Why Bitcoin is Falling

well Bitcoin is selling off why is this

happening what's going on and what

should you expect going forward for this

trend well there is a lack of a clear

Catalyst for the current sell down at

the time of this recording sitting at

about 62,000 619 we're bouncing around

I've been watching this for about the

last 30 minutes just wondering is this

going to rebound we're getting a little

bit of that green shooting right now but

we did get down to 615 the question is

not what's going to happen though over

the next few minutes the question is

what's going to happen over the next

hours days to weeks when we zoom out on

the hours chart we can see the downtrend

is pretty clear this is the last

downtrend I had drawn and if we go ahead

and expand the size of this line and

then we try to keep the same angle that

we have we're just going to go ahead and

pull that down over here we can see

we're now breaking even below that trend

line so I'm going to go ahead and delete

that trend line now we've used it it's

gone what's actually much more

interesting from a technical point of

view now is that we're probably creating

a head and shoulders pattern here and

given that we Rose into this head and

shoulders pattern that is going to be a

short-term bearish Technical and it does

signal a potential draw down potentially

to that 52 level now this is not to say

that there's anything wrong with Bitcoin

in the long term but when it comes to

investing as much as you might like the

fundamentals of BTC with that hav in

coming up It's always important to pay

attention to the technicals we are

presently 32 days away from the Bitcoin

hav H some people say having some people

say having doesn't really matter we're

seeing the relative strength for Bitcoin

right now trade at similar levels as to

what we saw around 42,000 and of course

we're seeing folks like Michael sailor

double and then double again down by

raising bonds basically raising debt to

go double down on bitcoin and buy more

Bitcoin and so far the market has been

providing that liquidity though I will

say micro strategy sets itself up as a

really interesting stock this morning we

did an analysis where we basically

looked at micro strategy as of February

26th and at the time that I ran the

calculation if you take February 26th

and go from Feb 26th all the way to

where we sit today or sat this morning

you're up about 69% on micro strategy

that compares to just 20% for coinbase

and 16% for Bitcoin over the same time

frame now right now micro strategy's

market cap is 2x the market cap of the

actual underlying Bitcoin that it holds

we broke down the latest micro strategy

Holdings for Bitcoin over at ec.com we

talk about this by the way I am

potentially going to have some crypto

miners at our event in Vegas so if you

haven't yet considered coming to our

Innovation crypto finance and real

estate event it's going to be mostly

about real estate but we're going to

have some special segments on crypto and

Innovation and Robotics and some really

cool things regarding crypto and guest

speakers as well check that out go to

meetkevin.com it's June 21st to 23rd and

we're about to uh announce the hotel

location prices will be going up once we

announce the uh hotel location where

we're doing the conference it's going to

be great but anyway the point is this

premium that you've got on micro

strategy uh over and above what you have

on bitcoin could potentially be one of

the reasons you've recently had to sell

off you did have a hedge fund that

started going short micro strategy when

micro strategy was trading at just a 20

% premium and now it's at a 2X premium

which basically means micro strategy

blew up in their face and they were

shorting it so they got liquidated those

sort of liquidations either are

contributing to the selling off now or

did contribute to the initial selloff

one of the downsides with something like

Bitcoin it's just something to know as a

long-term investor in Bitcoin is while

there is a feature of not having

earnings calls and earnings reports and

catalysts like that a lot of people call

that a feature not a bug one of the

downsides is the lack of catalysts the

lack of additional confirmation yes I

want to keep buying yes those earnings

that in video are amazing give me more

give me more give me more and when you

have a lack of those sort of catalysts

the only thing that actually drives more

buying pressure is prices going up bro

and when prices ain't going up because

you've hit a head and shoulders trading

pattern you could tend to have an

extended draw down until you have a next

Catalyst wave now the biggest Catalyst

wave we had going into this was

obviously the spot Bitcoin ETF or ETP

approval now the reason I say ETP

approval is because you do have some

Democrats uh in Congress and this is not

to be political you all know me I try to

be as neutral as possible but these are

two Democrats who did on March 11th

write a uh dare I say um upset angry

letter about the success of Bitcoin etps

exchange shaded products and they're

writing chair gendler at the SEC

demanding that basically they they they

analyze Brokers for their Communications

with retail investors regarding

cryptocurrency Fair disclosures and

making sure that Brokers aren't implying

Bitcoin is like cash it's obviously very

different from cash right uh a lot of

people would say way better it's maybe

more similar to real money than fiat

currency it's not inflated away so to

speak right but you've got got Senators

here writing letters to the SEC saying

there are deficiencies and how advisers

are disclosing the volatility of uh of

Bitcoin and we need to make sure that

their fiduciary obligations limits on

Leverage custody requirements

disclosures for governance are all

properly disclosed and so what you

really have is this like two-page

complaint letter uh of two Democratic

senators Jack Reed uh and uh Mrs Butler

complaining basically that Bitcoin or

cryptocurrencies could be a pump and

dump or related to other fraudulent

schemes I don't think this was really

necessarily a catalyst I think most

people investing in Bitcoin laugh this

kind of stuff off but it did seem to

correspond with at least some level of

peeking out if you take a look at the

chart again uh that letter was signed on

the 11th which was within 2 days of the

top of BTC we had an intraday uh top on

it looks like uh the 14th here so within

about 3 days so they kind of nailed

almost the top with their letter again I

don't really think the letter meant

anything but it's just something worth

paying attention to that there's always

that chance that you get a little bit

more regulatory requirements but frankly

that's not necessarily a bad thing we've

always looked at uh this ETP launch the

ETF launch as being a

positive Catalyst for Bitcoin and quite

frankly it has been it's been one of the

most successful ETF launches ever you

had 2.7 billion dollar uh flow into uh

digital Assets in uh just the last week

which sorry two weeks ago was $2.7

billion I wrote this down here $2.7

billion flowing in two weeks ago last

week was another record $2.9 billion the

Black Rock ETF is already at $2.4

billion yes you've got grayscale

liquidations I know that comes up but

we've actually been trading ahead of

liquidations of grayscale because a lot

of money that was tied up in grayscale

people at least believed would end up

flowing into uh the exchange traded

products because the fees are way lower

0 to 20 basis points versus 150 basis

points but grayscale is finally

outweighing those liquidations are

finally outweighing inflows and so there

is a sign that maybe some money was

liquidated from grayscale went into the

ETFs and now the money that's being

liquidated from grayscale is going into

Cash maybe people are going risk off I

personally like to see one of the

reasons crypto sells off as uh a an

early warning sign of a riskof trade uh

and so I think there's a potential that

there's some standoffishness here due to

uh the Jerome Powell meeting tomorrow

although that could extend it's worth

noting look at when Bitcoin started

falling in uh

20 21 it actually started falling uh

right around here November the first

week of November 2021 that was about 3

weeks before if I remember correctly the

cues were really uh starting to roll and

that's going off memory so let's see if

we can find that correctly so let's go

to

2021 and we'll go to the end of 2021

right here yeah the peak uh was the 22nd

of November followed by essentially a

double top a month later so so really

bitcoin's selloff came 3 to 7 weeks

before the qes started rolling so I do

think as you go from extreme greed in

markets or a lot of greed at least in

markets to risk off Bitcoin is one of

your early warning signs so you got a

few things going here you've got a

short-term uh technical downspout you've

got a lack of catalyst which hurt you on

the way down if you could otherwise have

good catalysts or past the really good

Catalyst of the ETFs yes you get the

having which is generally associated

with prices going up but then again

price of Bitcoin over time has just like

over the long term always gone up across

store value or there's going to be a

store value that eventually goes up and

both of those beliefs go away as the

price is falling so it becomes less

desirable for people to sort of

speculate on and leverage into they get

a little more risk averse so again maybe

what we're seeing right now is just sort

of a temporary little head and shoulders

maybe we'll actually form out the

shoulder we haven't even done that so we

could trade sideways for a little bit

but there is a potential play at

shorting uh uh some Bitcoin or crypto

exposed uh topics whether or or uh

Securities whether that's something like

a coinbase or otherwise or you just keep

buying the dip if that's what you're

into now something else that's worth

noting is ethereum went through its

successful uh latest it's last upgrade

successfully we are now at uh 122

transactions per second on Layer Two

which is like a 31% increase from last

week which is crazy it's also eight

times the base layer capacity at 15

transaction per second and a ton of

money is being injected into salana me

meme coins it's one of the reasons

you've seen salana just do so incredibly

well the things at $170 it's still up

133% on the 7day though uh it is off of

its recent highs if we look at the

recent highs we did run all the way up

to 202 for a moment but again is this

more systemic a sign of riskof is sort

of the ETF enthusiasm over and is it now

a downtrend into riskof maybe and if it

is that's probably a bad sign for the

NASDAQ and other equities as well and

just really the broader Market going

through a little bit of like a a re like

a gut check so to speak to the

valuations that we've seen and uh and

then of course on the flip side this

could just be the usual kind of typical

Bitcoin Bu The Dip

opportunity and you pick it up from

there the uh long-term investors in

Bitcoin presently seem to believe that

you know price targets for Bitcoin are

easily in the neighborhood of 100 to

$100,000 to $1 million uh of

course it's also not unsurprising

sometimes to see people have positions

in Bitcoin and then argue it's going to

a million knowing full well that they're

going to sell before it gets there so

you kind of have to be careful what what

you're hearing uh I I'm I don't have any

trades uh going right now so I I just

want to be transparent right uh about um

my crypto exposure and equities that I

don't even have any shorts uh in

equities right now uh and and have a few

Longs but that's it so anyway I wanted

to give you that heads up and sort of

what's going on my thoughts hopefully

that's helpful thanks so much for

watching remember to check out the event

at uh meetkevin.com you can also check

out the courses on build your wealth

where I do send my Buy cell alerts price

will be going up on Friday for that

thanks so much goodbye advertise these

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nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin p a financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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