MASSIVE Stimulus Checks sent to Chinese | Economic Collapse

stimulus checks are back this is not

something I thought I would be covering

for China yes stimulus checks have just

been announced for quote the poor before

their National Day ministries of finance

and civil Affairs are apparently going

to offer living subsidies to dis

disadvantaged groups including very poor

people and orphans local authorities are

trying to get this money out before

October 1st this is very very rare you

usually you only see stimulus from the

top down in China and this sort of

exacerbates the deflationary Spiral that

you've been facing in China we'll get

into some more details on these checks

in just a moment but consider this for a

moment what's really important right now

in China are the expectations of further

policy support uh analysts and experts

on China say that right now this sort of

stimulus bazooka we got over the last 24

hours from The People's Bank of China is

not enough to change market dynamics

just yet in fact if you just take a look

at the hangsang index this is sort of

your uh yeah I think it's a 52 or 58 uh

constituents uh that make up somewhere

around 80% of the Chinese market cap any

if you take a look at them yesterday

morning well I mean their version of

today when their Market opened they were

going to be up somewhere around 4% but

take a look at this the market already

sold that 4% off down to just 68 basis

points of gains which don't get me wrong

it's still positive but you could see

you went straight down Futures were the

rest of the difference here but anyway

look at the niay over here the Nay also

ran initially fell ran into lunch fell

ran fell just couldn't keep it up uh you

did have the docks over in Germany start

rotating at least towards the positive

direction it did rotate up yesterday on

the news of this Chinese stimulus their

Market's obviously still open at this uh

point in time but uh only uh uh well

sitting at 32 basis points so you're not

even up you had oil rally yesterday uh

oil rallied a about 2% now it's down

almost 2% again oil and the

international blend Brent right here so

it's almost like markets are really

skeptical of this Chinese stimulus that

is this actually going to be enough uh

to keep the Chinese economy out of a

recession if you look at gold the answer

is probably no I mean you just hit

another record high look at this

2682 right now we're almost at $2,700 an

ounce for gold it's been an incredible

mover now some other facts to look at

and uh and details to understand

regarding the stimulus is that deflation

is is just unfortunately for China very

structural now I see in the comments a

lot of people are hoping that we'll have

deflation in the United States but

deflation is self-perpetuating

self-fulfilling and it's usually

associated with a recession it's usually

associated with you losing your job so

you know we look at this as like oh but

prices will be lower great but you won't

be able to afford anything because you

won't have work this deceleration is is

very bad that you're seeing in China and

frankly it's Gathering momentum it's not

slowing down it's basically getting

worse faster so yes hopefully this

latest stimulus bazooka that we've seen

can help China get ahead uh but so far

the more China stimulates to build out

capex the more you create a deflationary

spiral of more Manufacturing more

potential manufacturing jobs and more

deflation as you now have created more

competition even though the Market's not

asking for that that's why now you're

getting a fiscal policy response of okay

well let's give poor people checks

that's great and could be a good chunk

of money for some I don't think it'll be

this High I think they'll really broaden

out how many people receive these but

there are currently

4.74 million uh extremely poor uh in

China and uh they're allocating right

now about four uh oops let's see it here

there we go a little oopsy doopy 22

billion so if we take $22 billion and we

divide it by

4.74 one two 3 million people that could

be as much as about $4,600 per each of

those people now given that China has a

population of over about 1.5 billion

people I would suspect that more than

just 4.7 million are going to be

eligible for these checks and so

therefore the checks will probably be

closer to something we saw during covid

which in China was closer to about

$500 uh in the United States we had

stimulus of somewhere around $6,000 per

person on average uh anyway national day

is a major holiday it's usually a

holiday that sees a lot of travel and

consumption so they're hoping that'll

sort of offset the property slump and

sort of the pretty gloomy stock market

you've had out there you do you are

starting to see Central Bankers are

actually sort of appreciating this idea

of like okay cool yeah maybe if we could

just pump the stock market to alltime

highs we can kind of like keep the

economy out of recession and frankly so

far it's working I mean look at the

United States for example uh Atlanta fed

now real GDP data uh showing us at a

2.99% estimate for Q3 GDP we do get uh a

GDP report tomorrow so pay attention to

that and wow we're pricing in 59% chance

right now of getting a 50 basis point

cut in November already that's pretty

remarkable but uh tomorrow September

26th at 5:30 in the morning we'll be

getting a GDP annualized quarter over

quarter now keep in mind that's just the

third read for Q2 so it's kind of old

data it's not really going to help us a

lot same thing for the GDP price data

for Q2 I think what's going to be a

little bit more useful and probably more

likely to move the market is at that

same time we're going to get

unemployment claims and continuing

claims which we're expecting to be

224,000 1.82

6 million so we'll see we will get

durable orders and cap Goods but I don't

think those are going to be as uh

pressing as those unemployment claim

numbers this all comes at the same time

as now China has apparently launched the

first ICBM into International Water

since like the 80s which is kind of

crazy to see uh it's also a little bit

scary because it's kind of like wait a

minute why are you doing this China it's

like they're trying to show us uh that

they too can be a

boss uh not great great uh but then

you've also got uh some more

expectations obviously that this is just

the beginning of more easing for example

they cut their um medium loan facility

rates down to 2% from 2.3 it's a 30 Bas

basis point cut that might not mean a

lot to you so I'm just going to put it

this way it's the largest cut since 2016

uh then uh you know the yuan is

obviously strengthening on this because

the United States is is you know cutting

rates and their concerns potentially

over recession or not uh where you know

they are stimulating now actively on

both actually now a fiscal and uh

economic side uh and uh there's some

talk that they might end up moving to uh

ending like reducing rates that people

get on their deposits uh and not just

people but also corporations they

haven't done that yet but there's some

talk that they might end up doing that

uh and if they do that you could then

really see uh maybe some inflows into

spending is a theory or it'll just

people make people even more nervous

because that's what happens during

deflationary times people get even more

nervous and they purposefully stop

spending so we'll see but anyway some

more info there uh markets continue to

look for any kind of signs that they can

regarding recession in unemployment

claimed numbers I personally have said

it before I'll say it again I think it's

kind of nonsensical to look at

unemployment claim numbers mostly

because you generally don't see a large

wave of unemployment until you're

already in a recession you don't see

those unemployment claims until it's

already too late uh so we'll see

but what would be good is seeing the

opposite right let's see those 27 weeks

unemployed and longer start declining

again let's start seeing these

unemployment claim numbers come in even

lower those are all things that could

potentially reiterate that hey you know

maybe things are getting better not

worse right now if we look at the 27

weeks unemployed we can see you know

pretty solid uptake over here on the

right and if you zoom out you always get

an uptake like that in recession you

generally don't see the uptakes absent

recession so again I mean you had a

little uptick over here in like 63 but

uh it looks like our magnitude is a

little larger over here but we'll see

the where the trajectory of these

numbers goes now will determine how much

markets try to price in recession do

keep in mind that very few people

actually think we're with certainty

going to have a recession here which is

actually exactly what I would expect

going into into a recession is most

people aren't going to think we're in a

recession yet uh let's go find out it

was the conference board that did a

reading on this uh take a look at this

uh okay expectations index based on

consumer short-term Outlook declined to

81.7 but remains above 80 a reading

below 80 is usually the threshold of a

recession ahead okay perfect the

proportion of consumers anticipating a

recession over the next 12 months

remained low so not quite in recession

category yet at least regarding the

sentiment data but certainly going to be

data that we're going to watch and this

is exactly what they're trying to U-turn

in China where they're trying to get

ahead of this miserable sentiment let's

see what happens as time goes on why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising in see go congratulations

man you have done so much people love

you people look up to you Kevin P there

Financial an and YouTuber meet Kevin

always great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show shall not be deemed

endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also o

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house hack nor am I presently acting as

a market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house Haack to

always read the PPM at house.com