complete f**king crash out; i'm sorry

All right, Kevin Hasset on CNBC telling

us the labor market is going into nap

time. I haven't watched it yet, but the

headline is that it's going into a quiet

time. And I'm like, what is this?

Preschool? We going to nappy doodle

time? Is this is this really what we

want? The director of the NEC saying

right before the jobs reports come out.

Is this why we're not going to get the

October report? We know the September

report is coming out on Thursday. We

know we got ADP coming out tomorrow

morning for the weekly moving average,

but where's the announcement about when

we're going to get the October report? I

don't know. Oh, and here's Sarah. Oh,

but anyway, we got to watch this video.

Let's see what it is.

>> National Economic Council director uh

Kevin Hasset. Good morning, Kevin. How

are you?

>> You guys had a great uh marriage session

there. Marriage counseling session. I

think there's hope for you two.

>> There there's hope. We got maybe it we

cover the cover the

>> shill shill shill anything that distract

from jobs.

>> Uh maybe the truth is somewhere uh in in

the middle. Uh Kevin and I I have been

fairly optimistic when people come on

about uh the US economy. I can find a

lot of positive things. Um why do you

think affordability is such a buzzword

uh right now? Now, I mean, we we lived

through 9% inflation and I think Biden

years they it averaged over 5%.

>> For those four years,

>> we're at the highest levels that we've

seen in recently at 3%. Why all of a

sudden is it uh I don't know, is it

Trump's fault?

>> Right. Well, I mean, for sure people

still are trying to dig out from the big

hole that was dug by uh the previous

administration's policies. So, if you

figure the typical mortgage uh payment

uh monthly mortgage payment about

doubled, uh if you look at a typical bag

of groceries, the monthly bag of

groceries cost about $400 when President

Trump was uh leaving.

>> I I hate this stuff, by the way, because

so much of what these politicians talk

about just ignores the reality that both

Trump and Biden contributed to the

original stimulative stimulative COVID

inflation. both of them

>> office last time and about $512.

What the Democrats are doing is they're

saying that this uh runaway uh spending

that we gave you guys uh that created

runaway inflation is 100% your fault uh

because you haven't fixed blah blah blah

blah. All right, let's let's actually

get to some like meat here, which

hopefully comes when we get a question

asked

>> because real

average weekly wages fell during during

the Biden years because of the

inflation.

>> That's right.

>> Right. So, it fell. However, the

president uh is constantly saying prices

have come down. Now, inflation is still

3%. It's still too high. Now, oil

prices, energy prices, there are certain

>> He's countering the White House's idea

that, oh, prices are coming down. That's

because Donald Trump is looking at, you

know, these miscellaneous

cherrypicked data points where like, oh,

well, egg prices have come down. Yeah,

we had to callull a crapload of

chickens, which led to a shortage in

eggs. Guess what happens when there's a

shortage? The price goes up and then it

comes down. And Trump's like, see, I'm

responsible for the price coming down.

It's such nonsense. Prices are still

going up and that's what's frustrating

people. This, you know, we were in the

alpha report this morning. We're looking

at Walmart. My by the way, I almost

vomited when I saw what Walmart did in

other income to make their EPS come up.

That's the kind of stuff we talk about

in the alpha report. Remember, you can

join using coupon code NVDA uh before

Wednesday. But what what I saw at

Walmart was that above inflation,

they're barely growing. They're growing

like 1 and a.5% above inflation. Now, in

fairness, they're able to pass on the

inflation to their customers, and they

are showing increasing sales, whereas

Target is showing decreasing sales. So,

you got to give Walmart credit. And they

also just bought back like $6 billion

worth of stock in 6 months. I mean,

they're buying back like a billion

dollars of stock per freaking month.

They got so much freaking money. It's

amazing. Anyway,

>> uh things where they have come down, but

when you keep saying prices are falling,

that's not true. Uh, THANK YOU. CALL HIM

OUT. Now watch. Kevin Hasset ends up

shilling. Well, you know, the price of

eggs has come down. Man, he'll look such

a clown. You can't do that. Don't do

that, Hass.

Because inflation is still it's the 3%

is on top of all the inflation we had

during the Biden years. So, we got all

that inflation plus an additional 3%.

And we I think you should admit that

>> a more a more precise way to say it

though, Joe, is that purchasing power

has gone up. So real wages, that's W

divided by P for our technical people in

the audience.

>> Oh my gosh. Let's just let's just def

redefine

what's going on. What he's really doing

with real wages, by the way, and we

could look at this, but if real wages

did decline because when inflation was

9%, of course, wages weren't catching up

to that, right? So he's comparing to

that and saying, okay, yeah, may maybe

inflation is still high, but but hey,

man, you know, real earnings are going

up now. uh and he's referring to this

trend uh that occurred after uh really

it started you know we bottomed out here

in about the second quarter of 2022 and

since then we've had a trend of real

wages going up. It's hard for I feel

like Trump to take credit for that

because this real wage uptrend is really

just a reversal of the downtrend

following all this insane inflation that

we had that really peaked out in 22. So

of course inflation's no longer 9%. It's

like 3% now. So, of course, real wages

look like they're going up. I mean,

really, if you want, you could go to

this I like this website for this

purpose, but you could go ahead and

throw in here CPI. So, let's throw in uh

inflation,

all items, and then let's go ahead add

that data series, but we're going to

have to do a percent change from a year

ago. And let's just we'll go to like

semiannual or whatever. I'd like to

normalize these two. this uh uh the top

line and let's go to line number one

here. Let's go with percent change from

a year ago. So if you look in here

postco we zoom in a little bit. There

you go. This is what I wanted to show

you. This is exactly what I was verbally

describing. We just basically built a

chart to show you this. When inflation

is high, when the green line is high, of

course the blue line's going to go down.

And when the green line starts coming

down, of course they start converging.

Duh. That's historically what has always

happened. So Kevin Hasset, this is not

happening because of you. It's happening

in spite of you. Gone up by about $1,200

this year. So, the way to think about it

is that we've dug a $3,000 hole because

of Biden policies and we've, you know,

gained $1,200 on the way out already,

which should give you a great deal of

hope for the future that the wage

increases that we're seeing will

continue. And, uh, even if inflation

stays positive, make it so that people

feel way better when they go to the

grocery store and to buy a car. You

know, we've we've reduced the cost of

buying a car with the deductibility of

interest. I mean, there's a million

things that we're doing to fix this

problem, but it's just kind of

astonishing to me that the the cost

problem is somehow being uh blamed on

us. Now, think about if you had I mean,

part of the cost problem, mind you, or

tariffs. The the short-term impact of

tariffs will increase the cost uh of

goods and services. This is normal,

mostly goods, but it can trickle into

services. This this idea that oh well

now we're giving you a tax credit on

your interest for a car loan just

motivates Americans to get into debt.

This is the opposite of what you should

be doing. In addition to this, you know,

wouldn't it be nice if they actually

reduced car prices? You know how to

actually reduce car prices?

Let the Chinese sell their cars here.

Let the free market win. You want a free

and fair market? Open the doors to

Chinese cars. Let our American

manufacturers like Ford and GM compete

against the Chinese. And guess what's

going to happen? Ford and GM are either

going to have to dramatically cut their

prices and figure out how to get

dramatically more efficient in their

factories or they're going to go

bankrupt because cars are going to get

so damn cheap. So how about instead of

hey Americans, why don't you finance a

$50,000 average price car now and you

know you could write off the interest

when the interest is, you know, mega

high right now. I mean, I there some of

the car dealers are doing introductory

financing, you know, like 1% or

whatever, but I mean, let's be real,

you're just paying more for the car when

you get that. How about instead of

encouraging people to get into debt and

then you're not writing off that much

interest anyway if the interest rate is

1%, right? Like the irony. If you take

the 0% introductory offer, how much of

the tax write off are you going? If you

take market interest rates, you're

paying through the nose for debt at the

worst time to do it. Worst time to take

on debt right now. And you're paying for

inflated car values. You want cheaper

cars, let the Chinese bring their cars

here. Oh, no, no, no. We're tariffing

the Chinese. Well, exactly. You are

robbing the opportunity of the American

consumer to have a cheaper car. Now,

Biden won't do it either. This is not

bagging on Republicans. Democrats don't

want Chinese cars either because that's

anti-American. But it's 100% capitalism.

You will have massive deflation in cars

if you let the Chinese actually sell

their cars here. And it would be a win

for every single American. Every single

American would win.

>> Especially with the Obamacare thing. So

Obamacare is 100% Democratic.

>> If somebody here goes, Kevin, what about

dumping? DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT

dumping is?

Listen, this idea of dumping is comes

from companies who overmanufacture

products because they want a competitive

advantage and they're like, "We have all

this product. Let's just sell it. Sell

it. Even if we sell it for a loss, what

you do is when you sell a product for a

loss, eventually those manufacturers go

out of business and eventually you find

an equilibrium. But the idea is that

they can manufacture so much cheaper

than us. Who wins when a manufacturer

dumps on us? I mean, think about it. If

I was a solar panel company in America,

I'd be like, "Please dump all over me.

Dump on me more. Please, please dump on

me because it makes it cheaper for me to

do things." That's capitalism. Now, if

that means that because they're selling

at a loss, they go bankrupt. That's on

them. Then another Chinese company will

take over and sell panels at a slight

margin, but the margins will be tiny.

You can't make money selling solar

panels. You know, you make money selling

like batteries and inverters, but

there's only a limited amount of time

for that. So, you know, this this idea

that as a consumer, you should be

disappointed about dumping is insane. If

you are buying stuff, you should be

like, "Please dump on me." The only

people who are pissed are people who

can't compete for the long term. in

manufacturing because if somebody's

dumping, they will drive themselves out

of business if they're selling at a

loss. And if they're selling for a low

margin, let them let them sell for a low

margin. It's great for people buying

policy. It's always been 100% democratic

policy. What they did is they expanded

the subsidies during CO and then all

those subsidies basically went

>> Why would you produce those cars in

America? Fear Furd Furd 10. horrible

tank. I would agree if they produce

those cars in America. How the hell are

you gonna manufacture cars in America

when you have to pay people $30 an hour

plus workers comp? So now you got $40 an

hour plus payroll taxes plus paid time

off plus holiday benefits plus all the

that it takes to hire somebody

in America. You know how hard the

American government has made it to

actually hire American workers? It's so

damn expensive. The only person who

says, "Yeah, go manufacture cars with

American labor." are the people who have

never hired an employee in their life.

They have never run a payroll statement.

And they're like, "Holy it's

expensive to do stuff in America." Bro,

you got people in China who are

literally walking for $800 a month.

And that's so they can get by. And you

know how you actually help those people

get ahead? By buying their stuff. As

soon as you stop buying their stuff,

they make even less. Welcome to

capitalism, dude. But what you want to

pay $800, bro? You're paying $800 a day

to an American factory worker. Maybe

every two days, you pay $800 a month in

China. And who benefits? Well, I'll tell

you who benefits. The consumer in

America benefits. And that worker

working for $800 a month benefits

because their wages can actually start

going up. Now, who loses is the factory

worker making $40 an hour in America,

but you could go make that money

somewhere else.

There aren't that many factory workers

in America. You're talking about a UAW

with 400,000 workers. You know how many

households drive cars in America? It's

like 110 million. We've got 110 million

households in America who drive cars and

benefit from cheaper cars. And if you're

shilling for 3 or 400,000 auto workers,

what you should be doing is

incentivizing them to get jobs in future

service industries in America. AI,

robotics, whatever. Train them. Give

them money. Give them stimulus. Help

them. But let 110 million American

families have cheaper damn cars. Take

care of the people who get hurt in the

transition. And let capitalism do its

job. Then you'll have cheaper uh cheaper

cars. You'll have better consumerism.

You you'll have you'll have a stronger

economy across the board. It's insane.

It's insane. Somebody says, "I'm okay

with Sydney Sweeney dumping on me, too."

Dude, I went to American Eagle to try to

take a selfie with a Sydney Sweeney

poster. Not a single one. And I'm like,

what the hell is this? What the hell is

this? There's not a single Sweeney

poster in American Eagle. I was so

disappointed. So disappointed. It's just

terrible. Dude, you keep skipping the

part where they terrify. Bro, shut up.

This is the dumbest argument. It pisses

me off being like, "Oh, but Kevin, they

tariff us." Dude, trade weighted tariffs

against the United States were 1.5%.

The US has trade weighted tariffs on

other countries to the tune of 18%

before loopholes and 12% after loopholes

which means we have literally 8 to 14xed

the tariffs that other countries are

putting on us. this idea that oh but

yeah do it dude you don't actually look

at the data if you believe that you've

lost your mind if you don't actually

look at the data but Kevin Canada has

150% tariffs on our apples and how many

of those 150% tariffs do you think are

paid zero zero dollars at 150% have ever

been paid why it's just an extreme quota

and then of course you know Trump likes

to cherrypick this extreme quota that

never gets paid because it's popular to

his base of people who don't actually

have any ounce of critical thought.

>> Right into the pockets of insurance

companies and uh Obamacare insurance

policies have doubled.

>> Somebody's like, "How much did you

pocket for this?" I wish the CCP would

pay me money. Please sponsor me, CCP.

I'm not sponsored by any country. I I go

make I go make a video about Russia and

Ukraine and people are like, "How much

did Zilinski pay you, Kevin?" I go make

a video about Israel and Iran. How how

much did Israel pay you, Kevin? It's

always funny like I super transparent

with I make my money. You know where we

make lots of money? The Meet Kevin Alpha

Report because people love it. They love

the perspective because they absorb the

perspective. They're like, "Kevin,

Kevin, dump perspective on me. Please

dump it all on me." [laughter]

in price relative to normal policies.

And so the fastest inflation in the

economy is these big government

subsidies thrown at Obamacare insurance.

Think about it. It's kind of like if you

give lots of uh student loans, then the

tuition goes up. It's that effect. And

so,

>> bro, yes. And you literally just talked

about incentivizing people taking car

debt

and wow. Yeah. Then tuition goes up. The

same's GOING TO HAPPEN WITH CAR PRICES,

YOU YOU'RE TALKING out of both

sides of your damn mouth, Kevin Hasset.

You're pissing me off. You're literally,

oh, if you incentivize student loans,

student loan, like the cost of how

schooling is going to go up. Well,

you're literally just 30 seconds ago

talking about how you're incentivizing

people taking out car debt. Are you

crazy?

Now they're blaming President Trump for

Obamacare as well. They should have

fixed Obamacare in the first place. And

President Trump had a plan in the big

beautiful bill uh to give people some

subsidies, but the Democrats didn't like

it because the subsidies weren't going

to their campaign contributors, the

insurance companies.

Bro, where where was the juice of the

article? Maybe I missed it cuz I was too

busy screaming at this AI

could be causing quiet time in labor

market. Maybe he slipped it in there.

But what does he say? What does he say

here? firms are finding that AI is

making their workers so productive that

they don't necessarily have to hire new

kids out of college. I don't believe

this. This is not consistent with the

data that we are seeing. The data we are

seeing suggests I mean McKenzie

literally just did a report on this uh

and I broke it down too but McKenzie had

a whole piece where they're like yeah a

lot of firms are working on implementing

artificial intelligence and like 80% of

workers at a lot of these companies use

artificial intelligence for at least one

purpose. uh but they're not finding that

it's directly correlated with this

sudden or like somehow massive surge of

productivity. They're not seeing that

correlation. We're not actually seeing

the outcomes yet. Now, will we hopefully

think Kevin Hasset has to say this

because it's like what they're really

doing is they're rebranding joblessness.

They're really trying to say, "Hey guys,

uh yeah, uh the reason you're seeing

this pain in jobs is actually because

everybody's so efficient and the economy

is booming so well. The joblessness, I

mean, think about the manipulation here.

They're basically telling you guys,

guys, joblessness. Oh, people are losing

jobs. Oh, that's actually because the

economy is doing so well. EVERYTHING'S

DOING SO WELL. THAT'S WHY PEOPLE are

losing jobs. What are you smoking, K?"

This is why I call this guy the greatest

shill, man. Full I mean, look,

McKenzie,

2025, November 5th. Okay, almost all

survey respondents say their

organizations are using AI, but most are

still in the early stages of scaling and

capturing value. And so if you actually

read this report, you're like, "Hey, you

know, we're we're using it, but we're

not really seeing any impact on EBIT."

39% report an EBIT impact. 64% say,

"Hey, maybe this is helping us with

innovation." But this means the vast

majority see no impact to EBIT. And this

is also some of this I feel like is

branding. You know, companies want to

justify why they're spending so much

more money on a software, artificial

intelligence software, but if you

actually go through the documents and or

like the information here, people are

like, "Yeah, you know, we're using it.

We're touching on it, but we're we don't

really know like how this is actually

helping us or transforming the

business." Read the whole report. It's

uh what is it? Just type in McKenzie,

the state of AI 2025. That was my

takeaway when I read it. Uh but anyway,

AI uh and then of course you're seeing

sort of that like slowdown in GPT

adoption already, right? That user

growth for GPT slowing down somewhat of

a of of an early potential red flag. But

anyway, what do we have here? Uh we have

uh artificial intelligence may actually

be increasing worker productivity. This

is the the the go-to thesis, but that

that could take 10 years, you know, it

could take 10 years for you to actually

see this productivity show up. That's

probably my biggest fear is that you

have layoffs because companies feel like

they could do more with AI but their

revenues aren't necessarily going up. So

then you get layoffs and then you have

this like you know 4 to 10year gap where

people are like oh we could actually

hire for these AI roles like that that

halfpipe so to speak is is very

dangerous because that bottom portion

will really suck because in that bottom

portion the Fed could be printing money

and you won't actually end up getting

anything out of it. GDP rose at the

strongest pace in the second quarter of

2025.

Well in fairness that's also because it

tanked in Q1. So you had this sort of

like Q2 reversal of Q1's drops dropped

because of the tariff insanity. So to

cite Q2 GDP is also I'm sorry,

but it's it's just shilling the Trump

administration and it it's just wrong.

Uh but okay, because there's so much

output growth and income growth. That's

the kind of thing that a free market

will work out relatively quickly as you

know. Uh and we find new ways to find to

spend money. Uh-huh. Okay. Pure pure

shilling. Okay. Uh David Saxs the AI in

cryptozar said earlier there will be no

bailout for AI after uh the CFO asked

for bailouts basically you know put the

hot air balloon up. Hasset's comments

also came as Trump and allies have tried

to refocus their message on

affordability. Uh you've got Hasset

saying grocery prices uh have uh not

come down during Trump's second term

despite the president's claims

otherwise. people are still trying to

dig out from the big hole that was dug,

right? Okay. So, I don't know where this

quote comes from that they have over

here about this quiet time, but uh

apparently they have this quote here

somewhere. Now, it it's interesting

because if you reconcile it with with

this, you know, this is really your big

black swan right now that's becoming

more and more clear every day. We hope

that this doesn't actually boil over

into a real crisis. But there are real

risks here that what we're seeing in

private credit ends up boiling over. Uh

and so Jeffrey Gunlock, he says load up

on cash. Stay away from private credit.

Assets are overpriced. Investors are

incredibly speculative. This is where we

pointed out like you've got this Cyber

Mike guy who's saying, "Oh my gosh, the

robo taxi math is wild. We could do robo

taxis at a dollar a mile at 80% margins.

And I'm like, you know, this is why you

can't buy Tesla at a good price because

people are shilling these insane

numbers. Even Kathy Woods at like 50

cents a mile or and I I think it's even

way less way lower than that how much

you're going to actually be able to earn

per mile because you you just saturate

the market with robo taxes. It's going

to be very difficult to maintain these

these high prices. Uh, I mean there's a

reason I feel like why Tesla is

massively trying to undercut the pricing

market right now. That's because they're

trying to lost lead to to, you know,

drive as much demand as they can, which

is fine. It's a reasonable strategy as

you're trying to enter the market. I

mean, there's really no difference

between like this whole like dumping

idea and Tesla dumping the value of robo

taxi ride prices. They're trying to gain

market share, right? Who benefits? The

writer, the consumer benefits. So, you

got the same people that are like, "Oh,

we should be anti-China dumping cuz

you're going to hurt our manufacturing

base." Those same people are like, "I

love that Tesla charges below market

rates for Uber rides, you know, robo

taxi rides." It's like, it's just

another form of dumping. Just it doesn't

maybe align with exactly what they want

for their portfolio. But I think

Gonlock's got a point here. This, you

know, overpriced asset concern, uh,

nosebleleed valuations, he warns about.

He recommends a 20% cash position to

hedge against a market implosion. Uh

probably not bad. I mean like I Buffett

famously puts it that cash is like the

best call option that you could ever ask

for because it's a call option on every

asset class with no expiration.

The health of the US equity market is

among the least healthy in my career.

The market is incredibly speculative and

speculative markets always go to

insanely high levels. It happens every

time. which I remember when I read this

the first time I'm like that sounds

bullish. [laughter]

We still have another leg boys. Uh but

anyway, he talks about garbage lending

references how the same thing happened

in the subprime crisis. I mean it's

fair. This is always what happens is you

end up getting uh people who package

together insane uh products that that

are trash products. They slice them up

and they slap a AAA rated on it. Uh here

Gunlock even says that Gunlock drew

parallels to inflated AAA ratings of

subprime mortgages, right? I mean you

have to understand if you are a ratings

business, right? If you're in the market

of selling ratings,

if somebody calls you uh and says, uh,

hey, uh, I need a rating for my bundle

of trash. Will you please rate my bundle

of trash? I I I want to sell it. If you

say, "Yeah, we'll rate it, but you know,

we're going to we're going to give it a

real rating here." Versus some other guy

who's like, "Hey, man. Yeah, we we'll

get you a good rating. Just sign up with

us." You know, you're always going to

end up getting the rating going to the

person who's basically on the phone

promising you that they're going to

bring you in at a AAA rating. So, the

ratings are always going to be bull

crap. This is why what we saw with

Renovo was so shocking where like the

loans were worth a hundred cents on the

dollar and then all of a sudden they

were deemed to be worthless. That's when

Renova went bankrupt, which I want to go

through this, but this is, you know, the

New York Times basically did a whole

piece on how uh, you know, all of these

employees, about 1,500 employees

abruptly got terminated. They're not

getting their money back for money they

spent on gas. They're getting screwed

because private equity came in and and

destroyed these people's ability to get

a check. Now, you got 1500 unemployed

people. We got people without uh you

know with halffinish projects and all

these corporations that were sold into a

rollup a private equity rollup uh yeah

here rolled up to uh uh you know led by

BlackRock and they just go bankrupt it

because that's always how it works. It's

the Wall Street greed that just ends up

bankrupting uh uh you know good business

unfortunately because you got to squeeze

these crazy uh profits out of uh you

know AAA rated bull crap. It's scary.

And so the question I think for Gunlock

is just how deep does it go? [music] And

I don't think we can listen to Hasset at

all because I think he's just frankly

the greatest shill of the

administration. He does a great job. you

know, he's basically like the Carolyn

Levit of economics. It's insane. Uh it's

minister of propaganda, but for the

economic side. Uh so, you know, I I

don't trust it as far as I could throw

them. And that's not going to be very

far.

>> Why not advertise [music] these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, [music] man. You have

done so much. People love you. People

look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and [music] YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your