this is a major bitcoin catalyst | next 6 months are critical

Standard Charter has a P sound up of

Bitcoin. Now, we'll look at why they say

that, but it's worth taking a quick

glance at where we sit right now. So, we

did just push up to 110,000

maybe about an hour or so after the

Vietnam deal was announced, which is a

bit of an attempt to break out of this

trend that we've been in since about

miday, which has been a slight

downtrend. Uh and uh last time we had

this sort of downtrend in a longer time

frame, we had a very glorious move

upwards from about 58 to the low 60s all

the way up to 102,000 which was a really

impressive break up almost as impressive

as the break actually more impressive

but still you know symbolic I would like

to mention is also doing very very well.

Somebody astutely said in the comments

on the live stream that this is up now

over 100% since we've mentioned it. It's

a robotics manufacturer. It's come under

some pressure, but boy, it is uh

absolutely kicking butt today. But

anyway, looking at this Bitcoin piece,

take a piece at or take a look at this.

ETF inflows and corporate treasury

buying of BTC are set to exceed the two

uh Q2 level in Q3 Q4. Let's see what

they are saying here, what the details

are. Potential Q3 drivers include

Powell's early replacement. ah okay

rather they're talking about 245,000

as a quantity of buying which they

actually think will lead Bitcoin to rise

up to 135 to $200,000

by the end of the year. So, they're

basically saying Bitcoin to 200K because

of a $245,000

uh level or 245,000

coin buying level per quarter being

exceeded in Q3 and Q4 potentially

because of not only the early

replacement of Powell stable coin

legislation and also we expect the

market to brush off concerns about the

Bitcoin having cycle.

Second half topside to show Bitcoin

having cycle is dead. We expect Bitcoin

to print new all-time highs in the

second half. Boooied by growing ETF

corporate treasury flows thanks to

increased investor flows. We think

Bitcoin has moved beyond the previous

dynamic where prices fell 18 months

after a having cycle which would have

led to price declines in September and

October 25. Now, interestingly, if we

had a recessionary cycle because of uh

really bad job numbers over the next

four jobs report jobs reports because we

get uh July, August, September, October

between now and October 3rd, which is

basically the next four months, right?

If in those next four reports we

indicate some form of recessionary jobs

problem which hopefully we don't knock

on wood there'd be an assumption that

Bitcoin would also get hurt because of

the risk nature associated with Bitcoin

but there I think what they're saying is

absent some form of recessionary dynamic

flows are such that we expect uh Bitcoin

flows uh to essentially push Bitcoin

to a new all-time high of 135,000 in Q3.

three and then 200,000 in Q4.

They think prices could be choppy in

late Q3. They got one hell of a crystal

ball here and in early Q4 amid concerns

about this 18-month pattern. However, we

expect prices to resume their uptrend

supported by continued strong ETF and

Bitcoin Treasury buying. We maintain our

end of the year forecast for 200,000.

Bitcoin previously peaked between 367

and 540 days posth having and this is

the days of posth having where where we

sit now uh in the cycles. So they

somewhat post those highs here for the

2012 cycle 2016 2020 uh and they see uh

potentially ahead of us here that move

up to 200,000

flows are a dominant driver. Bitcoin

reached a fresh all-time high of 112,000

in Q2. This was short of our projected

120, but well above the 85 level at the

start of Q1.

We expect strong inflows to continue.

ETF net buying in Q2 was second only to

that of Q4.

subtracting commodities, futures trading

commission, hedge fund shorts from ETF

flows to derive net quarterly inflows

into ETFs. Q2 inflows were almost

exactly the same as Q4,

marking the strongest quarter on record.

Investor rotation from gold to Bitcoin

was also prevalent in Q2. Net Bitcoin

ETF inflows were 124 billion 12.4

billion, surpassing the 6.9 billion into

gold ETFs. We do not view Bitcoin as a

geopolitical hedge. So the fact that

Bitcoin is outflowing or sorry is

outpacing inflows

uh into gold ETFs is encouraging.

That's actually pretty big. Right.

During during the drama or the chaos of

the Iran strikes and the nuclear crisis

that we were dealing with, we saw more

flows into Bitcoin than we saw into

gold.

Bitcoin treasuries operated by

corporations that buy Bitcoin purely on

their balance sheet has seen rapid

growth. As we've highlighted, these

corporates have become strong drivers of

flows. While Micro Strategy is the

dominant player, imitators have been

gaining ground. That's true. Everybody

wants to be like Micro Strategy right

now. I mean, kind of like if you think

about it, it's pretty freaking easy,

right?

You don't actually have to do anything

as a company. Like it's not hard to buy

Bitcoin. There's no, you don't really

need corporate value or corporate sales

staff or, you know, corporate

administration to do it. It's pretty

straightforward.

Uh, it's not like you have to go remodel

the Bitcoin after you buy it, unlike the

stress that's involved in real estate.

That's okay. That's why there's money

there for us to be made. But if you get

stressed out easily, remember folks,

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All right. We estimate that non- buying

we we estimate that net buying by

non-micro strategy Bitcoin treasuries

was 56,000 in Q2. That's the net buying.

Okay. Just shy of the 69 of Micro

Strategy in Q2. Wow. What? Dude, that's

a lot that Micro Strategy is pumping in.

Are you serious?

Oh, wait. We estimated that net buying

by non Bitcoin treasuries. Oh. Oh, okay.

Okay. Okay. Okay. So, this is total

corporate buying of 107K BTC, which

would be in Q2

out of 245

uh out of 245K,

which means corporates

equal Oh, my daughter took my

calculator.

I let her get away with it. It's all

right. We'll use my phone. I much

prefer, honestly, to use the $5

calculator. 107 divided by 245 is 44% of

buying pressure in Bitcoin is corporate

buying.

Micro Strategy represents 69 thou. Of

course, 69 out of 245. Oh, that's nice.

Which is 28.2%.

Interesting.

uh their holdings are 5.5x larger than

anyone else combined basically the

others combined for corporate buying. So

Micro Strategy is still dominant but the

buying pace is picking up of other

corporates is what they're basically

saying. So uh MSTR still holds 5.5x the

corp treasury of any other co combined

but corporate buying now

uh only 69 out of 107 equals

MSTR 64.5% Micro Strategy right so in

other words what they're saying is even

though Micro Strategy holds so much.

It's no longer just Micro Strategy

buying as a corporate. However, Micro

Strategy still makes up 28% of the

buying pressure, which is basically in

line with what we saw in 2024. So, this

buying pressure, you you really have to

believe that that buying pressure keeps

going. If there's a macro problem like a

recession or whatever, and Micro

Strategy can't buy anymore, 28% of your

buying volume evaporates. That's why I

think there's there's such a risk like

the the biggest risk to Bitcoin is not

Bitcoin itself. It's it's Michael Sailor

bubbling it up and then and then it it

crashing hard. And that's not trying to

be anti- strategy or whatever. It's just

basically saying you're you're building

a debt bubble basically that's propping

up this underlying value. It's this sort

of cyclical nature of the more their

stock goes up, the more Bitcoin they can

buy on leverage. And the more Bitcoin

they buy on leverage, the more Bitcoin

goes up and the more their stock goes

up, which enables more of the cycle.

That cycle will come to an end at some

point that will create a generational

buying opportunity for Bitcoin. But the

question is, you know, if if Bitcoin

goes, you know, I'll just say like to

500K,

uh, you know, and then it goes down to

300K and people are like, look,

generational buying opportunity. Well,

okay, then 100K was still pretty cheap,

right? Relatively, right? Uh, but like

that potential still has to get squeezed

out. So, you kind of have to be prepared

for that. Uh, and that's why I think

watching macro is really important,

especially if you end up getting macro

problems between 2028 and 2033 because

that's when a lot of that micro strategy

debt comes due. You actually don't see a

lot of their debt come due until the end

of the decade and the turn of the

decade. Turn of the decade. That sounds

weird. And they forgot to capitalize

this. We expect Bitcoin treasuries as a

whole to buy more Bitcoin in Q3 than

they did in Q2. That's actually really

that's that's quite bullish. Uh quite

bullish flows.

and that you know comparing to Goldie

that's US policy and

regulatory developments may also drive

Bitcoin price gains in Q3. Recent

indicators for President Trump will be

that he will name a replacement for

Powell in October. One such driver that

could lead markets to price in more Fed

rate cuts sooner. Uh the I think there's

also a risk to assuming that price that

rate cuts automatically equal

uh more

buying. I usually like helicopter money,

you know, when they're printing money.

Although they say rising US term premium

is cor treasury term premiums correlated

with Bitcoin prices. Yeah, term premium.

Okay, we get one step removed here.

Regulatory front, we get the Genius Act

13F filings are likely to show a further

broadening of sovereign buying. So that

would be country buying. That's

impressive. Ah this is a good graphical

representation of uh corporate

treasuries over the last 90 days showing

more others versus just micro strategy.

So it's no longer just Michael Sailor.

Other drivers the having cycle they

think will be a big nothing burger. We

will watch for selling by long-term to

determine if this is indeed the case.

Long-term holders sold when we reached a

peak in early 2021. long-term holders

sold 600,000 Bitcoin a month. For

comparison, maximum so far in this cycle

have been 400,000 Bitcoin and 200,000

Bitcoin in 2025 January. So, in other

words, you're seeing less of that

long-term selling. I mean, yeah, absent

macro risk, this is actually a really

bullish standard charter piece

suggesting that these flows by

corporates are just widening. You've got

regulatory bullishness. You wonder

though how much of that is already

priced in. But long-term holders or

hodlers are selling less than ever

before. So so far

really if you overcome the having cycle

fears,

they don't really see a negative caddy

here. Although they do think at the end

of Q3 you could get some choppiness

which just conveniently sort of aligns

with the uh the the sort of unemployment

catalyst. Like will the next four It's

not about tomorrow's unemployment report

or the next one. It's about the average

of the next three to four employment

reports. Three for the Fed rate decision

in September and then four for for you

know where my head is. But anyway, this

honestly

you can't look at that and say that is

not bullish information for Bitcoin. Uh

impressive. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Papraath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber,

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.