Tesla Stock's Phase 2 is about to be NUTS [Watch Soon!]

what does this week have in store for

Tesla where is Tesla stock going where

does it sit valuation wise how does that

compare to Amazon what Catalyst do we

have this week a lot to talk about let's

get started right away first this is CPI

and I hate to say it fed week yeah

you've got jpow talking on July 9th and

10th in his semiannual report to

Congress we'll be covering the Tuesday

event uh maybe Wednesday depends how we

feel uh at 7:00 a.m. on the uh Market

live channel so if you're not subscribed

there yet just type into YouTube meet

Kevin Market live I'm live there every

morning at 5:25 thereabouts uh when the

market is open and we talk about the

market and trading or whatever so you're

welcome to join there it's totally free

uh and so we'll cover that annual set by

annual report from jpow at least on

Tuesday maybe also Wednesday though

usually Wednesday it's like the same

stuff just said again jpow could could

be a hit to potentially what happens

with interest rate sensitive stocks

though I just want to say I don't think

so on July 2nd we had cherp JP uh give a

discussion with Sarah Eisen at the ECB

Forum on Central Banking with Sarah

again Sarah Eisen did I just say her

name twice and um nothing happened it

was it was a large nothing Burger so I

wouldn't really worry so much about JP I

really don't think we're going to get

anything really interesting out of the

Federal Reserve that'll Shake people in

their boots uh at the very least until

July 31st by July 31st we'll actually

have more data we'll have another CPI

report we'll have another PPI report

we'll have another pce report we'll have

a lot more data uh and with that data I

think the Federal Reserve will begin to

steer do we think a rate cut could be

coming in September is a rate cut on the

table in September or not the beginning

of rate Cuts obviously being heavily

associated with Tesla because Tesla is

an interest rate sensitive stock so as

rates go down more people buy the

vehicles this is why when we had a model

y promotion and you could get a Tesla

Model y for what was it 1.99% these

things flew off the shelf in Q2 however

production slowed down so Tesla right

now doesn't offer these lower interest

rates we'll fact check that quickly as

we uh film this video live right now uh

Tesla isn't offering those sort of rates

right now presumably because they need

production to catch up so many people

picked up their Teslas they got to and

they didn't produce as many they got to

pick up production again uh so uh in

other words I I think in Q3

you'll actually end up seeing a little

bit of a hit to cash flow whereas in Q2

you could have a really glorious Q2 uh

earnings report which comes out on July

23rd so I'm pretty optimistic about the

earnings report now looking at their

website no interest rate offers right

now still

629 uh for a model y not too terribly

much of a surprise though so the

Catalyst that we have this week though

uh do include CPI and PPI CPI is

expected to come in at 0.1 month over

Monon core at 0. 2 Morgan Stanley thinks

it'll come in a little higher at 0 27

but won't really matter because these

numbers are so low CPI year-over-year 31

34 for core year-over-year

look the markets aren't even really

trading inflation anymore I've noticed

maybe about the last two months uh April

and May of inflation data that have come

out markets didn't really move much at

all it's so sort of almost like we

looked at the multivariant core

inflation read uh and uh we saw that

inflation was really just a blip in 2024

that sort of January February rise

inflation has already been well offset

to the downside if you want to see that

visually take a look on screen now you

can see here we had this nice downtrend

of inflation in 2022 2023 you get that

jump right here at the beginning of 24

which JP said hey you know the first

quarter we think will just uh you know

be a little warm and it'll be down from

there well it wasn't wrong so far it's

down from there and it's lower than

where it was previously on the

multivariate core Trend uh and keep in

mind a lot of the sectors uh of

inflation that are still hot or your

typical car insurance health insurance

and Rental housing sectors all of those

massively lagging indicators for

inflation so so really the inflation

story is actually a good thing for Tesla

rate Cuts coming are a good thing for

Tesla though I I honestly I don't think

that you know a quarter to half% rate

cut is going to make much of a a

difference for affordability uh we we

all we do have two full rate Cuts priced

in for this year with uh the first cut

fully priced in in November and about an

82% chance of getting a cut in September

uh so then we do have pce this a month

sorry actually this a week as well uh

sorry not PC PPI ppi is expected to come

in pretty nominally 0.1 on the month of

month point2 year-over-year uh 2.3 and

2.5 on year-over-year core both those

last two numbers that slightly higher

than the previous month but a lot of

analysts on Wall Street saying the

numbers of uh of last month are expected

to be lower than this month and and

that's okay they're already anticipating

that a little bit of a higher read this

month will be okay as you don't see as

much of a flow through from a drop in

Airline pricing and used vehicle pricing

whatever point is the market is

basically saying we think inflation will

come in low but we're also already aware

that if it comes in a little higher

we're already comfortable with that so

I'm really not seeing a negative

inflationary Catalyst this week for

Tesla if anything these should all be

tailwins uh for Tesla stock this week uh

as and and I don't think the Federal

Reserve will be much of a big uh hoo-ha

at all now as far as Tesla on a

volatility scale look we called the

bottom of the Tesla volatility and and

we suggested that Tesla stock would

generally rise on average about

1.9% per day and in the days following a

volatility bottom we made that video I

think it was Tesla stocks about to

explode I don't we made a bunch of

videos on it and we started with the

course member live stream which we've

briefly extended uh the sale on that

just this there's a lot going on with

people on holiday or whatever this we're

going to push this into next week so if

you want to join the courses on Building

Wealth link down below meetkevin.com

email us at staff meetkevin.com if you

have bundle up questions but the bottom

of volatility was June 7th and uh we saw

that volatility move pretty rapidly uh

essentially within the last couple weeks

here as pricing has moved up right now

volatility for Tesla is actually

somewhat mid-range so you're roughly in

line with the 30-day average volatility

we still haven't seen the massive Spike

of volatility you would expect to get uh

following such a low I do think we're

going to end up getting that Spike and

it could come with earnings because I

actually think these earnings will be

pretty good I generally don't like

playing earnings but the the going

forward Ward period here in terms of

excitement for Tesla is is all about

hype around 88 uh people keep sending me

messages like Kevin what what you know

what do you think about the uh ex CEO of

uber potentially being hired uh and that

being announced on the robo taxi event

you know it's literally every single

time there's a Tesla event people are

like oh my gosh but Kevin what do you

think what if they do this and whether

they do or don't the stock just goes

down after buy the rumor sell the news

move so I just want to set expectations

that I do think the hype cycle is just

getting started for Tesla we'll talk

valuation just a moment uh but uh and I

actually think that July 23rd's earnings

will accelerate that hype cycle because

see what you're going to get on July

23rd is not delivery numbers because we

already know that it's not margins

because of course we're going to get

those but we don't actually think those

will be bad it's not going to be cash

flow because we we don't expect that to

be bad like these these things should

all be good it's actually going to be

hype from Elon Elon is going to Hype the

crap out of the 88 event come on baby

this is the time to do it it's the a you

know even if they're just subtle little

hints and teases as to what might happen

he is going to Hype 88 so really I think

while it's possible Tesla stock keeps

moving over this next week mostly what I

think on you know no news from jpow and

good inflation data uh in just sort of

in line with the trend that we tend to

see with Tesla it's possible that you

take a a little bit of a breather on the

stock price uh but once you get to July

23rd I think between July 23rd and 88

the stock probably goes up substantially

so I don't know that you necessarily

want to be out of Tesla stock between

now and then and here's why I don't

think 88 is mainstream yet I don't think

most people on Wall Street or Main

Street are really aware uh that there's

this big

like robot taxi event coming

uh I think that realization will hit

frankly in like the week before so after

Elon Hypes it on earnings and then sort

of like the week to two weeks before the

event that's when you could really

potentially get to sort of peak

Euphoria now when it comes to valuation

valuations you get a little on a

stretchy side you're sitting at right

now about a

102.2 4 PE ratio that's using uh a126 of

projected earnings per share which is

pretty low

uh that's uh hold on let me make sure I

have that right uh because that that

seems a little off uh let's see here

we've got and then we're going to do a

PEG ratio analysis on this uh sorry it's

$2 uh 46

$246 of projected EPS uh for Tesla which

if I take

$246 and I divide it by 250 or 251

divided by $246 yeah I get to 102 PE

ratio so the 102 is right so your 102 is

the PE ratio with $246 of projected EPS

for year

end uh and then you've got a

32.6% projected growth in that earnings

level for each of the next four years on

average that's how I like to calculate

my pegs I don't like to use the growth

rate of the last year I like to use the

four years ahead and if I divide that in

I get to a PEG ratio of about

3.16 it's pretty high typical

manufacturer would probably be around

1.67 but it's not some of the craziest

figures you know we've seen for Tesla

and that's actually why I think you're

going to just now start frankly uh

leading up to the roboox event a period

of euphoria in other words I think the

Stock's just going to go straight up I'm

going to explain why let's look at

Tesla's PE and Peg and all that good

stuff the last time it hit all-time

highs so we're going to go all the way

back here on the good old Weeble and uh

take a look here uh this right here is

our all-time high figure right

$414 man those were the days huh uh

anyway that that was pretty dang high

and that was October no sorry November

November 4ish of 2021 pretty dang crazy

right uh and then take a look over here

oh uh this is just a uh meetkevin.com

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Mastermind uh we'll get you on a call

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and a lot of folks have been really

interested in that has been actually

incredible how many folks have been

interested in it but it's it's fine we

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check that out meetkevin.com Mastermind

okay so 414 was our top at the end of

2021 our year end 2021 EPS was

a162 so 414 rounding there a little bit

divided by a162 put us at

255 times price to earnings that shows

you the Euphoria of of Tesla at that

given time and now the growth rate for

the next four years you ready for that

125% that's more than a double then

29% 35.394891

this 55% growth rate you are actually

trading oh I get a tire when I do 255

divided by 55 I get a tire here we go

you actually get a p a PEG ratio of

4.63 okay so a PEG ratio of

4.63 at the top holy

smokes that compares to where we sit now

at just

3.1 uh six H okay you ready for some

crazy math so in order to reverse what

Tesla's price would be at Peak Euphoria

by the robotaxi event watch this this is

crazy we're going to take previous Peak

Euphoria of

4.63 is a PEG ratio and then we're going

to set that equal to the PE Ratio

divided by growth that's just the

formula for Peg right right side is what

the peg was then left side is the

formula for Peg okay we know growth

today going forward for 4 years is

32.6 okay fine so to clean this formula

up we're just going to uh go to the uh

right side here and multiply by

32.6 and go ahead and get rid of that

and then I have a fraction over here of

X over

2.46 so I'll just multiply by 2.46 oh

look what we get to x equals a very

simple equation because we now go oops

there we go price which is x equal 4.63

*

32.6 uh time 2.46 which is hallelujah

$371 that my friends is Peak Euphoria it

is a highly

unsustainable number that valuation is

ridiculous and it's stupid it should not

be trading for that in the near term in

the longterm it can grow into that sort

of valuation what kind of valuation is

fair and reasonable today this my

friends this is exactly the same

spreadsheet that I last modified in my

Tesla's about to explode video before it

exploded in fact if you go to the bottom

of it you'll see right here uh I write

uh present value of Tesla stock $180 so

we did this analysis when the stock was

$180 and I said look I think it's very

reasonable

uh for the stock to start pricing in 25

million vehicles to maybe 3 million

Vehicles by the end of 2026 and as we

know the stock market likes to price in

the next 18 months ahead oh my gosh

that's the end of 2026 and look at what

our fundamental analysis said oh oh my

gosh the absolute lowest end would be

189 which suggested we were essentially

at the bottom uh but the more reasonable

Figures were between 200 27 to 275 and

that's only based on a

1.67 PEG ratio at 32.5% growth which is

roughly where we sit so the the price of

Tesla stock just went from below

reasonable to reasonable but now that it

has gone on that trajectory and we're

about to go into the 88 hype cycle we

have a real shot of going into true

Euphoria and while at the same time you

have companies like Nvidia going through

a cycle of euphoria the cues are at

alltime freaking highs uh and we're

pricing in the future of raid Cuts

coming in here I think it's pretty

reasonable to assume this stock is about

to get carried away with a substantially

excessive valuation which don't get me

wrong that's wonderful and I want to

hold it because right here this is the

SP

where I think you buy it you're paying a

reasonable price for Tesla roughly right

now and and I understand it's it's we're

pre- pricing

in 18 months out right because we

mentioned earlier that hey you know the

current Peg is about 3.16 it's a little

expensive right now but again we're pre-

pricing in the end of 2026 because at

the end of 2026 we think EPS will be

about $450 8 okay let's write that down

uh so we go current pricing $251 divid

$458 puts us at about a

54.8 on the PE Ratio divide that by

about a 1.67 peg there you go 32.5%

growth so the math lines up that what

you're paying today is basically pricing

in the end of

2026 very reasonable for stocks to do

that I I don't think it's it's horribly

unusual

ual it's it's possibly a little bit

stretchy already because you're not

really you know what are you going to

grow into in the next uh 18 months

fine as far as though this next month

and two days for Tesla stock I think you

could get to a period of absolute Peak

Euphoria and now I want you to see the

technicals the downside support for

Tesla is

$231 that's your 2 and half year

downtrend

$231 that's this um orange line right

here the next stop which I suspect we're

going to test this week uh is actually

right here at

$258 I think this is a critical point

for Tesla and I actually don't think

it's that hard of a point for Tesla to

test I think 258 will get blown by uh I

don't see this as much of an issue at

all volume while it did slow uh on

Thursday in Frid well I guess it' be

Wednesday and Friday uh it's still

almost double the volume that we've seen

before this run really started uh which

this run hasn't been going for that long

it's only been you know 8 days now so I

think breaking 258 is easy mode uh this

is you know we might we might hit 258

get a little bit of a rejection clear

the order book boom you're above it we

already did the hard one clearing the

250 uh order book is hard I think an

easy price Target easy price Target

between now and roboox a day

$295 now do I think we will actually

make it to 371 which would be sort of

like your pq4

level ah I don't know things would have

to just be perfect and the momentum and

the story would just have to be so juicy

it's possible but between now and

October 8th I would say 295 to

371 anywhere in between there that's

what I'm looking at uh and so I do think

that with volatility still priced

mid-range you're not paying an

unreasonable valuation for

options uh I think you have a safety net

that is about 10% below you that uh that

231 level but the upside this is what we

call an asymmetric BET right the upside

let's do 371 minus 295 76 bucks uh

divided by two I'm trying to get the

midpoint here between these two so let's

divide that by two we got 38 so 371

minus 38

333 so that would be the average upside

my take 333 divided by 251 that's an

upside of 32% so you have a

3:1 upside bet here between now and

robotx E day my take now is it possible

that something crazy like the the model

2 or whatever is announced at the robotx

event yeah sure is it likely no but

anyway uh that's my take so if you want

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being here and goodbye oh now for those

of you that made it this far quickly on

Amazon Amazon's valuation is only a 178

Peg which frankly for a manufacturer

that'd be pretty good 167 being your

typical AV uh average but there's so

much more than that I mean you've got

ads data centers uh yeah I me you name

it they the production Studios this is a

pretty incredible company they get a

pretty fair valuation so I'm pretty long

Amazon right now pretty excited about

them uh anyway thank you so much for

watching see you soon can not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

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