Exposing The Big Lie.

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it was all one big lie folks in five

years we are going to look back and go

this was the stupidest dumbest excuse

for a recession we have ever freaking

had because here's the thing

traditionally we're told oh well we go

into a recessionary inflation who are

the people that are supposed to get

screwed in an inflationary recession

well it's supposed to be the poor people

that's what the textbooks say because

the basic costs of living go up like gas

and food and that makes poor people

struggle yet what income group has had

the largest increase of pay

since 2019

you can't even compare folks you can't

even compare percentage-wise based on

the income increase we have seen for one

group because i remember working at

jamba juice and making eight dollars an

hour now

you with no skills can go work at amazon

pushing a button and make 20 bucks okay

it is insane poorer demographics the

lower demographics have seen the largest

pay increase since 2000 2019 and here's

the thing we keep hearing oh no we have

to spend more money right and that well

what about wealthy people i mean they

see their stock balances go down because

well the stock market uh you know it's

gotten hit and and you know

that's what we continue to hear so we

hear this idea that well poor people

should be able to spend less money

because uh minimum wage folks you know

have a higher percentage of their money

go to things like rent food and gas all

of which have been skyrocketing but we

forget the idea that oh

wait a second they're also the ones

who've gotten a substantial bump in pay

and this is not to poop on folks saying

it's not hard to have a higher gas tank

bill and stuff like that but when you

consider this

and then you consider oh but okay so

poor are supposed to spend less so the

consumers should be weaker on the poor

side right and then you compare this to

household net worth for people who own

stocks and you're like

oh well wait a minute wait a minute yeah

maybe maybe just maybe we did have a

little bit of a tick down there for

household net worth but

god damn i'd still rather be in 2020

than in 2019

okay like people's net worths are up

people's pay is up so on one hand we

keep getting told about how the consumer

is screwed that's it it's over the

consumer is wrecked they've got

absolutely no money they got supported

by the stemi checks now the stemi checks

are gone and they're broke and therefore

the consumer's gonna suck and all

consumer related stocks are screwed

maybe consumer staples will do better

but even those have started sucking as

inventories have built up it's like what

what is actually happening well let's

look at the reality of what's actually

happening two four two two important

things here number one media checking

account balances four week rolling

average every freaking income group

every single one is seeing their

checking balances go up not down in the

second in the second quarter of 2022

everybody is going up every single

income group i don't care if you're the

bottom 20 percent bottom 25 or the top

25 percent everybody is making money and

so i've been very confused because we

keep getting told that this recession is

going to be so devastating to people

that people got no more money

but then when you actually look at some

of the nuanced credit card data which

growth is declining in right like

compared to last year the growth curve

in spending looks like this but we have

to remember that this right here could

be 20 percent growth above and beyond

2021 it's still growth it's still

actually phenomenal growth so yeah we

have disc growth that's probably not

really a word but but growth that's

declining or growing at a slower rate

but look at this which we just got from

visa we just got this from visa this is

insane okay so yeah they talk about how

last year stimulus clearly drove ticket

sizes particularly in consumer

discretionary categories but look at

this folks this is where i say that's it

it's official we are in the absolute

richest recession that we will probably

have ever seen according to the history

books and what we will probably ever see

in our lifetimes so folks buckle up

because you're about to go through the

richest recession not the poverty

recession no the richest recession we

have ever seen and it's quite ridiculous

because everybody keeps talking about

all this freaking doom and gloom and the

more and more i look at the nuance the

more i'm like wait a minute it's a lie

because look at this this is visa vice

chairman and chief financial officer

yeah i mean going back to your question

on whether or not we're seeing any

slowdown in spending by lower income

consumers no we're not we keep looking

for it because we've heard some people

say it and we are not seeing any

evidence of that

your second question i presume was the

wealth effect on affluent customers

remember both sides of the dichotomy and

they couldn't mean a little left side

high tide top bottom right okay what's

happening in the stock market and things

like that i mean we're not seeing that

if anything affluent spending has been

on the rise and is one of the reasons

why we have seen some robust growth we

saw in the quarter remember we're

lapping a very significant growth

quarter last year driven by stimulus

that included sizable stimulus payments

and despite that we've had very good

growth this quarter driven by affluent

customers and discretionary spending

coming back and no evidence of the

wealth effect or that people are holding

back

so wait a minute wait a minute

this is the same thing that we're seeing

at

even though you got ceo of jpmorgan

chase jamie dimon saying oh we got a

hurricane coming it's going to be bad

some storm clouds over there are

building even though we got that kind of

garbage which is all starting to sound

like a big fabricated lie

jp morgan checking account balances are

up jp morgan's spending up

loan balances are up we got visa up amx

was like well we have a significant

platform of wealthy people blah blah

blah blah spending up

it doesn't matter folks you can't even

get visa to admit that inflation is

hurting their numbers i kid you not they

literally say right here that the

headline cpi numbers don't apply to visa

because our basket of goods isn't the

same consumers don't buy houses or used

cars with visa for example in other

words sure used cars may be blowing up

and rents may be going up but hey people

ain't pulling back on spending what

about that low income demographic take a

look at this

budget and mid-priced hotels saw modest

improvements we have seen no evidence of

a consumer pullback yet now there are

either two things going on here okay

there's either one or two things going

on either number one the consumer is

absolutely blind to the fact that we're

either in a recession or going into

recession and they're about to get

massively rug pulled when jerome powell

is like i don't care about the pow curve

he's going into a recession

and consumers are going to get

absolutely reamed or the consumers are

actually acting very rationally and

they're very smart and they're actually

looking at this and saying hey wait a

minute wait a minute we have more wealth

than we did in 2019 we're getting paid

way more per hour than we were in 2019

well the second time is sitting at home

still from 2020 let's go out there and

spend and folks the consumer might

actually be the leading indicator that

we don't give a crap about this

recession and so even though you got all

these talking heads on cnbc and

bloomberg going oh no

go to your recession prepare and all

this fear is leading people to build up

their their cash balances and sell

stocks or whatever maybe there's a

reason we're not actually seeing retail

capitulation we're not seeing retail

capitulation and we're not seeing

consumer individual fear and people are

still spending money because this

recession is a joke or a lie even though

we're in it it's not one we should be

afraid of and we should be looking at

stock market prices right now going well

damn thank you because this is the

weirdest recession ever not only do you

have the lowest rates of unemployment

jobs keep going up job openings are

still up sure we hear some murmurings of

layoffs and stuff but the jolts number

is still sitting at a level of 1.9 job

openings per unemployed person visa

mastercard city jp morgan wells fargo

bank of america all of them are talking

about how strong the consumer is yet

it's the talking heads telling us and

like the ceos of these companies go oh

but the hurricane winds are coming i

don't know it all just seems like one

big freaking lie because every single

report i read talks about how great and

strong the consumer is sure you've got

advertisers that are starting to freak

out a little bit you know ads are going

down like what google reported via

youtube

you know some advertisers are pulling

back but don't worry we're working on

monetizing shorts whatever

whatever for some reason there's

something weird going on here and it

might be that this recession whether it

happens or not is total bs and if you

haven't actually looked around and seen

that the consumer is still going nuts

spending money i've been traveling

more than i've ever traveled before this

year because it's like and i'm seeing

other people do the same thing and all

sorts of income demographics uh

i i don't actually see people in a

recession so even though we technically

might be i think that's the talking

heads creating fear so they can go by

cheaply and honestly i think uh in the

hashtag not financial advice i'm not

your prime financial advisor i can't

give you any advice but i think the best

thing for you to do is get serious about

looking at this market for good bargain

opportunities and go shopping because

all this big recession talk to me

whether it happens or not the actual

fear of it being like an 08 again or a

dot-com bubble or whatever is just one

big freaking why