the way, is

the this idea that bombs that you send

uh can just hang out and circle. So like

you launch them into an area, they just

hang out and wait. Uh so that way

multiple bombs can get into position at

the same time and strike their targets

at the same time. This is kind of like

how Iranian scientists get taken out all

at the same time. You lob bombs up into

the air and then you kind of have them

all hit at the same time so nobody has

time to get into bomb shelters. It's

crazy, but it definitely increases the

risks of World War II, especially since

the Kremlin is now we're not just

talking about tomahawks anymore. The

Kremlin is saying if tomahawks are

supplied by uh by the US to Ukraine,

then it will mean a new serious round of

tension. and uh Russia will have to give

an adequate response. So Russia's

already sort of front running this

saying, "Hey, we're going to have to

respond if you actually help them strike

deep inside of Russia, not only by

giving Tom or Barracudas, but by

potentially, you know, giving them the

the not only the weapons, but the

intelligence to actually pull it off.

So, we're in a really crazy environment.

At the same time, usually when the

government shut down, it's a buy the dip

opportunity. We we all know that it's

almost always a buy the dip opportunity.

The only way it wouldn't be a buy the

dip opportunity is if we don't get a

jobs recession, but now because of the

government shutdown, we don't have jobs

debt. So, it's kind of like, all right,

so what do we do in the meantime? I kind

of personally think you party until the

government opens again. you know, we got

institutions woke up to a little bit of

selling this morning. You know, we

usually when the market opens, this is

the institutional reaction function,

right? Uh and so, you know, we were

talking about, hey, like, you know,

there's an opportunity for an uptrend

trade here throughout the day. Uh in the

course member live stream this morning,

which we do every day the market is

open, we're like, there's an

opportunity, you know, this

institutional selloff stops, there's an

opportunity for an uptrend trade. Uh,

and remember Tesla's by the rumors, tell

the news partly because we're in a

monkey sea, no evil situation. We won't

actually have government data until the

government reopens, which means the

longer the government stays shut down,

the longer the rally can go. And it's

like the opposite of what's happening on

the ground with consumers with, you

know, consumer spending in August

holding up and the summer holding up,

but the leading indicators, whether

they're challenger or job cuts reports

with retail sales or confidence measures

suggesting a little bit of, hey, people

might be running out of money going into

the winter. This is where we get to a

very interesting point.

Markets are enthusiastic that the

Federal Reserve is going to use ADP data

to give us rate cuts. Markets are now

pricing in about 1.86

to 1.9

set of cuts for the year. This is a lot

better than what we had yesterday before

the ADP data. We weren't pricing in as

many cuts. We were bobbing around, you

know, for a period of time. One and a

half cuts for the year, 1.7 cuts for the

year. So really what you got is all of a

sudden this boost of rate cut

expectations. We're now guaranteeing a

rate cut for October 29th and we think

there's over an 87% chance of a rate cut

for December 10th. Markets are

enthusiastic about that. We love the

idea of rate cuts. It's bullish.

But we didn't get really a good buy the

dip opportunity from the job cut or the

uh the government shutdown because you

really have a market that's like no bad

data, no problem. This is a stage of

euphoria. And so I want to I want to

reveal something. I briefly revealed

this this morning in the course member,

but I want to reveal something that that

I haven't revealed before because well I

just did it. Um, but I just paid off my

home. And I think a lot of people who

hear that, who know me, are like, "What?

When does Kevin pay off 30-year debt?"

Like, Kevin doesn't like paying off

30-year debt.

But we're in an environment where I wake

up every single day and I'm like, "Oh,

damn. I've got millions of dollars in

Nvidia shares." And I look and I'm like,

damn, up another one and a half%. And

it's like every freaking day, 1 and a.5%

on a $4 trillion company. And I'm like,

wow. I I I keep telling everybody in the

course member live stream, I'm like, I

promise you I am I will sell this sucker

so damn fast and I will pay the taxes on

it soon.

And I like I will send an alert. You

will get an iPhone alert. You'll get an

Android alert. You'll get a you know I I

don't know you'll get alerts everywhere

we send the alerts over the course of

our live stream when I dump my Nvidia

shares. Uh but it's coming. I will be

dumping these. But the point is like I

wake up every day I'm like this is

insane. A $4 trillion company keeps

giving me more and more money every day

to the tune of tens to hundreds of

thousands of dollars. And I'm like this

is crazy. And I think we are in a bit of

an environment of euphoria where we're

ignoring

jobs data and trying to justify jobs

data that's turning to to SH90. Okay?

It's really bad. The jobs data is really

bad. We went from listen like think

about this for a moment. If if you were

just reading a textbook and somebody

told you, "Hey, so average job gains in

this economy are 150,000 per month."

We'd be like, "Okay,

that sounds good." And then what if I

told you, hey, average job gains fell

from 150,000 per month down to 35,000

per month on a four-month basis, 49,000

per month on a three-month basis, and

leading private payrolls reports suggest

we're negative. You'd be like, "Oh,

well, according to the textbook, damn,

use going into a recession."

you know that that's what we would look

at if we like zoomed out. But here we

are waking up to our Nvidia shares day.

We're like, "Oh, I'm making money. This

is great. This is intoxicating." And and

we're like, "But the job numbers are

bad." And we're like, "Immigration's

down.

Chub's kicking out all the illegals.

There's no recession. It's fine." It's a

little bit like we're rationalizing why

there's so much money being made, right?

And so that makes me nervous.

So, while like I have these shares, I'm

also like, you know what? If I pay off

some 30-year debt, I can use those as a

piggy bank. So, I I pay them off. It

limits my euphoria, right? I'm not I'm

not going to be on this like insane

euphoria train. I'll take some, but I

don't need to FOMO to the point where

I'm in margin or I'm being unsafe

because when a recession hits, it hits

hard and fast often. And I want to be

prepared to go, hey yo, refinance

everything when rates fall. I don't want

to get stuck leveraging up to the tits

when valuations are high and then, you

know, hits the fan uh and and then I

can't refinance because I'm upside down,

right? Like I don't want to be in a

place like that. I'm not saying that

would be upside down because that would

imply, you know, a larger drop in real

estate prices, but I'd rather be

conservative. Like I look at this, I'm

like, you know, I maybe it's maybe like

24 year old Kevin would have never paid

off his home mortgage.

Now I'm like an old man. I'm 33 now. I

got seven kids. My shorts are getting

shorter by the minute. like my short

shorts that I'm wearing. I don't have

any shorts in the stock market. Uh and

yeah, I I don't know. I like I I love

what's going on in the market, but then

I'm also like, man, this is this ain't

going to last. This is literally like

Warren Buffett's warning, you know? Uh

what what's the Warren Buffett warning?

Oh, I I think I wrote it down somewhere.

But basically, it's the u uh it's it's

like the last stage of grief or whatever

in uh in a you know, sort of like the

the euphoric cycle of the stock market.

Where is it? I don't think I can find

it. But but anyway, Warren Buffett, you

know, he's got the Buffett indicator.

The Buffett indicator, I think we're

sitting at, you know, probably the most

insane. Oh, here it is. It was this guy.

Uh it was Leon Coopermanman says we've

reached the stage of the bull market

that Warren Buffett warned about. He

says once a bull market gets underway

and once you reach the point where

everybody has made money no matter the

system he or she followed a crowd is

attracted to the game that is responding

not to interest rates or profits but

simply because it seems to be a mistake

to sit out on stocks. That is a banger

right there. That is a freaking banger.

But think about that. It basically says

because everybody's made money,

everybody's willing to go monkey see no

evil monkey hear no evil on data because

everybody's making money on all their

strategies. So, you know, everybody's

making money uh on on, you know,

whatever Nvidia or Tesla or whatever. It

doesn't matter that, you know, now we're

going to have to price in substantial a

substantial margin decline for Tesla

vehicles and we'll likely have the

lowest sales deliveries ever in Q4 for

Tesla vehicles and Q1 will be even

worse. Nobody cares about that because

again, once you've reached the point

where everybody has made money, no

matter the system he or she followed,

the crowd is attracted to the game. We

don't care about profits or

fundamentals. We care about the fact

that it feels like FOMO to miss out on

stocks. I mean, look at the uh the

Buffett indicator chart. Buffett

indicator chart. This is a good one. And

um yeah, here you go. So, current val

currentvaluation.com

did this. And this is where we sit.

We sit at the highest point we have ever

been historically. We Oh, I love this.

69% higher than the long-term trend

line. Damn, this is crazy. Again, I love

it because I'm waking up every day to

free money, but I'm also cautious

because when the government opens up,

we're going to get the jobs data. That

jobs data

hopefully says, "Go, don't worry.

Everything's fine. We've stabilized."

But we have to be prepared for the real

reality that the reason Donald Trump

wants to keep this government shut down

is not only to go fire a bunch of people

in the government so Mr. Vote can do his

heritage foundation project 2025 job is

basically project 2025 payroll

but Donald Trump also gets to hide the

jobs data for longer which is basically

exactly what he wants. uh it keeps the

euphoria going, which is fine, but I

can't help but feel we're on a level of

fugazi. So, again, if you're in uh the

Mi Kev membership, you'll know when I

dump Nvidia. In the meantime, what we're

doing is we're looking at stocks that

have there are two stocks that we've

been looking at fundamentally that have

recent uptrends that are fundamentally

dirt cheap technical support,

fundamental support, uh, and and

near-term catalysts that we think are

really great plays. Uh, and, uh, they're

not on my top 10 stocks to buy. So, I

have a list that's like top 10 stocks to

buy. We're on five out of 10 of those.

So, we got five more coming. But these

two plays are like, you know, trades for

the next six to 12 months and they're

juiced. Uh so, make sure you're part of

uh use that coupon code expiring

tomorrow. Daddy's back. Remember, you

get all the trade alerts. You get uh all

of the uh memberships. You get lifetime

access. Uh you get all eight courses. A

lot of new lectures coming out. People

say it could be taxdeductible. You pay

once, you get stocks, you get real

estate investing, you get sales, you get

do yourself property management and

rental renovations. New lectures coming

out for this as well. Uh cuz we've

changed some of the colors that we're

now using uh with with house hack. So

you you'll get insight into those.

Social media, productivity, trumpics,

the wealth plan library. It's pretty

good. Let's check that out over me

Kevin.com knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Pafra there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.