CRAP what the Fed **JUST** did

Well, another Federal Reserve meeting in

the books and what Powi Wowi him, but

he's a very talented guy.

>> Yep, we know. Thanks, Trump. Trump just

came out of nowhere there. I was just

putting down my cup of coffee. But

anyway, what Powi Wowi just told us is

frankly just bullish the economy. Now,

we went into this meeting thinking that

Powell was going to give us 25 basis

points of cuts, that he would signal QT

within 60 days, the end of QT, and that

we probably end up seeing 10-year

Treasury go up to 4.05%. I even sent

trade alerts in the courses around this.

And folks, what we got was incredible.

We got 4.05 on the 10-year Treasury. We

got 25 basis points of cuts, but we even

got something a little bit more bullish.

We got the vacuum cleaner of money will

end on December 1st and they're going to

take extra money that is left over from

mortgage maturities on their uh you know

mortgage bond securities MBS portfolio

and they're going to buy Treasury bills

with that which is not as bullish or

stimulative as them going and printing

money and buying of them every uh

duration of Treasury bond but it is a

way of them reinvesting money into the

economy. So, it's what I call indisguise

stimulus. So, Powell's trying to put on

this hard face of going, "Ah,

everything's fine. We haven't seen any

real bad news yet." But they're really

worried that the labor market could fall

off a cliff. They're just not seeing it

yet, which is exactly what we expected

that the Federal Reserve would talk

about, that the Federal Reserve would

end up coming out. Pal will end up

telling us, "Hey, we'll end up getting

we we're going to down I mean, look,

look what we wrote. We literally wrote

that he would downplay private credit

risks." Guess what he did? We would we

ended up getting a downplay of credit

risks. Labor at break evens. He told us

the break even rate is basically zero.

And what's the labor rate right now at

with uh with ADP reads? About 14,000.

So, that's essentially why we got the

10-year Treasury to 4.05.

Not a surprise at all. Now, what did we

get from Powell that's broadly bullish

for this market? And why did I send out

a buy the dip alert in the middle of the

presser and in alignment with our plans

in the B Kevin report? Because, well,

frankly, that was broadly bullish. And

this is exactly the MMO of basically

what happens every single Fed meeting.

People get nervous before Powell comes

out. They get nervous while he's talking

and they get bullish afterwards. That's

why I sent the alerts I did. And

remember, in case you want those alerts

all the time, get that Meet Kevin

membership. All eight courses,

potentially a tax writeoff, every trade

alert, the top 10 stocks to buy, every

alpha report every morning. Use that

coupon code Schumer Siesta. It expires

tonight. We'll be raising the price.

>> Coupon linked below. So with that said,

what did we get specifically out of

Powell today? Well, we actually got

bingo barely. Right at the end, we got

bingo. We got inflation outside of

tariffs. Nominal. Yes, we already know

that. In fact, he gave us a number. He

thinks that inflation is sitting at

about 2.3 to 2.4%. Outside of that one

timed longertermed effect of inflation

from tariffs, once those tariffs feed

through, no more tariff inflation. talks

about housing inflation continuing to

come down, which is really a bullish

anchor for inflation continuing to come

down. It's really hard to argue that

inflation is going to somehow second

wave. And that's why I think over the

next 10 years, well, probably 8 years

from now, we'll see interest rates come

down substantially over time. But no

fall off a cliff on the labor market.

And this is exactly what we saw in the

ADP data that came out on Tuesday. This

is why we talked about this. I even sent

a special note to course members

yesterday. Go folks, that ADP report is

going to have Powell go bullish on the

economy today is the ADP report told us

we're actually probably above break

evens. Now, does that mean we might end

up seeing the economy fall off a cliff

with uh you know a labor market that

ends up driving substantially more

layoffs like we've seen with the

announcements from Huelet Packard,

Target, Walmart doesn't want to hire,

Goldman doesn't want to hire, Amazon's

laying off. Of course, that could

happen. But what did Powell tell us? and

told us exactly what he thought we

thought he was going to say that the

labor market right now is in balance and

we're just not seeing that weakness show

up in the labor market right now via

unemployment claims or any kind of

weekly data. That's one of the reasons

why on uh our bingo sheet I literally

wrote stabilizing labor uh and I wrote

it twice over here break evens near

zero. That was my prediction. That's

what he said. We also wrote down stable,

no cliff unemployment. We got all of

those. We nailed all of those and got

bingo across the bottom uh uh row there,

which was great. Now, we didn't get a

direct mention of the beverage curve,

but he basically told us as much as what

we needed to know regarding the

components of it. So, broadly, you got a

bullish Powell here, an economically

bullish Powell. And that's why one of

the reasons uh during the meeting we

briefly saw the market sell off because

Powell told us, hey, we don't know if

we're going to have to cut in December.

This is a way of Powell just being

bullish about the market. In fact, right

now, we only see a 67.9%

chance of a cut in December. That

plummeted from 92%

chance before the meeting. We had a 92%

chance of a rate cut in December before

the meeting. that has now collapsed to

just 67.9%.

Now, he does say this could change, that

layoffs are not in the initial claims

yet, and they take time to show up and

that we're watching and monitoring these

layoffs carefully. But right now, we're

somewhere between 3 to 4%, neutral is

somewhere around here. We've already cut

150 basis points. There's no big reason

to cut more. Now, this is why I said

short-term bearish on mortgage plays and

yields likely to go up after Powell.

It's exactly what happened. It was in

our playbook with course members in the

Me Kevin Alpha report. Now,

Jerome Powell goes on to say that

interest rates really don't affect data

centers. And I hate this phrase, but he

says this is different when he gets

asked about AI spending today compared

to the dot bubble. He says that in

the.com bubble, we were spending money

on ideas and that today we were spending

money on corporations with real

earnings. And in fairness, if you

compare back to Cisco, the earnings of

Cisco were absolute trash in the dotcom

bubble. And if you look at the earnings

of Nvidia, with the margins that Nvidia

has, it's absolutely mindblowing how

different margins are today at companies

like Nvidia compared to Cisco back then.

Now, does that mean we're not going to

end up seeing a bubble? Not necessarily.

At some point, the party will be over.

But look at those margins at Nvidia. A

true financial analyst will look at

these margins and go, "Holy smokes, that

is the largest PP I have seen in my

life."

>> Big PP.

>> 56.4%

on a chip designing company and a

software company. Nvidia doesn't even

make the damn chips. They're just the

freaking middleman. They come up with

the designs, they send it to Taiwan

Semi, and then they sell the chips

directly to the end user. It's

remarkable. And it's why they have so

much freaking profit and why I've raised

my price target for Nvidia for the near

term. Now, do I think it's going to keep

going for 10 years? No. That's why

Nvidia is not on my top 10 stocks to buy

for the next 10 years. Do I have seven

figures of Nvidia stock in my personal

portfolio and I'm am I personally

jumping up and down about the fact that

Nvidia has now crossed $27 per share?

It's up another 3% today on a $5

trillion company. Hell yeah, my friends.

Hell yeah.

>> [laughter]

>> and I'll send you trade alerts when and

if I finish trimming this puppy or keep

trimming it or whatever I want to do

with it. You'll get it in the meat

Kevin. Now that said, what else did we

get out of Powell? Well, we get Hey,

that that next cut in December is not a

foregone conclusion. It's far from a

foregone conclusion. That's what tanked

the odds of actually getting another

rate cut in December. Now, part of that

is because we ended up getting Schmidt

suggest that we should not be cutting

rates at all. Myin of of course Myron

comes out, you know, Donald Trump's

shield bending the knee, you know,

although I've started to respect him a

little bit. Uh, he comes out and says,

"Hey, we need a 50 basis point cut." And

so, it's no surprise that you end up

getting somebody else to counter that.

So, you get this, "Hey, we should have

50." You get somebody else going, "We

should have zero." We get 25. In my

opinion, are we going to get 25 in

December? Probably. We'll probably get

25 in December. Does Powell want to

promise that now? No, of course not. But

it's all going to come down to what we

see in that weekly unemployment claims

data. Uh, which right now we're not

getting unemployment claims data because

the government shut down. So, we'll wait

and see when that actually comes up.

That's why I say it's a bearish catalyst

when the government actually reopens

because you're going to get that flood

of data. Instead, you need to start

coming to this channel every Tuesday

freaking morning. Now, why? Because what

are you going to get Tuesday morning?

Weekly ADP data. If you haven't been

paying attention yet to the weekly ADP

data, make sure you start paying

attention. It comes out Tuesday. Uh I

also broke down the weekly ADP data in

the data tab of the uh the Meet Kevin

app. So, if you download the Meet Kevin

app, you can see this data. I'll post it

there pretty regularly. Uh but here as

an example, on Tuesday I posted the ADP

announcement that uh the Fed was

secretly getting this. Then they got

rugged probably because of Trump. Now

they're just releasing it to everyone

publicly. But anyway, 14,250 jobs,

that's technically above the break even

that Powell just forecast. So we would

need to see a weakness uh to probably

closer to zero to really encourage more

cuts. And so that's your forwardlooking

indicator. Now Tuesday jobs data. We got

to pay attention as every Tuesday now.

And this is why if you don't have it

yet, download the meet Kevin app. You

get the data tab and daily wealth for

free. Alpha report and stocks. That's uh

that's obviously uh you know for course

members. Uh that's by the way the same

app we're going to be building in the uh

Reinvest AI in that same app which will

be really cool. And we'll probably

rebrand it all over time. Reinvest. You

can invest in my startup uh our Reinvest

AI product. If you want you could learn

more by going to reinvest.co PO uh or

houseack.com. It's the same company.

Houseack owns all of the AI technology.

So, if you're an investor in Houseack,

you're already in on this. You could

always invest more if you wanted to. Go

check out the offering circular. Uh go

read about what we're doing with AI. You

could read about our renovations. You

could look at our real estate, the

actual assetbacked real estate that we

have. Uh and then you could look at our

artificial intelligence plans and our

time frames for this app as well. if you

want to diversify into AI. I personally

think you're buying in at a uh real

estate valuation because that's when we

got the valuation done for the company

and that's what we're raising on. I'm

buying more stock myself in it uh

because I'm so bullish on it. But then

again, I'm a biased CEO. You know,

there's risk with every investment. So,

continuing on, other notes that we have

in the Meet Kevin app, our tools support

demand. It takes a while for tariffs to

hit consumers. We have once tariffs are

in, they're baked in. we go back to 2%

inflation. Consumers don't care. Uh,

this still frustrates people. This is

basically a way of saying that most

people don't understand how inflation

actually works. Prices feel very high,

but inflation's actually doing really

well, which is why the Federal Reserve

can cut rates in favor of the labor

market. Somebody just donated here in

the chat to say there's a rumored Wells

Fargo is going to lay off 20 to 40,000

workers. You have to remember the

biggest risk to this economy is that we

do get a real sharp increase in layoffs

that end up leading to a surge in

unemployment claims and a true

normalization of the beaver rich curve

because if you get that that's when you

end up in an unemployment recession.

That is the big risk. This is why I

personally I'm bullish on the market

right now through government reopening

and I really hope we don't get a lot of

layoffs between now and then because

once we start getting that unemployment

claims data you know things could really

rapidly shift. I think a really big red

flag for you should frankly be uh

fiserve. You know, fiserve is in my

opinion a really big indicator of not

just potentially false promises from the

prior executive leadership but also a

sign of the consumer. Right? The the

fact is that ferf processes upwards of

25,000 transactions per per second. They

are part of the financial plumbing of

the United States banking sector. And

for them to be plummeting, especially

when they have high exposure to

e-commerce, restaurants, and retail

sales is a sign that there is some

weakening happening amongst the

consumer. So, it's no surprise you're

seeing consumer-led companies sell off

today. Whether it's uh the Cheesecake

Factory, other restaurants, you know,

Cheesecake's down 8% today, Macy's

negative, Best Buy negative, Six Flags

is down 9%.

You could see the two-tiered nature of

our economy literally in stock prices.

Look at Six Flags down 9%, Dave and

Busters down 5%, Restoration Hardware

down 4%. Yet Nvidia up 3.4%. You see the

two-tiered nature of the economy here.

And if we continue to get these layoffs,

we will have an unemployment crisis and

it will take a decade to get back. Is

that going to happen tomorrow? Probably

not. And that's what the Fed is reacting

to right now. They're saying, "Look,

we're going to insurance cut right now,

but are we really worried about the

employment market falling off a cliff

right now?" No, we're not. Okay, maybe

that'll end up being a mistake. Are they

worried about private credit? Well,

maybe they should be because the

International Monetary Fund basically

says we're in a freaking bubble. The

International Monetary Fund says that

stocks are at least 10% overvalued right

now. not as bad as it was during the

dotcom bubble where we had 20% 20% level

of overvaluedness. But the IMF is

literally worrying about the amount of

exposure that our big banks have right

now to

non-financial banks or non-bank

financial institutions. And that if

collateral values fall in private

credit, hedge fund exposure, private

credit exposure, and some of these

subprime lending things like what we saw

with First Brands and Triricolor, we

could end up seeing bank solveny ratios

get substantially hit and massive

adverse scenarios to the US banking

system, especially since 90% of all

lending to these non-bank financial

institutions is conducted by not small

banks, folks, large banks. That's a

really big red flag. So, there are

serious risks.

Like, this is very important to

understand. There are real risks,

massive risks in labor, massive risks in

private credit. The only way we can

really get accelerating off the ground

here and sort of have that bulk landing,

if you will, where like you're coming in

to land the plane, uh, and then you're

like, "Nope, just kidding. We're going

to go full throttle and we're going to

go up again." The only way you could get

that is the labor market going up again.

Even Powell says that. He says, "Look,

the best thing we could do right now is

support the labor market so we can

actually stick that soft landing and

come up off that ground." To me, I love

the plane analogy. I literally have a

video of me pulling off a plane analogy

just like what I've just described in a

$13 million jet. in a $13 million jet. I

break out of the clouds, come in for a

landing in Santa Barbara, and you see me

throw the throttle full force in. This

is Powell. Literally, this is a perfect

analogy. Powell says, "We are flying in

the fog right now." He uses those words

and he says, "You slow down when you're

in the fog." So, this is me flying a jet

in the fog. And what we're hoping is

that we can come out of that damn fog

and we could see beautiful blue skies

ahead. That's the hope. Are there

problems? Private credit, weak labor.

Absolutely, there are problems. But I

watch my hand. You're going to see my

hand go full throttle. That's juicing

rates. You gas the economy. You juice

rates. You go full throttle right before

you land and hit the ground and you take

off again, baby. That's called a bulked

landing. You don't want to land this

plane. You want to keep flying the jet.

That's what you want. You got a jet

engine of the American economy. You

don't want to bet against America. You

want to go full throttle on this puppy.

And you don't want to crash. So, let's

let's see it here, baby. Runway 7 coming

into Santa Barbara. Give me that full

throttle, BABY. JUICE ME. OH, YEAH. LOOK

AT THAT HAND GO FORWARD. M. And then

what happens? Before your wheels touch

the ground, you start flying again. This

is literally the perfect analogy for our

economy.

We do not want to smack that runway. We

want to go flying. Look how beautiful

this is. That's what's on the other end

of this. If we can get through this

disaster, this uh uh you know, this like

potential private credit risk or labor

risk. We could go flying again. Look,

I'm even oversp speeding my flaps in

this example here because we're just

going to fly hot, baby. And that's part

of what we're seeing with uh with with

real GDP estimates. I mean, look at the

Atlanta Fed. There's this is the first

time over the last month that we are

actually starting to see the blue chip

consensus for GDP forecast climbing. The

blue chip consensus has always been way

below the Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate

and it's now starting to climb. So, as

long as we can climb out without

smacking into the ground by hitting some

kind of unemployment recession, we could

be Gucci here. And for the near term,

it's bullish. So, I'm optimistic. Uh I'm

hopeful. You know, I'm not like, oh,

let's go all in on margin and, you know,

lever up. You know, I'm cautious, but

I'm cautiously optimistic. And, uh, I

just hope we don't fall off a cliff with

these layoffs. the the the risk is when

some companies start laying off, you get

the game theory, right? We talked about

this the other day. You get game

theoryism that happens with layoffs

where if one company lays off to pump

their margins, other companies would be

dumb not to lay off. And the problem is

when everybody starts laying off, that's

when you end up with the pooper dupers

because then the broad economy ends up

suffering because consumers don't have

money to spend anymore. That's the big

problem and big risk factor and big

danger. So, with all of that said, uh,

make sure to go check out Reinvest,

check out our AI if you want. You can

learn, uh, more about it all over at

reinvest.com or houseack.com. It's the

same company. Uh, we've had the best

fund raise, uh, month so far this year.

I believe we're well over seven figures

now for fundraising. Uh, which is a

fantastic month for House Hack and

Reinvest here. Uh, and then of course

check out the, uh, Meet Kevin Alpha

report. I think we actually might be

having our best month on the Meek Kevin

alpha report as well because people are

loving what we're doing in the alpha

report. They're loving the buy sell

alerts. They're loving uh the setups in

the morning for trading and uh you know

what what what to look for even with

fundamental analysis you know not just

traders in there but people who are like

Kevin I want deep dive fundamentals. I

don't want to sit here and do the

fundamentals myself. I want somebody to

just tell it tell it to me like it is.

That's what you get uh at me.com. So go

check it out. Use that coupon code

humorest. Why not advertise these things

that you told us here? I feel like

nobody else knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.