I Quit | The Great Reset & "Recession" Trap may be Wrong.

everyone me Kevin here well well well

it's time to talk about the great reset

or the great flip-flop as we like to say

well then again actually I think I'm

usually pretty remarkably consistent I

think title readers disagree but I've

been Nike Swoosh all since November of

22 until about July of this year uh

briefly in April I wasn't super happy

with where some of the AI evaluations

were going in I mean we saw what

happened to Super Micro and Dell so that

happened uh you know the summer we saw

what happened to Celsius and uh you know

we saw what happened after Robo taxy day

but you know the long ter term is still

very bright for these

companies uh what we have to talk about

now though is you know what happens in

the meet Kevin reset the great to reset

where the world ends because of

geopolitical issues or the presidential

election and or you know straight up

depression what what ends up happening

well there's also just the possibility

about markets just potentially

continuing to go straight up and so we

have to discuss and explore the

potential of just straight up being

wrong with a bearish narrative so let's

get a few things out of the way first

I've got a really big reposition I'm

working on and I want you to hear about

it uh that is going to be probably a

three to maybe 5 million doll position

could be as much as 6 s i I'll probably

grow it over time

over the next 3 to 6 months or so uh but

first before we talk about that let's

address this potential of just being

wrong about being bearish and I want to

hand out credit here first of all uh

just oh hello there's a dog wow um I I

just want to hand out credit to to all

the people who do frankly fantastic

research on geopolitics uh or the

election there's so much information out

there there to study uh and so much to

read up on and it's not that easiest to

consolidate at all I always try to do my

best to bring you a Consolidated version

on the channel so subscribe if you like

that uh but I actually do not believe

that

geopolitics uh in opposite of Jamie

Diamond are going to lead to any kind of

Black Swan or crisis I know Iran can

seem insane but let's just be real the

clearest of day signals you need that

they're not fully insane is that they

communicated their coming strike to the

United States and communicated with when

it was over and then actually stuck to

what they said obviously they could have

lied but you know then they could have

gotten nuked too by the way and maybe

this is old news but I don't think

Russia is going to lead to any kind of

crazy geopolitical Black Swan uh I think

we're we've all unfortunately gotten

used to this over two and a half year

long War now and just going to keep

being a war of attrition yes there are

worries about China invading Taiwan but

not while they're trying to stimulate

and get themselves out of depression yes

I I know they're doing drills around

Taiwan they'll keep doing that of course

they have to they have to put the face

on but it ain't geopolitics and look you

know me if you're part of the course

member live streams we study earnings

calls on a daily basis we know it's not

going to be

inflation mostly because companies are

telling us there's no inflation there's

no pricing power left and I'm talking

about all walks of companies it's very

very rare to see price increases still

happen so another reason why I'm you

know the opposite of Jamie Diamond

approach on this but then again I

suppose it's possible or wrong I mean

markets right now are positioned for no

Landing in the stock market meaning no

recession and a Resurgence of inflation

hence gold being so high I actually

still at this moment think both of those

are wrong I think that well I do have

exposure to gold which I'm happy about I

think it's nearly topped out I don't

think the inflation narrative will

continue I think we'll actually have

more of a deflationary narrative uh we

just saw you know oil prices Plum at 4

5% uh in the last you few hours here but

we'll talk about that in just a moment

regarding Iran uh and Israel uh and then

frankly I mean unless all of a sudden

companies start having some kind of

pricing power

again there's no inflation right now of

course you'll always have a little

volatility but anyway back to the video

and so now in response Israel has

suggested okay fine we won't strike your

nuclear enrichment facilities with you

know

30,000 pound bunker busting bombs Top

Gun style and we won't start World War

III as much as it feels like that's

what's going on in the Tinder Box of

frankly the Middle East right now uh I

don't think geopolitics is going to be

what takes this economy down so that's

that's off the list for me I also really

don't think election volatility is going

to change much mostly because it seems

right now for the economist and other

researchers as well there's probably a

75% chance we're going to get a split

house uh and uh Senate uh and so I I

really don't see politics changing that

much now I know there are a lot of

really hardcore uh Democrats or

Republicans who really want uh KLA

Harris or Donald Trump but I'm talking

stock market wise usually post elction

uh we tend to see more certainty rather

than than less certainty uh and so I'm

actually a big fan of believing that you

probably remove that as a catalyst I I

don't see that as being the big Catalyst

that sort of takes this Market down uh

and uh then of course we have to talk

recession risk now before I do I I want

to say that what I'm going to do and

this is part there a few reasons for

this but I'm going to go through a

little bit of a meet Kevin reset and

then we're going to talk recession risk

here I'm going to go through a little

bit of a meet Kevin reset what that

means is I'm not going to be posting uh

live streams course member lives or

videos until at the earliest uh October

21st on October 21st I plan to reveal uh

my big investment so mark your calendar

for that it'll probably be in the

morning of October 21st so when you wake

up check for

it uh that said I um you know mark your

calendar for October 21st but um I I

want to take some time with my seven

kids my five babies that are not coming

on a vacation with me that I'm going on

soon I want to spend time with them

before I leave and then I want to spend

time with my boys without constantly

having to be attached to my phone to get

updates and news like I usually do it's

it's kind of like exhausting I think is

the easiest way to put it so a little

bit of RNR time uh and it's also going

to be a time to celebrate 30 days of uh

no alcohol that uh is actually October

21st will Mark the 30th day so October

21st is going to be pretty special it's

also 5 days before Ella and Claire's one

year birthday which is incredible that

they're already won it's crazy but this

is why I want to spend time more time

with them this week too before I go on a

trip uh before their birthday I'll be

back for their birthday of course so

that's the meet Kevin reset okay so I

will be back uh sometime after the 21st

I will be posting a video with my

portfolio uh investment update uh on the

21st that is going to be this larger 3

to 5 million investment we'll talk about

that on the 21st and the details of that

uh and then I'll still be on my vacation

so it'll still be a few days before I

come back to regular live streams stay

tuned for uh when that will be the

return will be okay so now let's talk

about the recession thesis look back in

2007 uh just like in thec bubble every

body always says this is just a

normalization this is a soft Landing the

Federal Reserve has saved the day

they've already capitulated with a 50bp

cut and frankly there's nothing to worry

about things are just going to keep

hitting alltime highs alltime highs

alltime highs and you know what maybe

they will I personally think it's highly

unlikely because of our evaluation sit

but what I'm going to do is over the

next two weeks while I'm gone I'm just

going to also put my head into reading

not like headlines and news but I'm just

going to go deep to research I'm going

to watch some of these initial earnings

that come out over the next uh week and

a half to two-ish here and uh what we'll

do by the way get yourself a segue these

things are freaking awesome love these

things um by the way uh this is the

playground where I made my first uh

YouTube video on uh meet Kevin that uh

pushed me over a th000 subscribers which

is kind of crazy actually think I went

down that slide which is also kind of

cool uh but anyway uh

let's see was that graffiti a oh that

doesn't look appropriate might get

demonetized with that anyway uh

so could we be wrong about recession of

course you know if if all of these

company earnings here in Q3 are great

and the higher end consumer and even the

middle income consumer is still doing

great and spending money they're not

losing their jobs or if they're losing

their jobs they're getting a new job we

don't need to have a

you know this could just be sort of this

postco double dip normalization I

suppose uh it it's a little weird you

know you had construction job openings

plummeting and then they Revis it away

you had two qus of negative GDP last

year sorry in 2022 and then they re

changed the definition you have uh

really bad jobs data in July and August

and then they revise it better so it the

data is really really noisy and the

problem that I have is I feel like I've

only been a bear for what 2 months now

or so uh and I'm such a train America

person that I generally uh love just

being invested in train America and this

is why I'm really excited about my

Monday update where I can share with you

a huge train America update again mark

your calendar for October 21st it's just

not like just not like an expiring

coupon code for the courses okay like

you could use coupon code Art of War if

you want uh it's not an expiration on

that either right now honestly I just I

want to be like super no pressure and

just chillaxed here with y'all but uh

sure look the concern that I have is

that layoffs will ultimately eat up the

limited job openings that we have and

frankly the velocity of uh people

spending less starting at the lower end

consumer will trickle up you don't have

to look far to see the lower end

consumer struggling and you're going to

see more examples of that we just had

the rich Banks but I want you to see

what happens with City with synchrony I

want you to see what ends up happening

uh I mean you could look at AutoZone you

could look at restaurant performance

like all of these are really suffering

because the low-end consumer is just

getting absolutely fogged uh and so is

that going to be enough you know when a

lower-end consumer spends yeah I don't

know $5,000 less per year and then that

translates into you know velocity of

money factor

$25,000 in the economy that's spent less

multiplied by however many lower-end

consumers call it I don't know 70

million or whatever uh okay you know

what does that turn into that's 1.7

trillion which would remove about 7%

from GDP in other words you'd go

negative in 2025 but we're not seeing

that right now with GDP estimates now

GDP estimates could be revised down but

we just won't know with a lot of this

data until it actually happens and

that's why recessions are so weird where

it's sort of like there's no recession

there's no recession there's no

recession there's no recession oh my

gosh we're in a recession

that makes it challenging uh and so I

you know I'm not I'm not short stocks

I'm not short NASDAQ or Tesla or

whatever and I'm all a big fan of people

making money trust me it's it's way

easier to just be like all in because if

you're a bull and the market goes up

everybody loves you if you're a bull and

the market goes down people still love

you because you're telling everybody

it's going to be okay I just can't help

myself I feel

like not only with what we're seeing

with the trory of layoffs but the fact

that we've just tightened the economy

even more and what's in the last Labor

report which was all fugazy along with

manufacturing getting

slaughtered I can't help myself I feel

like a serious bear and I just want to

be honest with everybody so I'm going to

take the next you know week week and a

half uh and really analyze that for you

know the next video a great flip-flop

I'm just kidding no you're going to see

um on o October 21st a really big move

that uh that uh let's just say uh I

think uh uh will be very very powerful

uh and I'm very very excited about it

but um that's October 21st in the

morning that's Monday but anyway uh I

don't know let me know in the comments

what what do you think like where's your

head what are you seeing out there

because I do see a lot of comments from

people that say Hey you know at my job

we've never been this slow in 10 years

and 15 years I mean people are B

basically comparing back to ' 08 with

how much things are starting to adjust

and shift uh and and that that is caused

for concern In fairness so it's also

possible that my bare thesis is just

really early I mean you know if I'm a

big business I'm thinking to myself well

I'm going to keep employees until

December 31st to get through the holiday

sales season and then do layoffs in

January in February yeah you I mean I'm

not planning any layoffs at my companies

I'm just saying like if I'm a really big

maybe maybe that's what people are

thinking I don't know uh I suppose

that's

possible uh so that you know could then

delay job numbers that are bad until

February or March uh you know when the

reports come out and uh and then by the

time you actually get a few consistently

bad reports you know maybe it's the

summer of next year I I

don't I had to pay attention when I go

down this thing so who knows I guess uh

but let me know what your comments are

down below I um I feel bad because I uh

I do like the routine and I'm still

going to wake up early but I do like the

routine of doing the market open live

but uh I can't help myself but feel like

I owe it to you to just really put in

check all of my content and make sure

that it's aligning with uh what the most

truthful uh scenarios are out there I

mean I think I'm truthful every single

day but uh you know I really want to

Triple down on on the research at the

same time as take a break catch up with

the family celebrate that 30 30 days

it's actually a big deal feel pretty

good uh weight challenge is going good

too uh and then uh the workout challenge

starts soon too so that'll be cool I'm

doing this psychological thing where I

have a challenge uh with someone else in

the office you got to lose as much

weight as possible Right lose as much as

you can uh in and see how much you can

grow after that uh except you got to

grow it back with muscle uh so that'll

be really cool yeah I'll miss you uh I

don't really want to end the video

because I just feel like we connect like

on a daily basis and even if you just

inverse trade me or you know you you

just listen to me for perspective that's

the whole point I don't want to bring

you crap that you know everybody saying

the same crap all the time because then

what's the point I'm not sharing any

value uh but I really want to double

triple down on making sure that uh I'm

in the right headp space to get you that

best value uh and then I also have the

best research to back it up so we really

know what we're getting into so stay

tuned buckle up appreciate you being

here use Art of War if you want to watch

some more meet Kevin and see all my sort

of crazy ideas like chaos theory and

investing real estate investing how to

get wedge deals you know I teach it all

do yourself Property Management how to

make YouTube videos the 5 minute edit uh

the uh zero to millionaire real estate

investing course with wedge deals F

didn't already mentioned do yourself

property management and Rental

Renovations that's a pretty big one

stocks and psychology money the gold

course on efficiency and productivity

that's a big one too uh and um you know

if you have questions you can email us

at staff at meetkevin.com another thing

to know is we are uh kick and but with

our financial advisory clients that's

stock hack.com I'll be in touch with my

team through my radio uh so even I even

though I want to minimize my time on my

phone I'll will be reading and

researching and in touch with the team

through radio so uh all of our advisory

clients are still going to get fantastic

help uh and uh Consulting basically from

me right that's the whole point of stock

hack.com is you get Consulting from

Kevin through the guys so you know they

communicate with you evaluate your needs

I talk to them about it and we figure

out next steps that's a big thing and so

we're helping people with some of them

with million dooll problems some of them

with hundreds ofk problems some of them

with multi-million dollar real estate

problem some of them with 100K real

estate problems some of them trying to

get into their first house some of them

trying to get into their first rental

it's kind of interesting so I'm excited

for that and uh I guess that's all I

have so until uh the great reset I

suppose of October 21st until then

appreciate yall uh in case uh you're

looking for a

spoiler I don't have one for you but I

do appreciate you see yall soon goodbye

good luck and yeah I'm going on vacation

so not Financial advice but some people

might know what that might mean if

history has any guide all right folks

we'll see you in the next one goodbye

good luck love you all do not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take