wtf

today's obviously a red day in the stock

market but a lot of Institutions on Wall

Street are saying don't worry this is

just a Slowdown it's oversold and it's

not something you should be worried

about I'm going to go through what Wells

Fargo just talked about UBS just talked

about what Bloomberg talks about uh and

we'll give a little bit of historical

comparisons and context to this sort of

selloff that we're seeing in markets and

how it might fit into the future because

right now the future at least in terms

of expectations

H doesn't look that bright at least

based on expectations of consumers the

University of Michigan a final read for

marches out from the preliminary report

two weeks ago it came in worse than the

preliminary report from two weeks ago

and the summary is here that quote

expectations have plunged a precipitous

18% from February now losing more than

30% since November this occurred across

all demographic and political

affiliation

including Republicans joining

Independents and Democrats in expressing

worsening expectations since February

for their personal finances business

conditions unemployment and inflation

nearly two-thirds of consumers expect

unemployment to rise this now the

highest reading since

2009 and the highest inflation

expectations since November of

2022 however seeing this five handle on

the year ahead expectations isn't

actually what's most concerning what's

most concerning is right here the long

end of the needle has become unanchored

well to some extent at least remember

every time Jerome Powell talks to us he

tells us

hey the good news is inflation

expectations are still well anchored you

realize that is actually a critical

component of Federal Reserve monetary

policy Transmission in English for

things to stay good the FED wants you to

believe that things are going to be good

cuz they realize there's a transmission

from expectations to what reality is and

this is why we've regularly heard Jerome

Powell tell us it's okay it's okay long

run inflation expectations remain well

anchored if you've ever watched a single

fed meeting you know that's what he says

it's not what he sounds like that's

someone else but you know what he says

and this de anchoring right here is an

early warning signed now I mean Jal

could sort of cast this aside and say oh

yeah it doesn't matter you know it's

it's just a one Monon read that could go

away next month if we come up with a

tariff re resolution which is true so I

expect them to sort of cast this aside

for a while it's interesting this

morning in our course member live stream

remember you can join the membership

over at meetkevin.com before the price

goes up uh and you lock in that price

forever but this morning we were talking

about how

stagflation usually ends in recession

and it makes logical sense when you have

stag flation you usually break that with

higher rates until you break inflation

completely and that usually is what

results into a negative growth shock and

therefore you end up with negative GDP

now so far this is just bad news I said

we were going to talk about how it's

overblown and buy the dip in just a

moment and we're going to do that but

first I have to pile on a little bit

more bad not because I want to but

because the data is what it is you know

I I already know people do the whole

like oh but but Kev you're just trying

to be a bear uh no actually just report

the news with what I think is a

relatively neutral perspective that 80%

of people can enjoy and if you know some

extreme edges don't like it well I'm

sure they'll let me know in the comments

but I'll keep trying to provide as much

of the truth as possible and the truth

right now at least according to the

Atlanta fed real GDP indicator which has

been pretty damn accurate so far is

telling us that the data we just got has

actually worsened the outlook for q1 see

just yesterday the Atlanta fed gold

adjusted GDP now indicator was sitting

at positive. 2% that was revised down

from the positive. 4% on the gold

adjusted GDP now now this is actually

sunk to

.5% which means right now GDP estimates

for the first quarter which the first

quarter ends you know in two days here

or three days is is basically trending

negative

which isn't great uh because that could

set up for potentially a second quarter

of negative GDP as well and that's when

we have technically a technical

recession the question is will people

continue to spend through it so far the

upshot is that the answer has been Yes

Federal Reserve officials are right to

say that people are still according to

credit card spending data spending well

a lot of this hearkens to the JP Morgan

credit card spend data from uh from from

March but I have a problem with using

the JP Morgan credit card spending data

because it does not represent a broad

swath of the American Consumer it

represents a uh sliver of a wealthier

cohort of of banked individuals you know

there are non- banked individuals there

are uh you know individuals who are

banked at completely different

institutions uh regardless of their net

worth and there are just some people who

can't even open the door at JPM because

well frankly their credit card standards

are too high it's too restrictive to

open up an account there for for credit

card spending purposes so we' talked

about this before and when we look at

the the granular details of the JP

Morgan spending data we also find that

it's really gen Z and Millennials that

are propping up where uh credit card

spending whereas genx and boomers are

basically flat to barely growing uh and

this isn't even inflation adjusted yet

then we'd be negative but the problem

with that is the people who have

actually been through hard times before

who've personally lost a home or you

know uh lost throughout a recession or

lost a job or whatever th those are or

lost a business my goodness those are

people who are scarred and I think those

are the folks who are starting to pull

back on spending you know I I pulled

back last July because I'm like uh this

isn't good youall already know that

we're going to get to some of the good

news in just a moment uh but we were

also talking in the course live this

morning about how uh part of that may be

because of my scarring as a child when

you know we basically went from having

nothing to finally having a pool home in

a nice neighborhood because business was

doing well uh and then losing my

childhood home and I know the feeling

the scar that is inside of me and how

horrible that is to basically get rug

pulled and go from a neighborhood with

family and friends and and and a nice

sort of normal American lifestyle you

know basically into small apartment we

could barely afford and losing our car

because not only well did it break down

but then when when we fixed it and then

we couldn't make the payments on anymore

and we lost that and I started walking

to school which I mean fine you know

people had to do that in history too but

I'm just saying those scars they last

and I think that's why you could see a

generational divide between older

Millennials genx and Boomers compared to

gen Z who has only ever lived through by

the de all all right so Bloomberg though

and this is where we get to some of the

upshot Bloomberg suggests look the labor

Market's still okay okay we've heard

that argument a million times before

when the labor market rolls over it's

too late okay when when every company

starts announcing 20% layoffs because

there's some Shock you're not going to

care about the unemployment claims data

you're not going to care about the next

month's BLS labor report you'll already

know you'll already know that we're in

the poops and it's too l late at that

point you can't wait for that data it's

it's lagging data right so you know

Bloomberg suggests hey there is also a

risk though of utilizing these sentiment

surveys because with the sentiment

surveys they don't necessarily forast

what the stock market is going to do

there's a very weak correlation there's

actually more of a correlation with

negative sentiment and stocks going up

so that is an argument people use for

buy the dip it's like hey well people

are fearful you should buy but the

question is people might be fearful is

blood on the streets now UBS says H

equities might be getting ahead of

themselves a little bit with the

sell-off UBS has a whole piece out on

how equities are pricing ahead of

fundamentals uh however UBS does argue

that the fundamentals are deteriorating

so you know we have to be aware that you

know while we could say Hey you know

maybe we're just getting ahead of

ourselves here and we're

overpricing uh some of this adjustment

here it's worth remembering that

companies generate earnings and the

reasons they have the valuations that

they do is because of projections for

earnings uh so here's the UBS piece

where they suggest the market pricing

derating is ahead of fundamentals right

now so in other words the sell-off has

gone too

far they actually expect a tactical

recovery however they see concerns about

renewed weakness unless earnings

expectations stabilize and policy

uncertainty abates so in other words

while we could have a oh wow cor weave

shares open at $39 versus the IPO price

of 40 oh man that's going to be

entertaining uh especially since Nvidia

is backstopping them at 40 I don't like

that one I made a couple videos on it

over the last few days I'm like I don't

know folks this this could be a canary

we we'll see we'll see usually the IPOs

pop though you know you do the face

ripping oh 50% up on IP day anyway so

this is interesting from UBS because

what they're really telling you is in

order for you to really believe that the

stock market is going to sustainably

stay up you need not only earnings

expectations to stabilize but you also

need policy uncertainty to slow and I

think that uncertainty is why at least

in part uh you know quick update on on

the house act fundraising we're we're

almost at 3 million bucks in a week

which is is pretty incredible uh if we

include the r d probably I mean that's

that's pretty incredible for less than a

week and we haven't even done our

dedicated video yet on on the main

Channel that's pretty good you know it

was just it was within the first what

was it like 36 hours or whatever we

broke seven figures now now we're about

to cross 3 million bucks already for

this uncertain of a market I think it's

a signed people are really looking to

diversify so so for us we look at that

and we're like okay that's like six

wedge deals you know six wedge deals

it's like we could turn that into 600 K

of of profit on that right that's our

goal uh anyway check out house Haack

over at house.com but that's just a

little update for you I think it's

incredible I mean we we tripled our

first week uh or sorry our first you

know 36- hour period of fundraising

within the first week pretty incredible

so it's only we're only on day seven now

of of mentioning that the non accredited

round is available at house.com read

that you know read the disclosures and

the offering circulars and all that uh

but it's kind of cool uh and it's just

crazy because it's happening in this

environment where where stocks are

selling off so much I think it's because

people realize you know we we are a

hedge to this Equity Market Insanity you

get 5% all of the upside and downside

protection you know 5% yield plus upside

and Stu it's a good deal that's why I

put $5 million of my own money into you

know the the November round which

obviously I'm not counting as part of

this right here so um this idea though

about earnings expectations stabilizing

it's it's tough because really not only

do you need the Tariff War to to calm

but you really also need analysts to be

able to determine the impact of whatever

tariffs we settle on on individual

companies and that can sometimes be a

little bit more challenging one thing

that I think is very interesting is

there was some commentary about tariffs

this morning uh and the commentary on

tariffs this morning

was oh yeah right here so it had to do

with BMW raising prices and there was an

individual that said oh it looks like

BMW is only raising prices by about 4%

on these various different models and I

replied to that tweet and uh or post

whatever you want to call it uh and um

Donald Trump right now saying we'll

absolutely follow through with tariff

promise on Canada however things are

going to work out very well with Canada

we had a very good talk with Carney all

right well those up updates are pushing

I think the cues just a smidgen back up

I will absolutely follow through with

tariff promise on Canada yeah

interesting but anyway the what's what's

worth remembering is these numbers

showing you an increase of about 4% on

25% tariffs is not the way to think

about it this 4% increase is actually on

0% of a tariff because remember Vehicles

sit in inventory for about 2 to 3 months

and when Vehicles sit in inventory for 2

to 3 months especially you know a pre-

tariff stock up you might actually have

more than than two to 3 months of

inventory built up those Vehicles

getting their prices increased by 4% is

actually a 4% increase on zero so just

wait you know when the full impact of us

tariffs plus European retaliatory

tariffs plus us retaliatory retaliatory

tariffs hit not ideal now I hope we go

back to free trade and I actually

project that we will go back to free

trade at some point either during the

Trump Administration we will go back to

free trade or within the first 6 months

of if Trump doesn't do free you know get

bring free trade back then probably the

first six months of what will likely be

a democratic Administration in

2028 but uh what's fascinating here is

sock

gen uh had some some talks about this as

well they say uh let's see here oh they

were talking about how Canada is looking

to go back to free trade within Canada

itself and how there's a 250 billion

dollar opportunity within Canada to go

back to free trade uh and they really

talk about how hey you know free trade

is the direction to go and there are

benefits within countries and of course

for the United States and the globe as

well and eventually I think the

expectation for everyone is that we will

get to free trade maybe this is just

sort of a means to get to the end I

don't know know if they justify the yet

but we'll see however that said unlike

UBS sock gen is a little bit more

bearish uh in fact their headline is

that they quote caution investors about

buying the dip at the 200 day moving

average which is interesting usually I

like to buy when all of the analysts are

panicking and so far I don't see a lot

of analysts panicking but sock gen is a

little negative you know they they say

uh here what do they got hence when the

USS b500 uh Dove below its 200 day

moving average in early March investor

nervous increase nervousness increased

markedly as did recession fears we may

well be in a new bare market and the

recent Rally from March 13th back above

the 200 day moving average may prove to

only be a technical Rally from very

oversold levels certainly bull bear

sentiment indicators were extremely

washed out and crying for a rally if the

market fails to hold above the 200 day

moving average you can expect recession

chatter to quickly

resurface wow okay well obviously a

little bit on on the bearish side there

uh but then again there is a lot of

enthusiasm I mean if you turn on CNBC

it's almost daily I mean I shouldn't

even say daily it's almost like minute

by minute that all you hear is people

talking about oh you know you know

valuations have already come down it's

time to buy the dip Maybe maybe it is

but depends is it right for you is the

question here is just so you know what

the I'm using the uh

spy um ETF here as a as a way of

proxying the S&P 500 uh and you can see

the 200 day moving average right here

this Orange Line uh 200 day moving

average right now sits at about 570 so

we're a little bit below that right now

on the day moving average uh you can see

we tried to break above it but so far we

failed to hold it which opinion brings

us right back to this 550 line speaking

of which with the lines would you look

at this in this morning's Alpha report

that I sent to course members uh I

mentioned that if we lose 476 on the q's

we'd probably go to

469 and we literally did exactly that we

lost I mean we literally plowed through

476 and went through to uh 47 469 and

then on Tesla what's remarkable is that

I mentioned if we lose uh the 274 line

over here we could be touching 260 which

is crazy because look at this we got

within 10 cents of the 260 line remember

you can get all those with the meetkevin

membership over at meetkevin.com uh okay

so there's more though there's there's

there's a lot more to this that's worth

discussing uh and it's important to pay

attention to this the durable good

orders and some of the latest data have

started leading to an increase in credit

default swaps some people refer to this

as the uh as as basically credit spreads

now if you zoom all the way back out to

2013 you could see we're nowhere near at

the shock levels we've previously seen

but you usually don't see these Peaks

until you're actually in a real

shock what's worth noting though is that

this rise in credit default swap spreads

is the highest level that we've seen

in terms of a spike since the beginning

of 2022 when we started raising rates so

it's not that this is way lower than

these because the shock is just

beginning it's a way of showing you that

a big shock is beginning one similar to

what we saw when the FED decided to

start raising rates and getting bearish

at the beginning of 2022 you're seeing a

similar Spike now uh and this is the

high yield credit default swap fiveyear

spread okay in

English the Bros are demanding more

insurance against junk bonds defaulting

or high yielding corporates defaulting

okay that was English now let's go fifth

grade

level yo people buying more Insurance

cuz they think things about to break

down okay so

um it's

interesting uh this is this is this is

really just started within the last few

days here and it's something that I pay

attention to uh because this is the

highest Spike since the beginning of

2022 uh and and it's easy to sort of you

know wash that aside because you do have

UBS suggesting that indicators such as

pmis and leading indicators like the CIS

don't yet really reflect a recession

however market-based measures suggest

there is an uptake in recession risk and

Wells Fargo says that q1 is setting up

to be quote ugly but maybe it's not that

bad because February inventories don't

indicate that stocking up

yet okay

well let's be real the inventory

measures that we got this week are from

February when did the trade War really

get

bad

March so if the trade War really got bad

in March and Wells Fargo's like ah q1's

not that bad because inventory build up

in February it wasn't that big of a deal

bro what are you guys

analyzing like you I know we've been

talking about terce forever but when did

it really get bad March what where Where

Have You Been Wells

Fargo anyway

remember business is very simple when PP

goes down pricing power goes down

margins at businesses go down and then

layoffs follow it's a cycle eventually

PP will go up again I'm very happy that

eventually PP is going to go up again

now sometimes there are people who would

rather have no PP than small

PP so otherwise though it's a

cycle you get PP down and then PP Goes

Up Cycle all right so we talked about

Atlanta fed we talked about credit

default swaps we talked about UBS we

talked about W Fargo we talked about

Bloomberg you can see just how noisy

this is there's there's a lot of this

especially since you've got this talk

about Donald Trump potentially in almost

authoritarian way threatening companies

not to raise prices because of the the

you know vehicle trade War which I think

is kind of ludicrous because you know

the the trade War imbalances that we're

creating are insane I mean look at this

chart here cutting it off a little bit

there we go look at this chart I mean

Trump this is U uh this just shows you

an example of trade balance here uh the

black line is our trade balance and it

it plummets massively into deficit over

here because now we're importing even

more we're actually making the trade

problem worse because we're like oh my

gosh quickly import more before

tariffs actually exacerbating the shock

right now of course you know as we've

talked about before the argument is uh

you know Donald Trump is going

to

um you know detox the economy the

problem is how much damage is that going

to cause to be determined so we'll see

Mexico's economy by the way way is

almost certainly going to go into

recession in the fourth quarter they

already shrank you know 6% in January

they're at like negative .2% some of

that is due to structural changes inside

of Mexico budget defic deficits Cuts uh

to fiscal spending 2% of GDP Cuts you

know some of the largest levels of

cutting that they've wanted to do uh

constitutional reforms you know they're

trying to change a lot but they're just

pointing the finger at Trump I mean it's

an easy thing for Claudia shinberg to do

because you know trade with Mexico or

exports from Mexico make up 35% of the

Mexican economy so you need those usmca

exports so of course tariffs

disproportionately affect Mexico but

they just worsen something that's

already been been getting bad so Trump

doesn't deserve the full blame for a

Mexican

recession uh but Claudia shinberg is

going to say it's all Trump's fault but

then again she's a politician and that's

what you would expect them to do there

I've got honestly since 2021 I've gotten

so

disappointed uh in politics that it it's

just on a daily basis becomes more and

more disgusting to me I don't I don't

know if it's because you know like as I

get older you know then I was a youthful

29-year-old now I'm

33 you know oh those four years make a

big

difference but uh yeah kind of crazy so

anyway uh yeah that's a little bit of an

update in terms of why the hell the

markting of selling off the way it is

and uh you know trying to provide a

little bit of a balanced take there but

uh I mean you know where I stand on the

bull bear scale I'm like a 29 and it

ain't getting better uh it's certainly I

haven't seen it cross five you know

since the Nike Swoosh days uh but um

we'll see how it all goes we keep

bringing dat to you so thanks for

watching why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take