What Nvidia Earnings JUST Said [WOW!] Nvidia Stock Analysis & Tesla.

well Nvidia just reported earnings and

as many expected they smashed but in

this video we got to talk about how much

they smashed and we got to talk about

the next chip after Blackwell yeah the

earnings call was left off with the

Cliffhanger of what's next so let's talk

about nvidia's valuation what was said

how this competes potentially with Tesla

and everything you got to know about the

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Nvidia okay this was absolutely

remarkable first of all revenue is up

3.6x this is not percent X year over

year cost of Revenue is only up 2.2x

that means gross profit was literally up

4X their net income at the company Net

Income was up

7.2x like the absolute explosion in

money that they are creating is

absolutely

insane I want you to compare Nvidia to

Tesla for a moment now keep in mind

Tesla is a manufacturer Nvidia is just a

designer big difference TSM manufactures

a lot of the Nvidia chips Nvidia

generated

$5.7

billion in free cash flow in 3 months

that means they generated more free cash

flow in literally one month than Tesla

did in the entire year of 2020 3 see in

q1 Tesla had -2.5 billion of free cash

flow free cash flow 2023 was $4.3

billion and in

2022 it was $8.5 billion so near Tesla's

Peak Nvidia still doubled Tesla's free

cash flow in just one quarter that took

Tesla a year at Peak which is remarkable

now again Tesla is a manufacturer I just

want you to see it's not to talk down on

Tesla it's just to show you the scale of

the cash that Nvidia is generating it's

it's really hard to imagine unless you

compare it to other companies the money

they're making is absolutely insane now

you would expect that okay well if we're

generating that much certainly their

costs uh have gone up like what they're

spending on selling and general and

administrative expenses those costs

would probably Skyrocket

right no they didn't in fact that's

what's remarkable their costs on

research and development were up a whole

whopping 45% their costs on sgna were up

15.8% their total Opex was only up 39%

while their gross profit

4X there is no question this company is

a cash flow machine they are cranking

growth and it is no surprise the stock

is now at

$1,000 not only did they announce a 10

for one stock split but they moved their

dividend from4 to 10 cents that means

the future share will have a 1-cent

dividend see 10 cents divided by 10 get

it because we're doing a 10 for one

stock split that means at $11,000 you

get a 10-cent dividend that'll be paid

out June 28th to anybody who holds the

shares as of June 11th uh you'll get 10

cents on $1,000 share or you'll get one

penny for 10 shares uh at $100 a piece

depending on obviously what Nvidia is

trading for at that time remember stock

splits don't change any of the

fundamentals for the company but they do

make the stock psychologically more

affordable a lot of people don't know

about fractional trading so often times

people think oh when a stock split is

announced that means the Stock's going

to go up and often times that can be

true but this video isn't about

analyzing stock splits it's about

telling you about the fundies the

fundamentals so understand wall Street's

forecast here Wall Street is forecasting

$25 of earnings per share for the Year

this pretty much a lines with q1 anyway

because if I just take their diluted EPs

and multiply it by four so I annualize

it I get about $24 of earnings per share

anyway now the problem is wall Street's

forecasts for NVIDIA right now are not

that great next year out they're only

forecasting earnings to grow 24% the

year after that 10% the year after that

88.8% the year after that they're

expecting earnings to shrink by 3% the

reason is at some point the scurve of

growth slows and you hit that flatter

side where you're no longer able to sell

$7,000 h100 chips for $35,000 because

there's a huge shortage of chips this is

why Nvidia is now getting onto a cycle

of Chip refreshes which they expect will

be very rapid they expect to have a new

h100 style chip basically every year I

mean we already went from the h100 GPU

to the h200 that's the Grace Hopper 100

to the Grace Hopper 200 now we're for

Blackwell Blackwell is ramping in Q2

that's now mind you so we're

manufacturing Blackwell right now we're

expecting Blackwell to start shipping in

Q3 and be installed in up and running in

Q4 UBS analysts per or I should say via

Barons suggests that the Blackwell chips

will actually be functional in December

a little bit later than the October

previously expected but still this year

and Jensen suggested there will be a lot

of Blackwell Revenue that the company

will be able to recognize this year so

that's a good thing something else

that's really good is not only do they

expect to have new Chips every single

year it's kind of like going from the

iPhone 14 to the iPhone 15 and hopefully

you get massive performance enhancement

like for example Blackwell compared to

h100 is supposed to be able to perform

four times as fast in a more power

efficient manner but at some point we're

probably going to get to that point

where we're like what's the difference

between the iPhone 14 and 15 oh not much

and I think that's what Wall Street is

starting to try to Snuff out it's like

once we have this revolution done what's

the forward growth and the average

forward growth here is only about 10% on

earnings per share over the next four

years now the cash flow is still massive

for the company but at the

valuation you now push the company to a

foreg which since they're a designer you

could say maybe they should be worth as

much as a SAS business maybe maybe I

don't know if you could do that because

you don't really get recurring Revenue

you have to sell that product over and

over and over again so which maybe once

you get people into the system you could

say that but still four Peg price

earnings growth little on the pricey

side for the valuation but that has not

stopped the stock from skyrocketing

again to roughly $1,000 at the time of

this uh recording although you could see

it did drop after earnings right back to

that 969 line now I'm a big fan of

drawing lines and technical analysis uh

today we traded uh end phase I sent

alerts on end phase trades I don't

guarantee you can make money with these

trades I don't promise that they're

always going to be functional or that

I'll always make money but let's just

say this year so far on a million-dollar

trading account I'm up over

$800,000 in realized profits trading uh

just today I'm up $84,000 and I traded

$15,000 $35,000 and $50,000 so basically

even if you added that all together it

was a rough double today which is really

really cool so knock on wood that that

continues but my whole point of doing

these exercises is to train you and

teach you how to trade yourself so you

could set the lines yourself so you can

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ATM kevin.com now something else that

was really interesting about nvidia's uh

earnings Set uh was their discussion on

Automotive so they had a 177% jump in

automotive revenues and those Automotive

revenues were driven by self-driving

this is what they told us in the

earnings call they said year on year

growth was driven by self-driving

technology and a lot of people look at

Nvidia and they say well how is NVIDIA

going to have anywhere near as much

success as Tesla in full self-driving

technology if they don't have as much

data and so what I did is I went through

the slideshow of uh nvidia's webinar on

uh artificial intelligence driving and

uh training of artificial intelligence

systems and really what the company does

as you can see on screen here what they

basically do is they do a lot of work

with simulations so they collect a small

amount of data and then they use

simulations to basically 10x the size of

that data and really work out those Edge

case scenarios not on the road with

drivers but in the Nvidia software stack

and so they pitch that you could use the

Nvidia dgx cloud a serverless AI SAS

platform basically

uh so that Automotive companies can

basically train their model

substantially faster than competitors

and they do a lot of this training

virtually now I have no idea how

successful that actual kind of

simulation and training is but they

argue that it's actually better than

real world data because you can really

cycle those Edge case scenarios over and

over and over again and something that

I've always wondered is what happens

when you put a Tesla with a driver in a

rough situation well the driver just

takes over it

disengages and now you have to use the

driver actually driving and you kind of

lose the car trying to learn right

because the driver drove over took over

whereas with simulations the car could

crash and then learn oh don't do that uh

now in theory you could basically say

that a driver takeover is kind of like a

crash but that doesn't work well either

because sometimes just to turn the

system off because you want to go a

different direction you take over that

could send some red flags to the

training system so this is interesting I

don't know how much of a comp

competition that's going to be but I

know that their revenues are blowing up

at Nvidia uh and uh and this is going to

be a competitor for companies like Tesla

in the future an interesting chart here

as well was that they chart that cost

for training autonomous vehicles AVS

goes up over time rapidly while progress

flattens out substantially over time I

found that to be very very uh very very

interesting uh so very cool uh and so

they talk about Edge case scenarios for

the critical finding the most critical

scenarios to test so real driving to

find the edge case scenarios and then

using those Edge case scenarios to run

over and over simulations on very very

interesting now there's this company

called vertiv that a lot of people have

gotten very excited about I think the

stock the Ticker on that is

VRT and a lot of people are excited

about investing in VT I'm not exposed to

it know none of this is personalized

Financial advice obviously it's just

education perspective but a lot of

people are interested in this it's a

smaller company that provides liquid

cooling exposure Blackwell is a system

that could be cooled either with air

cooling or liquid cooling and so a lot

of people are looking at verti stock as

a potential here I think the valuation

you know the expectations are a little

high on vert's growth that they're going

to grow earnings per share by 25%

year-over-year for the next four years

after this year I think that's a little

rich and their margins are pretty low

you know net somewhere around 10 to 13%

not anywhere close to the crazy margins

that Nvidia has in the cash flow Nvidia

has I mean frankly if you look at the

revenue that Nvidia has we could just

look at it right here we'll go to the

iPad quickly uh iPad we'll go to the

income statement here it is yeah just

look at the margins here so first of all

on gross profit the gross profit margin

at Nvidia it should be like 76% if I got

that right 78 .3% and their net income

14881 so 14.88 one billion into 26 on

rev puts you at a

57% net margin they make five times as

much money at the bottom line than a

company like verv on a margin basis so

it's kind of like you made a 100 bucks

you kept 57 that's amazing uh so that's

why Nvidia is so popular and people love

it and people are looking for the next

Nvidia but the next Nidia might be

Nvidia something to keep in mind is they

really only grew about 5.4% between Q4

and q1 but Q4 is usually a big quarter

so growing off of Q4 is actually pretty

big and they're forecasting

7.69% growth into the next quarter which

is pretty good I mean that's that's

fantastic growth that this company is

pulling off a lot of folks say that's

already priced into uh the stock though

okay continuing on we've got uh Nvidia

talking about how they helped Tesla get

to 35,000 h100 chips Blackwell is in

full production they're releasing the

next version of Nvidia Drive Thor

powered by Blackwell when it comes out

which will replace Orin and companies

like byd and xping in China are expected

to use that in production Vehicles

starting next year so you could have

full self-driving competition from

Nvidia as soon as next year assuming

their simulation based approach Works

versus the Tesla re driving approach uh

although I think Nvidia uses a

combination it's both uh simulation and

real driving which Tesla does as well

but obviously there are many more Teslas

on the road uh then uh we got uh some

comments on how China has gotten a lot

more competitive now due to the limits

on Nvidia technology and really in you

know um revenue from China has become

less important for for a company like

Nvidia anyway the biggest excitement

obviously came uh not not only as a

result of Microsoft announcing co-pilot

plus PC as a way to sort of reinvigorate

PC sales because Nvidia also saw GPU

sales going down for desktop

workstations that's a fancy way of

basically saying hey yo there are more

layoffs in finance and Tech so less

people are buying

computers Microsoft Plus co-pilot might

sort of accelerate some of that RTX

adoption again and help Invidia get out

of that uh PC recession so to speak but

really this has become a fraction of

income of their income anyway and it's

really these server chips that are

moving big now something else that I was

worried about was the inventory buildup

for uh Nvidia and if they would take any

kind of inventory write down I did not

see anything to indicate that there was

an inventory write down on the value of

h100s uh so I think that fear is

reasonably allayed for now unless I've

missed it uh and their inventory did

actually grow by 11% year-over-year I'm

sorry uh this is quarter over quarter

yeah quarter over quarter inventory grew

11% so I'm not really seeing any kind of

inventory markdowns or right Downs on

Nvidia uh due to you know fear over a

more price competition for the h100s I

do see price reductions on companies

like ASA that sell these chips or on

eBay you can get these chips for like 28

grand now still a significant premium

over the 7K that they should probably be

retailing for but uh they're getting it

because there is demand for them and why

Amazon didn't want to buy more h100s and

just wait for the black weld does

somewhat signal a little bit of a

Slowdown in AI demand but not from a

company like snowflake snowflake had

128% net revenue retention uh 485

customers with 12mon Revenue over $1

million each and quite frankly the

numbers were really impressive at

snowflake too I posted them over here

you can see them at ec.com 34% growth on

gross profit 20 1% growth on sales and

marketing so you had growth's profit

grow more than sales and marketing uh

and uh they are still losing a lot of

money and a company like snowflake was

the sort of Big Data before AI I wrote I

I believe that obviously uh they worked

with big data that's always what they've

been about and they beat forecast so

they did well here stocks only up about

3.8% and afters but these are the

companies that are really going to be

operating in using the server solutions

that Nvidia provides Nvidia suggests

that if you spend $1 on an Nvidia chip

you should be able to earn about $7 in

API Revenue over the next four years I

think that's a little bit of a lofty

expectation especially since they gave a

shout out to uh stable diffusion uh the

uh company that runs stable diffusion is

called stability Ai and I actually wrote

a piece on ec.com about how stability AI

is not actually stable per the

information they raised $101 million at

a$1 billion valuation in

2022 uh they did make some money but

then all of a sudden the CEO resigned

now the 180 person company might be sold

they have $100 million in bills to pay

and they had a net loss of $30 million

in q1 and they might be out of cash so

in other words the company that created

stable diffusion which is known for uh

image generation uh I put a little

explanation here it's it's I'll I'll try

to give a very brief explanation of how

stable diffusion works but the point is

uh the company that created this might

be going bankrupt now that's not to say

that the technology will go away but it

just shows the challenges of actually

earning Revenue with AI versus how easy

it is to sell AI gpus frankly to

companies that could use those AI gpus

stable diffusion quickly uh basically

what it does uh and this is very very

annoying and complicated to explain and

I'm probably going to screw it up but

I'm going to try to explain it like I'm

explaining it to a 5-year-old it takes a

picture of a cat let's say or a picture

of something we know it's a cat and then

it adds noise over and over and over

again and it basically makes the picture

very very very noisy and uh the idea is

when you in the future type in hey give

me a picture of a cat it'll first

generate a picture of okay a cat should

have a noise pattern that looks like

this now let's undo the noise and and

reverse the process to try to come up

with a picture of what you've asked for

for so it's really weird uh I'm not

going to go into that any further but

this is just an example of how like an

AI software company that's basically

coding and encoding uh AI images using

AI uh server Stacks is actually losing

money despite having a pretty novel

concept so hence why I think you know

there's some some hopium built into

those sort of AI software revenues now

would I probably rather invest in Nvidia

than a software company like stable

diffusion

almost certainly am I invested in Nvidia

right now yes I have exposure to Nvidia

and uh I'm not short Nvidia I had no

options I had no plays on this earnings

call but I am long Nvidia and uh that

reminds me I got to thank again our

sponsor for this video coinbase

metkevin.com coinbase to learn more

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metkevin.com coinbase I'll link it down

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check out that stocks and site group uh

for my trade alerts so uh that you could

see how I trade and the goal is to make

money of course it is not a guarantee it

is to share perspective and past results

do not guarantee future results so uh do

let's now just sort of look on a TA

basis here first of all is it bullish

that the company is doing a stock split

yes uh second of all where are we

sitting on the fibs well we're about to

move up on the fibs we're about to break

through a ,000 so it's going to put us

here if we open up here tomorrow it is

possible that we could get to the FIB

extension level of uh

$1,116 so if you're looking to go YOLO

on this it is possible that $100 calls

could be interesting uh although it's

also possible that you get a sell down

on Nvidia tomorrow uh as as people sort

of digest what we've heard in the

earnings call and in the earnings

reports so this is an overview on this

company and uh and and what just

happened with uh Nvidia what just

happened with uh their earnings and some

uh some things to consider so these are

my perspectives uh personally I probably

won't play any kind of longer term YOLO

here I'm totally willing to hold the

stock though I don't think I'll trim my

position on the stock uh but and if I

did it would only be you know to keep it

to like buy another opportunity I

thought or to keep it in balance with a

diversified portfolio you don't want it

to get too overweight since obviously

it's going up uh but other than

that I don't know that there's much of a

play for me here what I might do is

tomorrow in trading I might be

interested in trading some of the

derivatives which are going to be

basically stocks that move as a reaction

to this like for example arm or super

micro computer or maybe even uh verive

uh but only as trades I I don't

anticipate as Longs uh I don't

really like arm from a fundamental basis

and I don't really care for the

manufacturing companies like verti and

super micro I much prefer just Nvidia

directly over those but that's my

personal opinion that doesn't make them

bad companies uh that's just my opinion

anyway hopefully this is useful to you

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at meetkevin.com shout out to those of

you who joined within uh the last bit

here Andrew David uh Jay Devin Luis

Marcos thank you so much for joining

just within the last hourish here really

appreciate you there's some others of

you as well I can't pronounce all these

names sorry but anyway love you all I

got to go thank you so much and now

we're going to play my outro music go

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than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market maker

this Line's pretty important if you're

watching Bitcoin you better have it

drawn uh it's uh the $69,000 line we

can't keep going back to it and uh

obviously way up over the last few weeks

here I'm surprised coin isn't up more

than it is and then you've got ethereum

here on enthusiasm over the potential

ethereum ETF sitting at that 3764 line

also pretty critical level thanks y'all

we'll see you in the next one goodbye

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in CR go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin o great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailor to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any

third-party content I show shall not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a sec security or

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promoted products are either paid

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