Trump ATTACKED, Housing CRASHING, Fed & Oil Hell, & Apple iPhone 15 FAIL | Bottom Line Report [E.4]

is the real estate crash here is

inflation coming back what is Apple's

disaster what's going on with matterport

stock is a Donald Trump going to debate

the next Republican debate coming up

soon and what about reaction to the FED

are rates ever going to come back down

let's talk about all this and More in

today's bottom line report today's

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now as crash courses check those out

again at me kevin.com America's biggest

landlord apparently is now struggling to

find properties to buy this is a pretty

big surprise for a lot of folks and it

might be an indication of what's to come

because some of these big landlords are

actually starting to dump and what that

could mean for us in terms of a real

estate reset well let's just say it

could get juicy let's take a look at

this piece from The Wall Street Journal

which goes deep on America's biggest

landlord Invitation Homes and American

homes for rent are some of the largest

landlords in America and they are

lamenting that they are having trouble

finding homes to buy they say quote we

write hundreds of offers every week at

price points that we'd be willing to

transact at Invitation Homes a chief

executive Dallas Tanner told investors

this summer but we're striking out quite

a bit landlords with a thousand

Properties or more accounted for point

four percent of Home purchases during

the second quarter that's down from 2.4

percent in 2021 in other words these

Mega landlords are buying less of the

homes that are actually transacting and

part of that could be because prices are

so high but it's not just that prices

are high right now it's also that some

of these companies are starting to

actually dump real estate and this

creates something really interesting for

about a year and a half I've been

warning that the real estate market is

going to face pain when we start seeing

institutions dump real estate because

it's not going to be mom and pop 30-year

fixed rate mortgage owners who are

dumping their real estate with this

locked in a sub three percent rate it's

institutions who have to free up their

Capital because it doesn't make sense to

own real estate at a four percent cap

rate when you could get a money market

fund paying you five and a half percent

these companies aren't billed to try to

make money during these times they're

built to make money during the easy

times they're not billed for the hard

times where buying wedge deals is what

creates profit for them it's not what

these companies are built for unlike my

real estate startup which of course you

could read the prospectus on and learn

more about at healthsack.com since we're

not fundraising but Invitation Homes

owns about 83 000 homes and listen to

this they've been actively selling homes

that have appreciated at the point where

the properties are now yielding less

than four percent and instead what

they're doing is they're selling these

properties and they're throwing the cash

in the bank they've also started buying

properties from other institutions at a

discount off of what those companies

bought the homes for in 2021 and

Invitation Homes just bought 1870 homes

from Starwood real estate trust a

company that's now upside down on those

homes they've speculated on during the

bubble in 2021 and Invitation Homes is

trying to pick him up cheaper but I'll

tell you if it weren't for those 1870

homes Invitation Homes would have

actually sold more homes than they ended

up buying that's because they added just

470 houses in 2023 so far and they sold

675. that means they would have been net

sellers had it not been for that

Starwood acquisition American homes for

rent is also becoming a net seller look

at this they were a net seller during

the first half of 2023 selling nearly

1100 homes while adding just about 780.

most of them newly built homes many of

those that they're building themselves

in markets where they can still so get

higher cap rates now some of these

markets are seen as risk here which is

why they often go for newer Built Homes

so they can minimize their risk areas

like Pittsburgh Cleveland Cincinnati New

Orleans Chicago Detroit they're still

sitting around these six to seven caps

because you're usually trading with

higher poverty and you're taking on more

eviction risk in other words you're

going for a riskier potentially low or

Quality Property trying to offset that

with newer construction to squeeze out

some yield but you're really sacrificing

quality Properties by doing that

potentially some argue what's

fascinating though is the takeaway from

all of this is that when institutions

are starting to sell you might be

getting closer to the point where blood

is starting to flow in the streets and I

believe that's where some of the

juiciest real estate deals can be bought

potentially this winter will see exactly

that more institutions becoming net

sellers especially as things get tougher

in the winter time usually the only

people who have to sell in November

December are not the choice movers who

are you know trying to upgrade their

home or move closer to their childhood

schools is people who have to sell

because they're getting squeezed out as

in an institution is getting squeezed

out an Airbnb Speculator is getting

squeezed out somebody who's speculated

thinking they'd be quickly able to

refinance as rates come down they get

squeezed out these are people who are

going to have to sell they won't be able

to make the payments anymore and they

create a great opportunity for you to go

by or for us to buy over at house hack

anyway pay attention to the real estate

market because there's definitely some

pain coming to the real estate market

next what's going on with inflation well

thenx just reported that package prices

were actually down about two percent in

the last quarter and they picked up

about 400 000 packages versus a worth of

volume from the yellow bankruptcy and

the UPS strike drama FedEx also says

thanks to a reduction in costs their

profit beat and their profit

expectations going forward are expected

to continue to beat this is something

that's very exciting for FedEx because

they're really telling the world hey

look prices are going down for packages

but we're able to produce more profit

because we're running the ship stronger

and more uh efficiently this is leading

FedEx stock to move about six percent in

pre-market to the upside which is quite

exciting but take a look at what's going

on with the inflationary Trends in

something that's been pretty

inflationary

Pet Foods yeah head Foods Pet Foods now

facing potentially lower prices look at

this pet owners resort to cheaper food

as inflation weighs on wallets

pet food is typically one of the last

places that people go to save money and

guess what folks it's finally happening

first it starts with discretionary

purchases for pets like buying less toys

which are usually high margin pet items

then even though pet food is up 11 from

a year ago we're finally starting to see

premium dry dog food losing share at an

accelerating rate down 2.9 percentage

points in just the last three months

ended July compared to a year ago you're

starting to see dis and deflation this

is good this is one of the last holdouts

to kind of get prices down for goods or

at least the rate of inflation down

that's what we need we need to see this

spread throughout every level I remember

last year a course member actually sent

me a message and said hey I run a pet

supply store in Vegas and we're still

seeing price increases and thought okay

when that turns it'll be a sign that

we're starting to get towards the end of

the cycle and here's a Wall Street

Journal piece telling us that at

inflation is actually here or that

deflation disinflation rather right that

that disinflation is finally turning and

some of those leftover categories now

obviously we still have work to do we

have a fed that's convinced we need to

be higher potentially forever and that's

leading to some nervousness in markets

in fact quite literally there is an

article now in the Wall Street Journal

talking about higher interest rates not

for longer but potentially forever yes

that's literally the article title here

and that's because now you have a fad

that potentially is signaling Hey look

we don't really know what's going on

we're creating these projections based

on what people think uh which are 20

Bank presidents and voting members

combined they throw their little

estimates and Dot plots down whatever

but they're not even all voting members

so this whole Dot Plot and SCP

projections thing it's all fine and

dandy but what really matters is what's

actually happening in the economy and

when Jay Powell yesterday was asked well

what's actually happening then like what

are we going to do he basically told us

I don't really know soft landing's the

goal but it's not the base case so we'll

just play it by ear and three months of

disinflating data doesn't make a trend

so we'll just take it one step at a time

and so obviously that led the treasury

market to sell off once again which the

treasury Market's already been facing a

supply issue right you've got the

government borrowing so much money what

do they do they then have more treasury

bonds available you not only have the

government offering more treasury bonds

available debt rising over 33 trillion

dollars now we added a trillion dollars

of debt in just 30 in the last 30 days

it's remarkable but beyond that you've

got the Federal Reserve dumping treasury

bonds via quantitative tightening it's

the opposite of QE right and you've got

low appetite for bonds because every

time somebody buys bonds yields just end

up going up even higher and as yields go

up even higher your bond values lose

principal value it's too risky to be in

bonds so just go buy money markets at

five five and a half percent it's crazy

10-year treasury right now

4.43 that's insane it is the highest

we've seen in this entire cycle and

guess what that ends up doing

drives mortgage rates over eight percent

yeah you have a 740 credit score today

they will be over eight percent

scary so what about the idea about

higher interest rates not just for

longer but maybe forever here it is on

Wednesday fed officials surprise the

markets by signaling interest rates

won't fall as much as previously planned

consider that they're only expecting

rates to fall and this is kind of the

scary thing right they're only expecting

rates to fall to 5.1 percent by the end

of next year that is by the end of 2024.

they're only expecting rates to go down

to 5.1 percent that's like nothing

that's basically like not even cutting

at all I mean the market expects rates

to go down to 4.7 percent but basically

no Cuts then a year after that the end

of 2025 maybe we get down to 3.9 and

then maybe by 2026 we get down to 2.9 in

other words you literally are cutting at

a rate of only 0.08 per month over the

next 28

months think about that for a moment I

think we literally

Overlook how blatantly slow the current

projections are the current projections

are that over the next 28 months we will

cut rates

by about

2.5 2 to 2.4 percent

works out to roughly

0.08 percent of cuts per month in other

words to get one full percentage point

one full percentage point a hundred

basis points divided by eight basis

points of cuts is over a year to get

down one percent and this is exactly why

now you've got stories like this here in

the Wall Street Journal suggesting uh oh

maybe rates are going to stay high for a

very long period of time to some extent

people believe that maybe this is just

talk that is maybe the FED is just

trying to talk inflation into the grave

for sure after all j-pal finally rolled

and said it people hate inflation and we

need to make sure that inflation goes

away forever and so by doing that we

just keep talking that rates are going

to stay high until we're convinced

inflation is gone and then we can always

rapidly cut and so that's the premise

behind this idea that maybe the neutral

rate is higher and we need to force

rates down uh or of course inflation

down by having a higher rate path for

much longer this is problematic though

because a lot of people are like wait

does that mean the stock market is going

to suffer I mean think about it if rates

are going to stay high this long and

rates are only going to fall at a slow

pace then is there potentially a risk to

the stock market in such a slow move

down with rates well TS lawn board

actually thinks

no not necessarily in fact listen to

what TS longboard and they're usually

the Bears okay generally the Bears

listen to what TS Lombard thinks is

actually the best for risk assets like

stocks look at this here's a piece from

TS Lombard out right after the FED

meeting so it incorporates news from the

FED meeting and I want to jump right to

an important segment right here look at

this

we are not yet in danger of undoing 12

months of disinflationary progress

despite what's going on with oil right

okay good that's great but what about

this here A recession with deep Cuts

would end up leading risk assets to

struggle so they're arguing that if we

end up getting a recession where the FED

has to panic cut that's what you're

going to see pain and risk assets

because that's when you're likely going

to see bankruptcies that's when you're

going to see earnings crash that's when

you're going to see layoffs that's when

you're going to see real pain even

though we might want those big cuts

because it means yay cheap money again

it would come on the back of a lot of

earnings pain and it's actually not what

you want so be careful what you wish for

the idea of we want big cuts maybe the

opposite of what we actually want as

investors

TS Lombard they're the Bears folks and

what do they argue they say the

following gradual Cuts intended to

normalize would support risk assets

in the near term

as well as an fx cover rally this is

more for the year foreign exchange uh

Traders but point of this TS lumbar

piece here what's so fascinating is that

this idea that

maybe just maybe the reason the Nike

Swoosh is playing out the reason even

the bear Morgan Stanley Mike Wilson

Morgan saying is Mike Wilson says wow

Mega caps might do great is because Mega

caps give you less of an opportunity

cost right if you're sitting in Money

Market funds you potentially miss out on

markets going up right so Mega caps and

the big growth stocks and the big tech

stocks and the NASDAQ stocks whatever

they give you less opportunity cost risk

because you're exposed to the market so

in theory you don't have an opportunity

cost risk okay so they give you less of

that but what else do they give you well

in the event that you go into a

recession

and risk assets get hurt

the biggest companies will be most

likely to survive

but if you don't go into a recession

they're also most likely to succeed

in this winner take all environment that

we're in they have the lowest borrowing

costs they're borrowing like Microsoft

around three percent while they're

reinvesting their cash at five to five

and a half percent it's insane

at the same time they're the ones

probably most primed to benefit from the

artificial intelligence Revolution

because they have the money to spend on

capex to capitalize on the actual

efficiencies of artificial intelligence

versus every American Consumer who's

like uh open AI whatever man I'm just

trying to pay the gas bills it's crazy

it's a crazy environment that we're in

that the Bears are literally now coming

out and saying yeah you know

maybe this like slow cutting phase is

actually exactly what you want for risk

assets because it just aligns with the

Nike Swoosh recovery that Kevin's been

taught they may as well just say me

Kevin's been talking about this forever

Nike Swoosh recovery yes he's also been

saying it's gonna be volatile a volatile

Nike solution ever promised it was all

just gonna go straight up although

honestly if you look at the week if you

just look at the NASDAQ on the basis of

a weak chart

it feels almost like it's just gone

straight up so a little volatility is

maybe the price to pay for some of the

gloriousness that's been occurring but

anyway take a look at this break evens

we know that break evens have risen I've

been complaining about break evens

Rising The Five-Year break even up the

five-year forward break even up they did

fall after Jay Pal's Hawking but what do

we know about the five-year Break Even

well one big thing that we know is that

at least according to T.S Lombard they

have not risen as aggressively as you

would think based on the rise in Energy

prices specifically oil this is a fancy

way of saying hey look ordinarily when

you have oil prices spiking the way they

have about 30 percent over the last

quarter

and hedge funds going all in on freaking

oil right now ordinarily you would see a

much larger move towards

well breakeven's going up you would see

fear you would almost see uncertainty

priced into these break evens but you're

not seeing that not only are you not

seeing that but you're seeing Jay pow

who's looking at the break evens going

up and he literally said that I quote

even financial markets are just

inflation expectations remain well

anchored

that's powerful very very powerful it's

almost as powerful as being able to say

that you can get access to a crash

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have questions send us an email at staff

at mekevin.com

remember how I was saying that hedge

funds are going all in on oil right now

it's the trade it's kind of like when

shorting Tesla was the trade

we want to know what's kind of crazy

though look at hedge fund allocation on

oil you ready for this

should not come as a surprise to you

hedge funds are plowing into oil they

are going oil baby

and everybody's estimating that that's

it oil's gonna go to the Moon why is oil

gonna go to the Moon because the edges

are in it of course they're publishing

bold pieces on oil going to 120 so they

can squeeze their profits out of oil

be wary of what the hedgies and suits

are telling you always be aware of what

people's positioning is

you should know my positioning I Grant

and actively managed ETF it's a

transparent ETF for goodness sakes

for goodness sakes it literally every

single day tells you what the possession

I guess

I'm blunt about that okay I I realize

everyone's got biases but that's okay

that's what makes us different

but the Nike Swoosh has proven correct

so far and I think it's going to keep

coming I also think that real estate

pain is coming you'll want to buckle up

for that real estate pain don't worry so

much about this oil trade there's oil

trade at the same time as you've got

floundering China and a floundering

Europe we really think that this oil

trade is going to hold probably not in

fact even this piece right here suggests

it's not economically driven this is

driven by supply chain restraints by

OPEC plus and trading in other words

when you get OPEC plus and Russia saying

hey we're all going to cut and then all

of a sudden all the hedges plowing going

oh well they're going to cut and then

they'll all write institutional pieces

about oh oil is going to 100. they

traded in that direction and when they

dump it it gets rapidly dumped it

happens time and time again this is why

Jay Powell on our bingo card said

literally we are going to look through

energy price volatility

because this is the crap that happens

all the time he said it's a very bad

tool for predicting future inflation yes

is it going to affect headline inflation

who cares it's going to temporarily

affect headline inflation nobody said if

I show is going to go down in a straight

line

not a big deal though look at Kroger

look at FedEx look at the pet stores

look closely at inflation data it is

gone it's gone leftovers of it are going

away

the leftover inflation even Peter Schiff

is like yeah inflation's gone and I

respect Peter Schiff

respectable answer inflation is gone but

who really won here well not the

American you're still stuck with higher

prices that's the argument Peter Schiff

makes and he's not wrong he's right the

inflation is still here but the actual

continuous increase is gone now we've

got to talk apple and some more

matterport and stock analysis but first

a quick tangent on Donald Trump

The Wall Street Journal editorial board

went as far as suggesting that Donald

Trump is afraid to debate that he is

ducking exchanges with his competitors

who could challenge his record Donald

Trump is expected to skip the next

debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential

Library here in Simi Valley California

which is about 30 minutes away from

where I live

the debate will be held on the 27th at 9

00 PM Eastern 6 p.m Pacific time I'll be

covering it live just like I did in the

last time but I want you to know

something about the Wall Street Journal

the Wall Street journal's editorial

board

is basically paid for by Rupert Murdoch

Murdoch controls News Corp which owns

The Wall Street Journal guess what

Murdoch also controls the fox

corporation who's running the debate

Trump isn't going to

and Donald Trump will be instead

conducting a rally two union members

to once again get media attention while

the fox debates go on it's brilliant

last time was Tucker Carlson this time

it'll be union members during the union

strikes of course you can blame Biden

he's gonna blame electric vehicles

though I think Donald Trump is my

opinion I like to be transparent okay

y'all have asked for more of my opinion

I'm going to tell you when I give you my

opinion and I'm going to be as unbiased

as possible after that I'll give you my

opinion Donald Trump is really going to

stop bagging on electric vehicles

they're a lot better A lot better range

they're not as big of a headache as they

used to be

and he has started softening he started

to say hey just let people have a choice

you want a gas car you want electric car

that's fine but I think he's making a

losing argument slamming on this idea

that electric cars are so bad and that

you know Biden's only pushing EVS it's

true they're pushing EVS

but I don't know that it's a winning

argument to say that's so bad but anyway

that's just my piece you can you

chastise me for that let's take a look

at the rest of this piece here so the

Wall Street Journal editorial board is

arguing that Donald Trump should make

his stance clear on abortion Donald

Trump I actually talked about this a

couple days ago I thought had this

very

well put together argument that is very

convincing to people who like Donald

Trump he says look here's what I'm going

to do I'm going to sit down with people

on the left and we're gonna sit down

with people all right and we're going to

come to a compromise on how many weeks

and when you're going to have a solution

on abortion

a lot of people hear that and they're

like hell yeah Trump's gonna solve the

problems he's a fantastic salesperson

very very smart very very very smart

approach you can't alienate anyone like

that

when you just say I'm gonna solve it

it's very smart it is it is a very very

smart approach

editorial board says he should come out

and actually give his position how many

weeks is it Mr Trump

Donald Trump is also encouraged to give

some insight on his tariff and trade

policies for example the editorial board

here suggests hey you know Trump you've

been talking about imposing a 10 tariff

on all U.S Imports that's going to cost

somewhere around 300 billion dollars a

year and potentially lead to some

retaliation from other countries what

say you about that why don't you come

debate that now obviously a lot of

Donald Trump supporters are going to say

look Trump doesn't need to debate we

know what he's like as president and

quite frankly how much is he really

going to be able to answer in a debate

and I actually have to agree with that I

actually don't think you're going to get

the most color out of Donald Trump in a

debate because these debates are all

just

like little news Snippets clipping

that's all these debates really are you

get these things answered in an

interview that's when you get these done

we need to interview Donald Trump

petition meet Kevin date of your Donald

Trump somebody make it happen anyway

I think this is very interesting because

Donald Trump was Mr tariff on aluminum

steel Chinese Imports when we were

talking about tariffs between 10 to 25

percent so he's done this before

now something that I do think is very

interesting is you have uh some talk

about these 10 tariffs potentially being

costly not just because of the fact that

it will make things more expensive given

that we've got about three trillion

dollars of trade to the tune of about 10

so 300 billion dollars a year somebody

has to pay for that

but the tax foundation for example and

they're super anti this idea by the way

of a 10 tariff a lot of economists don't

like tariffs because there's always

deadweight loss here but anyway what

they argue is that not only would we

Face inflation higher prices but that we

would actually hit our GDP because of

the response we would end up getting

from foreign governments they expect

that a 10 tariff on All Imports would

reduce US GDP by 0.7 percent and

eliminate 505 000 full-time jobs now of

course this is a protectionist policy

When Donald Trump says I am going to do

a 10 tariff and we're gonna have a

shield around America what he's saying

is we're going to invest in America

we're going to make America more

competitive by making other stuff more

expensive like Chinese Goods more

expensive

and to some extent there could be a way

to argue that this is functional and I'm

going to show you how this could be

functional but first let me give you the

bear piece the bear case on this is

negative point seven percent to GDP and

a loss of 505 000 jobs that's the bear

piece right here but it's not just that

after all of the retaliation that we

might get from foreign governments we

might further reduce GDP another 0.4

percent and eliminate another 322 000

jobs this means potentially eliminating

over 825

000 jobs and shrinking the economy by

about 1.1 percent in other words they're

going as far as saying maybe Donald

Trump could literally push us into a

recession

if he went for this 10 cut

okay uh or ten percent tariff I should

say the bank of England by the way just

left rates unchanged after they're lower

than expected inflation read so keep

that uh keep an eye on some news coming

out from the bank of England and this

idea that maybe maybe the central banks

are going to talk tough but they're all

secretly at Peak levels

uh anyway okay so this is the bear piece

on Donald Trump right so what is

potentially a positive argument on this

since I do want to give both sides of

this okay so this the other flip side

argument of this is actually written by

somebody you wouldn't think would write

this it's actually coming from the left

and what professors and economists from

the left are arguing is that a 301

Authority allowing Donald Trump to

potentially unilaterally Institute uh

these these tariffs could end up leading

anyone close to America to benefit while

punishing anyone outside the circle

think about it kind of like the circle

of trust you remember Meet the Fockers

and Meet the Parents the movie was great

okay Robert De Niro there's a circle and

you're either in it or you're not so

think about it like this circle of trust

here's the circle

here's you China

and let's bring in anybody we want

Mexico come on in Canada come on in did

you know that if you combine

trade between Mexico and Canada you

actually have almost three times as much

trade between America Mexico and Canada

as you do between America and China

how crazy is that most people don't

realize that or think about that I'll

give you the exact numbers here because

I think it's worth seeing and then I

want to tell you about this circle but

let's look at the exact numbers right

here so what do we have right here look

at this trade with Mexico accounted for

15.4 percent of goods exported and

imported by the US

just ahead of America's totals

with Canada at 15.2 percent we'll add

that together what do you get

15.4 plus 15.2 percent that's 30.6

percent where does China sit at 12 so

30.6 divided by 12

is

2.55 times as much trade

goes to Canada and Mexico combined with

the United States

when you compare it to China

China amounting just to 12 and again

Mexico and Canada amounting to 30.6 it's

kind of wild a lot of people like oh we

trade so much with China

to be surprised actually trade a lot

more with our domestic Partners via free

trade and this is uh thanks to you know

the agreements that we have the

alliances that we have between China and

Canada but it's actually very

interesting because if you go to this

meet the fonkers idea

you could actually set Donald Trump up

with his 10 tariffs to negotiate the

winners on the inside of the circle and

then Target the pain to countries like

China which could be then a tool or even

Russia which could then be a tool to

limit their ability to maybe invade

Taiwan or otherwise

listen to this ultimately Donald Trump's

plan could result in a new U.S led

system of managed trade with terms that

are beneficial to the US and its allies

while punishing anyone outside the club

like China despite the rise of China

Hawks and Washington this plan will

undoubtedly provoke a big backlash from

U.S companies but that never stopped

Donald Trump from using America's most

powerful trade tools to deliver his

campaign promises

see look I'm trying my goal is to be

unbiased here it's my goal we can be

unbiased we can give you both sides of

the spectrum that's very very important

speaking of the spectrum

you know what's on the Spectrum Apple

but maybe not with their own modem

Wall Street Journal now running this

spectacular piece called inside Apple's

spectacular failure to build a key part

for its new iPhones it's basically a

fantastic piece about how Apple has no

freaking idea what they're doing with

modems that they can build chips like

the M2 chips or a17 ships and that these

are actually easier to build

but modem chips are hard because you

need them to work with 2G 3G 4G LTE

networks a 5G networks uh and apple

chips have been overheating they haven't

been able to assemble the the uh

experts within uh Apple the employees to

actually be able to pull it off

back in 2017 Apple's like we're done

with you Qualcomm we quote hate your

guts is what insiders at Apple say that

Apple hates qualcomm's guts that Apple

Sued Qualcomm in 2017 they ended up

settling this in 2019.

but Apple

now capitulated and said you know what

we're we've announced a deal that we're

actually just going to work with

Qualcomm throughout 2026 because we

can't get our own act together Apple

really wants to profit more from having

their own chips in fact when Apple moved

to their own M2 chips away from Intel

the expectation is that Apple was able

to make 75 to 150 more per computer in

profit because they had their own

in-house chips margin baby that's

pricing power that's delicious but

they're failing on the modems but you

know what maybe that's not so bad

because look at this folks those

Qualcomm modems apparently are actually

really good look at this test and I was

actually looking at this quite a bit

because I'm like ah do I want the iPhone

15 I don't know you know I've been

really complaining about the iPhone 15

and I was comparing the Qualcomm chip in

the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 15 and spec

Wise It's not obvious that it's any

better when you compare the specs it

looks like you've got the same bands the

same antenna but it is the new dress

Super Dragon chip from Qualcomm and when

you put it through tests at least

speedsmart.net pulled off some tests

look at some of the tests they pulled

off upload bands you're roughly the same

so for those of you like me who are

uploading YouTube videos maybe those

upload speeds won't be any faster on an

iPhone 15 compared to a 14. they'll

definitely be faster compared to an

iPhone 13. but look at those download

speeds

download speeds somewhere up to 24

faster on Verizon you're going to 243

versus 195 megabits down 300 versus 245

T-Mobile 204 versus 178 on 18t those are

significant download speed improvements

that's actually that's that's kind of

tempting

that's not the only thing that's kind of

tempting uh I'm going to talk about a

second thing that's pretty tempting

about the iPhone 15. right after I

mentioned did you know

that apple

apparently stole about 40 of Google Maps

business thanks to releasing Apple Maps

yeah here's a piece by uh the uh The

Insider via or I'm sorry the information

via Yahoo finance suggesting that almost

two years later we were at 40 of the

prior Peak Google insiders talking about

the loss to Apple Maps being potentially

about 40 percent of Google Maps volumes

on uh on cell phones wild shows you the

power of Apple but it's not just this

folks you know the other thing that I

respectfully haven't paid attention to

as much as I should have

the fact of 3D spatial video

now I'm going to show you something that

I think is pretty cool about spatial

video it's a little nerdy but uh take a

look at this clip on spatial video if

you don't have the iPhone 15 you're not

going to have the ability to record

video in spatial video why do you care

about this because if you have babies

that happen to be born soon because I

got twins on the way and who knows maybe

more for next year maybe there's

something Kevin hasn't talked about yet

and you want spatial video of these

children

maybe not while they're on their way out

but you know after when they're born

you gotta have the iPhone 15. it's like

remember for a moment what spatial video

is here it is this is what it would look

like on the Apple Vision Pro you live a

memory as if you're right back in the

exact moment

[Music]

hey Dad now this is super nerdy but take

a look at this this is how they explain

to developers what spatial video is and

it's an apple provided video and

basically they're like hey look at that

text that popped up on screen doesn't

that actually feel weird like where

things are can create depth conflict and

depth conflict is something that we have

to resolve but basically if you look

closely on screen now you can see that

the image that is technically the left

photo

shows more of that flower to the left of

that bird's head than the Right image

and as they merge these two together you

get the feeling of depth it's basically

because you have a left eye and a right

eye right and therefore you see things

slightly differently and that gives you

depth perception and now you can mimic

that with apple Vision Pro this is

really cool and so if you were looking

for a reason for the iPhone 15 I don't

know that is pretty tempting I don't

know what it's gonna actually look like

yet I probably want to try it out in the

Apple Store the Apple Vision Pro headset

isn't out yet anyway but I will say very

very very cool Apple the news a pollen

is potentially threatening and not to

supply weapons to Ukraine anymore but

quite frankly they've kind of already

given everything that they have in their

Arsenal and they're waiting to get

resupplied by America so they don't

really have anything to gain anyway and

this is really just emotional posturing

the idea here is that Poland is tired of

a Ukraine dumping cheap Grain on

European countries and so a lot of

European countries have actually been

Banning the importation of Ukrainian

grain there's a lot of drama going on

around this I don't know that any of

this is really a massive deal I wanted

to address it because I know people are

going to ask about it but it is not that

big of a deal something to keep an eye

on but that's about it it's also worth

noting that oil is trading in heavy

backwardation right now that basically

means that oil futures for the next year

are trading well below 90 dollars per

barrel anywhere between 88 in January

all the way down to 80 next August so

you prices where oil are right now or

unrealistically high they're not going

to last that long you've got a lot of

trading going into this this is as we

saw with hedge funds a lot of nonsense

going into this Beyond this there is

actually a real chance we might end up

having some more near-term volatility

thanks to yeah the potential of

revisiting a government shutdown it's

not me saying this it's not me trying to

be political okay this is straight up

from Punchbowl news these folks are

pretty dang good at uh you know calling

what's going to end up happening and uh

let me uh let me give you the Thursday

morning briefing here are you ready for

this here we go McCarthy gave in to the

right he pushed his moderates to follow

him and is pursuing a plan that'll be

dead on arrival with the Senate and the

White House it very well could lead the

government to a shutdown on October 1st

in fact it may be unavoidable at this

point basically here's what McCarthy's

going to do he's going to try to pass a

stop cap funding bill but a lot of

Republicans aren't going to go for this

unless it has many cuts to discretionary

spending so they're going to give

Democrats in the Senate and Joe Biden in

the White House a 1.47 trillion dollar

level in discretionary spending that's

what Republicans are trying to go for

Democrats want more money they're also

not going to include any Ukrainian money

or disaster relief money both of those

things are what Democrats want they want

Ukrainian money they want disaster

relief money even some Republicans are

like please provide the Ukrainian money

like Lindsey Graham Collins whatever

it's not gonna happen so you're gonna

have another Showdown

then McCarthy's going to be between a

rock and a hard place McCarthy's going

to have to decide do I actually put

something together

that Democrats are going to go for

because we have a split Congress or do I

hold firm remember Donald Trump is

really aggressive I wrote this down over

here as well McCarthy has it well they

wrote McCarthy has a tough decision to

make I wrote Trump pressure as well

Trump's the guy who's going to be on TV

every day going you know

I would hold firm I would get America's

budget back into balance whether it's

true or not we've seen Donald Trump do

the hard line I'm not I'm not doing

anything until I get my border wall

funding and I'll shut the government

down I don't care

he pulled that off before so we know

he's done it now the question is is

McCarthy gonna do it is he going to be

willing to risk a government shutdown

I don't think so I don't think McCarthy

will end up pulling that off uh and

that's likely going to lead to more

Republicans and people like Donald Trump

saying things like uh well that's

McCarthy for you

government shutdown could be on its way

so what else is there to talk about well

folks

I want to be very clear about this I

really do believe there are going to be

some beautiful opportunities coming up

for Real Estate I think house hack as

the Vanguard of real estate is going to

be extremely well positioned to take

advantage of these opportunities and if

you're not ready to buy real estate you

don't have the cash to buy real estate

the credit to buy real estate uh the

knowledge to buy real estate consider

diversifying your investments from

volatile stocks or other Investments

take a bit and invest into house hack

really excited we've got some new uh

tiered benefits as well by the way we're

going to be announcing those so if you

invest I think the first break is at

about 19 600 bucks somewhere right

around there uh and then uh 25 000 and

then uh I think there's one at seventy

thousand and a hundred thousand anyway

you'll get some benefits like video

shout outs uh you'll uh potentially be

able to Shadow us uh for free if you

invest a certain amount and come see

what we're actually doing with Hal Sac

it's uh on the ground no cost to you

which is very fun

so uh there'll be some really cool

benefits but learn more first about how

Sac what we're doing what the vision is

just go to housseight.com read the

prospectus understand the risks involved

look at the pitch deck look at the video

learn everything about house hack we're

really excited about the fundraise that

we're doing and we're gonna be closing

that fundraise as well uh probably

within the next 30 days we'll see it's

going very very well so far so thank you

to all of you who have invested we've

already doubled what we've had people

invest the first 24 hours of the first

time we raised money last year we've

already doubled that in the first 24

hours which is really amazing great vote

of confidence so thank you big shout out

to all of y'all now before we finish I

did promise a brief analysis on

matterport so matterport stock is in the

toilet I've been out of the stock since

January of 2022. I love matterport as a

tool but as a stock

it's not that great it might have some

more pain ahead of it it's not two bucks

and 19 cents right now and so I decided

to look at their earnings it's got like

a 659 million dollar market cap still

too much in my opinion uh and and I

think there's still more downside but

here's the problem you've got negative

cash flow in the last six months you're

losing 110 million bucks net cash from

operating activities so your free cash

flow once you take out plant property

and Equipment sitting around negative 33

million dollars for six months this is a

lot of money that's that's Vanishing

here and where is that money going well

when you look at the income statement

you see that a lot of money is going to

SG a and a lot of that is stock based

compensation this company is getting

squeezed for stock compensation where

they can't even figure out how to make a

profitable product yet and it really

pisses me off you've got good

subscription revenues that's profitable

you got 13 million dollars of profit in

your subscription revenues but on

Services you're barely making money a

couple mil product you're losing money

and when you factor in the 18.8 million

in r d and 56 in SG a what is this

this is supporting the livelihoods of

Executives and Senior staff at

matterport not the actual product

it's frustrating to me to see this now

balance sheet wise I see why they still

have some hope they have over 400

million dollars of cash somewhere around

440 million dollars worth of cash

short-term Investments so your cash and

cash equivalents they don't have a lot

of debt less than 100 bill in short

terms and long-term payables

therefore they have shareholder Equity

of about 551 million dollars a lot of

that cash in short-term uh Investments

which is great which means they do have

the ability to weather the storm for a

little bit longer consider if they have

negative cash flow of only about 15

million a quarter they can weather the

storm for a while and that's a benefit

they could go through 26 quarters of

losing 15 million dollars of cash flow

heck they could just take their entire

net loss of 50 mil and at 50 mil if that

all came out of cash they could get

through two years of cash burn so there

is a potential upside in that they have

the cash to burn

but I'm not convinced that matterport is

in a position to end up proving that it

can continue to grow to where its

revenues will ever offset it's SG A and

R D expenses

and that will keep the stock compressed

because eventually that cash will be

gone and if you haven't grown to become

profitable by then

that's when you start trending towards

BK I don't think matterport's going to

go BK but they do need to either cut

expenses substantially or become a whole

lot more profitable and this is not the

environment to grow in

sorry nobody's no nobody's selling homes

there are no transactions it's Rick is

cohort you got to get in with the

property managers and contractors but I

don't even think they're advertising

appropriately to them that's always been

my suggestion I feel like I want to go

in there and take the company by the

helm and turn this company around but I

don't have the money to Elon Musk this

company and fix it but anyway I do have

my frustrations about the company and uh

I think it just remains an Untouchable

for now why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin path right there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take