Trump & Bessent *TODAY* | EMERGENCY Rate Cuts

We we should probably be 150 175 basis

points lower.

>> Scott Besson calls for interest rates to

be about 150 basis points lower than

where they are today. He calls for a 50

basis point cut in September. And Donald

Trump just gave us insights into how he

might end up suing Jerome Powell. We've

got a lot to break down here along with

what's going on with Russia and

secondary sanctions. Uh there's so much

information. We're just going to break

it down and give you the best of

insights possible. As we go into this, I

want to give you a quick heads up that

current interest rate expectations based

on the market's outlook, not uh the

Federal Reserve's outlook or Bessant or

Trump's outlook is that we are going to

get at least one rate cut September

17th. that is now fully priced in with a

101% chance of happening. Uh by October

29th, we are pricing in a 69% chance of

a second rate cut. And by December 10th,

we are looking at the potential for 2

and a half rate cuts with that final

third rate cut coming uh by my birthday,

January 28th. Uh and then a couple more

rate cuts priced in for 2026.

Now, what that's just a quick little

market update there. What is the

information that we just heard from

Trump and then we'll get into what

Basson is telling us as well as what's

going on with this negotiation. My

prediction for this negotiation with

Putin on Friday. So, first, Donald Trump

just moments ago told us that Powell

took a building that could have been

painted and fixed up and it said what

they did is they built a basement under

the building that's next to the Ptoic

River. So, we've analyzed this before.

We've done a full breakdown video on

this. We've looked at uh you know Google

Maps, which we can do again. We've done

all this, but basically where the

Federal Reserve building is right now is

it used to be a swamp. In fact, that

whole area used to be a swamp. If you go

just into Google Maps and you type in

the Lincoln Memorial and you zoom into

the Lincoln Memorial, all of this was a

swamp. Uh all this green over here,

which is the National Park, part of uh

you know, the National Mall right here.

Uh and then uh the White House over

here. This is all swamp land and the

Federal Reserve building is right

Federal Reserve Board. Yeah, it's it's

right here on Constitution A. It's one

of these. Let's go to the actual if we

zoom in. Oh, yeah. Here we go. Federal

Reserve buildings right here. Here's the

construction site. They just acquired

this building right next door. Uh they

owned this building in the back as well.

Uh they've got some other buildings

around the corner as well. But the point

is they keep sort of expanding how many

buildings they have. And so yes, this

area is all in a swampy territory. That

is correct, Mr. Trump. Uh and so Trump

says basically he's arguing that Powell,

you know, should have never done this

renovation. He should have never built

this basement. It's the least valuable

portion of the real estate anyway. Why

are they doing this? Obviously, the

Fed's going to argue that this was

approved by Congress and committees and

so many other people were involved and

they did it because DC has height

restrictions and so they have to build

down instead of up and they want

everyone together in one place in the

campus because they want their

economists together and then Trump is

going to argue well what good are your

economists when my data is better than

your data which obviously we know Donald

Trump is very willing to in his

administration manipulate data for

example uh what we saw yesterday with

the entire uh you know sort of Trump

team, Levit, Bessant, they were

all talking about how oh inflation's

only working out to 1.9% annualized over

the last 6 months. And really what

they're doing is they're looking at the

chart going okay let's ignore November

and December's higher inflation levels.

uh sorry this is November, December,

January uh and let's just take the last

six months of data including the low

inflation that we had in March where we

actually had negative.1

on month overmonth CPI. That's just

that's that includes food and energy. So

these are not core prices. And let's

just average these six lower bars over

here which we know we're just starting

to see some of the impact of inflation

on uh you know from tariffs on overall

uh consumer prices. Mind you though this

is just month over month so it's not

core. So it's fluctuate it fluctuates by

the push down that you get from energy

prices and food prices coming down.

Let's just take these convenient 6

months right here add it together works

out to about 0.9 and double it works out

to about 1.9. That's how they're coming

up with the data which is really a

manipulation of data because when we

look at the data more closely we see

that ah we see the underlying inflation

story in core goods really rapidly

picking up over here which is a red flag

because the trajectory is what we should

be concerned about. If we have stable

services, core services inflation and

core goods are skyrocketing, then we've

got a problem uh and an inflationary

problem. This is exactly what Powell's

worried about. Now, of course, Trump

using this sort of noncore

cherrypick data argues, well, Powell's

too late. You know, there's no

inflation. Even though we're seeing the

inflation pop up in the latest CPI

reports under the hood, when we peel

back the layers, we go, ah, crap. you

know, annualized rates of inflation in

areas where we're affected by tariffs

are moving up. Uh even what we see with

uh look for example at overall if we

include goods and services together. So

just core inflation rates, we have a

six-month annualized rate of 2.4 which

in the last 3 months has gone up to 2.8

and in the last month has gone up to

3.8. That's bad. you know, soon we're

going to have core inflation somewhere

between four to 5% as some of these

tariffs work through uh towards the

second half of the year. Of course, you

know, Donald Trump is setting up his

argument to sue drum Powell. Now, how

could he do this? Well, by arguing that

you don't need all these economists,

your job is interest rates. And because

you don't need all these economists,

because your economists aren't valuable

anyway, because my choice of data is

better than your choice of data, then

I'm going to sue you for basically

sucking at your job. This is what Donald

Trump is setting up. Now, this is where

the question of sovereign immunity comes

in. See, sovereign immunity bars

lawsuits against federal officials for

official acts. But there's an important

phrase there, for official acts. Donald

Trump is going to argue ultraas which is

basically a way of saying hey you acted

outside of your legal authority and this

renovation is totally outside of

monetary policies that are delegated to

the Federal Reserve.

Uh, and

we think that I mean this is a potential

argument they could make that uh you

were corrupt or gave contracting deals

to your friends or your homies or your

buddies and you blew money that was out

of your scope to spend anyway. So there

really three ways you could play this.

Two of them are very similar. One is you

argue fraud, self-deing, and corruption

to Sue Powell. The other is you argue

you doing a renovation for more

economists is totally outside your scope

of duty and therefore against the law

and this is how you could sort of pierce

the sovereign immunity claim. And the

third one, which is very similar to the

other one here, is that you could argue

through the Administrative Procedures

Act that what Jerome Powell is doing

with this renovation is quote arbitrary,

capriccious, and an abuse of discretion

or otherwise not in accordance with law

and in excess of statutory jurisdiction,

authority or limitations.

So, in like in just plain English

basically, a full summary of all this

here is Donald Trump's going to make

this argument by suing Trump

that you built a building in a swamp

for people we don't need because my data

is better than yours and you gave

contracting deals to your homies.

Therefore, you're a fraud and we're

suing you. But we'll drop the lawsuit if

you step down. That's my prediction of

what Trump is going to do because I'm

trying to understand how could Donald

Trump sue somebody who is, you know, a

federal official and you can't uh

because they're protected by uh

sovereign immunity, you know, for things

that they're doing within their official

acts. But here is a way that you could

make it happen. So here is how Donald

Trump could sue Jerome Powell and why.

And again, Donald Trump's not looking

under the hood for this inflation data.

He is looking at, hey, uh, what can I do

to get rid of him? This is exactly what

they did to Cougler. And see, this

morning we actually had Scott Besson

give us some insight into what happened

to Cougler. See, Cougler all of a sudden

said she's leaving the Federal Reserve

Board. She's going to go back to

teaching at Georgetown. Now, Georgetown

is a Washington DC school. Donald

Trump's children went there. Tiffany,

Ivanka, and I think it was Eric. It was

either Eric or Don. I think it was Eric.

All three of them went to Georgetown.

Ivanka didn't end up graduating there.

She ended up going to Penn, but Tiffany

got a JD there. So, Trump has a lot of

connections to Georgetown. Georgetown's

also, you know, not trying to get uh a

UCLA or a Harvard uh or a Colombia

pulled on them. So, I wouldn't be

surprised if Donald Trump orchestrated

Kougler leaving the Fed by basically

saying, "Hey, we won't prosecute you,

Georgetown, or we won't come after you

and demand hundreds of millions of

dollars or whatever. If you just make a

sweet offer to Cougler, pay her more

money or whatever you got to do. Get her

to go back to work for you so she leaves

the Fed. Then we have an opening and

then we can put our Trojan horse

into the Fed." That's what I think Trump

did here. And this morning, Bessant

basically confirmed that in my opinion

because he went on Bloomberg and he's

like, "Well, she was very political. Uh,

and uh, you know, she she wanted rate

cuts. She wanted a foamed runway for Kla

Harris, but now for Trump doesn't want

to lower rates." And uh, it's really

interesting because it totally again

ignores the data of what was going on

last summer with jobs when we got our

first sort of early warning signs of

what was going on. Uh but uh it's

shocking because it really tells you

that Donald Trump has a lot of power and

he's looking at every angle possible to

get what he wants with the Fed. From

ripping people out of the Fed board,

basically trying to gut the Fed board

from the inside out to going as far as

potentially announcing a Fed chair

sooner. Uh now Scott Besson initially

chaired this idea about having a shadow

fed which he now doesn't agree with

which is basically appointing somebody

in the background to start making

announcements about like what they're

going to do in the future to discredit

Jerome Powell. Uh Bessant has walked

that back. But Donald Trump did tell us

this morning that he's open to uh

announcing a chair sooner rather than

later. Usually you would hear it by

December uh for a May appointment, but

we'll see.

Uh so we do expect this lawsuit to come

from Donald Trump against the Fed as

well, which isn't good. It's going to

lead to a higher spread between the

10-year and the 2-year. We can look at

that in just a moment as well. Uh, and

then we'll we'll talk a little bit about

what's going on with some of these other

things that Bessant said regarding rate

cuts and uh what's going on with um

tariff revenue from Nvidia. But first,

take a look at this. The 10-year down

5.8 basis points today, which is great.

But if we look at the 210 spread,

I hate that it doesn't do that. 210

spread CNBC. There we go. I always have

to Google it to get to it. Hey, bullish

Google stock, I guess. Uh, but anyway,

let's get it to load here. So, the 210

spread this morning was at 57 basis

points. If Donald Trump actually That's

at 55 now. If Donald Trump actually sues

Jerome Powell, I expect that this is

going to skyrocket,

which is dangerous because it could

happen around the same time that we end

up getting our August jobs data after

Jackson Hole. And I think Jerome Powell

is going to be very keen to the heat uh

underneath under the hood of these

inflation reports which will be really

not great because you'll get a hawkish

Fed. Uh at the same time you'll get a

bad jobs report while you've got Besson

at the administration clamoring for fat

rate cuts. You know, you've got Bessant

saying we should start with a 50 basis

point cut in September, which we will

get if we get another bad jobs report,

plus another 150 to 175 basis points of

cuts in total off of where we are now

soon. So, Besson basically wants to see

rates back at 2.75 to three, which is

probably realistic if we don't have

tariff inflation. With tariff inflation,

it's not. But if we have a recession,

you're not going to have tariff

inflation anyway. You're going to have

deflation and so you're going to cut

rates to zero really rapidly. That said,

Besson did tell us some other things. He

told us that he thinks Nvidia export

license revenue will be higher uh than a

lot of people expect. Uh he also said

that he does not support ending the

monthly jobs reporting at the BLS. This

is actually really good. I'm kind of

grateful to hear that Bessant has like

at least some reasonleness. I think

that's why markets like Bessant more

than Nutlick.

uh

because he does have some like

intelligence and reasonleness that comes

through. So, I'm grateful to hear that

he doesn't support ending the monthly

jobs data at the BLS. I think that would

be bad.

Uh he just suggests that there's been

some sloppiness and it's time for some

cleanup, which I think that's totally

fair. He says he's committed to keeping

inflation expectations low and that we

inherited big deficits and then goes on

to talk about how we got to lower

deficits, which is really ironic given

that we just spent over $3 trillion on a

big beautiful bill. But, you know,

I I don't think uh politicians uh are

really opposed to saying things that are

ironic, like uh Bess saying you

shouldn't come to DC to line your pocket

when he was talking about insider

trading from congressmen and women. But

the irony there is Trump is probably the

king at getting rich off politics

from events at his golf courses or

memberships or you know Jensen Hong

paying a million dollars to go to a

dinner with Trump to try to get

exemptions from tariffs like Trump is

profiting left and right uh uh by doing

events uh around politics and and his

involvement with crypto or mega cap or

donations to his campaigns or political

action funds or his you Saudi jet. Like,

let's be clear, if anybody's making

gold, it's Trump. But in fairness, uh I

I agree with what Bessant says. Besson

says that people in the House and Senate

should be working for the American

people, not trading single stocks. And

so should we should have a single stock

ban and holding periods. Actually a big

fan of that. I think that's totally

reasonable. Uh and and he makes it

pretty clear like there's leaked

information over there. like it's not a

coincidence that these, you know, these

trades work out well often for these

politicians. Anyway, uh then he talks

about secondary tariffs coming to India

and not China. Like he's asked about

secondary tariffs coming to China, but

says we're not ready to commit to that

yet. And this is probably because China

honestly has this, I think, by the rare

earth balls. And I think China is a lot

more powerful of a negotiator than

anybody's really letting on. And China's

not very happy. Donald Trump just

extended the China tariff negotiation

another 90 days and now China is urging

companies not to use the H20 chips from

Nvidia uh especially you know for state

and government work. Now it's not really

a a complete ban although some say it

could end up being a ban there. There

some notes all over the place on this.

So the information is reporting that

there is a ban. Bloomberg is reporting

that there's just a an encouragement not

to use chips from Micron uh from Nvidia

or from AMD. So, it's a little unclear

uh you know exactly what's going on with

those chip restrictions. But I think the

reality is China is a very strong

negotiator because not only do they hold

leverage over us with Taiwan, if they

took Taiwan, 90% of our advanced chip

manufacturing would be gone. So this

constant sort of looming threat of China

invading Taiwan is is a very real risk

for us even having access to chips at

all. Us getting access to rare earths is

also pretty dang critical. Uh, and in

the face of all this, Chinese tech

companies are actually starting to do

really well, especially chipmaking

companies, because people are like, "Oh,

well, if China is going to ban exposure

to US chips, let's invest in Chinese

chips." Like, here's one, Capricorn

Technologies Corp. up 255% over the last

year. It's ticker symbol 688256

which I think it's pretty entertaining

that it's 256

you know this is like you know bits 256

bits right Shaw 256 security all this

sort of stuff uh you know you get the 2

56 gigabyte iPhone right uh anyway so um

kind of a cool ticker since they all use

numbers over there I think the 256 is a

pretty fair number but anyway uh you

know, these

it's to me it's very likely that China

is pointing at concerns over location

trafficking and chips or security

concerns related to them just like they

were worried about Tesla farming data

from FSD cameras or Apple farming data

uh and then China banning Apple and

Tesla from government or state or

sensitive locations or industries. But

what China really wants to do is

maximize their rare earth and Taiwan

leverage for as long as possible to prop

up Huawei and other Chinese companies to

make advanced chips so that they don't

have to rely on Nvidia or AMD. Nvidia

and AMD in the meantime are like, "No,

no, please let us sell chips. Even if we

have to pay a 15% tariff, we make so

much money off them. Please let us sell

these chips." Because I wonder, let me

see really quick. the H20

uh nanometers. How many nanometers is

that chip?

H20 chip

uh Nvidia because the reason I'm

bringing this up is ah

interesting

okay it's a 7 nanometer chip. So the

reason I bring that up is one of the

problems with the AI supply chain issues

that we face is there's a limited amount

of manufacturing that we could do on the

two and three nanometer scale which this

is where your most advanced uh chips are

being made. Blackwell Nvidia nanometers

should be two or three. Uh oh, it's

actually four. So Blackwell's on four.

I'm surprised by that. I thought I

thought it would be lower by now.

Anyway, the next generation will end up

being on three. But the point is the

smaller the nanometer spacing, the

better and the more advanced, but

there's a limited amount of

manufacturing capacity we have for those

smaller nanometer uh dimensions. So the

H20 uses the 7. So the reason Nvidia

wants that so much is because think

about it like this. Imagine somebody

told you you can make and sell a hundred

glasses of lemonade and a 100 glasses of

orange juice because you have an orange

machine that'll make you 100 glasses of

orange juice and a lemonade machine

that'll make you 100 glasses of

lemonade. But then somebody comes in and

says, "Oh no, you're actually banned

from selling orange juice." You're like,

"Well, I can't use the orange machine to

make more lemonade." Come on. Like what

if I pay a 15% export license for the

orange juice? like my profit margin is

still 50%. And okay, who cares? Maybe it

goes down to 40% or whatever net net of

everything. I want to sell oranges.

The point there is you have totally

different capacities for manufacturing.

And that's why Nvidia is willing to do

this because otherwise they're not

utilizing uh an avenue of revenue to

sell these oranges, the H20 chips. and

the H20 chip manufacturing lines aren't

busy making Lemonade because they can't

because it's a different line. So

that's, you know, one of the reasons why

uh Nvidia is really keen on getting

these these lowerc cost chips out. It's

just also billions of dollars worth of

revenue. So you know, China is then

trying to do like backdoor

limitations on these chips where they

say things like, "Oh, we don't want you

to use chips that have a certain energy

profile." And then that energy profile

is like just restrictive enough to ban

the H20. But companies are still using

the H20 because without the H20, a lot

of, you know, industry experts say that

costs for Chinese inference are going to

be three to six times as high. So they

they're kind of still held by the balls

and they need the H20s. So all of this

is kind of very interesting because each

side has a lot of leverage over the

other. China doesn't want their

companies to need the H20, but they need

them. The United States doesn't want to

be reliant on China for rare earths or

frankly Taiwan for semiconductor

manufacturing. But it's probably going

to be 5 years before we're self-reliant

on rare earths with the MP material

direct investments uh by you know the

department of defense, the US government

as well as the buildout of manufacturing

capacity. You know Intel's just doing a

crap job. So it kind of sucks. But when

you put all of that together, it's not a

surprise that we're not hearing good

news out of negotiating with China

because things just aren't going well

with China. And so that's why it's also

not a surprise that Scott Besson is kind

of like, "Oh, the Europeans need to join

us on secondary tariffs." No, Scott

Bessant, you all guys, you all can't

negotiate secondary tariffs on Chinese

oil imported from Russia because you're

already failing at negotiating with

China because they are very powerful and

we need China. As much as we like to say

that we don't need China, we can make

everything here, we can't. So, when we

put all this together, what we really

have sort of a bottom line out of this

segment

is we have a coupon code Jhole at

meetc.com.

That means it expires in about 11 days.

And so, you actually it's less than

that. So, you should really take

advantage of the J-Hole coupon because

there's going to be a big price increase

in the Meet Kevin membership and you

want to be part of the alpha report

because I mentioned just as an example

this morning uh we mentioned that Tesla

at 347 is not the place to go bullish on

Tesla. Take your tendies because it's

hard to make bets that it's going to go

above 347. And look at what it did

today. Sometimes,

it's not to be bearish, but sometimes

the, "Hey, this is great. Tesla 347. I

know it might be tempting to go for

calls for like 400 or whatever."

Sometimes the suggestion not to do that

is just as valuable as the suggestion

where on Monday I said it's going to be

347 within 48 hours and it was. So, if

you want to be part of that, make sure

you're part of the Alpha Report over at

me.com. But that said, I think a a big

bottom line out of all of this is you've

got negotiations not going well with

China. We're not really going to get

anywhere with these negotiations with

Russia because Zilinsky this morning

reiterated no land for Russia. And now

Trump is downplaying how this

negotiation is going to go. I think a

lot of people think this is going to be

like a huge catalyst on Friday that oh,

so much good news is going to come out

of this negotiation on Trump meeting

Putin. Putin literally or Trump is

literally now saying, you know, I'm

gonna go I'm gonna go and find out where

we are and what we're doing. That's what

he says we're going to do on Friday. So

much for I will end the war within 24

hours. Obviously, that was, you know,

now Trump says sarcastic, but everybody

knew it was going to be BS, but you

know, Trump certainly made it seem like

it was going to happen. Uh and and now

we've gone from I will end the war in 24

hours to nearly well basically a year

later from that commitment to well I'm

going to go and I'm going to figure out

where we're at.

Uh you know so we're not really getting

anywhere with the Russia Ukraine

situation. Uh Trump suing Powell is

just a way of again Trump trying to gut

the Federal Reserve to force more rate

cuts which is leading to more euphoria.

broadly in certain sectors of the

market, but it's also dangerous because

if we hurt the credibility of the

Federal Reserve more so than it's

already been hurt by themselves, uh then

our bond market could really set us up

for a steepening yield curve, that could

just be the nail in the coffin to small

business hiring and frankly small

business viability at all, which could

crush our economy. I think people forget

that half of our economy is made up well

half of our jobs are made up it's like

48% so half of our jobs are made up by

small businesses. So if you crush small

businesses even more than you've already

crushed small businesses in this

environment and then we get the layoff

cycle that's how we really start the

recession. Then you'll get the rate cuts

you want.

Uh so and how can Trump do this? Well,

he's got to pierce the sovereign

immunity veil. And I think he's going to

make the argument that

JPAW is going way out of his legal

authority with this basement renovation

uh to house more economists when you

don't need those economists because

their data sucks anyway. That's what

Donald Trump is going to argue. I expect

he'll probably make that argument

within the next two weeks, possibly

around Jackson Hold. It could also be

that Jerome Powell is doing this or

Donald Trump is doing this as a threat

to make sure that Jerome Powell says

nice things at Jackson Hole and talks

about rate cuts coming which technically

based on market expectations Jerome

Powell should be setting up a rate cut

for September.

So Jackson Hole should be bullish and

maybe he won't get sued if he's bullish

and I think Trump's trying to play that

4D chess. So I don't think we'll see a

lawsuit until after Jackson Hole. If we

do see a lawsuit, it will certainly come

with a hey, we'll end this if you just

step down.

Kind of crazy. Kind of crazy. So, uh,

anyway, remember, use coupon code

J-Hole. It's a very big deal. Uh, also

some other affiliates to mention. A lot

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Okay. Yes. Because you've met me now,

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So,

somebody here says, "Chandler says

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inflation without their actual weight on

CPI." I don't know where you posted. I

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nobody's showing goods infl I'm not

showing individual categories. That's

not what I showed in this video. I what

I showed is the entire the entirety of

core goods and services which weighs all

of them

right all of this that's all goods

now uh you know if you're saying like oh

well you know we have to figure out what

the weight of core goods are fine but

the point is this trajectory is just

beginning this is not cherrypicking this

is a crit critical change in the

trajectory of goods inflation, which

without tariffs is right here. And oh

wow, what a surprise. In 2019, we had

positive goods inflation because of

tariffs. Now you have even more extreme

tariffs. And so this trajectory is very

bad.

That's what we're looking at. So, uh,

you know, incredible. Here, somebody

says, "Dang, I didn't know about the AI

editing. been sitting on a few 360

videos because editing is such a

learning curve, right? So, here's the

thing that you have to know with these

360 cameras. You have to know that the

the way you want to edit with them is

as soon as you film a clip, you manually

edit it and forget about the rest.

That's the way you have to do it. So,

I'm going to give you an example. Okay,

so this was the uh this was Splash

Mountain. So, what I did is I filmed

this. I had maybe eight or nine minutes

of footage and as soon as I got off the

ride, I edited the video. I took about 4

minutes or whatever cuz I just went on

the ride. I clip the part that I wanted.

21 seconds and uh

I export it and I manually clip it

together in the app on my iPhone right

there while I'm at the park walking to

the next ride. I export it and I'm done.

I don't want the other 8 minutes of

footage. I'm never going to go look at

the other 8 minutes of footage again. So

now I got the 21 seconds that I want.

And here it is. And you can see it. It's

actually us going down Splash Mountain.

There's Max. Uh, and he's like, "Is is

this clickbait?" Because we kept joking

that some of the drops that they have in

front are clickbait.

>> Really?

>> Really?

>> It's kind of good footage.

>> You see, my meta glasses are soaked.

>> How was it, Max?

>> Your glasses.

>> My glasses are soaked. Uh but anyway,

you know, like that's cool. That that's

the way you've got to work these 360s is

is you've got to export it right away.

Uh and uh and and uh you know, then then

you're then you're done. You don't want

to store all like years of this this

footage, you know, uh like you're going

to go crazy. So because you'll you'll

never go back and look at it. And and I

think that's the worst part uh about

digital cameras is we film all this

stuff but then we never go back and

actually look at it, right? Uh so that

that's the part that I find unfortunate,

I should say. I'll put it that way. Uh

but anyway, so uh okay, good. So what

else do we have here? Then we have

uh can I don't know how to get to this

community thing that somebody's talking

about in the chat. Let me see. Can I do

it? Yeah. No. I I don't know how to do

that. But what you're saying, yeah, but

they are weighted and account for less

than 1% of the CPI. Look. Well, let's

just go to the BLS. Okay. So, B like why

don't you send it to somewhere I can

actually find it. Like link it right

here. You're in the chat. BLS CPI

report. Doesn't make it so complicated

to find what you're talking about. Uh,

so,

uh, okay. So, let's go look at the CPI

because, you know, somebody's bitching

in the chat and so I always like it when

somebody's bitching to go look at what

the underlying crap is that they're

complaining about. So

basically uh CPI is weighted 13% on food

and once we get past food we have energy

is about 6%.

All items less food and energy right

this is core. So look at this. You know

somebody's like oh well the waitings for

the items don't really matter. What are

you smoking dude? Core CPI. core CPI

represents 79.9%

of the inflation waiting. Okay? Like

we're not trying to go into like these

like oh how much is one thing or the

other that one of the reasons why we've

seen such a decline uh in in inflation

is because of shelter. you know, shelter

less inflation is a 60% weight, which is

huge because on a monthly basis, you

know, people's mortgage or their rent is

is a huge component. But what we're

concerned about is what's happening in

the underlying, you know, the 6.7% in

medical care services. Why is why are

airfares up as much as they are? Why

for, you know, the that's that's like

10% right there. Uh and then when we

look at goods, uh you know, so for

example, let's go to broader goods here.

Broader goods. Broader goods. So all

items less food. Let's see. Commodities

less food and energy. Household

furnishings. So household stuff only

sits about three. Commodities less food

and energy. So this is outside of

housing. 19%.

Uh you know these these are big items.

So of course housing makes up a big

portion of this. But uh when you add it

all together, these are big parts of

CPI. And as they accelerate, they bring

the entire index up with them. uh and

that's where we're seeing problems. Now,

of course, housing inflation could

continue to bring us disinflation. But

we would be negative right now, just

like we were in March, if it weren't for

these tariffs. Uh and that's the

problem. You know, if we go back to

where we were in March, where inflation

was heading, we were negative

and we would probably continue to be

negative had it not been for tariffs.

And and so tariffs are very very clearly

showing up. And unfortunately, they're

what what are making Powell too late,

which is the great irony.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this. We'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.