**THIS** CONFIRMS WE’RE IN A RECESSION | STOCK CRASH

so bloomberg is now reporting that the

surge in stocks that followed the fed

decision proved quite short-lived not

only was it short-lived but it was like

a joke i mean it was like an hour at the

end of the day yesterday boom rug pull

right after that this is very different

from what we saw in march in march we

saw a two-week rally after the federal

reserve meeting and it seems like that

hopium did not last people have lost

confidence in jpow

now bloomberg is going in here saying

that just after a day after notching the

biggest rally in two years the s p 500

had headed towards its worst session

since june of 2020 remember june of 2020

was actually when we had sort of a

summer crash because we ended up getting

a resurgence of covet we were just

getting ready to reopen after may and

things were looking really good in

markets but we got this new surge and

was like oh no

second wave fears you know this was well

before delta right

95 of companies in the s p 500 are down

uh when we look at the heat maps they're

just all red the nasdaq 100 is on track

for one of its sharpest u-turns

ever and that's kind of interesting to

look at because when you get these sorts

of volatile movements

you know you're in a bear market that

these are the definitions of bear

markets in fact let me give you the

times that we've had these sorts of

swings before and you know we've seen

charts like this before and we keep

getting more and more of them it's just

more and more evidence that we're in a

bear market

and all of the times that you've had

swings like this before they've been

bear market swings

uh again that's a bad thing

right

so keep that in mind like this is what a

bear market feels like and it doesn't

mean it has to end uh personally i still

think it's you know it's a little good

time to

focus on that quantity rather than that

price but take a look at this

got it lost it nasdaq showing wild

swings in 24 hours this year take a look

at the highlights at the bottom there so

you get a positive three and a half and

a positive three point four percent day

the very next day

you end up down four point five and four

point three percent uh you know resp

respective to that that prior day there

and look at when these sorts of dates

actually happen here's the scary thing

this is how you know you're in a bear

market that should be obvious by now

though look at the dates

march 13th 2020 bear market

the 2000.com bubble bear market and then

the only other time the 2008 recession

october and november of 08. like if

you're looking for an opportunity where

it's like

tell me when can i go by pain

you got your pain you got your wish and

i ain't talking about charles pain

either i'm talking about real pain the

kind of pain where people are like i

gotta sell just because i'm exhausted

i'm exhausted that things are going up

and down i'm tired of the pain of

worrying about my portfolio so what do

they do rather than hold or huddle i

sell and retail capitulation

probably be picking up after we break

the psychological support levels which

unfortunately means potentially more

pain ahead

or it's an opportunity it's one of those

that's for sure

doubts now exist that policymakers will

be able to actually deal with uh

inflation

and now we have the real prospect and

concern that the market is beginning in

beginning to price in stagflationary

fears see some folks are saying oh no

it's j pal's fault because he said we're

going to do 350 bp hikes one now and

then two thereafter

but

that's

already been priced in by the market as

of monday as of monday the market had

already been pricing in 350 bp hikes

so the market now turning worse even

after the pricing into those three bp

hikes is really a way of saying

we just think that no matter what the

fed does

it's not going to be enough

shares of companies like etsy and

shopify tumbled on weaker than expected

quarterly earnings and forecasts

deepening the concern that the pace of

online shopping has slowed and creating

the concern that this could be the

beginning stage of recessionary changes

in spending now

fine but we've also known about the

e-comm shift away for quite a while so

there's some real questions there as are

we going to see that

you know plummet now in ecom spend end

up causing pain in service spend or you

know if people see their wealth

disappear or they going to spend less

money going out to movies and

restaurants or on travel

tbd on that either way it's pretty

painful

so oil though interestingly and this is

actually kind of fascinating oil is

actually

falling uh or it has been this morning

let's see uh oh never mind it you turn

back

okay never mind uh oil's no longer

falling it was and now it's actually up

about a percent nice now one of the

reasons and this was more

more expected usually when the stock

market sells up you get a little bit of

this flight to safety and oftentimes

those are commodities which that was

expected i was kind of surprised that

oil was actually selling off with those

earlier

you get a flight to safety in either

bonds or commodities so it's not a

surprise to see now brent at 111 dollars

but this is quite high we've been hoping

oil would head down unfortunately the

acceleration of russia towards victory

day in their attacks in eastern ukraine

aren't going to help especially with

threats of that german

russian oil embargo

10-year treasury now sitting at 3.05

this is the highest level we've seen all

year we knew we were going to get to

three percent but now the question is

how high are we going to go are we going

to go to 3.5 are we going to settle at 3

percent 3 percent ironically is starting

to look very attractive for a lot of

people and this is why you're getting a

lot of sort of by the dipping uh in in

the bond market

uh

but the the the flip side is you get by

the dipping in the in the bond market uh

you know you have that real potential of

getting burned because if you buy the

tip in the bond market uh and then

yields rise you get burned on the value

of your bond so really

it wouldn't be surprising to see more

people just say look i'm either

commodities or i'm cash

you see everybody every time i say cash

i always think it's funny people are

like oh cash that's bad in inflationary

times well wait a minute is it though

because if you're not using the cash to

buy stuff like goods and services or

energy like oil and gas then you can

preserve cash for buying stocks and if

they're losing value then you're

actually gaining because of inflation

it's kind of a weird twisted way to look

at it but it's an interesting

uh thing to consider

so

uh let's see what else we have here we

have uh nasdaq almost hitting that six

percent i want to zoom in on that six

percent there for a moment

oh yeah yep we're getting to that

uh look at that 309 65 was the low we

got to 309 80. yeah you know what's

really interesting is exxon mobil right

now is up 41

year to date that's wild and i mean

think about warren buffett's moves even

though he's buying the dip on things

like apple charlie munger have been

buying the dip on things like alibaba

they did substantially increase their

allocations to stocks in oil with big

moves into exxon mobil and occidental

petroleum

and both of those

quite stellar performances occidental

petroleum up 97

year-to-date while at the same time the

nasdaq year to date is down

22.7 percent

so hats off to warren buffett again with

the amazing positioning now

another piece of scary news just came in

u.s retail traffic on a week-over-week

basis is down 10.9 percent

u.s retail foot traffic fell 10.9

last week from a year earlier so year

over year right which is really

surprising because if you look at these

weak periods as in like seven day

periods and we're comparing to last year

we should really be thinking of seeing

increases substantially fewer covet

restrictions more enthusiasm to go out

and spend

is this potentially a beginning of the

cracking of the consumer that wait a

minute we could only take so much pain

in the stock market before we finally

start spending less what do we got

home improvement centers and furnishing

stores had a 24.8 percent decline in

retail traffic

and

off price uh had a decrease of 18 i

think these are usually like your tj

maxx kind of uh of stores

uh beauty was the only one that actually

had a gain with 5.6

5.4

any kind of malls and department stores

were down

15.1 percent

uh you have us retail traffic overall

again down 10.9 grocery stores down 5.9

and when you look at that's that's the

change year over year

which is odd and when you look at the

change week over week what do you get

also declines in

all categories double digits and a

double digit declines in all categories

with the exception of home improvement

centers and furnishings which were down

nine 6.9 week over week grocery store is

down nine point one percent week over

week so on some of this initial data

not such great uh changes here and just

retail in general now take a listen to

this victoria secret traffic down 47

year-over-year bed bath and beyond i'm

sorry 47 yeah 47 year-over-year week

over week 23 bed bath and beyond year

over year down 40

best buy down 36 year-over-year home

depot

26.6 year-over-year nordstrom

18.4 year-over-year decline target 17.4

year-over-year decline i don't know if

like obviously people aren't spending

more money online and if now all of a

sudden we're seeing retail spend go down

folks this is the recession this is

what it feels like to be in a recession

because now this is going to solidify

probably a bad q2 result unless

for some reason spending doesn't plummet

here in may in june it's kind of a

problem because remember q2 is april may

june well if you had good consumer

spending going into april but may and

june are terrible and we're going to lap

last year's summer forget about it you

got yourself a recession and quite

frankly we might end up being in a

recession all year long now

so far the suits tell us oh but don't

worry if we have a recession a it'll be

transitory and b it won't be that deep

yeah well recessions still hurt

two things we know about recessions

number one you can see layoffs within a

recession usually they don't lead a

recession right that's odd it usually

happens within a recession we're still

not seeing that in fact we're seeing a

lot of attempts to hire like crazy now

but you have these really mismatched

skill sets that that we're dealing with

this is something jay pal talked about

yesterday as well that one of the

reasons we have 1.9 open job slots uh

for every unemployed person is because

you have this skill mismatch between

what companies want to hire and and the

people who are available to work

so you've got you know no cracks

necessarily yet in terms of like layoffs

but that usually comes right after you

see retail spending go down and folks we

just got our first news that retail

spending went to crap here and i can't

justify that one away and it's not like

i'm trying to justify stuff away i just

want to give you my opinion of the

straight scoop i think those

productivity numbers are kind of garbage

this morning we talked about those i

don't think those really matter i think

they're important because they're going

to give us a beautiful upside next

quarter unless of course retail stops

spending then it's then you know who

knows maybe that's just a leading

indicator which usually it's not it's

quite a lagging indicator but the point

is there's a retail traffic move that's

scary and again if we're in a recession

now

what do you want to do

well as always you want to a make sure

you minimize your debt

clear out margin or have the capacity

for clearing out margin if you need to

like the last thing you want to do is

look at your brokerage account and go

there is no way

no way i can empty that kind of margin

that's bad

like for me uh i am we just did this

math with course members yesterday

as we went through my portfolio we were

doing peg weightings and that

uh

we are right now thanks to good old tax

day

i'm 2.6 in margin

but

closings that i have for some real

estate transactions are essentially

going to wipe my margin so i'm going to

be at zero

so that means i'm all in and then that

means i'm at zero then i've got a few

closings coming up after that in about

the next 30 days and i'll have that

money available to buy the dip which is

cool because

if we're in a recession in q2 we're

gonna keep seeing this sort of pain

for a while now hopefully the best thing

that we can hope for is that the federal

reserve actually sees inflation starting

to decline which i have to say this is

where maybe kathy woods

could end up being right

look and read that etsy and wayfair

earnings report a huge difference from

q1

in q1 every single earnings report i

read said we have pricing power we're

increasing prices we have multiple price

increases scheduled we are like and the

consumer's paying it

now what are you hearing from wayfair

and etsy oh

there big guy yeah we're not gonna raise

prices just to drop them you know what

we're gonna do is we're gonna keep our

prices stable and these executives are

trying to sell it as that as if that's a

good thing like oh well you know we're

one of the few who hasn't been raising

our prices this makes us more

competitive no it means you have no

pricing power and you suck

that's bad

that's very bad the only thing we have

left right now the only thing this

economy has left is the consumer

spending money

and the fact that retail traffic just

had its biggest drop since november of

2020

is very

bad

and is is something where again

get out of margin get out of debt if you

can't take it then don't be in the

market if you

are looking for a way to kind of like

separate your self and your emotions

from your stock portfolio you have to

look at the quantity and not the price

this is a very important concept of the

q versus the p how many shares of tesla

do i have today how many shares did i

have yesterday well i have more shares

of tesla today than i did yesterday so

for me

psychologically that means my portfolio

is actually up because i have more

quantity

obviously it's down but guess what i

ain't looking at it like i am not

looking at it actually it's been kind of

a wonderful thing when i go to place an

order with jpm because i still haven't

gotten off the platform uh you know and

i really like the people over at jpm

you know i uh i call in the order which

is like super antiquated but it's

actually like this really cool thing

because then i don't have to open up my

brokerage account and see how bad uh it

feels to be down 10 on tesla in a day oh

i'm sorry it's only down nine percent

but anyway this retail move

very very bad uh not good i don't know

if this is going to lead us to like

that's it is this like the worst of the

bad news like is this it if we keep

getting bad news obviously not we keep

going down but who knows maybe this is

just the news that we needed to get the

additional capitulation we rubber band

down below that zero percent fib maybe

we can come back up we'll see but i'll

tell you

i can't sugarcoat that retail data that

retail data is

bad

and you know there was there was this

thought that maybe it's just e-commerce

no

retail data is not e-commerce it's

literally consumer spending i'm just

going to read the list really quick

victoria's secret bed bath best buy ulta

lowe's home depot kohl's tj maxx

nordstrom old navy target publix

supermarkets ross stores walmart macy's

dollar general sephora gap aldi kroger

all of them

down literally every single one of them

so it's not just ecom now it's also

retail now that's really bad so what's

left travel

planes but who wants to be in those

indebted companies and then you know who

knows maybe people have their travel

plans booked but then they stop booking

new ones

2022 is the year of the recession folks

i think i think the bond market and i

hate to say it but i think the bond

market was right when we inverted when

the yield curve inverted on april 1st

and just like dude we we will have a

recession this year we'll get through it

we won't have a recession then in 2023

because you know we'll be lapping

horrible comps

and uh and then we'll have the pandemic

behind us

and if you could sit there and diamond

hand through on quality stocks

generally and i'm not trying to say that

profit losing companies are not quality

but

you know according to institutions they

don't want to own any company right now

that has a negative eps and so those are

the ones that are getting sold off the

most keep that in mind but uh

yeah big concerns these retail numbers

again like i want to be able to say

something positive

i mean beyond

uh buying the opportunity there's

nothing positive about it's it's bad

news so anyway

there's the news on retail numbers for

you oh but if you want to get life

insurance in as little as five minutes

remember you can do so by going to

medkevin.com life you can even apple pay

an android pay for it is exactly what

lord and i use check it out it's not in

the link down below but you could just

type in medkevin.com life